Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EQC_]

A summary of some specs:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730442110837440860

One of the lines in that tweet:

"Fewer dents, less damage & long-term corrosion. Easy & simple repairs."

I want more info on the repairs! There are plenty of anecdotes of "minor" damage to a Tesla costing $10k-$20k to repair a 3 or Y with a few dented panels. These stories are frequently used to bash Tesla...

And, many were predicting the Cybertruck repairs would be hugely expensive since (they claim) dent repair isn't possible on stainless...

We know the Cybertruck will resist damage...but when repair is needed, it would be awesome if it was indeed as simple as unbolting the panel and replacing it with a new one that costs a few hundred dollars...

Or, in my own fantasy world: weld some non-matching scrap metal over a dent or puncture and call it character on this post-apocalyptic vehicle.

 

[EQC_]

So it just hit me that Tesla hasn't received EPA range approval or even submitted, yet. I asked in another thread why it hasn't leaked as it always does, but all of the ranges are estimated with an asterisk.

I feel like I remember that happening with the Model 3 when it was released...EPA wasn't official until well after initial deliveries.

I think it has happened also when upgrades of different Tesla models increased range...an asterisk next to the range in the website, but orders and deliveries started when Tesla was ready.

 

[capster]

I'd be shocked if the range extender was attached at the factory. It seems to me that the whole reason they did the range extender was to keep the price/cost down for the base models and still qualify for the tax credit.

Most won't need the range extender, but at least Tesla can offer it and say they have a truck with a longer range than Rivian.

Elon also said Tesla offers the best Apocalypse tech and the range extender fits that category—mobile yet handy to use in your various bunkers. If I order a Cyberbeast (is it tri-motor still?) will I get it faster than the AWD+Range Extender+Pneumatic Tent (awwwbrrrr!!!)? Decisions, decisions.

 

[EQC_]

Did Tesla 'promise' 500 miles or 'estimated range up to' 500 miles? I mean it can be broken down several ways but we all knew this was going to happen regardless and the range extender to 440 miles is not good enough.

Fully agree with you. "Promised" is an emotional word, not a factual one...no business ever promises anything -- they predict or estimate or just "say." Anytime I see an article, blog, or social media post claiming Tesla (or any other company) "promised" something and then broke that promise, it tells me the author is either thinking like a toddler ("Mommy promised I could have a cookie!") or is purposely using emotional/inflammatory words to draw clicks and is being deceitful.

Same goes for authors who say Elon or Tesla "refused" to do something when the word "didn't" is accurate.

 

[jamaatta]

If you are not happy with range, send 'em to us here in Europe. Thank you!

 

[NicoV]

If you are not happy with range, send 'em to us here in Europe. Thank you!

Every Icelander will want one. I want to rent one on holiday in Iceland.

 

[replicant]

Fully agree with you. "Promised" is an emotional word, not a factual one...no business ever promises anything -- they predict or estimate or just "say." Anytime I see an article, blog, or social media post claiming Tesla (or any other company) "promised" something and then broke that promise, it tells me the author is either thinking like a toddler ("Mommy promised I could have a cookie!") or is purposely using emotional/inflammatory words to draw clicks and is being deceitful.

Same goes for authors who say Elon or Tesla "refused" to do something when the word "didn't" is accurate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/535085589456879616

 

[jeewee3000]

I was hoping to use a Cybertruck as a camper, but the 3K$ CT Tent is not what I hoped for. Any ideas if the third party camping attachments like the Cyberlandr will be feasible now that the CT is officially released?

By the time Tesla delivers (some version of) Cybertruck to EU/Belgium, I'm sure there will be plenty of third party tents available. Don't hold your breath.

 

[Ocelot]

…well now we know why the event was scheduled in the middle of a “workday”. A large part of me thinks they would of been better off not holding an event.

Anyhow, on to more important things. CENSORSHIP.

Part of evaluating data is evaluating the source of that data, and to examine for any bias. As we know, Elon tweets are not allowed in this thread, despite how they can heavily influence stock price. Hence, I started a thread to discuss Elon’s tweets or news about Elon and how those things might potentially impact TSLA.

That thread was DELETED PREEMPTIVELY as “ these threads always go off the rails”. A lot of people actually think these things are part of the rails. To not openly discuss them is akin to plugging your ears while screaming I can’t hear you.

