Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

the best ... politicians money can buy.

Taken out of context, I know, but too funny/sad/ironic to let pass...

 

[hobbes]

Ouch, down 30% in pre market trading for mobileye (MBLY). Based on weak ‘24 guidance due to inventory glut.

Anybody know who they sell to? Is it just Waymo now that Cruise is sinking?

Mobileye Stock Crashes On Weak Year-Ahead Outlook

Mobileye warned that 2024 sales will be below estimates because of excess inventory at its customers. MBLY stock crashed on the news.

www.investors.com

The EyeQ system-on-chip (SoC) utilizes a single camera sensor to provide passive/active ADAS and features including automatic emergency braking (AEB), adaptive cruise control (ACC), lane keeping assist(LKA), traffic jam assist (TJA) and forward collision warning (FCW).[55] Mobileye's fifth-generation EyeQ is able to support fully-autonomous (Level 5) vehicles. More than 27 automobile manufacturers utilize EyeQ for their assisted-driving technologies.[56]

Mobileye - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think EyeQ is their bread-and-butter product.

 

[EQC_]

Found this table, showing a lot of not-competition in China, as most are in a quite different price/quality segment.
However, from this table one can see that there are many cheap Chinese EV models sold in the Chinese market, where Tesla is premium.
On another note: likely @Krugerrand is nodding approvingly at two model names.

View attachment 1005818​

Unrelated note...but I'd love it if we could get something like that Hongguang Mini in the US. Of course import costs and tarriffs would ruin the price...but I think a lot of households could make great use of a ~$5000 mini car for low-speed runabouts in neighborhoods and relaxed suburbs.

In the US, we have options like the overpriced GEM EV's -- the cheapest one of those, the GEM e2, starts at over $15,000 for 2-seats, a small cargo shelf, a max speed of 25mph and ~30 miles of range from a battery only rated for 600 cycles (20,000 miles!) on a 2-year warranty. Add doors or a decent battery and the price just goes up from there. Swapping to a Lithium Ion battery of 14.4 kWh for 100-miles of 25mph range adds almost $12,000, and you still don't have doors on this $27,000 low-speed EV. Price is even higher for the longer wheelbase versions with more doors and seats... other than the fact that you can justifiably drive these in areas that actual cars aren't allowed, I don't know how those prices are considered realistic compared to actual EV's you can buy today.

The Chevy Bolt is an option at a similar price point, but GM never really made enough of those to put pressure on these other markets.

The next gen Tesla model at a similar price, but produced in the millions and with actual car capabilities and safety, can't come soon enough in this silly environment...and hopefully it will also drive down the price of low-speed EVs as well as used EVs for people looking for an "extra car".

 

[MC3OZ]

What have you seen that indicates "Elon's frustration with Model S/X"?

Elon made a statement once along the lines that continuing with Model S/X was marginal.it was sometime ago and I don't remember the exact wording.

People have assumed that it means Model S/X might be discontinued, I don't think that is happening.

I think Elon's statement was before Model S Plaid was revealed, so there is some continuing investment in Model S/X.

Model S/X are older Gen1 lines and some investment is required to catch up to Gen2/Gen3.

My point which didn't make very well I that I can understand why wanting to improve Model S/X conflicts with not wanting to spend too much money upgrading Model S/X, because the contribution to revenue and profits is no longer that significant.

 

[Christine69420]

Drone pilot Meet God in Wilderness found some Model 3 Highland'ers in Fremont today: (should start at that timestamp)

 

[hobbes]

Didn't the government abruptly cut a €4,500 subsidy in December - making all EVs more expensive?

Yeah . Even though Tesla took over so their cars did not get more expensive, it lead to a lot of confusion. Also, in fall the subsidy for company cars ended as planned, so a lot of that demand was pulled ahead.

But even though Tesla sales in Europe declined a bit every quarter of 2023, Tesla did sell over 50% more cars here than in 2022! Don´t get confused by short term data, for long term trends which is what is important I like to look at trailing twelve month numbers.

 

[scaesare]

Elon made a statement once along the lines that continuing with Model S/X was marginal.it was sometime ago and I don't remember the exact wording.

People have assumed that it means Model S/X might be discontinued, I don't think that is happening.

I think Elon's statement was before Model S Plaid was revealed, so there is some continuing investment in Model S/X.

Model S/X are older Gen1 lines and some investment is required to catch up to Gen2/Gen3.

My point which didn't make very well I that I can understand why wanting to improve Model S/X conflicts with not wanting to spend too much money upgrading Model S/X, because the contribution to revenue and profits is no longer that significant.

I indeed remember Elon stating that the S/X were no longer critical to Tesla's success and didn't do the volume that warranted the resources required to do a complete overhaul, yet they were cars at the high end that filled a niche, thus the gradual improvement approach...

But I don't recall him saying anything about or even getting the impression of, "frustration".

 

[EQC_]

Am I the only one that thinks Tesla shot itself in the foot by underestimating how long it would take to get 4680s to ramp? They clearly stopped ramping 2170s since they thought 4680s was the future...

