Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

If your "tesla thinks of everything ahead of time and their thoughts always pan out" were true the bulk of US model 3 sales wouldn't have lost the $7500 tax credit yesterday, CTs would already be ramped with their original promised range available, and FSD would be L5.

Even companies that think ahead, and do a great job thinking ahead, get things wrong (or have external factors that interfere with how they expected things to turn out in the future).

Tesla thought they'd have a lot more (and better and cheaper) 4680s available to themselves by now, freeing up a lot of 2170s that today are going into Model Ys. But they don't.

So I'm sure they've "thought" about where they'd get a ton more cells-- but they don't actually have a ton more cells... see again Austin and especially Berlin having trimmed back considerably from what their stated max output should be versus their actual output.

You can debate how much of that is demand at current pricing not being infinite and how much is cell supply not being infinite. Either way they'd need to solve for both things to find 700k more buyers in 2024.

@Knightshade - I value your contributions to this forum very much - you're a huge plus here . . . so take this joke the right way.

If I was holding a brainstorming session with the sales and marketing team, I would ask you to exit the room

The brainstorming session would be to answer the following question:
There were 9.6m EVs sold globally in 2023 and we took 1.8m of those sales (19%)
In 2024, there will be 13.3m EVs sold. How do we get 19% of those sales (2.5m units)?
Now Knightshade, please go take a coffee break.

 

[elasalle]

@Knightshade - I value your contributions to this forum very much - you're a huge plus here . . . so take this joke the right way.

If I was holding a brainstorming session with the sales and marketing team, I would ask you to exit the room

The brainstorming session would be to answer the following question:
There were 9.6m EVs sold globally in 2023 and we took 1.8m of those sales (19%)
In 2024, there will be 13.3m EVs sold. How do we get 19% of those sales (2.5m units)?
Now Knightshade, please go take a coffee break.

& that (last line) is not what Elon would say right

+ time for a Surge ...

 

[jamaatta]

Speaking of demand. The trend is our friend, at least in Finland. BEV share of first registrations was 34 % in 2023. On December of 2023, 36 %.

I quess also US will follow.

 

[Snerruc]

They could have produced more - but Berlin production ramp slowed down to be more inline with demand.

I believe Tesla wasn’t able to find enough workers for a third shift In Berlin. Apparently they are running two 12 hour shifts in Texas. People can’t work 60 hour weeks for long. Workers may be the biggest problem this year in increasing production.

 

[RichardL]

Just a small, after hours PSA
Turns out the display CTs are being moved around once a month.
I just went to the store in San Diego areas UTC store and it is gone, moved to Riverside apparently.
So sadly I missed it

 

[ThisStockGood]

Great P&D numbers, my friends.

Three days and you shall see…

Cheers to them longs!

 

[Krugerrand]

They did and started making inhouse cells. But that ramp has been .... slow.

Until it’s not.

 

[EVMeister]

Great P&D numbers, my friends.

Three days and you shall see…

View attachment 1005137

Cheers to them longs!

What are we seeing in 3 days?

 

[jamaatta]

What are we seeing in 3 days?

Old fashioned "Launch Mode"..?

 

[Krugerrand]

I hoping Tesla does not guide anything more that 2.1M. That is 300K growth. Plenty.

If interest rates come down that number will be easily beat. If it does not then 2.1M will be a struggle.

If they guide that, there definitely won’t be a party at my place in 2024. Less than zero chance. Tell me, if they guide for that what’s the headline? I’ll give you just one guess.

They might as well not guide at all if they’re going to guide that. Headlines will be pretty much the same except everyone and their brother here will be flogging demand problems and I’ll be forced to buy more shares. Do you really want to see me post ‘I told you so’ to all the brothers!?

 

[Todd Burch]

Well, today TSLA (down 0.024%) beat the NASDAQ (down 1.63%), RIVN (down 10.06%), LCID (down 1.43%), BYD (down 2.84%), even Ford (down 0.25%). But the untouchable powerhouse known as GM led (pun intended) the way, up 0.36%.

One day, TSLA will perform like GM, and we will be rich.

 

[Unpilot]

Well, today TSLA (down 0.024%) beat the NASDAQ (down 1.63%), RIVN (down 10.06%), LCID (down 1.43%), BYD (down 2.84%), even Ford (down 0.25%). But the untouchable powerhouse known as GM led (pun intended) the way, up 0.36%.

