Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paul_SF]

That is only a ~$3-4k price reduction. Do you really think that would have much of an impact? I would guess interest rates are actually more critical.

I said “under 12%”. It can be 10,9,8… We will see

 

[Usain]

Lol, that is so 2018...

True. And fart jokes are like shooting fish in a barrel.

But on a (slightly) serious note, I think that given Tesla's record on such matters, the Optimus "pull my finger" gag is about 99% likely to happen.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Only if it is a surprise dividend. Not like the last one where the pirates had lots of advance warning.

Can't be a 3:1 share dividend unless Tesla amends their corporate bylaws, which as of the last 3:1 split is nearly maxxed out for authorized shares.

You know what would move the SP? A cash dividend (even a pittance), since that would smoke out all the phantom share issued and off-shored over the past, what, 6 years? WAG, i bet there's 2 counterfeits for every legit TSLA shares, most of which have been bounced off-shore out of SEC/FINRA reporting requirements.

Those buggers will still have to pay cash though, and make it a lightning quick surprise! Don't give the dirty fraudsters even 30 days to scrape up some cash. What's the legal minimum? Back in Aug 2020, the 5:1 share dividend was done with 3 weeks notice.

 

[Todd Burch]

I said “under 12%”. It can be 10,9,8… We will see

As an investor, please God no.

 

[mongo]

Well I for one don't think it's always been clear: there were always 2 halfs to the eligibility requirement, one for the EV part, and the other for the battery. It was common interpretation during H2 2023 that using Chinese batteries would only disqualify your purchase for the $3,750 bty component, but you'd still get the $3,750 EV component if your new car met all the Made-in-USA sourcing req'd.

Yeah, and on the EV side it has always been the requirements of "New Clean Vehicle" with final assembly in North American, under the MSRP limit, and, starting in 2024, no components from excluded entities.
Law:

(7) Excluded entities. For purposes of this section, the term "new clean vehicle" shall not include-- (A) any vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2024, with respect to which any of the applicable critical minerals contained in the battery of such vehicle (as described in subsection (e)(1)(A)) were extracted, processed, or recycled by a foreign entity of concern (as defined in section 40207(a)(5) of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (42 U.S.C. 18741(a)(5))), or
(B) any vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2023, with respect to which any of the components contained in the battery of such vehicle (as described in subsection (e)(2)(A)) were manufactured or assembled by a foreign entity of concern (as so defined).

Spoiler: Past warnings...

Excluded entity (China) clause kicks in for components (B) in 2024.

The law is passed and the IRS guidance so far is in alignment with it.
The big thing coming up is the implementation of the Excluded Entities clause.

I expect China sourced LFP to lose all (non-commercial) Clean Vehicle Credit:

yes
Excluded entity component sourcing kicks in along with 10% higher thresholds for mineral and component sourcing. Depending on IRS guidance, that could zero allowable credit for LFP vehicles.

The excluded entity clause for components activates in 2024
Treasury has not released guidance on what that will mean. Worst case, China sourced components could make a vehicle ineligible for any credit.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Meu amigo,
We are in the same boat. Sold shares this year to buy my dream beach home in Florida (my backyard is the beach/ocean).
I've been vacationing here for the past 40 years and always wanted to buy something.
Closing in January so I sold 70% of the shares in 2023 and will sell remainder next week to lesson the tax hit.
I've stated this before but for any new members, I'll repeat it.
I bought some TSLA before stumbling onto this Forum. Many here gave me the conviction to not only buy more and go all in, but more importantly, you gave me the conviction to HODL. I am eternally indebted to you. My remaining portfolio is still largely TSLA.

Side Note: My dear father found this vacation location when I was a teenager. He had a modest condo (he was a poor immigrant from Portugal when he arrived in the 50's). His very good friends called him by his middle name "Matias". No one else called him this. If I heard someone call out Matias, I new it was a good friend. My father passed away last year. I named this new house "Casa Matias". I have a plaque to put above the door on the day we close.

