Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[uscbucsfan]

Having said that my guess is within 4 years there will be NCAS plugs on all of them.

Again, the CT today wouldn't be able to use those.

 

[Sunlight]

The market is so rigged it’s not even funny anymore. If they hadn’t beat expectations, the stock would be down 30%. They beat the number and the stock is still dropping. This is why Wall Street is a complete joke. I called it earlier in this thread that the deliveries would be over 480,000( 3 months ago) just tired of the rigged game that we are in. The media bias, and the general hate against Tesla is out of control

Rant over

Maybe the drop in share price is more driven by the predictions by 'those who should know' that 2024 will only see a YOY increase of around 20%? The share price is supported to an extent by perceived big growth? Also growth in revenue may be flat over 2024 - I don't know, I'm clutching at straws to keep faith and continue to HODL

Also the incredible Cybertruck hasn't restored all the magic that's been tarnished by delays (or misses) in CT, FSD, Starship, X turnaround, Semi, Roadster, and so on. Easy FUD clickbait....

 

[TesslaBull]

This is confusing to me… if I have <$300k in AGI, why am I spending $72k on a car? Amazing that this happens.

Aren't you aware that for most, "approved for financing" =" I can afford, buy immediately".

But also, as others have mentioned, a $72k car with $300k AGI, if not swamped in debt, isn't that big of a purchase.

I think I saw that the average income of X purchasers is ~$145k

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Again, the CT today wouldn't be able to use those.

So, you are saying that it’s not just the connecter that will stop them? That would be a huge deal killer for many.

 

[Unpilot]

Remember too that people like JB are not quite gone anyway:

https://www.autonews.com/executives/tesla-co-founder-former-tech-chief-straubel-returns-board#:~:text=Tesla%20Inc.,its%20proxy%20statement%20filed%20Thursday.

Such events are not rare, but that one surprised many people, even seemed to astonish Automotive News.
As several people have already noted, the inter company pollination that happens with everything Elon is an amazing and vanishingly rare advantage.

Those of us who criticize Elon's mercurial behavior tend to not recognize the mirror side of that is an equally misunderstood technological talent that attracts highly talented people. The list of those began long ago with zip2 "..acquired by Compaq for $307 million in 1999" Wiki. Every Musk company has accomplished innovation that others had not seen.

That does not imply that everything is perfect. It does imply that there not much more surprise coming. For just Tesla we have Optimus, smaller vehicles, lithium refining, Cybertruck, FSD, new battery technology including continuous refining of 4680, new factories, Semi and much more we cannot yet see.

Our core problem is much like those of conventional securities analysts; we, like nearly all humans, see evolution but rarely revolution. Tesla has almost singele-handedly driven automotive industry revolution in powertrain and control technology, manufacturing, design and distribution. Very few even imagine the total impact of those.

So, on the first week of 2024 I'll point out that nearly all the TMC forecasters are seeing only a static view of capacity and potential, so imagining that TSLA will have a mediocre 2024, and improvement in 2025. Perhaps. They're all assuming continuity. None are seeing discontinuity.

The preceding paragraph is, I think, true. Next:

Among those who do understand disconuity there is another equally serious problem. All the public figures who think they understand TSLA further make specific forecasts for products and features that do not exist. It is not possible to do that in any remotely plausible way. As a rustle there are 'pie in the sky' forecasts. In short they're forecasting 'hopium'. A share valuation practice such as that is Ludicrous as best, Plaid at worst. (Sorry for the bad terminology. note: that terminology refers to two developments that happened only because of applying SpaceX technology to TSLA products.

All the above keeps me HODL TSLA but without any very useful way to make any specific values beyond a few months. We simply do not know what comes next, we imagine it, it may be 'announced' but there is not logical way to forecast when 'hopium' becomes a real product.

