Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

That would be cool... but this all hinges on whether the pack is repacable, does anyone know? The days of Tesla packs designed for swapping are long gone and with the seats and stuff mounted on the pack nowadays it seems quite a lot of work to replace the pack IMHO...

View attachment 1005900

True, it’s more involved, but definitely possible, you have the additional work of transplanting seats and some interior trim

But hey, for $16k?

Today, for 123 kWh and assuming $100/kWh (which 4680 aren’t likely at yet due to not full utilization), minus $45/kWh for IRA credit, the cells in a pack costs Tesla $55/kWh, or $6765

Even if we assume that higher energy per cells doesn’t drop the cells cost it is still a huge deal for Tesla

We know their near term target is $70/kWh or $25/kWh with IRA, the estimations I did above for a 177 kWh brings the cells costs of that pack to just $4425

Obviously there would be the issue of how much the old 123 kWh pack is worth

Could Tesla say that it’s $16k for a pack upgrade and you don’t get to keep your old one or get credit by it? Or say that at $70/kWh your old pack is worth $8k so the upgrade is just $8k? We will see

Even if I’m totally wrong, which is highly likely, it’s a fact that there will be 4680s Gen 3, 4, 5, 6, 7…

So for now, we know Tesla is severely cells constrained, to the point it’s second most sold vehicle is losing a huge credit because they don’t have the right cells available to put into it, but the situation might change quite soon

Tesla used around 150 GWh of cells this past year to the whole business, but just that we know they have in the pipeline an additional 300 GWh of 4680 in various stages of planing/construction (8 lines in Texas / 4 in Nevada), there is also will be lines in Fremont other than Kato Rd, Mexico, Berlin, maybe even Shanghai?

The question is, where will Tesla put a 300% growth in GWh deployed in two to three years from now? I have no idea

All of this to say that I don’t think they will remove cells from Cybertruck to keep the pack energy constant, but will let its range get better and better

 

[MP3Mike]

Well, Giga Nevada was originally designed to make a lot more batteries than they are.

As of June of 2023 Panasonic was still in the process of expanding: Panasonic to add new battery production line at Tesla Gigafactory Nevada

They are just very slow...

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Having 4680's to use PLUS every third party supplier battery they can buy is much greater than just using every third party supplier battery they can buy.

I for one do not think pursuing internally made 4680's was a mistake. Yes I do think it's unfortunate they are behind schedule and the ramp is going slowly, but Tesla will figure it out in time (if they haven't already), and once they do having the ability to produce Tesla 4680's at will becomes a MASSIVE positive catalyst.

Absolutely, I didn't say making 4680s was a mistake. I think it's great they are investing in making better batteries.

The mistake was stopping the expansion of 2170s until 4680s were in full production with yields and costs solved.

If Panasonic and/or others didn't want to there were probably reasons for that. So Tesla should have done so themselves in parallel.

 

[MP3Mike]

The mistake was stopping the expansion of 2170s until 4680s were in full production with yields and costs solved.

But Panasonic hasn't stopped the expansion... They were still expanding in the middle of last year. (Panasonic just moves very slowly.)

If Panasonic and/or others didn't want to there were probably reasons for that. So Tesla should have done so themselves in parallel.

Tesla doesn't have the IP, or experience, to make 2170s themselves. So, you wanted them to setup a parallel R&D process to manufacture 2170s?

I'm sure splitting your battery cell engineers across two projects would speed up both projects, right?

 

[EQC_]

But, max range was reduced for valid reasons. Tesla should not build a mass-production vehicle targeting the largest US vehicle segment with range that is statistically required by less than 5% of the buyers.

To the second point, consider the range gains other Tesla models have seen over time after initial release. I think that there is no reason Tesla cannot eventually make the CT with a 500 mile variant that doesn't impede upon bed space.

CT has only just now begun deliveries. Give it six months or a year. Consider how most people waiting for their reservation to come up (who don't take the Founders offer) will have a much better chance of seeing quite a bit more range and other improvements over the release version.

That is fair. Engineering a 500 mile truck would be a lot of expense for a rare use case.

The bigger issue I think isn't the lack of a 500 mile version, but that Tesla's new pricing is so much higher AND it costs so much more for the options to get extra performance and/or range for those who want it, and even with the Range Extender, the original "500+" miles spec is just not there.

To start with, the price has basically shot up $30K from what was announced:

• Original announcement: Dual Motor, 300+ miles of range for ~$50,000.
• Today, once the Foundation Series is passed: Dual Motor, 340 miles of range for ~$80,000.
  • Probably eligible for the $7500 tax credit or Point of Sale rebate

The $30K price increase is steep. It is mitigated a bit by the $7500 tax credit, and perhaps you can argue that there are new features (4-wheel steering, etc.) plus inflation to account for it. I'll assume that's "fine" and leave it alone...

