Krugerrand
Meow
Yes. It was a winding path to get there, but ultimately the SC purchase was the catalyst that led there.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
1965: The Chevrolet Impala sold 1,074,925 units in the United States alone. A record that stands as of the end of 2022 (and will likely stand for a few more years).
Does Tesla have enough production capacity to beat that with the Model Y or do I have to wait for the "unboxed production" car to see the single year sales record beat?
Hmm, looking at ir.tesla it looks like there is noticeably less than 1M in Y production capacity between California and Texas so I guess I have to wait for the "unboxed production" car.
I still say for the Cybertruck can't beat the F150 volumes crowd, it won't be truck vs truck. Tesla will take the volume lead with a non truck (not the Cyber Truck).
Model Y might take the short term leader position as F150 and friends get their legs taken out from under them by the Cyber Truck.
Then later on a new smaller Tesla will take the lead from the Model Y.
The tables below suggest F150 series will be around 780,000 sold in the US in 2023.
My suggestion is that F150 series will fall back and Model Y will only need to hit something like 600,000 in a year to be the number one vehicle. No where near Impala numbers, or even peak F150 series numbers, but enough to take the lead in 2024 or 2025 maybe?
Even if Model Y can't get to 600,000, getting to 500,000 would likely put it into 2nd place and getting to 400,000 would likely get it to 4th place.
2022 full year from goodcarbadcar.net
2023 partial year
Does Tesla have enough production capacity to beat that with the Model Y or do I have to wait for the "unboxed production" car to see the single year sales record beat?
Hmm, looking at ir.tesla it looks like there is noticeably less than 1M in Y production capacity between California and Texas so I guess I have to wait for the "unboxed production" car.
I still say for the Cybertruck can't beat the F150 volumes crowd, it won't be truck vs truck. Tesla will take the volume lead with a non truck (not the Cyber Truck).
Model Y might take the short term leader position as F150 and friends get their legs taken out from under them by the Cyber Truck.
Then later on a new smaller Tesla will take the lead from the Model Y.
The tables below suggest F150 series will be around 780,000 sold in the US in 2023.
My suggestion is that F150 series will fall back and Model Y will only need to hit something like 600,000 in a year to be the number one vehicle. No where near Impala numbers, or even peak F150 series numbers, but enough to take the lead in 2024 or 2025 maybe?
Even if Model Y can't get to 600,000, getting to 500,000 would likely put it into 2nd place and getting to 400,000 would likely get it to 4th place.
2022 full year from goodcarbadcar.net
2023 partial year
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UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
UK (Europe, ccs2)
I spent some time recently troubleshooting AC charging on someone else's non-tesla EV. It took me to MANY AC chargers, some of which were next to DC chargers. Many AC chargers full and therefore useless to most users who cannot wait around.
Oh, my word... just a few minutes at a motorway services. One AC and one DC. Taycan got to DC just before me. In just a few minutes, Audi EV with 20 miles, iPace drivers asking about situation. New Volvo just drove off. Three annoyed new EV drivers in a short time.
Both drivers who talked to me, didn't know apps to help find chargers, just relying on car navigation. Looking at zapmap, not many options for them. Looks like no help from whoever provided cars - employer, leasing company or dealership.
All hail tesla Superchargers
Details...
3 phase AC works, single phase doesn't on 2 granny chargers - rolec and tesla (trips RCD/electricity every time), a 7.4 kW EVSE ( error message on car, red light on "charger") and a podpoint single phase EVSE (charging network).
Had been working for years.
I spent some time recently troubleshooting AC charging on someone else's non-tesla EV. It took me to MANY AC chargers, some of which were next to DC chargers. Many AC chargers full and therefore useless to most users who cannot wait around.
Oh, my word... just a few minutes at a motorway services. One AC and one DC. Taycan got to DC just before me. In just a few minutes, Audi EV with 20 miles, iPace drivers asking about situation. New Volvo just drove off. Three annoyed new EV drivers in a short time.
Both drivers who talked to me, didn't know apps to help find chargers, just relying on car navigation. Looking at zapmap, not many options for them. Looks like no help from whoever provided cars - employer, leasing company or dealership.
All hail tesla Superchargers
Details...
3 phase AC works, single phase doesn't on 2 granny chargers - rolec and tesla (trips RCD/electricity every time), a 7.4 kW EVSE ( error message on car, red light on "charger") and a podpoint single phase EVSE (charging network).
Had been working for years.
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Tesla Bot can't come fast enough, no?
lafrisbee
Active Member
I'm just one. But most people are similar to me even you guys here...if you open your minds.
NO one has ever shifted,faster, easier, and slicker in my perception of him and his company than Elon Musk. I will try and just focus on the cyber (NOTA) truck.
Things that "changed" (oopsie) and people have not recognized how negative the changes are
It is not going to be as wide.
It is not going to be as tall.
It is not going to be as long.
It is not going to have the same front.