Having followed Elon since Zip2, I understand he is the 'spark' that ignites the 'explosives'. He's now aging and still pursuing the same dreams and visions he's had. He's, since the beginning, not been 100% correct
But his success rate has been since zip2, unprecedented. Now is different than ever before. Now he has amazing deep talent based in every Musk company. Every one cross-pollinates, producing things like Octovalve, Autobidder, GigaPress, paint shops and structural battery packs that are invisible to the beneficiaries. Each of those require help from outsiders too, who clamor to be TSLA, SpaceX etc suppliers because that will assure their own technological prowess will improve.

There is a reason why CEO's of BYD, CATL, IDRA/LK etc strive mightily to be TSLA suppliers when many do not. In short, those, coincidently more Chinese than not, are determined to improve by learning from the best. Both Diess and Farley have recognized that and have tried to adopt a collaborative posture. One lost his job over that, the other hasn't succeeded. Tesla, though, has never stopped cooperating with anybody who will help advance the mission. That recently had numerous partnerships with property developers, public utilities and some governments. OMG, now that includes nearly all the major global auto manufacturers doing business in North America. That is NACS.

Now, when considering the last paragraph we reach an area where actual numerical results ahem already been evident. Tesla Energy. It's hard to understand why exactly zero TSLA specialist forecasters are including Tesla Energy. Everyone is preoccupied with car production and sales. Why? Because public data is readily available so examining the past is trivially easy, for almost every global car market. ~$3000 per year and all one needs to do is copy and past. You also get original sources so you quote from them and pretend to have done original work. Clever way to make money on clicks! FWIW, I pay for that data too, and can usually see where people get their data, but I'm not after clicks.

Not coincidently public utility data si widely available as is peaker plant data. Further the costs of alternatives is easy to find. Some fo that has been already on TMC in Tesla Energy related threads.

SO short conclusions, without quoting any data myself:
Renewable energy, wind and solar, are Globally the cheapest way to install new capacity;
Battery storage is the cheapest, fastest and easiest way to install peaker capacity;
Both renewables and battery storage are the majority of new capacity happening now in most major countries;
There is too far little supply of wind, solar and battery production capacity to meet the demand;
Tesla Energy need only have a <10% share of new peaker plants alone to dwarf automotive most optimistic goals in aggregate, for all manufacturers;
Tesla already has energy supplier licenses in EU, UK, Texas and numerous other locations around the world, while all the analysts ignore it. Even when consumers report a direct experience everyone notes and ignores.

Those are why Elon says as much, although he's unusually cryptic about it, partly because both institutional and retail shareholders are ignoring the business.

If I had the resources today that I did decades ago, when I did things like this for my living, I'd put a team on this subject above all others.
FWIW, that is why Tesla is building MegaPack capacity as quickly as they can, even though all the analysts, including ours, simply ignore the subject apart from a throwaway Lathrop comment from time to time. That is why all those contracts with developers, openly disclosed and ignored.
Even when one of our own buys a place in Babcock Ranch we all say, great! and then ignore the implications.

Sorry for my rant. I hope it helps spawn some interest from people who can do the work to help see the future more clearly.

This is why I read this forum EVERY day.
Thank You!!!

 

[uscbucsfan]

So, you are saying that it’s not just the connecter that will stop them? That would be a huge deal killer for many.

Non-Tesla NACS use CCS as the communication protocol (@MP3Mike pointed this out to me) Kyle from out of spec discusses it in that video. Currently, the CT will only work on the Tesla protocol. He hopes it's something that can be updated in the future and likely can be.

 

[MP3Mike]

The issue is that it won't work on the non-Tesla NACS chargers.

I'm not sure there are any Tesla NACS chargers yet. (Maybe MagicDock sites would work with a NACS vehicle without the MagicDock adapter?)

Though there should be a bunch of them that become NACS chargers in the next couple months as they open Superchargers to Ford & GM...

 

[uscbucsfan]

I'm not sure there are any Tesla NACS chargers yet. (Maybe MagicDock sites would work with a NACS vehicle without the MagicDock adapter?)

