Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

Anyone think a DITM leap is worth the risk? Will 2 yrs out take us past the recession?

Can’t say I haven’t been poking around a bit. YMMV

 

[2daMoon]

I'm still trying to figure out if Optimus is learning, mimicking, or copying - each have different levels of complexity and purpose. Spare me, I have limited knowledge in AI but extensive experience in human learning + basic common sense. I've concluded that it's possible it's doing all 3 combined for reasons given below.



Agree, with a bit of a twist.

Think about "seeing vs doing" and the "hands-on experience" gained from doing a task, even if just mimicking or copying (as in pure R/C).

What if the data is faster to acquire by inputting directing from Optimus Sensor data while it is simply copying the teacher's motions R/C with a bodysuit? It's like a transfer function to get the task in Optimus data form, while combined with actual touch data. Hey, isn't this like shadow mode on FSD where the driver inputs the data directly into the controls? But how would you do that with Optimus?

You can't 100% drive Optimus... unless you use a body suit, gloves etc. Although, I could also argue that it doesn't take much data analysis to translate pure vision into bone kinematics for Optimus, but perhaps an extra step is removed to optimize the iterative process - a step closer to real-time learning.

I have a funny feeling more will be revealed here. No way Optimus is just copying, it's the data capture, analysis, and speed of learning we have yet to hear about - in less than 2 weeks. And it may have to do with the compensation package - Elon knows what's coming more clearly than most.

Anyone think a DITM leap is worth the risk? Will 2 yrs out take us past the recession?

That is what I meant, just listed basic modalities rather than detail about patterns, movement, and other such that is part of the total task.

Body suit feeds in the basics, then learning by watching other examples execute the task adds to that.

 

[Krugerrand]

…rather, he will make use of the line of credit such a holding allows.

Which he had also done.

 

[Artful Dodger]

the ICF (International Clothes-Folding) Championship held in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, every February.

Actually, the venue was moved to Biggar, SK when they couldn't find an arena large enough in S'toon.

 

[SOULPEDL]

And if I may imagine (with some wishing) further... the clock has started. Elon has shared a timestamp of when training started. We shall see the shirt folding autonomously within 2 weeks. From knowing the speed of learning, we shall also know and believe the speed of AI. Would be bullish to say the least.

Parts of this "folding" NN will be a building block needed for soft object handling. The shirt would be the extreme "soft" case with the end goal of working with cables and other things that drape or hang loosely. Knowledge transfer would have a new meaning, quite literally a Method file transfer.

These core tasks are needed for increasing the speed for more complex learning (and should be spiral in the build to reinforce the more basic tasks). We have nature to show us the way with how animals learn. Then we just crank up the speed.

Gonna be an amazing year watching it "unfold" so to speak.

 

[bpjod]

Anyone remember a time when the most heated debate around here was whether to spend our gains on a mountain or an island?
Yeah, sometimes I miss those days…

 

[Hock1]

Oh, lookie!

View attachment 1009409​

Has the market responded to the concerns of @Thekiwi and his handful of faithful followers?

Or, maybe it is just @SOULPEDL buying...

People understand that whatever the DCF value of what has been developed at and by Tesla belongs to the equity holders of TSLA. No way is Elon going to just walk away with another 13% of the Company, with the lesser shareholders getting nothing.

 

[Snerruc]

Anyone remember a time when the most heated debate around here was whether to spend our gains on a mountain or an island?
Yeah, sometimes I miss those days…

Me too. But cheer up! After all the gloom and doom and teeth gnashing, the stock is up.

 

[scaesare]

I am honestly surprised that people are expecting, or wanting, a traditional company & CEO after all this time...

For a "car comapny" Elon has thought differently about:

- What makes an electric car desirable (style performance)
- How to design, build, and market that electric car (pack design, motor/inverter/compute)
- What autonomous driving brings to the table (not needed for a car, but first mover $advantage$ to perfecting is huge)
- The value of massive vertical integration (controls costs, reduces risk, controls capability)
- Radical new approaches to manufacturing (gigacasting. steel bending, etc..)
- The value of agile process and continual improvement (not stuck in model yrs)
- The best way to part ways from traditional auto-driving companies and forge new ground (bye bye mobile eye and NVIDIA)
- The value fully instrumented computer-integrated vehicles brings to the table (massive data collection for improvement/training)
- The value of fully connected and remotely updatable vehicles (no need for dealers visits for fixes/recalls... regular new features)
- The value of integrated software platforms (you control it all, not beholden to OEMs that don't interoperate well)
- The vaule of software expertise (can update/fix in hours, seamless operations)
- The value of energy storage (commercial/utility scale, home, superchargers)
- The value of utility platforms (auto bidder, provide utility scale value)
- How to build next gen cells (form factor, volumetric efficiency, tabless for heat reduction)
- The value of next-gen cell manufaturing (dry electrode reduces footprint, energy usage)
- The value of solar generation (signifacnt player in growing industry, radical new residential approach)
- The value of in-house metallurgy expertise (allows megacasting)
- The value of rapidly building out a massive charging network (they own it, ease of use, best-in class, generates income)
- The value of allowing open/free access to intellectual property (NACS being a standard cements them as primary mover)
- The value of rapid development pace (a non-moat differantiator)
- The value of AGI (applicable to far beyond car: optimus, AI)
- Unique approaches to accomplishing AGI (training sets, neural networks)
-The value of a humanoid robot (potentially massive for commercial use, valuable even if used primarily internally)
- The need for custom actuator design expertise (robotic capability/integration not otherwise possible)
- The need/value for custom silicon/ASICs (compact, power efficient, major compute power)
- The value of massive compute for training (large traditional AI cluster, DOJO)
- The value of design your own custom compute hardware (DOJO compute customHW design)
- ... (and no doubt many more...)


Are all fully baked yet? No. But does anybody think you'd have gotten a fraction of these without Elon? This isn't a car company. Heck, it's not like any company. It's a shell for Elon's grandiose vision for making the world a better place. Along with his other companies. He's outright said that if you want the typical company (stock) performance, sell. Now. I agree.

I want him driving at all costs. I bought several years ago (wish I bought stock instead of the car in 2013, but I got in about 5 yrs later). I could not care less about whatever has folks all up in arms. Just execute... on the long haul scale.

Everything else, including many posts here, is just short term noise.

 

[Captkerosene]

It’s a threat, no equivocating

And to be clear on the implications: If Elon leaves ... Dojo, AI, FSD, Robotaxi and Bot leave with him. None of those initiatives succeed without Elon leading the push. All of the talent who've made millions working for Tesla leave too. The stock crashes 80%. Tesla is not like a Walmart, Apple or even Microsoft where their founders left a mature company that any fool could run. Pay the man whatever he wants ... he's worth even more.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I haven't looked at Options Open Interest for the Jan 19th expiry, what do you see?

It's the mess as always. See anything new?

 

[scaesare]

I will do the translation of this post from asperger language to neurotypical language.

Elon is worried about the future because he cares about humanity. If Tesla becomes the leader of robotics and AI, Tesla will be very powerful. AGI might be the demon that kills us all and should be done carefully. Robots might do a lot of the warfare and could end up killing humans. A lot of economic value will be capture by the company making/owning the robots.

If Elon helps Tesla becomes the leader in this important technology without Elon having some amount of control of this, he will feel uncomfortable because he doesn't want to help end humanity and do harm or cause some misaligned people to have a great influence. Unlike Larry Page, e/acc and lots of the AI-field who are happy to kill off humanity if that means that AGI is now expanding across the universe.

So what does that mean for you who only care about yourself?
1. Elon thinks Tesla might be worth a crazy amount
2. Elon wants you live a long and happy life
3. Many other people in the industry want you to die and are working hard to get there
4. If you want a good future for yourself, you should consider supporting Elon having a 25% voting share. If this is done by giving his stocks a higher voting weight or giving him more common stocks is another question.

I suspect he also is very wary after the tech at OpenAI got wrested away from his intention for it....

 

[Artful Dodger]

For a "car comapny" Elon has thought differently about: [list of 50 world first's redacted]

Egregious. /s

 

[wipster]

People understand that whatever the DCF value of what has been developed at and by Tesla belongs to the equity holders of TSLA. No way is Elon going to just walk away with another 13% of the Company, with the lesser shareholders getting nothing.

Bear in mind that Elon said he wanted 25% voting control, not # of shares. He followed up on one suggestion to go with a Class B share, saying he was amenable to such an idea but it was illegal in Delaware past the IPO stage.

In other words, there may be other ways to get him what he wants without granting additional common stock. I expect we shall soon see what the board is planning...

