Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[philw1776]

THIS ^^^^

 

[HG Wells]

Any ideas how the lack of IRA rebates for model 3 will affect stock price ?
I was sure we were going to see a drop this week.

Just got back from Phobos. It's been a while.

 

[FastEddieB]

Any ideas how the lack of IRA rebates for model 3 will affect stock price ?

Nope.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If pressed with that question again, they would simply respond with "We said 2024 and we are still in 2023 currently"

Hah! Smells more like a bear trap to me: (TSLA moving opposite macros)

Cheers!

 

[GrandEnigma]

Um. Speaking as a retired ex-Bell Laboratories guy, there's Research and there's R&D.

Pure Research is where one's boss says, "Look into this, would ya? Nobody really understands what's going on. Maybe there's something in it for us." Next thing you know, there's a transistor or some other Nobel Price winning item. What you don't see: The Research didn't find anything (as in, "running up alleys to find out if they're blind"); maybe a paper got generated, maybe it didn't. This kind of environment is like a turned-down venture capitalist enterprise: One doesn't find much, but once in a while, hoo-boy. There's not a lot of people doing this, at least in commercially driven companies. There's more doing this kind of work in Universities and such, although what with, "Write up this proposal so we can make some serious money!", a lot of the pure research that gets done these days in education is done in spite of the university administration.

Then there's the "research", small-"r". The boss says, "Look into this, would ya? It looks promising and, if it pans out, we'll make more money. If it doesn't look good, I got a half-dozen other things you should be looking at."

Often, in this environment, if one Finds Something, then it doesn't typically get handed over to somebody else - one starts working on making it a reality, which is labeled, "Development".

Thing is, where a company splits Research, research, and development, and under what conditions, is really up to the company and What Works For Them, or at least what is internally perceived as working for them. I've worked for a half-dozen companies or so before retiring and have talked to people who've worked at others, and nobody works it the same way.

So, in this case, I'll believe Musk and his, "We don't do research" comment. Because, probably, he's likely thinking ivory tower or the pure stuff. Which Tesla, as a mad-dash-to-taking-over-the-automotive-world or at least surviving type of company, doesn't likely do.

(Minor comment: I've always been an R&D guy, not an "R" guy. But I've known some "R" guys.)

Finally, I'm fairly sure that, for tax purposes, companies can write off some proportion of their research budget. Has anybody noticed that write-off in the various financial reports?

The R&D process for no part is the best part has got to be fascinating

 

[WattsHappening]

Hah! Smells more like a bear trap to me: (TSLA moving opposite macros)

View attachment 999419

Cheers!

Continued rotation out of the 'Mag 7' into interest rate sensitive stocks. I guess TSLA is getting lumped in with the latter group. Makes sense since TSLA didn't appreciate with the other Mag 7 over the past month.

While I don't wish harm to the CC writers on the other forum, I really hope this is the start of a TSLA run that's going to have people shaking their heads by the end of the month/year.

 

[Drumheller]

Green is nice but it seems just like more options positioning. Would be more exciting to see it break upward out of options grip.

 

[Knightshade]

Any ideas how the lack of IRA rebates for model 3 will affect stock price ?
I was sure we were going to see a drop this week.

Just got back from Phobos. It's been a while.

Currently most suspect there just ain't enough 2170 and 4680s to do much about it... if THAT is true then you've got 2 things at work:


Current pricing won't make a ton of sense...you'd have RWD and LR Model 3 costing more than the Performance 3.... and most RWD and LR Y would be significantly less than their 3 counterparts too.... so it seems they'd have to cut pricing on the RWD and LR 3 (or possibly just cut on RWD and stop selling the LR again as they did for a good while)

When refresh 3 finally gets to US that presumably lets you raise prices back some, but not much given you're butting against Y-with-rebate pricing

Neither seems great for margins and/or volume?


OTOH some folks seem convinced Tesla will find a rabbit to pull out of their hat and bring back the rebates on the 3s somehow.... I wanna say there was one reading of the rules that lets you homolgate by factory instead of product line, so maybe they could start making some 3s in Austin with non-qualifying cells and still get them under the limits but haven't dug too deeply into that idea.