I'm not sure.

I don't see this as a big deal. Again, the slow charging curve and this are likely due to Tesla monitoring the 4680s.

 

[Knightshade]

My knowledge of battery production is very poor. Looking for thoughts on this.
A month ago, The Limiting Factor projected 4680 ramp going from 9.1 GWh/yr to 74.2 (assuming a 21% MoM improvement).
That's about 42GWh/yr in 2024 (averaged) which would be enough for 500k Model Ys.
Questions:
1. Is this possible?
2. Is this probable?
3. Am I missing something? wrong math, etc.
I have his video below the pic:

View attachment 1005380
Limiting Factor Video

Just looking at that screen shot he appears to be taking the 50% increase from Oct 23 to Dec 23 and then just... assuming it keeps going at an accelerated rate? Like it shows 20M-40M cells Oct to Dec...then jumped to 40M in January, 50M in February, and 100M by June of the same year, and 200M by September. Which seems.... very optimistic...(he also runs the math as if the lines are all running full tilt 365 days of the year which is simply unrealistic though I guess you can say he's citing POSSIBLE run rate rather than actual to get around that).

So clicking your video link, the very first screen states they're coverting all the lines purely to Cybertruck production and focus on ramping that for the next 3 quarters (which would be Q4 23 and 1H 24). Leaving *checks notes* 4680 cells for Model Y. Indeed his own video later shows even if his projection were right (and I've suggested why it's overly optimistic) they don't reach the required run rate for the # of CTs Tesla said it wants to make until August/Sept 2024...

If he's off even a bit, and you consider they don't run 365 days either, you're talking quite late in 2024 just to reach enough 4680s for the CTs they want to make before they can switch any of the lines back to Y (and this assumes they don't plan to use "extra" 4680s for anything else on the plate BUT the Y)

It (Drews remarks cited from the Q3 23 call) also mentions "a lot more work to do to achieve our steady state goals" which suggests simply taking a 21% MoM gain from a couple months of data and projecting that as the steady rate over the next year isn't the soundest methodology? I'd expect a lumpier ramp than that.

He later quotes that the phase 2 lines are hopefully coming online late 2024-- so potentially we've got a lot of 4680 supply for non-CT in 2025, but not for hundreds of k of Model Y this year.

So I think it's "possible" in the sense that if they magically run 365 days a year and have magically solved all remaining 4680 issues in Q4 2023, and don't run into any new ones at all, AND they keep scaling at exactly the same rate MoM evenly, you possibly reach his ideal-run-rate number end of 2024.

But it's not probable all that comes together, and even if it does it doesn't give you spare cells for Y production until 2024 is almost 3/4 over with (later if you go with actual run rate instead of theoretical- or if 4680s start going anywhere else like semi or maybe finally a roadster)

As to missing something, I find some of his assumptions kind of like the ones that had folks calling for insanely higher than we got EPS by now because they took the most optimistic short-term #s possible and just projected them out to infinity without any changes or any bumps in the road or any deeper look at what Tesla has really said about some things.


I mean I'd certainly love if Tesla got to a near 100gwh run rate at Austin for cells by end of 2024... but I think a more realistic hope is they scale fast enough to get CT as maximized on production as possible and position themselves for a monster 2025.

Other factor to keep in mind... what's going into the next-gen car? Everyone figured LFPs based on the battery day slide... but those don't qualify for the $7500 credit. And we know Tesla hopes to have at least trial next-gen cars being made...in Austin... by late 2024.

Maybe THAT is where the extra 4680s that'll be available late 2024 are gonna go? AFAIK Tesla hasn't announced any LFP cell production at all... and CATL delayed their own US plant... so what else are they going to put in there? Not 2170s because they'll quickly run out of supply given the volume they hope to do on next-gen and AFAIK they've not got plans to scale 2170 production in a big way either.