If I remember correctly, 2170 production is controlled by Panasonic. They are a great partner for Tesla, but they also seem to be very slow and cautious to ramp and add capacity. But, Tesla has VERY CLEARLY said that they will buy any (qualified) batteries from other vendors IN ADDITION to using their in-house 4680's.

So, I wouldn't say that Tesla "stopped ramping" 2170's...but that Panasonic and other partners (I think Tesla gets some 2170's from LG and/or Samsung) haven't reamped fast enough to fill the gap. I believe Tesla has resorted to shipping LFP batteries from China in order to make the SR and LR Model 3's (which therefore don't qualify for the IRA credit). Tesla is indeed using all the 2170's they can get, and buying completely different cells to fill the void...there are plenty of signals that Tesla could and would absorb extra 2170 production from their partners...

 

[MC3OZ]

I indeed remember Elon stating that the S/X were no longer critical to Tesla's success and didn't do the volume hat warranted the resources required to do a complete overhaul, yet they were cars at the high end that filled a niche, thus the gradual improvement approach...

But I don't recall him saying anything about or even getting the impression of, "frustration".

Let's just call badly worded statement on my part.

I'm assuming that Elon knows Model S/X could be better if they could justify spending more on them.

My post was more in response to those that think Model S/X will be discontinued, we are in broad agreement on the gradual improvement approach.

IMO 48V and steer-by-wire are important improvements that can't come fast enough as they will enable RHD Model S/X sales.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742755115625328828

so the masses get it before earnings .. and we create some buzz ...

 

[Drumheller]

I think it has a significant systemic impact.
The narrative has shifted.
He is no longer widely perceived as heroic iron man.

That translates into systemic clickbait like “All Teslas recalled for safety problem with driver assistance.” When it’s just an over the air software update to make users be more atattentive

I've been following Elon and Tesla since 2014, closely since early 2016. The media has never been fair or honest with him or Tesla. This is not a recent thing.

 

[hobbes]

Hey kids, are you ready for some healthy speculation? If so, please grab your tinfoil hat and buckle up

I have two conflicting theories on Cybertruck battery pack and 4680 development that the last bit of info from Joe helped makes sense

I took a break from X/Reddit over the holidays so there might be more relevant info that I missed

1 - Cybertruck will achieve 500 miles of range WITHOUT the range extender or number of cells increase:

When Drew was taking (on Munro video I think) about cells, pack size, range extender he said “Our goal is to achieve 500 miles of range”

Now to the why I think it might not have include the range extender. Currently the Dual Motor Cybertruck is said to have a 123 kWh pack and rated at 340 miles with H/T tires (320 with A/T ones), if we take the leak/rumor from Joe as true and to the most optimistic improvement of 20%, this becomes 408 miles and 147.6 kWh

Now, as far as we know, 4680s still don’t use Tesla Silicon, Drew also confirmed (somewhere) that there was no chemistry changes between 4680 gen 1 and gen 2

A heavy loading of Silicon, which Tesla hopes to achieve by using a Polymer binding to avoid the possible reduction of cycle life, can easily increase energy density by another 20%, bringing it to 177 kWh and 490 miles of range

Now, another data point to cross check the above, at Battery Day, the energy density of a 2170 Model 3/Y cell was around 270 Wh/kg. 4680s Gen 1 were at 244 Wh/kg and Gen 2 at 267 Wh/kg

With the new cells changes plus addition of Tesla Silicon, this might become 385 Wh/kg

From Battery Day slides, the range increase ignoring vehicle integration was predicted as 40%, meaning that the energy density would go from 270 Wh/kg to 378 Wh/kg, pretty close

So my overall theory is that the Range Extender won’t exist, it’s just a place holder to make people happy without disclosing that a more energy dense battery is coming and those who order/ordered the extender will get the battery pack replaced by one with Gen 3 or Gen 4 4680s (maybe 5?). 2024 seems too soon for that, but who knows

Now to the second theory

2 - Currently shipped Cybertrucks have the Gen 1 4680s

This would explain the poor charging curve, would mean that Texas indeed had line 1 producing Gen 1 cells or that they stockpiled a lot from Kato, which would make sense since it doesn’t seem to me many 4680 Model Y in the wild

Now the question becomes, is the pack really 123 kWh but more cells than we predicted? The pack configuration that other and I calculated fitted perfectly with 123 kWh, so that is going to be different

If the pack has the number of cells that we predicted with Gen 2 cells, it means it has less than 123 kWh, it would be closer to 112 kWh. If it has 123 kWh, this means that with Gen 2 the energy would have a nice boost

This would be weird and a blow to early adopters, who are paying a lot more for a significantly worse product, so I rate it as unlikely, but worth discussing

Cheers

That would be cool... but this all hinges on whether the pack is repacable, does anyone know? The days of Tesla packs designed for swapping are long gone and with the seats and stuff mounted on the pack nowadays it seems quite a lot of work to replace the pack IMHO...

 

[FreqFlyer]

Let's just call badly worded statement on my part.

I'm assuming that Elon knows Model S/X could be better if they could justify spending more on them.

My post was more in response to those that think Model S/X will be discontinued, we are in broad agreement on the gradual improvement approach.

