Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

My 2019 Model 3 (bought with FSD package) was upgraded to HW 3.0 at no cost in 2021, as were many others.

Our 2018 as well... for FREE (dollars that is).

 

[hobbes]

This is as I expected. And it's probably why Ford has drastically cut Lightning production. Their EVs need that NACS plug.

I also expect that for most customers, an adapter is not good enough. They will wait until NACS is built in.

Ford should be able to do well with the Lightning. The Mach E is another story. I don't see how anybody would choose the Mach E over the Tesla MY until the Mach E qualifies for the tax break. The difference in price is huge.

Tesla should do a superbowl ad, "The only cars that have NACS built in TODAY!" It might even surprise some

 

[Zero CO2]

The long term future of Tesla is very bright, but the short term future is murky. Falling margins, slow CT production ramp, slow 4680 production ramp, FSD is still in beta, Optimus is years away, Megapacks are scaling but still very early in the S curve ramp, Giga Mexico hasn't really started construction yet and no other new factories underway, no Gen 3 compact in sight yet, the FUD is in full swing and going largely unanswered, and Elon might sell more shares this year to fund X again while he's talking about wanting to own more controlling shares or he'll "potentially" take development away from Tesla.

Not hard to understand why the stock is slowly dying while the rest of the Magnificent 7 blast off to the stars. If we get underwhelming financials or poor guidance at the ER we'll probably be mimicking the Titanic by the end of the week.

On the plus side, buying opportunity!

i am tired of buying opportunities

 

[elasalle]

Here is a Ford Mach e Ad
It even says it has largest charging network in NA [maybe they are already counting tesla SuC as theirs ]

.. & Tesla ?
some ideas ...
Most American made
Best Charging n/w
Best Software
...

 

[KBF]

Here is a Ford Mach e Ad
It even says it has largest charging network in NA [maybe they are already counting tesla SuC as theirs ]

.. & Tesla ?
some ideas ...
Most American made
Best Charging n/w
Best Software
...

The person who chose the music should be fired... Makes me think of a frenetic circus show, it screams "we're hustling you right now, don't slow down to think while I pick your pocket"

And the only time they actually compared it with the Y was saying that the Model Y doesn't have Android Auto...

What’s new with Android for cars at CES

The latest navigation, apps and entertainment updates for Android Auto and cars with Google built\u002Din announced at CES 2024.

blog.google

And the 'big feature' Android Auto introduced was... Telling you how much battery Google estimates you'll have left when your arrive at your destination??? And adding the Chrome Browser to your car? Chrome used to be good, but Google totally ruined it years ago... (I use the Brave browser now - FAR better experience, but I digress).

Big whoop. Using Android apps on my car? I already have a phone for that, it would change absolutely nothing (except I guarantee we'd be advertised at even more...)

 

[tslagreen]

The long term future of Tesla is very bright, but the short term future is murky. Falling margins, slow CT production ramp, slow 4680 production ramp, FSD is still in beta, Optimus is years away, Megapacks are scaling but still very early in the S curve ramp, Giga Mexico hasn't really started construction yet and no other new factories underway, no Gen 3 compact in sight yet, the FUD is in full swing and going largely unanswered, and Elon might sell more shares this year to fund X again while he's talking about wanting to own more controlling shares or he'll "potentially" take development away from Tesla.

Not hard to understand why the stock is slowly dying while the rest of the Magnificent 7 blast off to the stars. If we get underwhelming financials or poor guidance at the ER we'll probably be mimicking the Titanic by the end of the week.

On the plus side, buying opportunity!

"Slowly dying" and "Titanic" seem a little dramatic. Are you playing the angles as an investor (as you are entitled to do) or playing the long game and holding strong? A lot of pessimism lately. I get it. The SP has disappointed of late, but in relative terms, Tesla is by far the strongest player in the EV space and in autos overall.

