Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

Sorry, I don't believe that. If that were true, then there would be people/companies who could make an infinite amount of money

I used to live in Bedford NY right near Greenwich CT. This is absolutely a thing.

 

[Mengy]

Cramer on AAPL @ 3:40
I haven't watched this video in years - a different perspective each time. Classic

I have a friend who became an investor on Wall Street after college before retiring a multi-millionaire at the age of 32, and she has always told me this is the most accurate portrayal of Wall Street she's ever seen online.

Whenever I hear someone deny that Wall Street rigs the game, it always makes me laugh out loud.

 

[unk45]

Apple has 25% net margin. Shuffling costs between R&D and COGs does not change that.

Apple gets a cut of subscription apps; they charge Google $18B a year to be the default search engine on safari; they sell cloud storage subscriptions to hundreds of millions of users; they charge $300 for $20 of incremental memory on a device.

There is nothing artificial about Apple margins.

After ‘more than a decade’ as a holder of both AAPL and TSLA I have developed an attitude of “ Sarcasm That Drips From Your Pores” (courtesy @Krugerrand ) regarding FUD for both. For decades AAPL has been accused of too high margins, but they never stop. TSLA faces the same including bland assertions of collapsing margins even though 2023, a momentously competitive year, still has TSLA with the best margins among major vehicle producers. Of course with TSLA one can point at Ferrari (RACE) or Porsche as high margin examples.

One perrineal clever bit of FUD is to never ever consider Free Cash Flow or anything at all like the old metrics of ‘acid test’, ‘current ratio‘ or the old simplistic one ‘debt/equity’. None of that is ever done frequently because these all show TSLA is in a class of one among major industrials, the only such case among automakers.

I admit this post to have more than a bit of “Sarcasm That Drips From [My] Pores”. Why? Because so many of us have forgotten fundamental value analysis if we ever knew it!

Ben Graham has become obsolete technologically, but his notion of Value’ remains sound. If we can only overcome our obsession with quarterly and shorter surface metrics coupled with a propensity to trust You Tube as a fundamental source of truth, if only we could … we might learn how to perceive obvious facts and ignore those who are ‘paid per click’. Were we able to do that we might have a chance to actually learn what marketing is, rather that confusing the former with advertising or sales./s

Yes, sarcastic! It is profoundly irritating to see so many people so devoted to trivialities and surface topics, never bothering to learn the difference between reality and surface perception.

Here is a valid analogy of why looking only at the surface can be catastrophically wrong:

This African lake may literally explode—and millions are at risk

The bottom of Lake Kivu, one of the African Great Lakes, contains combustible carbon dioxide and methane that threatens countless communities.

www.nationalgeographic.com

@Tony73 points our regarding AAPL one does need to discern reality, not just at the surface.
Lake Kivu really is beautiful and placid on the surface.

 

[unk45]

I double checked the VW number before sharing that graphic - no idea on the others.

Help! Toyota did NOT sell BEV, they sold hybrids!

 

[UkNorthampton]

Maybe there's a better chart, but I was poking around to find out "Days Inventory" for the various EVs. I believe these are worst ones - six months inventory is common here. Yikes! No wonder the factory slow/shutdowns for EVs. Any more inventory and they'll be selling the 23's in 2025. It's almost as thought a 6-month supply is the cut-off signal for production.

Why Dealers Can't Sell These 10 Electric Cars!

Unveiling the shocking reasons why these electric cars are off the market. Don't miss out on this eye-opening video!

www.toolify.ai

Not used it, seen it on their videos (might be enough info just by watching some). Some ICE cars beyond 400 days (may be regional). They regularly cover wrong model year new cars (2024 now, still selling 2022s as new). Very high numbers of days of supply for many non-Tesla EVs (Ford)

https://www.youtube.com/@caredge

https://www.youtube.com/@CarEdgeElectric - I personally don't think they understand EVs/EV market

CarEdge Data - $10/month

These 2023 Models Have the Most Remaining Inventory, and Highest Negotiability - free

Spoiler: Images

(also included in first pic but didn't notice)

Toyota seem to be restricting supply to USA. Included some blurb

 

[The Accountant]

He has been so grossly wrong about Tesla from the start. He never understood it. He always wanted to model the company like every other company on the planet. He didn’t recognize who made Tesla different. Yet there were hundreds of us plebes right here on this forum without the fancy degree and industry reputation who KNEW he didn’t know what he was talking about.