Happy New Year to you all.
View attachment 1004615

Your dad sounds like a hard working immigrant like mine was, He must be smiling down from above knowing you dedicated your dream beach home to him by naming it after him.

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon’s prediction of “this year we kill the ICE” will happen. Like always, later than predicted. At the same time with his other “prediction” that margins can go to(wards) 0%.

I predict margins will go under 12% (and everything will fly off the lots).

It’s time they give the real death blow to ICE. Get ready.

Happy New Year and Thank You to all who share pertinent information in this thread, not useless noise. You know who you are.

IMO 2024 may be one more year of sharpening the axe.

Tesla will be aiming to ramp vehicle production and Megapack production both ramps will be dependent on the availability of cells.

I keeping coming back to the 4680 cell ramp, that can impact on production volumes for Model 3/Y, Cybertruck, and (indirectly) Semi.

If the cells can be sourced, I think production can then be scaled to use the available supply

The price and hence margins will be set by what it takes sell all of the vehicles produced. That is partially dependent on the macro environment, interest rates and the (lack of) competition.

Megapack volumes and margins may provide more headroom to cut vehicle prices, but there is no need to cut to beyond the price that will shift inventory.

To be 100% clear, higher production volumes will be more important than margins, but they will strive for a good balance, so they will try to expand production efficiently and at a good pace rather than a super fast pace.

Volume production of Gen3 is the final nail in the coffin of ICE, if ICE doesn't die before that.

2024 should build the confidence to proceed with building out Gen3 production in multiple factories ASAP.

Inflation is increasing the price of ICE, ICE factories are occasionally shuttered due to part, supply, scandals, and strikes. So ICE production has a myriad of problems beyond increasing competition from EVs.

The Chinese are doing a good job of producing "entry level" EVs which are competing with cheaper ICE cars in many markets.

Tesla needs Gen3 and the cells to support volume production, that may happen in 2025/2026?

 

[Sunlight]

Apparently, I can be bought and it’ll only take $800 SP in 2024. Who knew?

But will the cat show up at her own party?

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[JusRelax]

As expected, M3 LR and M3 RWD lost eligibility for the $7,500 rebate. The M3 performance is still eligible for the rebate, which makes it cheaper than a M3 LR.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1741728797676716311

 

[Buckminster]

Happy New Year!

James has included deferred tax into his estimate:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1741653421336207739

Credit chat:
EV and Battery Credits
Website not yet updated. Presumably M3P won't be sold for less than M3 LR...

 

[Artful Dodger]

As expected, M3 LR and M3 RWD lost eligibility for the $7,500 rebate. The M3 performance is still eligible for the rebate, which makes it cheaper than a M3 LR.

Haha, believe it or not, Sawyer is not an official spokesman of Tesla. They are closed today in the U.S. but don't be surprised at all when Tesla shows new prices on their website for Model 3. The rebate messes up the price ladder. There will be adjustments (necessary because Tesla physically can not build more Model 3 P's than LR's)

 

[JusRelax]

Haha, believe it or not, Sawyer is not an official spokesman of Tesla. They are closed today in the U.S. but don't be surprised at all when Tesla shows new prices on their website for Model 3. The rebate messes up the price ladder. There will be adjustments (necessary because Tesla physically can not build more Model 3 P's than LR's)

Sawyer took this screenshot from Tesla's website:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1741728977469776001

While it's possible Tesla may change it later on, this was directly from Tesla's website.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Time for Best Single 2024 Predictions



On Edit: JUST ONE, PLEASE!

Each participant is invited to present his or her single best prognostication for a Tesla-related occurrence in the next 365.24 days. Please keep it simple and relevant, and remember that good humor always is in fashion.

Mine definitely is simple; it also is one many will think a pimple on the dark side of the moon in importance….

But thinking about it certainly warms the cockles of MY heart:

PREDICTION -

In 2024, Tesla will have some very, very exciting news coming out of Anchorage Alaska. (at long last!)

Elon builds his glass house. Not one to believe in existing rules he will build the Tesla trebuchet to throw stones - and subsequently sieging Zuckerberg's house to force him out into the MMA fight.