True, the serious volume battery mfg may not kick in until '25, but don't people invest on future value anymore? Megapack demand is already 2 yrs out and growth seems to be putting the car growth to shame on an annual % basis. ]

Absolutely-- when we began talking about what '24 financials would look like with slower car growth a week or two ago I specifically cited energy as the most likely bright spot for the year.

 

[The Accountant]

Remember too that people like JB are not quite gone anyway:

https://www.autonews.com/executives/tesla-co-founder-former-tech-chief-straubel-returns-board#:~:text=Tesla%20Inc.,its%20proxy%20statement%20filed%20Thursday.

Such events are not rare, but that one surprised many people, even seemed to astonish Automotive News.
As several people have already noted, the inter company pollination that happens with everything Elon is an amazing and vanishingly rare advantage.

[remaining content deleted by The Accountant for brevity]

Your post eventually makes the case for Tesla Energy but there were 5 nuggets in the commentary that stand out on their own.
I want to list them here for others as sometimes it is easy to miss these gems in a long post. One day I may publish a short book with your quotes

@unk45 CLIFF NOTES
1. Every Musk company has accomplished innovation that others had not seen.

2. Our core problem is much like those of conventional securities analysts; we, like nearly all humans, see evolution but rarely revolution.

3. So, on the first week of 2024 I'll point out that nearly all the TMC forecasters are seeing only a static view of capacity and potential, so imagining that TSLA will have a mediocre 2024, and improvement in 2025. Perhaps. They're all assuming continuity. None are seeing discontinuity.

4. Having followed Elon since Zip2, I understand he is the 'spark' that ignites the 'explosives'. He's now aging and still pursuing the same dreams and visions he's had. He's, since the beginning, not been 100% correct. But his success rate has been since zip2, unprecedented

5. All the above keeps me HODL TSLA but without any very useful way to make any specific values beyond a few months. We simply do not know what comes next, we imagine it, it may be 'announced' but there is not logical way to forecast when 'hopium' becomes a real product.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ouch.....

The Tesla Model S Has Gone From Game-Changer To Afterthought

Tesla is the Model 3 and Model Y company now. But don't forget about the Model S.

insideevs.com

Doubt there will be a replacement. Elon has stated it and the X may ride off into the sunset one day. Of this is Tesla and things change. The S and X had a great fourth quarter. Or was it clearing inventory for another "refresh"?

I put this idea out years ago that Model S (and X) would likely be relegated to collector’s items at some point. I thought sooner than *nowish*, but even Tesla takes longer to get to a certain point sometimes. I remember every disagree, and every fervent reason why it couldn’t, nay, wouldn’t happen. Flagship! Oh, how people hung their hats on that one. New tech would need to be introduced through only them, even in the face of all the new tech that went into the 3 first. Then into the Y first. And now into the CT first. Highest margins/profitability in said vehicles, somehow believing that would remain but even more importantly would be needed to keep Tesla afloat.

Ahahaha.

Who doesn’t love the smell of an ‘I told you so’ in the morning? I will remain patient, but the day is nigh.

 

[uscbucsfan]

You called that Tesla would move the S/X to the "other vehicles" section in sales reports years ago?

Pretty impressive.

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK: 22% of NEW cars (10% of vans) have to be Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEV) - https://fleetworld.co.uk/zev-mandate-with-electric-vehicle-sales-targets-becomes-law/

This will ramp up to 80% in 2030.

Fine is £15,000 per vehicle (source: another older article - ZEV Mandate: the manufacturers that face the biggest fines).

UK needs more Right-Hand Drive Teslas. Stinkbugs are fine, we don't have functioning bio security since events of recent years.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Aren't you aware that for most, "approved for financing" =" I can afford, buy immediately".

This describes my past behavior, boats and cars on loan using INTC stock options for the down payment. Was a long time ago, but serious short-term thinking similar to many companies, even now.