An initial valuation as a luxury car company? Please. Did he forget to read The Master Plan? Was it too complicated for him to understand? Did he not bother to research who Elon Musk was a person? Who J.B. Straubel was a person? You’d have to think pretty highly of yourself to do that research and come away thinking the people at Tesla were going for luxury car company.

Then even as he learned from his mistakes and made valuation adjustments, he still got it wrong because he still didn’t understood. It’s beyond his ability to understand because his knowledge, experience, and learnings fit in a particular box, and Elon doesn’t do boxes.

And not to make any mention about the years of brutal shorting to drive the company bankrupt nor the continued sheer oversized amount of options for the ticker nor the macro environment and how those things drove the SP -

He’s been bewitched by the FUD and ongoing narrative manufactured by those in control of the ticket. Simply put, he can’t be taken anymore seriously than our usual analyst suspects and he’ll be proven wrong yet again.

Remember who was right and made all these blowhards look like fools? Andrea James.

Agree
Just my opinion based on my experience working on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models for over 30 years with Merger & Acquisition (M&A) departments at 3 large global companies. Academia and Wall Street Analysts often arrive at poor DCF valuations (usually too low but sometimes too high) because their inputs (assumptions) are flawed. Academia and Wall Street DCF modelers lack insights into confidential company plans and having never worked in a consumer products company are unable to properly assess 'go to market' strategies, revenue/cost synergies, etc . . . so they often input 'reasonable' numbers based on what they can see. . . .growth will be this, inflation will be that, pricing will be this, market share will be that, etc. These modelers usually face 3 challenges:
1. A lack of visibility into a companies commercial market strategic plans
2. A lack of visibility into the companies current R&D activity and future R&D plans
3. A lack of understanding of synergies: revenue synergies,, talent synergies and cost synergies planned.

When looking to acquire a company (usually a division of a larger company), the M&A department would start with a DCF valuation with only public available information. Once we were given access to the targeted company's Data Room where we had access to confidential financial, marketing, R&D and talent data, the DCF model would often change significantly.

Many on wall street are aware of their disadvantages and that is why you will often hear on earning calls questions such as:
How should I be modeling xyz?
How should I be thinking about abc?

Wall Street uses DCF to arrive at share price targets. For Tesla, this is not an easy task.

 

[Knightshade]

The real question is why there are still permanent members in the UNSC.

because each has an absolute veto that would prevent changing that, and broadly speaking people (and nations) do not give up power once that have it.

 

[Cult Member]

you don't need to. I sold 1000 shares at $213.

To pay your tax?

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

If TSLA had gone from ~$20 in late 2019 to ~ $200 4 years later in a relatively stable path (80% returns YoY, no peaks to $300, $400) while the company has followed the same trajectory, would people be complaining about share price?

I don' think so. I think people would be very happy with their returns, and excited for future long term potential appreciation.

Instead people are whining that the share price is too low, when really the financials don't agree. They are simply whining because the share price was artificially higher before.

It's probably healthier to erase Q3 2020 - Q3 2022 from your memory.

 

[The Accountant]

If TSLA had gone from ~$20 in late 2019 to ~ $200 4 years later in a relatively stable path (80% returns YoY, no peaks to $300, $400) while the company has followed the same trajectory, would people be complaining about share price?

I don' think so. I think people would be very happy with their returns, and excited for future long term potential appreciation.

Instead people are whining that the share price is too low, when really the financials don't agree. They are simply whining people the share price was artificially higher before.

It's probably healthier to erase Q3 2020 - Q3 2022 from your memory.

This
With the stock price at $248 at Dec 31, my cumulative return on my investments since 2016 had been 1,138% compared to the S&P at 170%.
You can see from the graph below that my returns followed the S&P until 2020. What happened? I invested in TSLA in 2019.
Many will compare to the all-time-high, but stocks don't go straight up on a linear trend . . .those who hold TSLA long term should expect the dips.
We'll see another ATH again likely followed by another dip . . . but that's the life of a buy and hold investor.

 

[Cobbler]

Elon is making fun of a bear
$TSLA related? Who knows.....

 

[Krugerrand]

After ‘more than a decade’ as a holder of both AAPL and TSLA I have developed an attitude of “ Sarcasm That Drips From Your Pores” (courtesy @Krugerrand ) regarding FUD for both. For decades AAPL has been accused of too high margins, but the never stop. TSLA faces the same including bland assertions of collapsing matins even though 2023, a momentously competitive year, still has TSLA with the best margins among major vehicle producers. Of course with TSLA one can point at Ferrari (RACE) or Porsche as high margin examples.

