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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
In 2024, I predict that I will be a Teslanaire. Again. And then I won't. And then I will. And then I won't. And then I will. And then...
HODLing since 2012, and the ride is FAR from over- WHEEEEEEEE!!!
Best Wishes for a New Year full of Hope and Promise!
Krugerrand
Meow
Yeah, I don’t want my bot doing this.Actually I was thinking the opposite for @Krugerrand's personal Optimus. Learning only by observing cat behavior
That depends in part on how Teslabot is phased in.
1. At Tesla - Optimus will initially be helping to build Gen3 cars. Mostly new lines at so more workers will be recruited. Where Optimus can do a low skilled job that a worker currently does, Tesla should retrain that worker for some other role before Optimus takes over. Workers are always leaving / retiring for various reasons, workers with a substantial Tesla shareholding may prefer to retire early or leave Tesla for some other challenge. The ability to use Optimus in service and delivery roles is underappreciated.
2. Other car markers - The impact here is cheaper and better cars from Tesla and the Chinese taking market share, causing legacy auto to close factories and lay off workers. Governments might implement with more trade barriers, but that will probably be futile in the end., Optimus will be part of the reason why these workers lost their jobs, but not the only reason.
3. USA - many things made on other countries due cheap labour, can eventually be made in the US.
4. Developed countries in general, robots solve the problem if an aging population and population decline without needing to resort to immigration. The problem with immigration is it drives a need for more housing which tends to increase the cost of housing.
5. Developing countries - robots take away one of the advantages developing countries have cheap labour. I'll post a video on El Salvador below. It isn't hard to imagine the low skilled textile factory jobs currently being done in El Salvador being replaced by factories employing robots in the US. From the video below we can see that El Salvador needs to import energy and food. Cheaper EVs, batteries, solar panels and wind turbines will help developing countries like El Salvador. There are solutions that might make food more abundant, and lower the cost of food, and there might be ways El Salvador can produce more if it's own food. Internet connectivity and improved education might help workers/businesses in El Salvador plug into the global economy.
Tesla will not be the only one employing or building robots, this is part of a much bigger set of changes. it isn't clear if individuals or countries will be better off. Most of us will be better off if more extreme Climate Change can be avoided.
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JusRelax
Active Member
I'm just realizing now how Tesla plans to solve the issue of the M3 Performance currently being cheaper than the M3 LR after rebate - It seems they plan to phase in M3 refresh into the Performance variant first, and then my speculation is thatt Tesla will raise prices on M3 performance at the same time.
Tesla can then figure out how to adjust prices as necessary when they implement the refresh into the RWD and LR variants.
Of course, this is assuming that Tesla doesn't make an announcment that they've found a way to make the LR and RWD variants eligible for the rebate.
You seem to only post here to promote BYD and I am skeptical of some of your claims but I am also a BYD fan. They are a competitor to Tesla but also a partner and they share the same goal of a clean, electric future. To use an inappropriate description, they seem to be firing on all cylinders. So why do you think their share price ended the year so weak? Just because of Berkshire selling?
BYD plans to start using sodium-ion batteries. I wonder if this something Tesla is looking into:
BYD Seagull - Wikipedia
A recent innovation is the use of the sodium-ion battery technology, which is lithium- and cobalt-free, less mining-dependent and has a lower theoretical manufacturing cost. BYD has announced to use sodium-ion batteries in future batches of the Seagull as one of the first three cars in its fleet to do so.
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Good prediction by this Xposter...
JusRelax
Active Member
You don't even have to wait for Tesla to release their delivery numbers apparently
China EV Giant Just Seized BEV Crown From Tesla
BYD's 2023 sales topped 3 million, with Q4's fully electric vehicles above 500,000.
www.investors.com
I don't think @hooty is here just to promote BYD, but the Seagull at $13,500 for the premium edition is pretty damn affordable for the masses. The various YouTube reviews have all loved it. Basic, but much rather have people in the seats of these little non-polluters than ICE or hybrid.
All of which means that Tesla must be on the cusp of the Gen 3 announcement as a viable Tesla competitor has emerged! Will be an interesting 2024 dogs and cats!
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Don't know who will be first, but Toni Scaramouche and Bill Gates are Academy nominees.
I wonder what Tesla will do if anything to the employee if the information from TeslaScope is accurate?
Did you check his post history? You are right, he also promotes Cruise and bashes Tesla's FSD.
Thumper
Active Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Huh? I don't think there's any way in the world Tesla produces 2 completely different Model 3s at Fremont, both pre and post refresh, simultaneously. so unless you're talking "the first batches of the refresh are Ps, for the few weeks it'll take to sell out of any LR/RWD inventory" or that they'll simply stop selling the RWD/LR for a while entirely this doesn't make much sense?
JusRelax
Active Member
Err yes, you're correct. I meant that am speculating that they'll only implement on the M3 Performance at first while the LR and RWD that's in current inventory continue to sell out. Sorry if I hadn't made that clear.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
When does the tax credit become a point of sale deduction? Does that immediately come off the quoted price from Tesla? Not sure how that is going to work.
Dan
Dan
Forget rain fade interrupting signal, Starlink has the far superior (and internet relevant) cat fade.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The way it's intended to work is the $7500 tax credit is taken off the net owed to Tesla, as if you'd shown up with $7500 in extra cash, and Tesla gets that from the government.
So the "sales price" is still the same- so the sales tax/registration fees/etc don't consider the $7500. But you'll have to come up with $7500 less money to take the vehicle home.
Based on current proposed rules, if come tax time you didn't actually have enough tax liability to qualify for the whole $7500 the IRS will not claw back the difference.
But if your income (for the present or previous year) doesn't qualify you (ie you made over 150k single or 300k married/jointly) you will have the full $7500 clawed back at tax time.
As to when? Great question. Haven't seen any info on that yet. It SHOULD be available today, but no idea how quickly it'll actually get set up (requires 'dealers' to register with IRS, etc)
That's not the case in 2024 under the proposed IRS rules for the credit going point of sale. With the POS credit you get the $7500 transferred to the dealer at purchase time-- and at tax time If your tax obligation is less than $7500 the IRS doesn't care and won't ask for any money back.
They will only care if your income is above the 150k/300k limit, and if so you owe the full $7500 back.
Ok, I guess I can see that-- but given inventory was what like 17 days at last report (and probably lower specifically on the RWD and LR AWD since people knew the tax credit was going away in Dec and would've pulled sales forward- a recent thread reported 0 inventory in NY a few days ago for example) I don't know how that does much to help with pricing gap? Tesla will be out of LR and RWD 3s in about 2 weeks or less.
Right now net of tax credit the Performance 3 is $43,490… the LR is $45,990, and the RWD is $38,990 (and get no tax credit as of today).
Highland pricing seems to be around 2-4k more than outgoing model (based on pricing bump in other countries anyway).
So lets say they bump the P to $47,490 net of credit (4k increase)… that’s still only $1500 more than the LR---less than buying acceleration boost for the LR costs... does anyone buy the LR at that point? And you’re also in a position you CAN NOT bump the price on the LR the same 4k when you refresh it- you can’t bump it at all… Maybe they go back to just not selling it as they did for a good while?
In which case you’re left with the RWD at $38,990…. And you probably need to CUT the price significantly here given people last week were getting inventory pre-refresh ones for around 28k?[/QUOTE]
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