 

[EQC_]

Connecting back to the idea of another EV potentially dethroning the Model Y, and your note here that there are more and more EV's in the category, there's a couple pieces that even many Auto and other journalists/bloggers and analysts don't seem to understand, especially when they write about the competition coming for Tesla:

• The existance of a car model for sale does not mean it can rapidly ramp up production rates.
  • No matter what drives the demand (supercharger access or otherwise), a company producing a car at a rate of 30,000 or even 100,000 per year can't suddenly ramp up by a factor of 10. They're not just running their factory at 10% capacity waiting for demand to kick in...they likely designed that production line and every aspect of their supply chain for their current production volume or slightly higher, and those manufacturers won't just be able to ramp up production by a factor of 10 or more in a year. Probably not two years either.
• Additionally, the other manufacturers seem to be pretty set on having many slightly different models to sell, each addressing some niche of personal taste, rather than putting their manufacturing toward producing one model in high numbers.
  • Spoiler: Description of a couple examples on that...

    • Think about all the different SUV/CUV's that Ford, for example, sells. They aren't looking for big sales numbers of any of them...there's just too many models for that. Their business is based on producing ever more niche vehicles that marketing can push folks toward.
      • Ford's SUV/CUV lineup includes: Escape, Bronco Sport, Bronco, Edge, Explorer, Expedition and Expedition MAX, and also the Mach-E. And each of those models is divided among a bunch of different trim levels, with an assortment of style and other options added on. Sure, each one has a unique appeal...but you have to wonder if manufacturing would be simplified (and costs and prices reduced) and total sales minimally affected if they consolidated things down a bit.
        • Tangential note: I'm convinced the main purpose of advertising in traditional auto is to "help" viewers feel like part of one of these niches. So they "know" if they are more of an Escape person or a Bronco Sport person...or if their personality better fits an Edge or Explorer. While one of those might be slightly more off-road capable than the other (or whatever), for most people the choice is purely one of fashion/style, since the use case for most drivers is the same -- either option will get them to and from the grocery store and work and kids sports events just as successfully...they just look different sitting in the driveway.
    • Think about Toyota -- with the Corolla and Camry, they do actually have pretty darned high volume for individual models (with each of those split among many trim levels, of course). But last I heard, their long-term EV plans are to produce a few million a year spread out over something like 30 models. So, their EV goal is to produce each one at about the 100,000 level.Even Toyota, which does produce the Corolla and Camry in high numbers

    [*]

The Model Y alone is in the ballpark of 1,000,000 per year globally, and increasing -- we know that neither Austin nor Berlin are consistently producing at their full Model Y volume, and we also know the struggles Tesla goes through (battery supplies, etc.) as they ramp production. Everybody else would have similar, or even worse struggles...and they are starting from a smaller base.

I believe VW as a whole sold fewer than 400,000 EV's in 2023 split among several models...so ballpark 100,000 for each.

I can't find global EV-only numbers for Hyundai/Kia, but they also sell several EV models, and I believe their total EV sale are also in that "a few 100K per year" range...so their best seller is probably in the 100,000 ballpark too. Hyundai has also said that they plan to have 30+ EV models during the 2030's -- they aren't going for volume on individual models.

I believe the Mustang Mach-E sold fewer than 100,000 globally in 2023.

It looks like the Ford Lightning sold fewer than 30,000 in 2023.

There are many Chinese manufacturers that I don't know much about, but they also seem to be going for the "multiple model" approach. BYD has a couple models in the 200-300,000 range, but there's no reason to think production of those models would triple in a year or two.

There just isn't an EV model I'm seeing that could realistically approach the production volume in the next couple years to have a chance at outselling the Model Y.... if any vehicle is to outsell the Model Y in 2024, it would have to be a smaller increase to an already big volume seller, so the only remote possibility there is something like the Corolla or F-Series, but I don't think either Toyota or Ford would want to ramp up factories and cut prices to drive those sales numbers.

Related news:

InsideEV's article today about the upcoming Stellantis Large Platform for EV's. They describe it as a highly flexible EV platform, that can take different battery sizes, different vehicle widths and wheelbases, different ground clearances, different cradles to hold different motors, etc. It's supposed to be useful for large sedans up through SUV's.

Sounds great...except calling it one platform gets a little iffy when it will obiously need a bunch of different parts for all the different size and motor cradle cases.