One perrineal clever but of FUD is to never ever consider Free Cash Flow or anything at all like the old metrics of ‘acid test’, ‘current ratio‘ or the old simplistic one ‘debt/equity’. None of that is ever done frequently because these all show TSLA is in a class of one among major industrials, the only such case among automakers.

I admit this post to have more than a bit of “Sarcasm That Drips From [My] Pores”. Why? Because so many of us have forgotten fundamental value analysis if we ever knew it!

Ben Graham has become obsolete technologically, but his notion of Value’ remains sound. If we can only overcome our obsession with quarterly and shorter surface metrics coupled with a propensity to trust You Tube as a fundamental source of truth, if only we could … we might learn how to perceive obvious facts and ignore those who are ‘paid per click’ Were we able to do that we might have a chance to actually learn what marketing is, rather that confusing the former with advertising or sales./s

Yes, sarcastic! It is profoundly irritating to see so many people so devoted to trivialities and surface topics, never bothering to learn the difference between reality and surface perception.

Here is a valid analogy of why looking at the surface can be catastrophically wrong:

This African lake may literally explode—and millions are at risk

The bottom of Lake Kivu, one of the African Great Lakes, contains combustible carbon dioxide and methane that threatens countless communities.

www.nationalgeographic.com

@Tony73 points our regarding AAPL one does need to discern reality, not just at the surface.
Lake Kivu really is beautiful and placid on the surface.

Piss! I forgot the TM.

 

[mad474]

You know what would move the SP? A cash dividend (even a pittance), since that would smoke out all the phantom share issued and off-shored over the past, what, 6 years? WAG, i bet there's 2 counterfeits for every legit TSLA shares, most of which have been bounced off-shore out of SEC/FINRA reporting requirements.

Those buggers will still have to pay cash though, and make it a lightning quick surprise! Don't give the dirty fraudsters even 30 days to scrape up some cash. What's the legal minimum? Back in Aug 2020, the 5:1 share dividend was done with 3 weeks notice.

The more I think about it, the more I love the idea!

If I haven't miscalculated, a one-cent surprise dividend only costs Tesla 32 million. Ok, the additional administrative costs will certainly be disproportionately high in the 7 figure range or higher, but it's still at the "Tesla petty cash level". If this exposes the hot air shareholders and drives them to expense or even madness, that would be great! Plus, I could use the payout to treat my SO to a delicious vegetarian ramen with fried tofu and bamboo shoots (small portion to go).

Questions:
Could the hot air shareholders manage and pay the dividend without batting an eyelid? Or would the action lead to the desired result, namely the identification of genuine shares and subsequently the bursting of the hot air shares? Assuming plausibility, who of you has a channel to Robin or Vaibhav and could launch the project?

Thank you in advance (also to and on behalf of Lodger)!

 

[growler23]

They scaled a very lucrative service business.

If only Tesla had ideas for ongoing, long term, slowly growing revenue streams, supported by folks that might not even own a Tesla vehicle.
Guess they'll just have to charge forward somehow or the profits might hit a wall

 

[scaesare]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749403188183052308

The best code is....

 

[cliff harris]

The more I think about it, the more I love the idea!

If I haven't miscalculated, a one-cent surprise dividend only costs Tesla 32 million. Ok, the additional administrative costs will certainly be disproportionately high in the 7 figure range or higher, but it's still at the "Tesla petty cash level". If this exposes the hot air shareholders and drives them to expense or even madness, that would be great! Plus, I could use the payout to treat my SO to a delicious vegetarian ramen with fried tofu and bamboo shoots (small portion to go).

Questions:
Could the hot air shareholders manage and pay the dividend without batting an eyelid? Or would the action lead to the desired result, namely the identification of genuine shares and subsequently the bursting of the hot air shares? Assuming plausibility, who of you has a channel to Robin or Vaibhav and could launch the project?

Thank you in advance (also to and on behalf of Lodger)!

I think any dividend from Tesla would be spun by the FUD in the media to be 'the growth is over!' as well as 'Tesla's meagre dividend shows its on shaky financial ground'. The only way to avoid that is to pay a pretty chunky dividend. Easy to depict $32m as a gimmick, but pay out $1bn or $2bn, and thats harder to ignore.
Plus way harder for the shorts .
Personally I would prefer a $2bn buyback. Tesla stock is obviously being pushed down right now, so a buyback would help with that, and be a morale boost to employees with shares/options.
There are 3,176,000,000 Tesla shares so maybe a $0.50 dividend?