So for today... we're gonna pass on the Founder's Series CyberTruck. Will wait for a better price and range, and hope for the $7K FSD or other discounts as they come. I'd rather buy (hold on to) more TSLA stock instead. The sale is happening right now!

There was a comment here a few days after the delivery event regarding CT members not taking the offer (implying the demand in general will also fizzle). To the contrary as I believe I am among the wise here, with most still buying banana's on sale to save 50 cents. A few took it based on YOLO and 10x in the bank. Well deserved and congats!

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742580154289819697

 

[cliff harris]

Anyone in any doubt about the company future should take a look at spacex and the starship program.
They are currently on booster #30, even though they have only done 2 proper tests, and thus destroyed 2. Why bother making so many? why would anyone build ship and booster time and time again, when they havent even reliably reached orbit?

Its because elon thinks BIG and differently. He doesnt want to build and launch 4 starships, he wants hundreds, probably thousands, which means he needs to perfect the MASS production. And the thing is, he is focused on that already, probably a year before the design is finally proven.

The same is true with Tesla. Building a supercharger network so early was nuts, but he just assumed widespread national success and planned accordingly. The building of giga nevada was nuts, but it was super-forward looking.

I very strongly suspect there is stuff going on at Tesla that is as forward looking now as the starship program or supercharger build-out. Thats on top of the really obvious moonshots of dojo, optimus and FSD. This is why the only possible rational path as a Tesla investor is to buy and HOLD with a long time horizon. Remember Elon hates traders and loves investors. He will not give traders a heads-up before they suddenly announce some major event, such as FSD achieving human-level driving, the bot making a major breakthrough, or the much-discussed model 2.

I would not be able to sleep without a big Tesla stock position, because I'd be terrified of missing the next insane wave. I'm very much looking forward to Q4 earnings call AND the talk elon is giving to the whole company soon.

 

[The Accountant]

Just looking at that screen shot he appears to be taking the 50% increase from Oct 23 to Dec 23 and then just... assuming it keeps going at an accelerated rate? Like it shows 20M-40M cells Oct to Dec...then jumped to 40M in January, 50M in February, and 100M by June of the same year, and 200M by September. Which seems.... very optimistic...(he also runs the math as if the lines are all running full tilt 365 days of the year which is simply unrealistic though I guess you can say he's citing POSSIBLE run rate rather than actual to get around that).

So clicking your video link, the very first screen states they're coverting all the lines purely to Cybertruck production and focus on ramping that for the next 3 quarters (which would be Q4 23 and 1H 24). Leaving *checks notes* 4680 cells for Model Y. Indeed his own video later shows even if his projection were right (and I've suggested why it's overly optimistic) they don't reach the required run rate for the # of CTs Tesla said it wants to make until August/Sept 2024...

If he's off even a bit, and you consider they don't run 365 days either, you're talking quite late in 2024 just to reach enough 4680s for the CTs they want to make before they can switch any of the lines back to Y (and this assumes they don't plan to use "extra" 4680s for anything else on the plate BUT the Y)

It (Drews remarks cited from the Q3 23 call) also mentions "a lot more work to do to achieve our steady state goals" which suggests simply taking a 21% MoM gain from a couple months of data and projecting that as the steady rate over the next year isn't the soundest methodology? I'd expect a lumpier ramp than that.

He later quotes that the phase 2 lines are hopefully coming online late 2024-- so potentially we've got a lot of 4680 supply for non-CT in 2025, but not for hundreds of k of Model Y this year.

So I think it's "possible" in the sense that if they magically run 365 days a year and have magically solved all remaining 4680 issues in Q4 2023, and don't run into any new ones at all, AND they keep scaling at exactly the same rate MoM evenly, you possibly reach his ideal-run-rate number end of 2024.