But the punchline came at the end of the article: "By the end of 2024, Stellantis claims it will have 48 all-electric models on the market—mostly in Europe— although they are very closely related to each other."

It looks like Stellantis globally sells about 6 million total vehicles a year...with a fraction of that being EV. With 48 EV models, how many could they possibly plan to make of each?

"Sales records" for an individual model aside...I just can't fathom how the manufacturing or the advertising and sales can be efficient with 48 different but related models. If it's different enough to need different parts in the "platform" and obviously different external sheet metal and interior stuff, that's a whole mess calculations and testing to ensure all the different versions survive crash testing, a whole bunch of different parts to manufacture and quality check and inventory, and a whole array of advertising to sell each model.

On the advertising side, I'm remembering seeing a commercial for a GMC truck right before a commercial for it's stable-mate/twin Chevy Truck during one commercial break...GM paying for twice the commercials to basically sell the same truck with different trim and badging, as though they compete against each other.

Having more (but similar) models just makes things needlessly complicated, reduces economies of scale in many aspects, and drives up costs all around....

I am glad Tesla keeps their number of models and trims more simple than the others...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is Optimus Direct Labor or CapEx?
I vote for Direct Labor, Training included. In theory, this should improve vehicle margins.

Edit - Chat4 below thinks Optimus could be COGS.

"Robots as a Replacement for Direct Labor: If the robots are directly involved in the production process and essentially replace human labor, an argument could be made for including some portion of their cost in COGS. "​

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla should do a superbowl ad, "The only cars that have NACS built in TODAY! You can lease a Model 3 right now starting from $339/mth (shows QR code)" It might even surprise some

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[unk45]

I’m amazed you find that amazing. I’d have thought you had enough worldly experience to know theoretically qualified (and theoretically unqualified) people do that literally all the time. It’s how people navigate the world. Throw an opinion at a wall and see if it sticks.

I really should have put the /s at the end, shouldn’t I

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon might sell more shares this year to fund X

Mr Beast made $250,000 from a single video posted on X, (his first video) let's see if the mainstream media report that.

My point here is there is a lot of FUD about X, and the mainstream media see X as a major threat.

Elon has definitely improved the software, and is attempting to broaden the income base.

High user engagement, and interesting content providers mean that advertisers eventually need to jump on board..

For most of the last 6 months the advertisers on X have been very low grade, but I am noticing a slow lifting of standards.

My impression is Elon intends to reward interesting content providers more highly on X.

While I don't know how the X finances are going, I recommend ignoring everything you read or hear about X in the mainstream media.

 

[kbM3]

"What if we made our truck have poor efficiency and a huge range, this way we can use all that excess of batteries we have and Uncle Sam will bail us out anyway"

For comparison, Cybertruck should be rated as follows:

• Dual Motor A/T - 88 MPGe | 38.4 kWh/100 mi
• Dual Motor A/S - 93 MPGe | 36.1 kWh/100 mi
• Beast A/T - 82 MPGe | 41 kWh/100 mi
• Beast A/S - 88 MPGe | 38.4 kWh/100 mi

Might even a bit better in summer tires

View attachment 1011223

You can’t estimate EPA consumption by just dividing the distance driven by the energy drawn from the battery. You have to divide distance driven by energy drawn from the wall. I.e., the official EPA consumption number includes charging losses. I believe they’re usually about 10%.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Mr Beast made $250,000 from a single video posted on X, (his first video) let's see if the mainstream media report that.

Mr Beast said:

But it’s a bit of a facade. Advertisers saw the attention it was getting and bought ads on my video (I think) and thus my revenue per view is prob higher than what you’d experience

Many saw their pay cut in half or worse because X diverted ads to Mr. Beast. There's just not enough money on X compared to Youtube, but it was reported by MSM as a mixed bag.

 

[Electroman]

Mr Beast made $250,000 from a single video posted on X, (his first video) let's see if the mainstream media report that.

My point here is there is a lot of FUD about X, and the mainstream media see X as a major threat.

Elon has definitely improved the software, and is attempting to broaden the income base.

High user engagement, and interesting content providers mean that advertisers eventually need to jump on board..