It is important to know when evaluating TMC as a source of data for your investments that there is not only censorship of inappropriate discussion, but
preemptive censorship of what is ALLOWED to be discussed. Obviously this introduces massive bias, which is not only unfortunate but a disservice to all who try to make this place and have made this place what it is.


Before those of you who are semantically inclined chime in, yes I realize it is a private owned entity, and any topics can be censored. But most of you here get my point.

@Doug_G
@danny

 

[NicoV]

By the time Tesla delivers (some version of) Cybertruck to EU/Belgium, I'm sure there will be plenty of third party tents available. Don't hold your breath.

I’m still holding my breath for my solar roof reservation.

 

[insaneoctane]

I'd like to share my thoughts to help contribute to the range of CT responses...

• Cybertruck is original, badass, capable and polarizing
• Tesla has changed gears significantly with their pricing approach
  • For me, HUGE disappointment with today's pricing vs product reveal pricing. You just can't explain away 43% - 60% price increases with inflation. You really won't be able to justify these increases with many reservation holders IMO
  • My only guess/hope is that since Tesla doesn't have a dealer network, that they have decided to add the "dealer markup" (frequently applied to hard to get vehicles) themselves. I appreciate what it does for margins as an investor, but it feels just as sleezy as when dealers do it.
  • If Tesla's goal isn't to reduce the pricing back down to something closer to inflation adjusted product reveal numbers after the "must have it now" early adopters are exhausted, then I feel they'll have lost all credibility for pricing at launch. This isn't the same as what they did with the TM3. TM3 was revealed as a "starting at $35K" vehicle, but was delivered as a $49K to $78K product because there were "uppers" over the announced $35K trim like $9K LR batteries, $5K PUP, etc. It took them approximately 20 months in production before the $35K vehicle was briefly offered- but it was offered. CT is different. They announced the trim/configuration pricing of $39K/$49K/$69K at launch and after 4 years of anxiously waiting they've simply adjusted those all up 43% - 60% at the delivery event and I think it's a bad look that will come with justifiably bad press.
• Tesla has absolutely missed the range mark with the originally announced $69K/est. 500 mile CT. It's now $100K and 320 miles. What technology advancement (4680s?) was Tesla so wrong about that 4 years after the product announcement that they are 43% more expensive for 36% less range?

No doubt I'll get down votes, but I'm not able to drink the Kool-aide on this one and, sadly, strongly suspect that my 4 reservations will result in zero sales. But I'm excited to see my first CT in the flesh!

 

[JupiterMan]

Carwow behind the scenes at Cybertruck delivery event - fun watch!

they're also doing some filming today, sounds like a test drive

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla has absolutely missed the range mark with the originally announced $69K/est. 500 mile CT. It's now $100K and 320 miles.

No, it's $72,500 and 340 miles. This CT release clearly favours the dual motor Cybertruck. That $80K price is on the Fed for inflation, and IRS/Treasury for the IRA cap. It's already outstanding value vs. a comparably-equipped Ford F-150 Raptor.

Tesla is obviously anti-selling the tri-motor version while working on the v3 cybercell. Tesla hasn't even finished their cathode plant at Giga Texas yet, so they are buying cathode from a 3rd party. What did you expect for performance / price before Tesla brings in-house the most expensive constituent of the battery?

Hints: single crystal silicone anode material, v3, kato road, bty day road map

That's the planned progression: Dual motor w. good specs now, more-for-less in a few years. Also, will the RWD CT get LFP cells? Treasury keeps bouncing around on it's rules. Tesla has decided to wait until 2025 to let that play out.

How is any of this any different than the life cycle of all of Tesla's other products? Well it's not, especially the breathless financial media and 'inflenzers' who make their money off clickz and viewz.

TL;dr Relax, it'll be fine. Tesla has got this.

 

[cliff harris]

For all the people upset at no 500mile range, you do realize your need to go 500miles WITHOUT STOPPING is a niche thing yes?
Sure, there may be 5% of potential buyers who for some reason genuinely need a 500 mile range pikcup truck. Thats fine, but I'd rather Tesla make a decent, affordable truck for the other 95%.
I have a 2022 model Y performance. If you tried to sell me an extra 50 miles for $1,000 I wouldn't click buy. The range is good enough, MORE than good enough for my needs. I don't think I'm a rarity.
Dont forget, tesla have driving metrics on ALL its customers. They have hard data on how many super-long roadtrips people actually take...