 

[lascavarian]

Prediction 2024:

Tesla AI will introduce fluidic agency mode (code named Agent Smith) allowing Optimus to transfer agency among an increasing family of embodied forms - some airborn.

 

[hobbes]

I haven't been following it closely but a quick google search shows Panasonic's new 2170 plant in De Soto, Kansas is due to come online in 2024 and Tesla is listed as their main customer. So if they hit their deadline there will be some additional capacity next year regardless of the much needed 4680 ramp.

Panasonic breaks ground on $4 billion EV battery plant in Kansas

Cool, wasn´t aware of that factory. I looked for some more recent info and found this from August:

You can see the buildings going up. Video also says they decided to increase the footprint beyond what was originally planned.

Panasonic has this in a press release from September, they say mass production only in early 2025:

Panasonic Energy broke ground in De Soto in November 2022, and in April of this year, construction progressed to “going vertical” as the first steel beams were erected. The facility in De Soto will be the Company’s second EV battery facility in the U.S., following the PENA battery manufacturing operation in Sparks, Nevada. Initially, the new manufacturing facility in Kansas will expand the existing production of Panasonic’s 2170 EV batteries, which are currently in high demand from customers. Launching the facility with 2170 batteries ensures Panasonic can begin fulfilling customer orders quickly. Mass production is targeted to begin by the end of March 2025, with the initial production capacity of the new facility expected to be 30 GWh. In a phased approach, the Company plans to continue to strengthen its lineup of EV batteries and expand its production capacity in North America.

Panasonic Energy Names Senior Leadership to Kansas EV Battery Facility

Panasonic Energy Co., Ltd., a Panasonic Group company, today announced senior leadership for its new lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility in De Soto, Kansas. These talented professionals will play a vital role in accelerating production to meet surging domestic electric vehicle battery...

na.panasonic.com

 

[CorneliusXX]

Some photos of refreshed model 3s at Fremont.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/18vhecj

 

[aronth5]

My risky prediction is the number of new superchargers locations will increase again in 2024 for N America.
(As of today already 352 new permits)

 

[Maarten]

On a more serious note and forward looking (I haven’t yet seen these implications being discussed yet).
Tesla bot is coming, no doubt.
But the enormous positive impact it will have on Tesla and TSLA is not the only thing heading towards us.

If Teslabot replaces human factory work at a big scale, it will put a LOT of people out of work, not only at Tesla, but everywhere.
That is going to have serious social consequences and likely negative bias towards Tesla (people always searching where to put the blame).
I think it is important that Tesla will not only look at the technical side, but also at the best way on how this might be prevented.
For people involved this could be a generous arrangement when replaced, depending on the amount of years working at the company.
But that is just a quick thought, there may be many more good and creative solutions.
However, this putting an enormous amount of people out of work will need serious attention.

 

[Tony73]

On a more serious note and forward looking (I haven’t yet seen these implications being discussed yet).
Tesla bot is coming, no doubt.
But the enormous positive impact it will have on Tesla and TSLA is not the only thing heading towards us.

If Teslabot replaces human factory work at a big scale, it will put a LOT of people out of work, not only at Tesla, but everywhere.
That is going to have serious social consequences and likely negative bias towards Tesla (people always searching where to put the blame).
I think it is important that Tesla will not only look at the technical side, but also at the best way on how this might be prevented.
For people involved this could be a generous arrangement when replaced, depending on the amount of years working at the company.
But that is just a quick thought, there may be many more good and creative solutions.
However, this putting an enormous amount of people out of work will need serious attention.

History has shown that the whole “putting people out of work” thing is seriously overblown.
Ever without humanoid robots, the auto factories of today use less than half the workers per unit of output of a factory from the 1980s.
The economy always adapts. No serious individual believes technological progress should be held back for the sake of preserving jobs.

The social consequences to the extent that they exist will be far less than for offshoring. Offshoring can be blamed on corporate greed as opposed to progress.