But it's not probable all that comes together, and even if it does it doesn't give you spare cells for Y production until 2024 is almost 3/4 over with (later if you go with actual run rate instead of theoretical- or if 4680s start going anywhere else like semi or maybe finally a roadster)

As to missing something, I find some of his assumptions kind of like the ones that had folks calling for insanely higher than we got EPS by now because they took the most optimistic short-term #s possible and just projected them out to infinity without any changes or any bumps in the road or any deeper look at what Tesla has really said about some things.


I mean I'd certainly love if Tesla got to a near 100gwh run rate at Austin for cells by end of 2024... but I think a more realistic hope is they scale fast enough to get CT as maximized on production as possible and position themselves for a monster 2025.

Other factor to keep in mind... what's going into the next-gen car? Everyone figured LFPs based on the battery day slide... but those don't qualify for the $7500 credit. And we know Tesla hopes to have at least trial next-gen cars being made...in Austin... by late 2024.

Maybe THAT is where the extra 4680s that'll be available late 2024 are gonna go? AFAIK Tesla hasn't announced any LFP cell production at all... and CATL delayed their own US plant... so what else are they going to put in there? Not 2170s because they'll quickly run out of supply given the volume they hope to do on next-gen and AFAIK they've not got plans to scale 2170 production in a big way either.









Absolutely-- when we began talking about what '24 financials would look like with slower car growth a week or two ago I specifically cited energy as the most likely bright spot for the year.

Thanks - It will be interesting to see what they say about 4680 progress on the Q4 earnings call.

 

[ShareLofty]

Ugh... $236 The Beta Is Back!!!

The market is so rigged it’s not even funny anymore. If they hadn’t beat expectations, the stock would be down 30%. They beat the number and the stock is still dropping. This is why Wall Street is a complete joke. I called it earlier in this thread that the deliveries would be over 480,000( 3 months ago) just tired of the rigged game that we are in. The media bias, and the general hate against Tesla is out of control

Rant over

The stock price is at the mercy of the gigantic options expiration in two weeks. The stock price isn’t rigged. Take a deep breath

 

[2daMoon]

Maybe the drop in share price is more driven by the predictions by 'those who should know' that 2024 will only see a YOY increase of around 20%? The share price is supported to an extent by perceived big growth? Also growth in revenue may be flat over 2024 - I don't know, I'm clutching at straws to keep faith and continue to HODL

Also the incredible Cybertruck hasn't restored all the magic that's been tarnished by delays (or misses) in CT, FSD, Starship, X turnaround, Semi, Roadster, and so on. Easy FUD clickbait....

It isn't so complicated as that. The folks that manage the market have the least loss if the Friday close is at a particular price. (and they have magic powers allowing them to short any amount of imaginary shares)

This week, year-old options are coming due and that SP is in the mid 230s 210s.

See the Papafox Thread for daily updates.

But DO continue to HODL and keep the cheap sunglasses handy, the future is bright.

Edit: corrected the Max Pain for Friday and added snippy remark about MM's shorting abilities

 

[Tony73]

I put this idea out years ago that Model S (and X) would likely be relegated to collector’s items at some point. I thought sooner than *nowish*, but even Tesla takes longer to get to a certain point sometimes. I remember every disagree, and every fervent reason why it couldn’t, nay, wouldn’t happen. Flagship! Oh, how people hung their hats on that one. New tech would need to be introduced through only them, even in the face of all the new tech that went into the 3 first. Then into the Y first. And now into the CT first. Highest margins/profitability in said vehicles, somehow believing that would remain but even more importantly would be needed to keep Tesla afloat.

Ahahaha.

Who doesn’t love the smell of an ‘I told you so’ in the morning? I will remain patient, but the day is nigh.

View attachment 1005406

S/X just had their best quarter in 5 years. They are not going anywhere. They have not always had the latest/ greatest tech. They are still using 18650s for crying out loud but they are flagship vehicles and are incredibly important for defining Tesla as a luxury brand. Their future is bright.

There is ZERO evidence to suggest they will ever be discontinued.