Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EverettRuess]

Hello ioquitor. It’s mostly dependant on

1. The trailer profile
2. The speed you tow at.

Weight has less to do with it. We tow a teardrop trailer with a model Y and we take about a 50 percent range hit. But it was about the same with our old Jeep Grand Cherokee. The model Y is a much better towing experience though.

View attachment 993795

I thought about towing, but the setup in the picture won't go where I want to go. A CyberTruck will work with a popup camper. Check out Space Campers. But the major problem for me is a lack of superchargers in the rural areas of the intermountain west which is where I spend the most time.

 

[scaesare]

If you've ever wanted to build your own roadster from scratch or repair an existing one you can do so now.

If you want to build a new company that just does that you can (not that it'd be easy even with the documentation)

All design & engineering of the original @Tesla Roadster is now fully open source.Whatever we have, you now have.

https://service.tesla.com/roadster

Spoiler: shall not be named

View attachment 993170

Kinda funny/sad that, as far as many traditional automakers are behind on EV's, they might be better off just starting with Tesla's 15+ year old design....

 

[dhanson865]

This isn't a line to buy a Cybertruck today, this is a line to either just look at it or look at it and be added to a waiting list.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728545629037842578

 

[jw934]

My list of reasons $TSLA will be up in 2024.

$7500 instant tax refund on purchase(vs current $7500 year end tax refund)
FSD V12
Refreshed Model 3 - all trims, at increased margin
Opening of Superchargers leading to greater brand recognition and sales
New Model 3 Performance for speed enthusiasts
CyberTruck
40% increase in production volume, More factory refresh
Ramp up 4680 cell production (batteries for Cybertruck)
xAI (grok) in every Tesla (voice personal assistant), investment in xAI
Model Y announced in Jan 2024 as the best selling car in the world for 2023 increases recognition
Tesla Energy increase in both revenue and margin by leaps and bounds
Macro condition leading to reduction in interest rate
Pent up demand later in 2024 for new EVs from lost ICE sale during late 2023/early 2024
More government announcements on phasing out of gas vehicles
More young people getting their drivers license and getting their dream car
Progress update on Optimus humanoid robot
Production ramp up of Tesla semi
Reveal of compact car and robo taxi
Progress of Tesla Mexico
Sale starts in India after reduction in import duties, and other countries

 

[dhanson865]

I'm looking forward to a cybertruck bump on TSLA in the coming days/weeks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I truly don't get why this is a big deal, except in the Supercharger Desert. I've been stuck more than once when the power was out in the area the Supercharger was located (of course, gas cars couldn't fill up either, but many could drive to the next town). A 500 mile range would have really helped me on more than one instance...

... or Megapacks to back up the grid at those Supercharger sites which are 200 miles from the nearest ones.

 

[Artful Dodger]

test drives won't sell more trucks as we're already past 36 months production sold". So no, I think for the most part, it will be first ordered, first served.

Hmm, interesting implications, if the sales associate (SA) is correct:

• at max 250K/yr CT prod rate, that implies the backlog is over 750K, or
• alternatively at 200K/yr, that imples a 600K backlog
• if only 90K in 2024 (per Brian White) then 200K, that implies 500K backlog

So the above may mean there were substantial cancellations in the order book earlier this month when Tesla told speculators they wouldn't be cashing in on their (sometimes up to 100) pre-orders / reservations for CT. This is good.

Alternately, if we assume 1 or 2M existing reservations, that may impact the total production capacity Tesla builds (the underlying idea is that each GA line is a module w. 250K/yr rated capacity)

• 90K (2024) + 250K (2025) +500K (2026) = 850K cumulative production by 2027, before the backlog is cleared and 500K/yr capacity, or
• 850K (2026) + 750K (2027) = 1.5M cumulative production in 2028, and 750K/yr capacity
• ie: Tesla builds out production capacity until it matches demand

This implies that 2 or 3 GA lines produce CT variants in this order:

• tri-motor (beast mode)
• dual-motor (350 mile range)
• single motor (Std Rge @ $40K in 2019 dollars is ~48K in 2023)

Cybertruck will be a major product in N. America, and will shake the business models of Ford, GM, and RAM to their (ICE)core. This is also good.

FWIW, I think the tri-motor CT will be under $80K to squeek under the IRA limit ($8K vinyl wraps and $12K FSD software FTW). Also, I think dual-motor will be $62K given inflation (Gary Black hopes for $60K).

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

My list of reasons $TSLA will be up in 2024.


More young people getting their drivers license and getting their dream car

slipping in the low key troll.

 

[dhanson865]

Hmm, interesting implications, if the sales associate (SA) is correct:

• at max 250K/yr CT prod rate, that implies the backlog is over 750K, or
• alternatively at 200K/yr, that imples a 600K backlog
• if only 90K in 2024 (per Brian White) then 200K, that implies 500K backlog

So the above may mean there were substantial cancellations in the order book earlier this month when Tesla told speculators they wouldn't be cashing in on their (sometimes up to 100) pre-orders / reservations for CT. This is good.

Alternately, if we assume either 1M or 2M existing reservations, that may impact the production run rate Tesla has planned (the basic idea here is that each GA line is capable of 250K/yr rated capacity)

• 90K (2024) + 250K (2025) +500K (2026) = 850K cumulative production, and sometime in 2027 before the backlog is cleared
• 850K (2026) + 750K (2027) = 1.5M cumulative production, and sometime in 2028 before production keeps up with orders

This implies that 2 (or possibly 3) GA lines produce CT variants in this order:

• tri-motor (beast mode)
• dual-motor (350 mile range)
• single motor (standard range @ $40K entry price in 2019 $$)

What's clear is this is going to be a major product introduction in N. America, and while shake Ford, GM, and Ram to their core. This is also good.