For most of the last 6 months the advertisers on X have been very low grade, but I am noticing a slow lifting of standards.

My impression is Elon intends to reward interesting content providers more highly on X.

While I don't know how the X finances are going, I recommend ignoring everything you read or hear about X in the mainstream media.

 

[ggies07]

Bull signal. Cramer wants to remove Tesla from the Magnificent 7:

"Monday On CNBC’s “Squawk On The Street,” Cramer suggested that Tesla should be left out of the index given its recent underperformance.
“Well, I got to tell you, the ‘Super Six’ is so strong, it’s amazing,” Cramer said. “Catch that? ‘Super Six’ because Tesla is no longer.”"

I gotta say - humanity is a f***ing joke. The ONE company on this planet doing more to create a better way of living and people want to tear it down (FUD) or say it's a bad investment. BRO. Greedy little monkeys lost in the shuffle just tryin to get their banana....sigh....

 

[MC3OZ]

Mr Beast said:

But it’s a bit of a facade. Advertisers saw the attention it was getting and bought ads on my video (I think) and thus my revenue per view is prob higher than what you’d experience

Many saw their pay cut in half or worse because X diverted ads to Mr. Beast. There's just not enough money on X compared to Youtube, but it was reported by MSM as a mixed bag.

We will see if advertisers sustain their interest next time he posts a video...

Advertising revenue on Twitter was always probably a lot less than YouTube...

When Elon took over Twitter didn't even have the ability to post videos?

X just needs to be breakeven or slightly better, then Elon doesn't need to sell shares.

This episode with Mr Beast will inspire other content providers to kick the tires at X.

When the share price is down, negative narratives and FUD are taken a lot more seriously, that was my core point.

I also don't agree that the 4680 ramp is going badly, it is falling short of Elon's "2 weeks" timeframe, but it is doing far better than the Roadster.

 

[uscbucsfan]

We will see if advertisers sustain their interest next time he posts a video...

Advertising revenue on Twitter was always probably a lot less than YouTube...

When Elon took over Twitter didn't even have the ability to post videos?

X just needs to be breakeven or slightly better, then Elon doesn't need to sell shares.

This episode with Mr Beast will inspire other content providers to kick the tires at X.

When the share price is down, negative narratives and FUD are taken a lot more seriously, that was my core point.

I also don't agree that the 4680 ramp is going badly, it is falling short of Elon's "2 weeks" timeframe, but it is doing far better than the Roadster.

I would maybe agree if Mr. Beast didn't put the disclaimer on his video. Others who tweeted Mr. Beast said they've had 30 million views and were paid $100. It's a ways out from taking anything away from Youtube. Irrelevant to Tesla anyway.

 

[UncaNed]

Here is a Ford Mach e Ad
It even says it has largest charging network in NA [maybe they are already counting tesla SuC as theirs ]

.. & Tesla ?
some ideas ...
Most American made
Best Charging n/w
Best Software
...

"Blue Oval" charge network!!!???

 

[Tronguy]

I really should have put the /s at the end, shouldn’t I

That's the thing. Throw out a have-at-it-guess, and don't indicate to the readers that one is guessing, and one gets, "Are you an idiot, mon?"

Throw out a have-at-it-guess, and do indicate that one is guessing - then one gets an actual conversation where people weigh different ideas, look at alternate hypotheses, and generally act like there's one huge, multi-person brain attempting to work out the truth.

Or not, people being people, and there's sarcasm (as a useful tool in the right circumstances: Humor helps) of the non-helpful variety. But at least one has a chance to invoke the multi-person brain.

Never forget that "/s", or saying it in words. Or, if one around actual people, using the non-verbal clues (tone of voice, shrugs, hand waving, etc.).

 

[GhostSkater]

You can’t estimate EPA consumption by just dividing the distance driven by the energy drawn from the battery. You have to divide distance driven by energy drawn from the wall. I.e., the official EPA consumption number includes charging losses. I believe they’re usually about 10%.

Oh good point, completely forgot about that, so add around 10% for the energy usage and subtract 10% for the MPGe

Still above by a considerable margin