Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I'm drawn back to what I said here:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

How far do you want me to go back? Starting when Tesla of all companies wasn't invite to the EV summit is good enough? The EV Summit was for legacy to get their act together. Tesla had nothing to learn. 'Oh no, Biden won't say Tesla' - he didn't have to. Who do you think has their act...

teslamotorsclub.com

View attachment 994561

These manufacturers/dealers are using the slowdown in the economy as the scapegoat for their poor EV sales performance. It's not an EV thang....it's a new car thang! If they were looking at the whole picture and not just YOY following supply chain/chip shortage hell, they'd see that the Fed having lowered the control rods into the plutonium too far and too long has cooled things off too much. Never let an excuse to slow down the adoption of sustainable energy vehicles go to waste!

Consider that Q4 is typically great for Auto sales, while Q1 is the slowest quarter. Uh-oh... the chart should be going the other way right now! Imagine the layoffs in Q1. Hence the efforts to try and extend the rebates into next year. Lipstick on a pig.

Spoiler: Sweep! Sweep!!!

Not gonna make it...

 

[betstarship]

I'm outtie, good luck everyone - best wishes with TSLA and life

thank you

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Consider that Q4 is typically great for Auto sales, while Q1 is the slowest quarter. Uh-oh... the chart should be going the other way right now! Imagine the layoffs in Q1. Hence the efforts to try and extend the rebates into next year. Lipstick on a pig.

Spoiler: Sweep! Sweep!!!

Not gonna make it...

I will always remember this quote "Just because you pour syrup on , it will not make it pancakes."

 

[Drax7]

GM have a dividend yeirld of 1.4% and are down over 5 years on the stock. Anybody holding GM for its juicy dividends is... not bright,
I'm sure the mainstream media will salivate at the prospect of using this story a day before cybertruck to write BS articles 'contrasting' Teslas zero dividend with the safe, established, adult-run GM.
Its sad and pathetic to watch. With legacy auto always finding money for buybacks and advertsiing, but never for EV investment or R&D, no wonder their attempts to compete with Tesla are a joke.

Cybertruck is going to absolutely destroy the legacy truck business. The one place left where those dinosaurs still made a bit of money.

They realize they are too big to fail, hence acting in a reckless financial manner is plausible.
They have 80 billion in long term debt, it will never be paid back.

 

[Knightshade]

Cybertruck is going to absolutely destroy the legacy truck business. The one place left where those dinosaurs still made a bit of money.

People keep saying this, but Elons own production #s do not support the claim.

Light truck sales in the US are like 11ish million a year- Elon says Tesla is gonna make about 250k cybertrucks a year (sometimes 375 as a maybe)

I've no doubt they'll sell easily, but replacing less than 2.5% of other trucks is not gonna "destroy" their business. Even if we double that 250k you're taking less than 5% of the segment.

 

[Krugerrand]

GM’s Dividend Increased.​

stock up 11% ​

That actually makes sense. More people and entities want more free money. Doesn’t actually matter the source of that money.

 

[jerry33]

People keep saying this, but Elons own production #s do not support the claim.

Light truck sales in the US are like 11ish million a year- Elon says Tesla is gonna make about 250k cybertrucks a year (sometimes 375 as a maybe)

I've no doubt they'll sell easily, but replacing less than 2.5% of other trucks is not gonna "destroy" their business. Even if we double that 250k you're taking less than 5% of the segment.

Might destroy their profits though (or at least put a big dent in them).

 

[powertoold]

Light truck sales in the US are like 11ish million a year- Elon says Tesla is gonna make about 250k cybertrucks a year (sometimes 375 as a maybe)

Light truck - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Stretch2727]

You have to love GM. They know their costs are going up due to their labor agreement and the transition to EVs, plus the overall economy is slowing and their profits will be squeezed. So what do they do? They raise their dividend by 33% and do a $10 BILLION stock buyback. I sometimes think they really want to go out of business as fast as possible!

The really upsetting thing about this is they are taking loans from the federal government and doing stock buy backs.

You would think there would be some restrictions with the loans.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/12/politics/biden-ev-battery-loan/index.html

 

[Krugerrand]

Might destroy their profits though (or at least put a big dent in them).

Agreed. Tesla doesn’t have to take a large market share to hurt them badly. They just have to take a big enough piece to push the snowball down the mountain. Just people deciding to hang onto their old ICE trucks rather than buy new to wait for a CT can make a huge dent.

Let’s not forget the percentage of decline in sales that led to GM and Chrysler’s bankruptcies. Hint for the peanut crowd: it wasn’t very high.

Finally, let’s also not forget that Ford would have gone belly up too if not for a particular EV loan they took at the time. And then let’s not forget what they did with that 10x stack of EV loan money vs Tesla’s tiny loan.

When I get my tri-motor CT, every redneck, hillbilly within a thousand miles is going to want one. I sure hope Tesla beefs up the referral award program at that point. I wouldn’t mind a few things.

Just a matter of time. Tick, tock. Tick, tock.

