Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

These are things that a startup does. Tesla is or should be a more mature company...especially in regards to a mass produced car (Gen3). The CT doesn't even have AP, can't offroad currently, has a poor charging curve, cannot charge on non-Tesla NACs, doesn't have any sort of real towing modes for range estimation or payload estimation (like almost every truck in the world). And obviously the build quality on most of the customer deliveries has been pretty poor and random.

These are all normal with Tesla and I know of them and they will improve. I believe or hope for the car they want to sell 10k per month ASAP, it needs to be stable and ready to be positively reviewed, because unlike the CT, it's not going to be a niche rich person's toy. It's supposed to appeal to the masses.

The CT was never intended to take down the F series sales, despite the hopium, but a $25k EV that has mass appeal could take down ICE standard vehicle sales to a level that the M3/Y can't, if executed properly.

Every Tesla is a slap-down to some arrogant ICE/Hydrogen argument. Cybertruck included.

 

[keydiver]

the sub $30k car will also be closer to $30-$35k by the time all is said and done... the "sub $30k" will go the way of the 300 miles, $49k Cybertruck

Why? People might as well just buy a base Model 3 then. I don't think Tesla would go to all the trouble to create a completely new car, using completely new technology to manufacture and assemble it, just to have it come in a couple thousand dollars less than the Model 3. They could spend much less money to just create a new, smaller battery pack to fit the Model 3 that meets the new IRA guidelines to get a $7500 tax credit. It just wouldn't make sense.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Where have you been all these years x 4 for Tesla ERs, Danny boy?

Marching on Gondor?

Almien!

 

[2daMoon]

Can any of the technical analysts on the forum determine with any accuracy whether a chart would show if we have achieved peak bickering?

Asking for a friend...

 

[jerry33]

Short memory much? All Tesla vehicles were shipped with a lot of features missing. My Model 3 didn’t have backseat heaters working for several months. The car didn’t have hill hold, chime on lock, dog mode, cat mode, joe mode, fart mode, romance mode - The
list is endless. I know what you’re going to say next so let me rebut that - it’s not relevant what you think is required at time of sale. The fact remains, every single vehicle Tesla has sold has been feature incomplete from day 1. It’s how they roll. CT shipping incomplete is no different.

It's way more important to get the first ones out the door than it is to have them feature complete. Every piece of software is the same way.

 

[Mengy]

Have owned all my TSLA (2500 shares ) since 2016 and have never sold any of it. I was in for the long-term but now I’m starting to question that decision. I don’t see anything else in 2024 that is going to give the stock any kind of boost perhaps I’m missing something. I’m considering rolling it into AMZN

I also don't think anything in 2024 will give TSLA a boost, at least not a meaningful one. I don't think we'll be staying at $181 like we are today, but I doubt we'll see $300 at all in 2024 now either. When (if?) the Fed lowers rates that could possibly push us up again, but given the expected low production growth coupled with relatively flat EPS, I'm not even sure that would boost TSLA much in 2024.

Now, your thoughts about rolling your TSLA into AMZN is certainly one choice. AMZN will probably outperform TSLA this year.

HOWEVER, this is Tesla, and while 2024 and even some of 2025 might be (relatively) flat for TSLA, we have any number of catalysts which could be surprises to the upside by a good amount. FSD v12 might really start progressing fast now that it's end to end AI. Optimus is progressing quickly, and while it certainly won't enter production this year, if Tesla deploys prototypes into it's own factories and starts showing the world what it is capable of, well the stock just might explode up on such a thing. And we do have Gen3 production coming late next year.

"Time in the market" almost always beats "timing the market". While rolling TSLA into AMZN for 2024 might be a good short term move, Tesla is unpredictable, and it could suddenly respond to some unforseen positive catalyst (of which we have many coming up) which launches the stock upwards like what happened in 2020. If you are all in on AMZN when that happens, well then you miss the runup.


As a long TSLA holder you have to ask yourself: do you believe in the long term growth story, even despite some lulls in that story from time to time? Because lulls will happen, they are normal and even expected to a degree, but if your confidence is easily shaken by such lulls then maybe TSLA isn't the investment for you. For example, VOO is a time and trued reliable investing vehicle.

Personally, despite a potential one or two year lull, Tesla looks stronger than ever to me with regards to future growth. I'm holding on.