HOWEVER, things get A LOT uglier for anybody who was eyeballing the 500+ mile Tri-Motor:

• Original announcement: Tri-Motor, 500+ miles of range for ~$70,000
  • That was $20K more than the original Dual Motor
  • For that price, you got an extra motor and performance capabilities and 200 miles extra range
  • There was no sacrifice to cargo volume or weight, and in fact towing capacity went up.

Trying to match that today has a few options, but none of them look good versus the original reveal prices and specs, and the added costs are notably worse than expected based on the reveal, even when starting at the $80K dual motor of today. Once the Foundation Series is done, the three options for trying to match the original Tri-Motor specs are:

• (1) Buy the TriMotor/Cyberbeast for ~$100K
  • The price is $20K higher than today's Dual Motor
    • accounting for the tax credit, your cost is actually $27500 more.
  • You'll get the three motor performance...but you actually lose 20 miles of range -- 320 miles.
  • Price differential from Dual to Tri-Motor is still $20K like at the reveal, but you're losing range instead of gaining 200 miles (!!)

• (2) Buy the Dual Motor, and add the Range Extender, total price ~$96,000.
  • Total price is "only" $16K more than the Dual Motor, but:
    • You don't get 200 extra miles like originally implied (300+ on the dual, 500+ on the Tri)
      • Range extender is said to add 130 miles to the Dual Motor
    • You don't get 500+ miles, you only get 470.
      • Big psychological difference, especially with that + sign.
    • You don't get tri-motor performance...and with the extra weight, you probably take a hit versus dual motor.
    • You lose cargo volume and weight, due to the range extender mounted in the bed.

• (3) Buy the TriMotor/CyberBeast, and add the Range Extender, total price ~$116,000
  • Total price is now $36,000 more than the current Dual Motor (and a whopping $46,000 more than the original Tri-Motor)
    • $43,500 more than today's Dual Motor, after accounting for the tax credit
    • You STILL don't get 500+ miles
      • Range Extender should add 120 miles on the Tri-Motor, for a ~440 mile total
      • CyberBeast+Range Extender is probably only 100 miles extra compared to the Dual Motor.
    • Your tri-motor performance is likely reduced due to extra weight
    • You lose cargo volume and weight capacity, due to the range extender mounted in the bed.

**The above is what I think triggers the most complaints about the "problem" with the Cybertruck pricing as currently announced -- big price increases overall, and big prices to add performance and/or range that still can't match the originally announced $20K bump to go from dual-motor to 500+ mile tri-motor.

***From an investment perspective, it makes sense to keep prices high, and option prices high, while production is low. As a long-time Tesla nerd and investor, I expect that Tesla's current prices and options aim to to maximize the economics while production is limited. As production ramps up, the supply and demand curves will shift and prices will be adjusted. Naturally, things will be different when Tesla is producing 100's of thousands of Cybertrucks per year...

****As a customer, I hope prices come down, and hopefully the range specs will also increase with time. Honestly, I think MANY of the people complaining now would be VERY HAPPY to see, for example, a 400-mile Dual-Motor Cybertruck for $65K (or less ) in a couple years. Add in an optional Range Extender that can add 150 miles for $20K (550 miles total!), and I think all but the most edgy of edge-case complaints would disappear.

 

[Orbit]

I've been following Elon and Tesla since 2014, closely since early 2016. The media has never been fair or honest with him or Tesla. This is not a recent thing.

Same with me on the time lines.

The narrative about him has shifted, many people who idealized him now vilify him. Every day people, outside of the media.
Surely you agree with that?

I think what is a recent thing is the high ratio of negative to positive news coverage.
I don’t have data on it, but I’m sure there are now less positive stories about him.

 

[2daMoon]

The highlight of this article for me is Elon's response in the embedded message.

Elon Musk responds to Tesla-BYD 2023 Q4 production comparison

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to the comparisons being drawn by various media outlets regarding his company and high-powered Chinese rival BYD.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Knightshade]

I believe Tesla has resorted to shipping LFP batteries from China in order to make the SR and LR Model 3's (which therefore don't qualify for the IRA credit). Tesla is indeed using all the 2170's they can get, and buying completely different cells to fill the void...there are plenty of signals that Tesla could and would absorb extra 2170 production from their partners...

To be clear- Tesla in the US imports Chinese LFPs for the SR(RWD) Model 3- they import Chinese 2170s (LGs I think?) for the LR AWD Model 3. Neither qualifies for IRA credits this year-- they'd need non-Chinese cells to do that and there don't appear to be any available from anyone for them to switch to.

 

[Christine69420]

I hope boring posts are OK after hours.

It looks like Tesla and The Boring Company will be making a tunnel (or several) at Giga Texas from the main factory to the new EOL distribution lot.

People are speculating that Tesla could let cars drive themselves from production to the EOL using these tunnels.

Anyway - here is a vid from BoringPrufRock about the boring way of making these tunnels:

And of course Joe Tegtmeyer have found lots of boring equipment at the site:

 

[2daMoon]

I think what is a recent thing is the high ratio of negative to positive news coverage.
I don’t have data on it, but I’m sure there are now less positive stories about him.

