Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

One of the main reasons I think the 250k is sandbagging is that 250,000 units a year is now kinda niche for Tesla.

It's an installed equipment limit.

250k a year is a vehicle every 2.1 minutes, 24/7/365.
The 9000 ton Gigapress has a dry cycle rate of 1.2 per minute or 50 seconds. That leaves a maximum of 76 seconds to cool (if needed), remove casting, and prep mold for the next shot.
At 90% up time: 1.9 minutes per casting or 64 seconds of overhead
80% up time: 101 seconds, 51 overhead
Current presses are running at around an 80-90 second cycle time.
So they might get more than 250k, but likely less than the next multiple of 50k.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Maybe, just maybe Elon has finally learned that the media will NEVER give the company fair coverage...

Elon's terrible at timescales, but he is not so overly-optimistic on volumes.

Elon has never cared a ratzass about the media, and neither should his investors. He has nothing to learn from the media.

Elon is optimistic on production of items which have never been built before; mass produced EV at a profit, exoskeleton body design, landing rockets. To say Elon is "terrible at timescales" is undeserved. There has been no prior benchmark timescale. He is not cooking a chicken here.

 

[Tony73]

They should hopefully at least mention a future long range version.

All speculation of course.

And Osborne the launch model ? Nah

 

[jerry33]

And Osborne the launch model ? Nah

Whether they talk about it or not, those who want the 500 mile version will wait anyway.

 

[Knightshade]

. To say Elon is "terrible at timescales" is undeserved.

I mean even Elon says that?

I mean punctuality's not my strong suit. I think, uh well, why would people think that if I've been late on all the other models, that'd I'd be suddenly on time with this one.

and

Elon Musk: "People should not ascribe to malice that which can easily be explained by stupidity." (LAUGHTER) So-- so it's, like, just because I'm, like, dumb at-- at predicting dates does not mean I am untruthful."

So your bit about he's doing new stuff is true- he said that in the interview too- but that doesn't negate his own admission he's bad at being on time.

it's part of why the "Elons totes sandbagging everything" argument is so silly.

 

[Tony73]

Whether they talk about it or not, those who want the 500 mile version will wait anyway.

I suspect Tesla will not even confirm if it is still coming or not. Unless the 500 mile version is ready to launch or close, expect radio silence from Tesla.

If that is the case, 500 Mile reservation holders who tow long distances will continue to wait. People who reserved 500 miles but rarely tow will mostly take what is being offered.

 

[Tony73]

Shares went down 5% the day after the Model Y unveiling (3/15/19) and I believe that is consistent with other Tesla inveilings. The market will react to pricing and range so we'll see.

In all fairness, that was the most underwhelming unveiling in Tesla history. They were scared sh*t less of cratering model 3 sales

 

[SarahsDad]

Pretty controversial interview going on right now with Elon and Andrew Sorkin at the DealBook Summit, being broadcast live on CNBC. Elon is being a bit antagonistic/disruptive. I hope this doesn't put a damper on the CT launch tomorrow...

 

[SOULPEDL]

And Osborne the launch model ? Nah

... or cancel it. I'm out at 300 (miles that is), nickel even worse with 20%-80% charging. Model X goes further and can tow decent.

By announcing the 500 mi (future) version tomorrow, then folks may hold off on getting something else. Don't announce it and many would be moving on. There is no Osborning this beast... off-road would make it a must have if that's your thing.

 

[cliff harris]

It's an installed equipment limit.

250k a year is a vehicle every 2.1 minutes, 24/7/365.
The 9000 ton Gigapress has a dry cycle rate of 1.2 per minute or 50 seconds. That leaves a maximum of 76 seconds to cool (if needed), remove casting, and prep mold for the next shot.
At 90% up time: 1.9 minutes per casting or 64 seconds of overhead
80% up time: 101 seconds, 51 overhead
Current presses are running at around an 80-90 second cycle time.
So they might get more than 250k, but likely less than the next multiple of 50k.

Sure, but there is no rule that says they can only have one production line? I wouldn't expect them to order a second gigapress setup on day one, but I wouldn't rule out future expansion either.

 

[lafrisbee]

Hold on? Are you guys saying not only is the long list of what the Cyber(nota)truck going to do I can add, "It won't get 500MPC?

 

[MountainRatMat]

I suspect Tesla will not even confirm if it is still coming or not. Unless the 500 mile version is ready to launch or close, expect radio silence from Tesla.

If that is the case, 500 Mile reservation holders who tow long distances will continue to wait. People who reserved 500 miles but rarely tow will mostly take what is being offered.