 

[scaesare]

Um. Speaking as a retired ex-Bell Laboratories guy, there's Research and there's R&D.

Pure Research is where one's boss says, "Look into this, would ya? Nobody really understands what's going on. Maybe there's something in it for us." Next thing you know, there's a transistor or some other Nobel Price winning item. What you don't see: The Research didn't find anything (as in, "running up alleys to find out if they're blind"); maybe a paper got generated, maybe it didn't. This kind of environment is like a turned-down venture capitalist enterprise: One doesn't find much, but once in a while, hoo-boy. There's not a lot of people doing this, at least in commercially driven companies. There's more doing this kind of work in Universities and such, although what with, "Write up this proposal so we can make some serious money!", a lot of the pure research that gets done these days in education is done in spite of the university administration.

Then there's the "research", small-"r". The boss says, "Look into this, would ya? It looks promising and, if it pans out, we'll make more money. If it doesn't look good, I got a half-dozen other things you should be looking at."

Often, in this environment, if one Finds Something, then it doesn't typically get handed over to somebody else - one starts working on making it a reality, which is labeled, "Development".

Thing is, where a company splits Research, research, and development, and under what conditions, is really up to the company and What Works For Them, or at least what is internally perceived as working for them. I've worked for a half-dozen companies or so before retiring and have talked to people who've worked at others, and nobody works it the same way.

So, in this case, I'll believe Musk and his, "We don't do research" comment. Because, probably, he's likely thinking ivory tower or the pure stuff. Which Tesla, as a mad-dash-to-taking-over-the-automotive-world or at least surviving type of company, doesn't likely do.

(Minor comment: I've always been an R&D guy, not an "R" guy. But I've known some "R" guys.)

Finally, I'm fairly sure that, for tax purposes, companies can write off some proportion of their research budget. Has anybody noticed that write-off in the various financial reports?

Then there's the foundational R&D programs like PARC, which built an amazing array of product we use today, and for which Xerox had no idea what to do with (for the most part).

[Side note- Excellent read on the topic: Dealers of Lightning (Hiltzik) - Fascinating story of PARC, how it came to be, and what they did)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hah! Smells more like a bear trap to me: (TSLA moving opposite macros)

View attachment 999419

Cheers!

Thanks for posting this and making $TSLA go the opposite direction

 

[jerry33]

You're clear about what you imagine. reality differs. In 2015 I drove from Miami to Vancouver, BC and back in my P85D. Superchargers were not an option for most stops. Then, and on trips from Milan to Dubrovnik and return through some other countries too I used my traditional procedures. I charged every night at hotels (some strange connections in 2015) and never failed to have a charge. I still have the bagful fo connectors. Welding shops were invariably good for a faster charge during the day.

Now, with increased range, it's not usual to need creative solutions to charge during the day. It does happen, but there are pretty good solutions in my experience. FWIW, I have never had a successful Electrify America charge, although I've tried. Anyway, if one can survive a hotel meal, nearly all hotels allow charging during a meal stop.

Still, the huge selling point for Tesla and NACS where applicable is that one need know only where the Superchargers are. Then it's little more than an ICE stop. Factually most of us know that the Superchargers are a profitable way to remove objections to BEV. Long road trips remain a relatively small part of nearly everyone's life, but the objections are strong. The hauling/towing pickup story is perfectly analogous, isn't it? Cybertruck is well suited to remove objections.

In 2015 we drove from DFW to Seattle. There was one time (each way) we needed to use an L2 charger, everything else was Superchargers (or destination chargers for overnight charging).

 

[growler23]

Any ideas how the lack of IRA rebates for model 3 will affect stock price ?
I was sure we were going to see a drop this week.

Just got back from Phobos. It's been a while.

Deimos is cooler this time of year. Only lamers go to Phobos.
Deimos will be first to get V4 SC.
/s?

(*edited to remove unintended unrelated quote)

 

[Crowded Mind]

I know many folks in the thread aren't big Troy fans-- but he's got 2024 deliveries around 2-2.1M. His average error rate on deliveries is only 2.5%

I did not expect to see such a blatant misrepresentation from you who is usually so particular. What does Troy’s average error the day before a delivery announcement have to do with his estimates for 12+ months from now? You know his quarterly numbers can swing 10%+ within a single quarter… The number you shared is completely irrelevant and misleading.