(BTW Nvidia pays dividends, albeit very small, so perhaps the association with low-growth companies is not strong?)

 

[Krugerrand]

If TSLA had gone from ~$20 in late 2019 to ~ $200 4 years later in a relatively stable path (80% returns YoY, no peaks to $300, $400) while the company has followed the same trajectory, would people be complaining about share price?

I don' think so. I think people would be very happy with their returns, and excited for future long term potential appreciation.

Instead people are whining that the share price is too low, when really the financials don't agree. They are simply whining people the share price was artificially higher before.

It's probably healthier to erase Q3 2020 - Q3 2022 from your memory.

Irrelevant. All day long, every day. Why? Because that’s not what happened and it’s not what’s going to happen and there’s no ability to go back for a do-over.

The psychology of hypothetical ‘what ifs’ is an exercise in living in the past with regret and unwillingness to accept what DID happen. It serves no positive purpose to the human mind, heart or soul. People shouldn’t put that boat anchor around their necks when trying to swim to shore.

People always think they’d do different and be different if they had a second go at things. That is a load of rice pudding. Just the act of going back in time would erase the knowledge, experience and lesson of the first go around.

The SP IS currently too low and does not accurately represent Tesla the company. This has been a historical trend for TSLA for most of the last decade for a variety of reasons you should be well-versed in, though, I’m unconvinced you understand. Conversely, there’s been very brief snippets of time where TSLA has accurately reflected the company or been too high (sorry Elon, you got that last wrong every time as you did the multiple recessions you predicted, but that’s ok because even the penultimate expert also didn’t have a clue).

There is an endless list of reasons for people’s current upset with the SP, but nowhere near the top, let alone on this planet, is the reason because the SP didn’t appreciate in a calm, collected, calculated, and measured manner.

 

[scaesare]

Re de-throning of the model Y. It could happen, at least in North America, but not until most if not all of the superchargers are open to the general public. After that there really isn’t any special sauce limiting people to a model Y. I suspect Hyundai could be an early competitor for both the model 3 and model Y once they have access to the supercharger network. Teslas market domination will drop like a stone once they get the supercharger network available to everyone via the NACS plug or adapter.

"Drop like a stone"?

I'm not so sure of that. While I can see Hyundai and Kia's offerings being compelling, don't forget it's a nascent market with lots of opportunity for expansion, as there's a huge untapped potential customer base. So other players can grow their sales substantially, while Tesla continues to dominate.

And why would that be? Because Elon believes moats are lame. So, while yes, he's opened NACS to the competition, there's marketing and brand value to Tesla. And income. And don't forget he's open-sourced their other patents... not that we've heard of folks taking him up on them in droves, but the point is that Elon isn't attempting to dominate the market via technology moats, he's doing it via the relentless pace of innovation.

While other companies waffle over if their 2024 model should have glossy cupholders, or matte, Telsa is Megacasting vehicles, opening a new Supercharger every other day while commencing v4 Superchargers, re-architecting assembly lines and process, and building the most comprehensive and capable self-driving capability the world has ever seen. Oh, and their energy division is bolstering the utility grid in multiple countries on a massive scale... Megapack 2 XL is out now...

THAT is what differentiates Tesla from the rest of the pack.

To (over)use the iPhone example... only recently have iPhone sales surpassed Android (Samsung & Co.). But even when Apple was #2 in sales, they were differentiated in a way that made them extremely profitable. Tesla feels very similar, with the caveat that Elon is not all about pure profit... he recognizes companies must be profitable to survive, but they (and that $$$) are a means to an end. And that end is transitioning the world to sustainable transport and energy.

Will the Y be #1 forever? Of course not. Will Tesla always be dominant? Not likely. Does that mean the "special sauce" is gone just because you can plug your Ford on to the Supercharger network? Not hardly...

And that tap can never be turned off again.

Jmho.

It doesn't need to be. Tesla will just build a new tap.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

If TSLA had gone from ~$20 in late 2019 to ~ $200 4 years later in a relatively stable path (80% returns YoY, no peaks to $300, $400) while the company has followed the same trajectory, would people be complaining about share price?

I don' think so. I think people would be very happy with their returns, and excited for future long term potential appreciation.

Instead people are whining that the share price is too low, when really the financials don't agree. They are simply whining because the share price was artificially higher before.

It's probably healthier to erase Q3 2020 - Q3 2022 from your memory.

When the stock was over 400 I think we were in an EV bubble that quickly burst

 

[FielderJones]

nooks baby

India qualifies