It has no REAL exoskeleton
It has a body on frame.
It is not going to get 500 miles per charge.
It will not have the foretold energy dense batteries
It is not going to have a tailgate ramp.
It is not going to have channels for tie downs in the bed.
It is not going to have a stainless bed.
It is not going to have "bullet-proof" glass anywhere.
It is not going to have an optional ATV.
It is not going to have a yoke steering wheel.
And those are just a few of the long list of changes. The cyber we put a deposit on is not close to the vehicle that is going to be debuted in a few days. Things like the size should have been finalized before a prototype was made. It is an easy engineering issue. Bullshit to all the "it wouldn't fit in MY garage." Size matters. Elon has fallen short on every major Physical goal of the engineering of the cyber(nota)truck. Even the wiper blade.
Pretty much it is a Model X with some flat steel panels, and "unique" look.
And now my point: We invest in TSLA because we believed in Musk. He ain't right.
NO one has ever shifted,faster, easier, and slicker in my perception of him and his company than Elon Musk. I will try and just focus on the cyber (NOTA) truck.
Things that "changed" (oopsie) and people have not recognized how negative the changes are
It is not going to be as wide.
It is not going to be as tall.
It is not going to be as long.
It is not going to have the same front.
It has no REAL exoskeleton
It has a body on frame.
It is not going to get 500 miles per charge.
It will not have the foretold energy dense batteries
It is not going to have a tailgate ramp.
It is not going to have channels for tie downs in the bed.
It is not going to have a stainless bed.
It is not going to have "bullet-proof" glass anywhere.
It is not going to have an optional ATV.
It is not going to have a yoke steering wheel.
And those are just a few of the long list of changes. The cyber we put a deposit on is not close to the vehicle that is going to be debuted in a few days. Things like the size should have been finalized before a prototype was made. It is an easy engineering issue. Bullshit to all the "it wouldn't fit in MY garage." Size matters. Elon has fallen short on every major Physical goal of the engineering of the cyber(nota)truck. Even the wiper blade.
Pretty much it is a Model X with some flat steel panels, and "unique" look.
And now my point: We invest in TSLA because we believed in Musk. He ain't right.
Most of these may be true, but still it will be the most talked about car the next year, it will sell like hotcakes, it will humiliate the competition on most relevant objective measures etc. Like SpaceX is a series of failures and has 90% of the market and is revolutionizing space with their failing rockets. Like Tesla has been a joke company all the way to having the most sold car worldwide and the highest market cap. And the bears will never change their model of the world that keeps producing opposite results of what they expect.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
CT:
- Is Wide enough (how would being wider make it better?)
- Is Tall enough (how would being taller make it better?)
- Is Long enough (cavernous interior and a 6.5' bed and able to carry 4' x 8' sheet with the tailgate down is the spec for most people)
- Front styling looks more like the CT reveal version than does the front of any other pickup on the market
- Just because the 3mm thick body panels mount to sub-structure does not prevent them from providing an exoskeleton that can't be dented with a sledge hammer or pierced by small arms fire (having an endo-skeleton and an exo-skeleton are not mutually exclusive)
- Is NOT body on frame by any stretch of the imagination (can't envision removing a few bolts to separate body/bed from a rolling drive-train/frame)
- A little early to make any claims about the battery / range, as this will be unique for each version of the truck
- The tailgate ramp would have been a handy item, though fraught with potential for issues and higher costs to manufacture
- The logistic track in the bed would have been nice, and can easily be retrofitted for those who would like that feature
- The lighter, tougher, scratch/ding resistant bed material is an improvement
- Never was it said that the glass would be bullet proof
Don't bet against Elon
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Production ramp was supposed to begin in November. Elon might take the opportunity to update us at the CT event.
More wishful thinking here:
Cybertruck Event Bingo
Stunning family resemblance!
Also OT: hang around this forum enough and you learn to love all the eccentric curmudgeons and fanbois- just because you get familiar with their idiosyncrasies and find them strangely comforting in this rollercoaster TSLA ride.
Barely OT: I am guessing that the number of CTs showing up in showrooms around the country are going to hype the stock up a bit until the delivery event, and then in “buy the rumor, sell the news” tradition, stock will go down on Dec 1. But by how much? Looks like max pain next week is 230. JimS’s maxpain vs actual chart shows them tracking pretty closely lately, so I’m guessing next week will be a bit of a wash.
(Tbh, I’m hoping for a burn-the-shortzes pop to the moon, and am posting just to dare fate to prove me wrong. But don’t tell anyone)
Said like somebody who "got out of most of their position 6 months ago". Based on a lot of your posts I think you're trying to convince yourself doing this was the right move. If I understand correctly it was something you had to do at the time anyway. But there's no need to be so bitter about it. Prepare to be entirely wrong about the Cybertruck.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Not financial advice, but selling 100% did seem odd. Surely keeping 10% just in case, but each to their own. Knowing when enough is enough is a good way to be, I'd just choose to have some remaining - for a variety of reaons. Of course I'm 105% all in on $TSLA...Said like somebody who "got out of most of their position 6 months ago". Based on a lot of your posts I think you're trying to convince yourself doing this was the right move. If I understand correctly it was something you had to do at the time anyway. But there's no need to be so bitter about it. Prepare to be entirely wrong about the Cybertruck.