 

[jeewee3000]

I'd like to share my thoughts to help contribute to the range of CT responses...

• Cybertruck is original, badass, capable and polarizing
• Tesla has changed gears significantly with their pricing approach
  • For me, HUGE disappointment with today's pricing vs product reveal pricing. You just can't explain away 43% - 60% price increases with inflation. You really won't be able to justify these increases with many reservation holders IMO
  • My only guess/hope is that since Tesla doesn't have a dealer network, that they have decided to add the "dealer markup" (frequently applied to hard to get vehicles) themselves. I appreciate what it does for margins as an investor, but it feels just as sleezy as when dealers do it.
  • If Tesla's goal isn't to reduce the pricing back down to something closer to inflation adjusted product reveal numbers after the "must have it now" early adopters are exhausted, then I feel they'll have lost all credibility for pricing at launch. This isn't the same as what they did with the TM3. TM3 was revealed as a "starting at $35K" vehicle, but was delivered as a $49K to $78K product because there were "uppers" over the announced $35K trim like $9K LR batteries, $5K PUP, etc. It took them approximately 20 months in production before the $35K vehicle was briefly offered- but it was offered. CT is different. They announced the trim/configuration pricing of $39K/$49K/$69K at launch and after 4 years of anxiously waiting they've simply adjusted those all up 43% - 60% at the delivery event and I think it's a bad look that will come with justifiably bad press.
• Tesla has absolutely missed the range mark with the originally announced $69K/est. 500 mile CT. It's now $100K and 320 miles. What technology advancement (4680s?) was Tesla so wrong about that 4 years after the product announcement that they are 43% more expensive for 36% less range?

No doubt I'll get down votes, but I'm not able to drink the Kool-aide on this one and, sadly, strongly suspect that my 4 reservations will result in zero sales. But I'm excited to see my first CT in the flesh!

The CT pricing is a result of a mixture of things, really:

- there is inflation (and yes, this should be a factor when viewing things. So add +25% to the base prices shown on the reveal at least.)
- Tesla seems to have switched gears in the design philosophy a little bit, because they think it improves the product (that is the end goal: driving the energy transition by providing green alternatives to existing products by making the EV variants as compelling as possible). Whereas the reveal was about delivering a rugged truck that could match your run of the mill ICE truck, the current CT build way outclasses other trucks. Is that necessary? For many probably not. Some will be turned off by this decision, like yourself, since it of course comes with a higher price. Others will love it. I think demand will still be there, but maybe it has shifted to another group of consumers.

I don't think Tesla should be held to a first design philosophy. iPhone or Samsung flagship phones have the luxury of switching it up every year/18months, but when manufacturing vehicles (ahem, "manufacturing is hard") you want to be sure your end design is the best you can make, the easiest you can make it, at as low of cost as you can make it.

CT pricing will come down after the order book depletes, that's quite a given IMO. But probably not towards the orginal price point (which is not realistic anymore in today's market. You'd have to pick between an ID.4 or a Cybertruck for $39k, I mean come on.

One has to compare pricing to current market pricing and the CT isn't bad value for money IMO. The $60k variant is fine for professionals that want to switch to EV, since most don't travel 250 miles in a day. The other variants are more luxury items IMO, like Range Rovers/Land Rovers/etc. Boys with toys.

If CT now was only $40k, the Model Y sales would plummet. And the order book for CT would be 5 years. That's not what anyone wants.

I'm EU based so CT will most likely never arrive here, so I try to stop myself from dreaming, but the reveal has made me ponder a Cyberbeast over my future dream of a model X Plaid.

One day...

 

[Artful Dodger]

TL;dr dual-motor CT is equivalent to an F-150 4x4 that gets 93 mpg. And you can install a gas station on your roof to boot...

Correction: that's 93 Miles per Imperial Gallon, since 1 U.S. gal is 0.833 Imp gal, the figure above should be 77.5 MPGe U.S.

H/T: @Drumheller for the catch #434,829

Thanks!

 

[munkypuzel]

Not sure if its been mentioned on thread or overlooked - Elon said the CT now has full ethernet connectivity between control modules.. This is one of the most important parts of achieving the 'unboxed' assembly.