 

[Electroman]

Panasonic Holdings Corp.
plans to roll out the newest iteration of its electric vehicle battery cells with improved capacity as early as this calendar year, the chief technology officer for EV batteries said

I remember reading very similar headlines I guess a year or two ago. Is that the same news, recycled again as 'Breaking News', or this is the 2nd iteration of 'improved capacity', on top of the first iteration that already accomplished its objective ?

 

[GrandEnigma]

Could Tesla spin off business units than create a parent holding company that would have shares with super-voting rights? Could do Tesla Automotive, Tesla Robotics, Tesla Energy and roll them into new hypothetical X (not that one) holding company?

 

[lascavarian]

Pay the man whatever he wants ... he's worth even more.

I suspect he has already made his decision. It just has to unfold. He may be shopping for a shell organization to use for a full on AI effort in opposition to OpenAI et al.

He is shopping for the best home for the project of his lifetime. We will know soon enough I suspect. I just don’t think it is about boards or shares, it is about gathering resources, talent and focus for a new task. YMMV

 

[Xd85]

I am honestly surprised that people are expecting, or wanting, a traditional company & CEO after all this time...

For a "car comapny" Elon has thought differently about:

- What makes an electric car desirable (style performance)
- How to design, build, and market that electric car (pack design, motor/inverter/compute)
- What autonomous driving brings to the table (not needed for a car, but first mover $advantage$ to perfecting is huge)
- The value of massive vertical integration (controls costs, reduces risk, controls capability)
- Radical new approaches to manufacturing (gigacasting. steel bending, etc..)
- The value of agile process and continual improvement (not stuck in model yrs)
- The best way to part ways from traditional auto-driving companies and forge new ground (bye bye mobile eye and NVIDIA)
- The value fully instrumented computer-integrated vehicles brings to the table (massive data collection for improvement/training)
- The value of fully connected and remotely updatable vehicles (no need for dealers visits for fixes/recalls... regular new features)
- The value of integrated software platforms (you control it all, not beholden to OEMs that don't interoperate well)
- The vaule of software expertise (can update/fix in hours, seamless operations)
- The value of energy storage (commercial/utility scale, home, superchargers)
- The value of utility platforms (auto bidder, provide utility scale value)
- How to build next gen cells (form factor, volumetric efficiency, tabless for heat reduction)
- The value of next-gen cell manufaturing (dry electrode reduces footprint, energy usage)
- The value of solar generation (signifacnt player in growing industry, radical new residential approach)
- The value of in-house metallurgy expertise (allows megacasting)
- The value of rapidly building out a massive charging network (they own it, ease of use, best-in class, generates income)
- The value of allowing open/free access to intellectual property (NACS being a standard cements them as primary mover)
- The value of rapid development pace (a non-moat differantiator)
- The value of AGI (applicable to far beyond car: optimus, AI)
- Unique approaches to accomplishing AGI (training sets, neural networks)
-The value of a humanoid robot (potentially massive for commercial use, valuable even if used primarily internally)
- The need for custom actuator design expertise (robotic capability/integration not otherwise possible)
- The need/value for custom silicon/ASICs (compact, power efficient, major compute power)
- The value of massive compute for training (large traditional AI cluster, DOJO)
- The value of design your own custom compute hardware (DOJO compute customHW design)
- ... (and no doubt many more...)


Are all fully baked yet? No. But does anybody think you'd have gotten a fraction of these without Elon? This isn't a car company. Heck, it's not like any company. It's a shell for Elon's grandiose vision for making the world a better place. Along with his other companies. He's outright said that if you want the typical company (stock) performance, sell. Now. I agree.

I want him driving at all costs. I bought several years ago (wish I bought stock instead of the car in 2013, but I got in about 5 yrs later). I could not care less about whatever has folks all up in arms. Just execute... on the long haul scale.

Everything else, including many posts here, is just short term noise.

nominate for post of merit and required reading before access any thread

 

[MP3Mike]

He may be shopping for a shell organization to use for a full on AI effort in opposition to OpenAI et al

To replace the X.ai organization that he has already created for that purpose?

 

[Usain]

Bear in mind that Elon said he wanted 25% voting control, not # of shares. He followed up on one suggestion to go with a Class B share, saying he was amenable to such an idea but it was illegal in Delaware past the IPO stage.

In other words, there may be other ways to get him what he wants without granting additional common stock. I expect we shall soon see what the board is planning...

It seems there are conflicting reports about whether or not it would be possible to grant Elon 25% voting rights without granting common stock. I've seen some reports saying that it can be done. Others say it can't.