In fact, it's not too late, $TSLA seems to be cheaper than it was recently. Re-evaluate?
EldestOyster
Member
Ask them how much money Tesla loses for every car they sell. If you get the expected answer, suggest they can hasten the company's demise by buying one.
Lol... we got plenty of time! Wife's a Master Planner. Her first comment was "Uh... they're kinda slow."
True, Optimus is (was) slow at some things, but way faster grabbing stuff.My favorite part was how it lifted the box up high before placing it down (possibly to locate the bottom of the box). IDK, maybe they're guessing what's inside... a classic Johnny Carson move.
Low IQ*?
cliff harris
Member
Its funny to see a list of changes to the cybertruck.
If this was any other auto company on earth, the concept model would look like a cybertruck, and then the shipped model would look like an F150.
Tesla is the only company that designs futuristic stuff, then actually ships it. Nobody cares if its slightly shorter, in fact many people wanted this, so it would fit in their garage. And nobody cares about the windscreen wiper.
Companies like Toyota get a free-pass to publish BS about solid state batteries they never develop, models they never ship, factories they never build, and 'self-charging hybrids' but Tesla get pilloried for adjusting a windscreen wiper?
Yikes.
If this was any other auto company on earth, the concept model would look like a cybertruck, and then the shipped model would look like an F150.
Tesla is the only company that designs futuristic stuff, then actually ships it. Nobody cares if its slightly shorter, in fact many people wanted this, so it would fit in their garage. And nobody cares about the windscreen wiper.
Companies like Toyota get a free-pass to publish BS about solid state batteries they never develop, models they never ship, factories they never build, and 'self-charging hybrids' but Tesla get pilloried for adjusting a windscreen wiper?
Yikes.
Mike Smith
Active Member
I agree with Philippe Houchois of Jefferies - It's time for Tesla to consider cancelling the Cybertruck. Customers are swarming the showrooms gawking and taking pictures and drooling on the floor, which must be very annoying for the staff and cleaners.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
EXOSKELETON
Are the external plates load bearing? No, but it is about 3mm of steel on the outside of the vehicle, by comparison a WWI tank had weak 6mm steel. The Cybertruck isn't a tank by modern standards but for a consumer grade mass market vehicle this Cybertruck is the closest thing to bullet proof to ever see the road.
If someone is firing at 90 degree angle to the metal most anything will go through, but as the angle changes the penetration value to make it through starts being a factor.
What will it block at 75 degrees? And at 60 degrees? And at 45 degrees? (and by block I mean not penetrate, which includes any ricochets as successfully blocked)
What will it block at 75 degrees? And at 60 degrees? And at 45 degrees? (and by block I mean not penetrate, which includes any ricochets as successfully blocked)
Is Tesla armor glass bullet proof? No it isn't, again it's tougher than the glass you will see on any other consumer grade mass market vehicle.
There is no change to the durability claims for either of these, Essentially the reveal prototype got made into a production vehicle. They call it an exoskeleton in terms of it having a hard external shell, not in terms of load bearing.
PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY
The 500 mile range claim is still there. Less than a week to reveal and they haven't backed off that 500 mile claim yet.
Cybertruck
Cybertruck is designed to have the utility of a truck with sports car performance. Built to be durable, versatile, capable and high-performance both on-road and off-road.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Regarding CT's glass, IIRC, it was derived from the windshield material Tesla developed for the Semi. It seems that windshield damage is a high frequency concern on over-the-road trucks and a major expense due to both replacement costs and vehicle down-time.
Tesla came up with glass that would hold up to the rocks, bird strikes, thrown road debris, etc. which routinely leads to glass replacement. Further increasing the value of the Semi to drivers.
It seems a perfect fit for the CT as well. That is, unless Franz takes issue and tosses something at your CT's window.
Tesla came up with glass that would hold up to the rocks, bird strikes, thrown road debris, etc. which routinely leads to glass replacement. Further increasing the value of the Semi to drivers.
It seems a perfect fit for the CT as well. That is, unless Franz takes issue and tosses something at your CT's window.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
You left a step out, it's unless Franz takes issue and hits your CT door with a sledge hammer and then tosses something at your CT's window.
Because in the tests before the reveal he was able to throw the balls at the window without cracking the glass.
It was the sledgehammer weakening the glass first that allowed the ball to finish it off.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I never go full facts when creating humor. It dulls the cutting edge.
But yes, at the reveal the stand-alone ball-drop demonstrations of the glass were flawless.
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