IMO 48V and steer-by-wire are important improvements that can't come fast enough as they will enable RHD Model S/X sales.

Don't expect 48V on the S/X. Per Lars in one of the CT videos stated you can't retrofit 48V onto an older car. Literally have redesign all sub systems, Might as well go new platform.

 

[ChiefRollo]

I'd like to see them take the Berkshire/Buffett approach. No guidance and no quarterly calls. Instead, give investors what they need at the Annual Meeting to evaluate the company's long term value. It does us no good to play the Wall Street numbers game. Short-Termism is the enemy of good management and good investing. (It worked pretty well for BRK at 500K/share.)

Speaking of taking the BRK approach…and by a long extension impacts of options trading and market makers on TSLA, has anyone here tried trading BRK options? It would be good I think for Tesla to stop splitting shares.

 

[Krugerrand]

Found this table, showing a lot of not-competition in China, as most are in a quite different price/quality segment.
However, from this table one can see that there are many cheap Chinese EV models sold in the Chinese market, where Tesla is premium.
On another note: likely @Krugerrand is nodding approvingly at two model names.

View attachment 1005818​

The Chinese and Japanese and Egyptians and The Aliens and witches all have great respect for The species. Not sure what everyone else’s problem is. ‍

 

[Maarten]

Unrelated note...but I'd love it if we could get something like that Hongguang Mini in the US.

Price is very attractive, the looks are always debatable (but I have a “pretty strong opinion” about its appearance).
As a town/village car it could be useful, I see a lot of them riding around in Bali.
However, where this car in its current design goes absolutely wrong is with respect to safety.
It’s a car for organ donors.

 

[MarkLy]

Elon made a statement once along the lines that continuing with Model S/X was marginal.it was sometime ago and I don't remember the exact wording.

People have assumed that it means Model S/X might be discontinued, I don't think that is happening.

I think Elon's statement was before Model S Plaid was revealed, so there is some continuing investment in Model S/X.

Model S/X are older Gen1 lines and some investment is required to catch up to Gen2/Gen3.

My point which didn't make very well I that I can understand why wanting to improve Model S/X conflicts with not wanting to spend too much money upgrading Model S/X, because the contribution to revenue and profits is no longer that significant.

The S/X had a major upgrade in 2021 followed by another upgrade in 2022, the 1865 battery has the highest energy density of any battery used by Tesla and these models are widely regarded as having highest profit margin. Given you haven't seen or driven a Plaid in Australia, perhaps you could ease up on this "older Gen 1", "needing to catch up" rhetoric?

 

[Electroman]

With the new cells changes plus addition of Tesla Silicon, this might become 385 Wh/kg

Allright... I take only cash for the bridge in NY that I am planning to sell

 

[MP3Mike]

That would be cool... but this all hinges on whether the pack is repacable, does anyone know? The days of Tesla packs designed for swapping are long gone and with the seats and stuff mounted on the pack nowadays it seems quite a lot of work to replace the pack IMHO...

View attachment 1005900

Of course they are replaceable. (Do you really think that if a pack failed for any reason that Tesla would have to replace the entire Cybertruck? )

For the Model Y it takes about 37 minutes, ~13%, longer to replace the structural 4680 pack than it takes to replace the non-structural 2170 pack.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

If I remember correctly, 2170 production is controlled by Panasonic. They are a great partner for Tesla, but they also seem to be very slow and cautious to ramp and add capacity. But, Tesla has VERY CLEARLY said that they will buy any (qualified) batteries from other vendors IN ADDITION to using their in-house 4680's.

So, I wouldn't say that Tesla "stopped ramping" 2170's...but that Panasonic and other partners (I think Tesla gets some 2170's from LG and/or Samsung) haven't reamped fast enough to fill the gap. I believe Tesla has resorted to shipping LFP batteries from China in order to make the SR and LR Model 3's (which therefore don't qualify for the IRA credit). Tesla is indeed using all the 2170's they can get, and buying completely different cells to fill the void...there are plenty of signals that Tesla could and would absorb extra 2170 production from their partners...

Well, Giga Nevada was originally designed to make a lot more batteries than they are. If Panasonic didn't want to do that despite Elon saying they would buy everything there is clearly a problem. Either with the promised price, or the longevity on the promise to buy everything wasn't for long enough to make it a, for Panasonic, safe investment, or Panasonic had no money to make the investment. Seems like reasons Tesla could have solved if they wanted to.

What if Tesla hadn't come up with 4680s? Would there then not be a higher 2170 prodution today than there is? Then production would really have been in trouble. Actually 4680s were promised to be better which might be one reason Panasonic hesitated. How much did Panasonic invest in Giga Nevada for the production they have? A billion? Two billion? Tesla has 20 billion in cash. They could have payed themselves to ramp 2170 production at Nevada if Panasonic didn't want to. Either Tesla runs the new ones or let Panasonic do it on Tesla lines parallell to their own.

There are already 10+ production lines in Nevada. The Freemont employees working on solving 4680s can't be needed to copy 2170 lines that are already there.

The likely reason they didn't is that they thought 4680s would come along fast enogh to make it unnessecary.