One day, TSLA will perform like GM, and we will be rich.

It's hard to be the "leader"

 

[joh01652]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742207674614170036

From Sawyer:
NEWS: The fourth quarter of 2023 saw the highest Tesla Model S/X deliveries of any quarter over the past five years.

 

[Kenypowa]

Well, today TSLA (down 0.024%) beat the NASDAQ (down 1.63%), RIVN (down 10.06%), LCID (down 1.43%), BYD (down 2.84%), even Ford (down 0.25%). But the untouchable powerhouse known as GM led (pun intended) the way, up 0.36%.

One day, TSLA will perform like GM, and we will be rich.

Joe was right! GM does lead all EV stock performance YTD.

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742207674614170036

From Sawyer:
NEWS: The fourth quarter of 2023 saw the highest Tesla Model S/X deliveries of any quarter over the past five years.

I'm not surprised. The Model X is $72,490 after tax credit. It's quite a steal.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Another source from Taiwan also shows 544 Model X. This source has more detailed as it lists it under import luxary SUVs on the right column, left column are sedans where Model S delivered 198
View attachment 1005065

In fact, in this source, it explicitely states that Model 3 only had total 511 delivery for the entire 2023 while it's waiting for Highland refresh. Here isthe list of strictly EV sold in December

1​	Tesla Model Y​	1,054​
2​	Tesla Model X​	544​
3​	Tesla Model S​	198​
4​	Volvo XC40 Recharge​	164​
5​	Ford Mustang Mach-E​	62​
6​	Toyota bZ4X​	58​
7​	Volvo C40 Recharge​	57​
8​	Kia EV6​	52​
8​	Porsche Taycan​	52​
9​	BMW i5​	46​
10​	BMW iX1​	35​
11​	BMW iX​	32​
12​	Luxgen n⁷​	24​
13​	CMC E300​	23​
13​	Hyundai Ioniq 5​	23​
14​	Mercedes-EQ EQE​	17​
15​	Audi Q8 e-tron Sportback​	14​
15​	BMW i4​	14​
15​	Mercedes-EQ EQS​	14​
16​	Mercedes-EQ EQA​	13​
16​	Mercedes-EQ EQB​	13​
16​	Mercedes-EQ EQE SUV​	13​
17​	Hyundai Ioniq 6​	12​
18​	Nissan Leaf​	11​
19​	Mercedes-EQ EQS SUV​	10​
20​	Audi Q8 e-tron​	8​
20​	Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo​	8​
21​	Lexus RZ 450e​	7​
22​	Audi e-tron GT​	6​
22​	Mini Cooper SE​	6​
23​	Subaru Solterra​	4​
24​	Jaguar I-Pace​	3​
25​	BMW i7​	2​
25​	Fiat 500e​	2​
26​	Citroën Ë-C4​	1​
26​	Honda e​	1​
26​	Opel Mokka-e​	1​
26​	Rolls-Royce Spectre​	1​
26​	Volkswagen ID.4​	1​
Total​	​	2,606​

Total Model S/X deliveries did come in stronger than expected. Maybe we have Taiwan, China and other Asian countries to thank for that.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Well, that's a boatload of gravy then, 'cuz I added up the current rated capacity of known existing GA lines across all factories and came up with 2.53M for 2024.

That's my baseline production no. Any extra gravy is like a 2nd Model Y AWD line at Austin, or a 2nd line at Berlin, or a faster CT prod. ramp, or Shanghai hat trix...

Cheers!

That's OK, I like gravy.

 

[Thekiwi]

I struggle with this sort of thing:

How many more of Tesla’s top staff is Elon going to poach to work at his own privately owned companies before the Tesla board stops this BS.

 

[ktrivedi70]

A bit tangential given all the talk today around automobile production, but I just back from a trip to Egypt. While there, I kept thinking about what a transition to solar/electric could mean for a place like that. The pollution in Cairo in particular is pretty terrible. And this is a region where it’s sunny >99% of the time. Imagine the possibilities.

PS- amazing place. The only safety concern was the lunatic drivers

 

[MP3Mike]

How many more of Tesla’s top staff is Elon going to poach to work at his own privately owned companies before the Tesla board stops this BS.

Who says that Noah was poached? Maybe they just wanted a change, and made the move of their own volition.

And even is they were poached, who said Elon was involved?