 

[Knightshade]

Light truck - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

FWIW there's folks who have suggested CT would replace some SUVs as well, but ok, JUST pickups specifically is still around 2.8 (per number in post below) a year- at 250k year the only brands of truck they'd be outselling would be the irrelevant 1-3% players like Nissan and Honda.... RAM sells 2x that number and GM and Ford each sell about 3x that number in most years- even Toyota sells more pickups.

Again it'd take a nice piece of the market, but not remotely "destroy" it.

Now what it'll do to the annual financials of the other companies is a more complex question, but if we assume it takes roughly equally from all the big players it's more likely a "no longer making record profits" rather than a "destroys the entire company" bit of math.

 

[MP3Mike]

Light truck sales in the US are like 11ish million a year- Elon says Tesla is gonna make about 250k cybertrucks a year (sometimes 375 as a maybe)

Yeah, I don't think that ~11 million number is relevant, as it includes way more than pickup trucks.

2022 Top Selling U.S. Pickup Trucks (Ranked)

The Ford F-Series was the top selling truck in 2022 selling 653,957 pickup trucks. But there are 10 other pickup truck manufacturers.

tailoredtrucks.com

There was a total of 2,746,561 pickup trucks sold throughout the U.S. from 11 different brands in 2022.

 

[cliff harris]

FWIW I think elon is sandbagging CT production. He was talking that way because the growing pains of getting the technology right for the truck has been recently in his mind. I think the market for CT is way bigger than the 250k/year. Unless production challenges are unsolvable at a reasonable price.
We will know a lot more tomorrow when we have specs and prices. And a lot, lot more after Q1 has given us real production numbers of the final spec.

 

[insaneoctane]

You have to love GM. They know their costs are going up due to their labor agreement and the transition to EVs, plus the overall economy is slowing and their profits will be squeezed. So what do they do? They raise their dividend by 33% and do a $10 BILLION stock buyback. I sometimes think they really want to go out of business as fast as possible!

GM initiates $10 billion buyback, boosts dividend and reinstates 2023 guidance after UAW strikes

GM pulled its guidance when it reported its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 24, citing volatility caused by the UAW negotiations and labor strikes.

www.cnbc.com

Interesting move after losing billions during union negotiations suggesting they couldn't afford the terms...only to turn around and buy back 25% of your stock and give stock holders more dividends....if GM isn't bankrupt by the next union negotiations, this will certainly be included in the union's next ante!

 

[kbM3]

People keep saying this, but Elons own production #s do not support the claim.

Light truck sales in the US are like 11ish million a year- Elon says Tesla is gonna make about 250k cybertrucks a year (sometimes 375 as a maybe)

I've no doubt they'll sell easily, but replacing less than 2.5% of other trucks is not gonna "destroy" their business. Even if we double that 250k you're taking less than 5% of the segment.

Agree. 250k won’t hurt that badly and some of those will come from people who do not currently buy trucks, so that market expansion means even less sales stolen from legacy.

What might hurt beyond just the units, is if the stolen sales are from the higher priced more profitable vehicles.

Undoubtedly Tesla sales have already hurt legacy profits more than the numbers would indicate because they have been stealing affluent buyers, primarily from the $40k+ segment.

 

[winfield100]

GM’s Dividend Increased.​

stock up 11% ​

Lot of Form 4's by GM imminent?

 

[Mengy]

FWIW I think elon is sandbagging CT production. He was talking that way because the growing pains of getting the technology right for the truck has been recently in his mind. I think the market for CT is way bigger than the 250k/year. Unless production challenges are unsolvable at a reasonable price.
We will know a lot more tomorrow when we have specs and prices. And a lot, lot more after Q1 has given us real production numbers of the final spec.

He could be sandbagging but I am taking him at his word on CT production. I think the ramp up will be painfully slow, particularly at the start (like for the next few months). The fact they are only delivering ten tomorrow says a lot IMHO.

 

[Knightshade]

FWIW I think elon is sandbagging CT production.

I've heard ELON IS SANDBAGGING in here for years-- and nobody's ever able to provide, like, ANY examples of that except arguably Model Y launch....Everything else he is, by his own admission, late for due to being overly optimistic early stages on new things.

Why do people keep thinking he ever intentionally sandbags anything?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Yeah, I don't think that ~11 million number is relevant, as it includes way more than pickup trucks.

2022 Top Selling U.S. Pickup Trucks (Ranked)

The Ford F-Series was the top selling truck in 2022 selling 653,957 pickup trucks. But there are 10 other pickup truck manufacturers.

tailoredtrucks.com

@MP3Mike, you are correct. My Honda Pilot SUV license and insurance documents both classify it as a "truck".
So with 2.7 million trucks sold in the US, we are now talking Tesla Cybertruck taking 10% of the truck market within two to three years, and this is just to start. Once single motor and other versions (long towing range) are made available, I would expect Cybertruck to take 25% of the market within five years.

@Knightshade, what are your numbers now?

 

[GOVA]

I've heard ELON IS SANDBAGGING in here for years-- and nobody's ever able to provide, like, ANY examples of that except arguably Model Y launch....Everything else he is, by his own admission, late for due to being overly optimistic early stages on new things.

Why do people keep thinking he ever intentionally sandbags anything?

because he really wants to kick WS and shorts in their behinds again, to put it mildly.