Along with steer by wire - the constraints of traditional wiring loom solved and in a production vehicle bodes well for Next Gen..

 

[Max Plaid]

…well now we know why the event was scheduled in the middle of a “workday”. A large part of me thinks they would of been better off not holding an event.

Anyhow, on to more important things. CENSORSHIP.

Part of evaluating data is evaluating the source of that data, and to examine for any bias. As we know, Elon tweets are not allowed in this thread, despite how they can heavily influence stock price. Hence, I started a thread to discuss Elon’s tweets or news about Elon and how those things might potentially impact TSLA.

That thread was DELETED PREEMPTIVELY as “ these threads always go off the rails”. A lot of people actually think these things are part of the rails. To not openly discuss them is akin to plugging your ears while screaming I can’t hear you.

It is important to know when evaluating TMC as a source of data for your investments that there is not only censorship of inappropriate discussion, but
preemptive censorship of what is ALLOWED to be discussed. Obviously this introduces massive bias, which is not only unfortunate but a disservice to all who try to make this place and have made this place what it is.


Before those of you who are semantically inclined chime in, yes I realize it is a private owned entity, and any topics can be censored. But most of you here get my point.

@Doug_G
@danny

I'm frustrated that we don't have a space where we can discuss these things, and if it descends to politics and insults, so be it, we're all adults here and it's our choice to visit that particular thread or not, fully in the knowledge that there may be alternative opinions we may vehemently disagree with

 

[Max Plaid]

I'd like to share my thoughts to help contribute to the range of CT responses...

• Cybertruck is original, badass, capable and polarizing
• Tesla has changed gears significantly with their pricing approach
  • For me, HUGE disappointment with today's pricing vs product reveal pricing. You just can't explain away 43% - 60% price increases with inflation. You really won't be able to justify these increases with many reservation holders IMO
  • My only guess/hope is that since Tesla doesn't have a dealer network, that they have decided to add the "dealer markup" (frequently applied to hard to get vehicles) themselves. I appreciate what it does for margins as an investor, but it feels just as sleezy as when dealers do it.
  • If Tesla's goal isn't to reduce the pricing back down to something closer to inflation adjusted product reveal numbers after the "must have it now" early adopters are exhausted, then I feel they'll have lost all credibility for pricing at launch. This isn't the same as what they did with the TM3. TM3 was revealed as a "starting at $35K" vehicle, but was delivered as a $49K to $78K product because there were "uppers" over the announced $35K trim like $9K LR batteries, $5K PUP, etc. It took them approximately 20 months in production before the $35K vehicle was briefly offered- but it was offered. CT is different. They announced the trim/configuration pricing of $39K/$49K/$69K at launch and after 4 years of anxiously waiting they've simply adjusted those all up 43% - 60% at the delivery event and I think it's a bad look that will come with justifiably bad press.
• Tesla has absolutely missed the range mark with the originally announced $69K/est. 500 mile CT. It's now $100K and 320 miles. What technology advancement (4680s?) was Tesla so wrong about that 4 years after the product announcement that they are 43% more expensive for 36% less range?

No doubt I'll get down votes, but I'm not able to drink the Kool-aide on this one and, sadly, strongly suspect that my 4 reservations will result in zero sales. But I'm excited to see my first CT in the flesh!

I too was perturbed by the pricing and range versus the original reveal, but on reflection I consider the following:
- inflation: yes, maybe it's 15 - 20% Main Street inflation over the last four years, but as stated up-thread, high-end trucks have gone up around 35% in the same period
- IRA: the $7500 rebate wasn't in play four years ago, so subtract that for the AWD version
- SuperCharger proliferation: the network is pretty ubiquitous compared to four years back, 500 miles of range is nice to have, and definitely useful for those towing, but it's really an edge-case now

Nevertheless, the numbers that were lodged in everyone's consciousness four years back do leave a nasty taste in the mouth today, regardless of reality and the FUDsters will conjure with them for the foreseeable future

 

[JoRoMo]

…

Nevertheless, the numbers that were lodged in everyone's consciousness four years back do leave a nasty taste in the mouth today, regardless of reality and the FUDsters will conjure with them for the foreseeable future

I think that matters only to our feelings, buyers actually hunting for a new truck will compare actual features and performance to the rest of the market and decide from that.

I an pretty sure they will not be out of buyers for a loong time.