 

[scaesare]

Deimos is cooler this time of year. Only lamers go to Phobos.
Deimos will be first to get V4 SC.
/s?

(*edited to remove unintended unrelated quote)

I prefer:

 

[Knightshade]

I did not expect to see such a blatant misrepresentation from you who is usually so particular. What does Troy’s average error the day before a delivery announcement have to do with his estimates for 12+ months from now? You know his quarterly numbers can swing 10%+ within a single quarter… The number you shared is completely irrelevant and misleading.

Do you have his error rates for full year predictions (not week to week within a quarter) to hand, or are you just assuming they're much worse?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Do you have his error rates for full year predictions (not week to week within a quarter) to hand, or are you just assuming they're much worse?

No, I am not the one using the misleading statistic nor do I understand why you would assume they would be the same…

 

[EQC_]

If pressed with that question again, they would simply respond with "We said 2024 and we are still in 2023 currently"

To be totally fair, if TSLA stock is indeed TSLA stock (and I'm pretty sure it is!), then the easiest guarantee to make is that it will have ups and downs. If the stock goes way up (whether now, or during 2024), there's a good chance it will also drop significantly some time after that...and then go up, and down and continue to bounce around.

In a way, these analysts are "right" about a theoretical opportunity to short TSLA at *some point* in 2024, but they are as useful as somebody telling you "there will be some cold days this winter." Of course there will also be times the stock shoots up, just like winter will have average days and unseasonably warm days. It is the timing that matters in these things...and THAT is what the analysts can't predict.

For TSLA stock, a vague target of a year is too long to be useful to traders, and too short to see the trend that we HOLDers aim for....so as has been said many times, most of these analysts aren't doing anything useful for anybody reading their reports.

 

[wipster]

I generally agree, but I think your last paragraph is a bit pessimistic. Even assuming just 2.2m car deliveries, we will also have this in 2024:

• Updates to the bot
• V12 FSD rollout
• China FSD, possibly Europe too.
• Maybe start of real semi production
• Possible Model 2 reveal
• Tesla energy scaling up

Thats plenty of stuff to fuel a stock price rise. Its also possible that one of the EV competitors (lucid? rivian?) actually implodes due to poor financials. I would be very surprised if we are not at $300 soon in 24, and actually expect $400 next year. Wall st assign no value to bot or FSD. If either start looking like serious businesses, then things will change.

Personally I think the biggest impact is going to be the semi+cybertruck being made in serious quantities. Right now Tesla is seen as a company that makes sedans and SUVs. Add trucks and pickups and it looks more diversified, safe and reliable as an investment.

I think the increased production of both the Semi and Cybertruck in 2024 will be a positive influence on the SP in 2024, but it will probably lag around 300 - 350 until the actual introduction of Gen 3. When Elon and crew bring Gen 3 on stage, discuss and demonstrate just how much production complexity has been reduced and how that impacts COGS, how the Gen 3 platform will also be used for RoboTaxi, and finally display the selling price and when production will begin at GigaTexas (hopefully very soon after introduction), that's when we'll start to see the start of big pop in SP we've all been anticipating.

Hopefully this will occur in the 3rd quarter of 2024, with production and delivery starting in Q4. I would expect production to be at a 500,000 rate by the end of 2025 and over 1 million when GigaMexico is complete and they start sending Gen3 worldwide by the end 2025.

I think this is a reasonable timeframe, but don't anticipate huge growth in the stock price to start until Gen 3 is introduced. And then, hold on to your cowboy hats! Time for CyberRodeo part deux!

 

[ggr]

We need to find out how that jives with GGR's experience of five strikes and you're permanently out.

@mongo's post says "restricted for a week", but my recollection of the popup said "permanently". Maybe I'm misremembering though. I'm not about to tempt fate by trying to reproduce it.

 

[GOVA]

Apparently Tesla is doomed because Cybertruck Wiper "costs too much to replace"