Ding ding ding ding ding, we have a winner folks!

Maybe you don't have the data, but this is not something recent. Elon has always ticked off anyone whose existence is at one extreme or the other. He gravitates toward the middle and this results in twisted knickers for some people.

The media will always amplify this sort of news, for a number of reasons, including, but not limited to:

• It came from Reuters, paid shills for those controlling the narrative for stock markets. They manufacture FUD for fun and profit.

• Pleasing advertisers. As Tesla does not advertise, and those they are disrupting spend billions advertising. So, they have some influence.

• Political leaning. Some media outlets have a defined bias toward a particular political group. Many (all?) of which feel threatened by Elon for any of a number of reasons. The biggest of which is his blatant adherence to being honest, straight-forward, and a decent human being trying to change things for the betterment of everyone.

 

[2daMoon]

I hope boring posts are OK after hours.

It looks like Tesla and The Boring Company will be making a tunnel (or several) at Giga Texas from the main factory to the new EOL distribution lot.

People are speculating that Tesla could let cars drive themselves from production to the EOL using these tunnels.

Anyway - here is a vid from BoringPrufRock about the boring way of making these tunnels:

And of course Joe Tegtmeyer have found lots of boring equipment at the site:

Wow, nobody saw that coming!

 

[Max Plaid]

To be clear, when I was talking about an anticlimactic year I was talking about Europe as a whole.
See the numbers:

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

Germany is more than anticlimactic: it's disappointing.
View attachment 1005777

Tesla sales are up roughly +50% yoy, I think that's pretty damn good...

It's my suspicion that Tesla are battery-contrained more than anything else, certainly not a price issue in EU

Edit: meh, ninja'd by @hobbes - but the Europe numbers wiki is his baby, so faor enough!

 

[cliff harris]

Well, Giga Nevada was originally designed to make a lot more batteries than they are. If Panasonic didn't want to do that despite Elon saying they would buy everything there is clearly a problem. Either with the promised price, or the longevity on the promise to buy everything wasn't for long enough to make it a, for Panasonic, safe investment, or Panasonic had no money to make the investment. Seems like reasons Tesla could have solved if they wanted to.

What if Tesla hadn't come up with 4680s? Would there then not be a higher 2170 prodution today than there is? Then production would really have been in trouble. Actually 4680s were promised to be better which might be one reason Panasonic hesitated. How much did Panasonic invest in Giga Nevada for the production they have? A billion? Two billion? Tesla has 20 billion in cash. They could have payed themselves to ramp 2170 production at Nevada if Panasonic didn't want to. Either Tesla runs the new ones or let Panasonic do it on Tesla lines parallell to their own.

There are already 10+ production lines in Nevada. The Freemont employees working on solving 4680s can't be needed to copy 2170 lines that are already there.

The likely reason they didn't is that they thought 4680s would come along fast enogh to make it unnessecary.

I thought it was generally known that giga nevada suffered from a labor shortage in the surrounding area?
This could be fixed by better automation, and eventually optimus.

 

[jerry33]

Taken out of context, I know, but too funny/sad/ironic to let pass...

The problem with democracy is that it attracts politicians.

 

[jerry33]

I thought it was generally known that giga nevada suffered from a labor shortage in the surrounding area?
This could be fixed by better automation, and eventually optimus.

That was originally true because there was a water shortage that didn't allow new housing to be constructed. I've heard that's since been resolved so the labour problem isn't what it was in the early days. Of course automation will still advance there.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Elon Musk, December 31st, 2023: “I stand by my prediction that, if Tesla executes extremely well over the next 5 years, that the long term value could exceed Apple and Aramco combined,”

I wonder if Elon had this in mind. Since the start of 2024 TSLA has lost $32.3B, however AAPL has lost $174.2B in market cap. The rate of decline for Apple is significantly more than for Tesla. And as for Armco, we all no their value will be worth didly squat in five years with only stranded assets so they don't even come into the equation.

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742755115625328828

Looking forward to a new level of FSD. This one's so _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla knew it had to release it and couldn’t wait even longer because of you wait for every improvement it never gets released

Joe Tegtmeyer said in his tweet yesterday that the change-over in cathode material used at Giga Texas was pending using up the existing supply of cathode material (this stuff ain't cheap, apparently...)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I just thought of another reason to delay ER to the 24th.

It's because its the year end, need more time for the 10-K vs a 10-Q. The Conf.Call was a week later last year too.

 

[MC3OZ]

People are speculating that Tesla could let cars drive themselves from production to the EOL using these tunnels.

I assume that they would need permits, to build tunnels under public roads.

It could be that the Boring Company equipment is simply being stockpiled for use elsewhere on site.

There are long standing plans for a tunnel on the easy side near the battery cathode plant, under the river ,linking up to an island on the other side.

They probably also need permits to go under the river, but these might be slightly easier to obtain.

it is fairly safe to assume that one or both of these projects is likely to proceed. if they have already moved the equipment, it is likely that the permits have been filed, perhaps even approved.