Cheers to the Longs!

I distinctly remember Elon saying if it was successful enough they would consider making more (4 years of Elon quotes to sift through so I'm not going to try and back that up).

I vaguely remember it being in terms of them making hundreds of thousands per year vs roughly twice that per year.

It'll take time for them to see how people are responding in H1 2024 but if this is a smashing success they just might add another manufacturing line to the mix.

 

[Electroman]

Crazy idea of the day; V12 fixes wipers whether you buy FSD or not.

now, now.. you are getting too greedy. That is moon shot crazy.

You need to understand, getting good working wipers, is not as simple as disrupting the auto industry or space industry.

 

[Drumheller]

Toyota has a new strategy to topple Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Toyota has a new strategy to topple Tesla.

Yeah, that was the 'Cruise' strategy, too.

 

[stevej119]

I distinctly remember Elon saying if it was successful enough they would consider making more (4 years of Elon quotes to sift through so I'm not going to try and back that up).

I vaguely remember it being in terms of them making hundreds of thousands per year vs roughly twice that per year.

It'll take time for them to see how people are responding in H1 2024 but if this is a smashing success they just might add another manufacturing line to the mix.

As an investor whose portfolio is almost entirely TSLA, I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but I’ve got to say I don’t think we have any idea whatsoever how many of these deposits will translate to sales. At $100, sure, I put down a deposit. Why not? Since that time I decided I am absolutely not getting a CT (Just picked up a new Model S and will simply use the old one to haul stuff).

Haven’t cancelled my deposit yet because, until recently, I figured maybe someone I knew would want a CT and perhaps I could give them my place in line. That’s no longer an option, but I just keep forgetting to get a refund. It’s only $100. I shouldn’t be cavalier about $100, I guess. $100 invested when I purchased my shares is worth almosT $2k now. Still, it’s just not at the top of my list of priories. And I don’t think I’m alone there.

 

[dhanson865]

As an investor whose portfolio is almost entirely TSLA, I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but I’ve got to say I don’t think we have any idea whatsoever how many of these deposits will translate to sales. At $100, sure, I put down a deposit. Why not? Since that time I decided I am absolutely not getting a CT (Just picked up a new Model S and will simply use the old one to haul stuff).

Haven’t cancelled my deposit yet because, until recently, I figured maybe someone I knew would want a CT and perhaps I could give them my place in line. That’s no longer an option, but I just keep forgetting to get a refund. It’s only $100. I shouldn’t be cavalier about $100, I guess. $100 invested when I purchased my shares is worth almosT $2k now. Still, it’s just not at the top of my list of priories. And I don’t think I’m alone there.

Did you stand in line today to just look at one? A lot of people with no reservation did.

I don't care if 90% of the reservations go poof, there will still be demand for this vehicle for some time to come.

 

[BornToFly]

That's it. I'm selling all my shares and buying Puts. TSLAQ was 100% right. Tesla will never sell very many.... /s

https://x.com/farzyness/status/1728618532936532377?s=20

 

[dhanson865]

That's it. I'm selling all my shares and buying Puts. TSLAQ was 100% right. Tesla will never sell very many.... /s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728618532936532377

Fixed that URL for ya, it won't show in line on TMC for others to see if you use the shorter URL (used the old site name not the new to fix)

 

[stevej119]

Did you stand in line today to just look at one? A lot of people with no reservation did.

I don't care if 90% of the reservations go poof, there will still be demand for this vehicle for some time to come.

I did not. I’ve seen them on the road, though.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fixed that URL for ya, it won't show in line on TMC for others to see if you use the shorter URL (used the old site name not the new to fix)

So now, does Ford come out with a stainless steel wrap for the F-150?

Remember that 'chrome' wrap on a Model S? Think that'll be a thing again? Or a 'Plaid' wrap?

Cheers!

 

[jeewee3000]

As an investor whose portfolio is almost entirely TSLA, I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but I’ve got to say I don’t think we have any idea whatsoever how many of these deposits will translate to sales. At $100, sure, I put down a deposit. Why not? Since that time I decided I am absolutely not getting a CT (Just picked up a new Model S and will simply use the old one to haul stuff).

Haven’t cancelled my deposit yet because, until recently, I figured maybe someone I knew would want a CT and perhaps I could give them my place in line. That’s no longer an option, but I just keep forgetting to get a refund. It’s only $100. I shouldn’t be cavalier about $100, I guess. $100 invested when I purchased my shares is worth almosT $2k now. Still, it’s just not at the top of my list of priories. And I don’t think I’m alone there.

What I try to keep in mind is the people that ordered 5 or 10 CTs, or more. If each of those is only allowed one purchase , the preorder book would thin fast (which is good, so people can get a CT sooner).

That's why I was a fan of the "no selling in the first year without consent from tesla" rule, this would eliminate most of the scalpers. ( cause you'd need a place to store all your trucks for a year lol). I understand tesla reversed this rule since it wouldn't hold up in court, but at least this means huge demand.

 

[hobbes]

What a great chart:
View attachment 993732

Cherry-picked plot.. why is BYD missing?