I never tow and want a 500 mile version. I'll pay almost anything for range. I could care less about tri-motor, give me dual motor longest range. Range is King!

Tesla's are already faster than I need.

Osborning will not be a problem with a product like this, as long as the next version is released in under a year the demand for this vehicle will continue to be insane short term. Even if they don't have a long range version ready they should still announce it tomorrow with pricing if they are planning on manufacturing it.

 

[willow_hiller]

So the recent shots of the CT dash show 265 miles with 9 bars showing. That extrapolates out to 265*.9=294 miles of range. Call it 300, as there's obviously some coarseness to the granularity of a 10 segment gauge... besides the target was 300....

It's also worth noting that this particular YouTuber that took the screenshot was lent an F150 Lightning, and speculated about range with weight in the bed. And the Lightning was also equipped with a scale for the bed in order to dynamically adjust the range calculation. I would not be surprised if Tesla gave Marques something heavy to haul around.

 

[2daMoon]

Hold on? Are you guys saying not only is the long list of what the Cyber(nota)truck going to do I can add, "It won't get 500MPC?

Always the ray of sunshine, eh?

Surely, you noticed at the CT reveal how only one of three versions of the CT offered a 500 mile range. The other two versions never had any aspirations in that regard. Those versions have likely changed by now, but there will still be more than one version of the CT.

It seems likely that the most battery dense, motor dense, bad to the bone model may not be the one being released first. Much like the Model S Plaid wasn't the introductory version.

Good luck with that bitterness you seem to feel motivated to share with the forum. I'm sure it isn't easy to bear.

 

[EQC_]

Sure, but there is no rule that says they can only have one production line? I wouldn't expect them to order a second gigapress setup on day one, but I wouldn't rule out future expansion either.

Wasn't there some evidence that Giga Texas got a second 9000 ton casting machine delivered a couple months ago?

I assumed (possibly incorrectly) that the front Cybertruck casting was smaller and could be done on a 6000 ton machine...so a second 9000 ton press would either be to increase Cybertruck production rate, or to make something else...

 

[Stretch2727]

Pretty controversial interview going on right now with Elon and Andrew Sorkin at the DealBook Summit, being broadcast live on CNBC. Elon is being a bit antagonistic/disruptive. I hope this doesn't put a damper on the CT launch tomorrow...

I watched the whole thing live. Yeah, Elon was pretty controversial in the beginning but he settled down and it became a very good interview with good explanations of his positions on many topics. Have to admire Andrew Sorkin on his research and questions for Elon. If you have the time it's good interview to watch. Elon explains himself in a pretty level headed way on many topics. I will post a link later if I find one as the live feed from the NYT is gone.

 

[BornToFly]

I have more than one CT reservation for a reason. Get what ever they offer now with the first one. Hopefully get 500 mile truck in the next couple years with the other reservation. Third reservation so I don't wait years for a replacement if someone damages the current CT.

 

[mongo]

Wasn't there some evidence that Giga Texas got a second 9000 ton casting machine delivered a couple months ago?

I assumed (possibly incorrectly) that the front Cybertruck casting was smaller and could be done on a 6000 ton machine...so a second 9000 ton press would either be to increase Cybertruck production rate, or to make something else...

The rumors I've read say they are currently swapping dies on one 9000 ton press to build Cybertruck. That fits with the current 125k/yr estimate from the Q2 slide deck

Sure, but there is no rule that says they can only have one production line? I wouldn't expect them to order a second gigapress setup on day one, but I wouldn't rule out future expansion either.

Sure, but that won't happen until they see what kind of legs the backlog has...

 

[SOULPEDL]

What if the mileage in the photo was "Towing Estimated Miles"? Tesla vehicles already know if you hook up any lights for towing (to disengage FSD, bummer...). So then a realistic range gauge would be preferred, with possibly an automatic mode. This is perhaps why we could not see anything to the right of the displayed miles.

What would anyone towing want to actually know? Non-towing range that is way off calibration and make you do math in your head every time? % range doesn't tell me what I need to know either. Of course it would need to calibrate the rig, but that could take a whole mile is all. Now consider this is Tesla and everything about this truck is different. It would be a master blow to rumors and shortz! (Oh how I wish for the rabbit this time.) Realistically, I'm<50% confident they do this, OK <25%. How about 1:10 side bets, well... OK CyberTruck Bingo then at least.

And if not tomorrow, then I will request this feature myself.

 

[ggies07]

Google Image Result for https://media1.giphy.com/media/aMh59aKR8vjdC/giphy.gifElon got a little wound up today at the DealBook Summit. Hopefully good vibes from the CT event dominates the media's attention tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729991850079990080