 

[jerry33]

The CT was never intended to take down the F series sales, despite the hopium, but a $25k EV that has mass appeal could take down ICE standard vehicle sales to a level that the M3/Y can't, if executed properly.

It doesn't need to take down the F series, but even a few percent will reduce F series profits by a lot. This was discussed in detail some time ago.

 

[NicoV]

following a pattern...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750545815687291276

It’s not a real earnings release if the 10% brake isn’t hit the day after.
2 days later we often see a similar move in the other direction.
Anyway, it doesn’t matter that some people get scared. It doesn’t really matter if Tesla grows 20% or 40% in 2024. What does matter is that this company is still the first company you think about when you see the term ‘EV’.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750565100849627232

 

[The Accountant]

Worst earnings call ever: CFO couldn't reply to questions clearly and in a good english, I missed 40% of what he said, never said anything financially meaningful, even Deepak was better than him.

I have worked for and with some very polished CFOs who could not get the job done. They looked great, spoke well, smiled often but couldn't deliver the results. I too wish Vaibhav was a better communicator but my hunch is that he was Zach's right hand person and may have had some responsibility for the financial results that we saw from 2018 to 2022 (Vaibhav joined in 2017). His focus on cost reduction and capital allocation toward innovation and growth drivers is promising. We'll learn more of who we have over the next couple of quarters.

 

[UkNorthampton]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750565100849627232

Tesla stretch - in car purchasing timescales

 

[NicoV]

Zach Kirkhorn was the most effective communicator in the leadership team. The last two calls would have gone a lot better if he was still on-board.

Zach had a really sleep inducing voice (it doesn’t help that these earnings calls are in the middle of the night in Europe). The new CFO is slightly better in that respect. Only slightly.

 

[jerry33]

I have worked for and with some very polished CFOs who could not get the job done. They looked great, spoke well, smiled often but couldn't deliver the results. I too wish Vaibhav was a better communicator but my hunch is that he was Zach's right hand person and may have had some responsibility for the financial results that we saw from 2018 to 2022 (Vaibhav joined in 2017). His focus on cost reduction and capital allocation toward innovation and growth drivers is promising. We'll learn more of who we have over the next couple of quarters.

I thought Vaibhav spoke much more understandably than many from India. I don't see any issue here. If I can understand what a person says, they get a pass because my hearing is not the best--even with hearing aids it's still sub-par by quite a ways.

 

[hobbes]

Didn't drew say they just switched the Model Y to the 4680 CT cells?

Didn´t find that in the transcript, searched for 4680...
Maybe you can look again?

Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

TSLA earnings call for the period ending December 31, 2023.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

[invested since 2016...] I don’t see anything else in 2024 that is going to give the stock any kind of boost perhaps I’m missing something. I’m considering rolling it into AMZN

I believe that Gandalf memed it best:

Cheers to the LONG-distance wizards!

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

So my stock predictions are:

On top of a macro correction in next 2 months pushing it down with everything else (after big boost from FOMC meetings), Tesla will correct down after Q1 earnings. Maybe get as low as $180 to $190 (just looking at 6 month support lines).

It will then go back up to mid $200s (like $240), and oscillate around there until market finally realizes changes in future earnings and it moves out of the channel upwards.

I predict it will break $300 in the summer of 2024.

Well the first part of this happened. Might go a bit lower but hard to see much further from here.

Still believe it will correct back up a bit and then oscillate, but a bit harder to see $300 happening by summer given few avenues to show earnings growth. Maybe end of year.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are you saying you believe the Gen3 will also be an 800v pack architecture car?

Yes I am. It's save on wiring cost for the powertrain, even though at 41KWh the pack will likely max out somewhere just North of 120KW charge speed. But it's the area under the curve that matters for charging time, right? The switchable 400/800v packs are being developed now for CT, that's the expensive part. So we'll see, but this is what I expect.

 

[Tony73]

Not sold. Sitting on dealership lots. And you’ve zero idea what any of those dealer vehicles sold for because everyone pays a different price. Nobody pays sticker price except at Tesla. OEMs have stuffed their dealer network with cars and all over are laying off people and cutting production. Don’t be disingenuous.

Cox Automotive Forecast: U.S. Auto Sales Expected to Finish 2023 Up More Than 11% Year Over Year, as General Motors Retains Top Spot, Hyundai Motor Group Jumps Past Stellantis - Cox Automotive Inc.

Cox Automotive publishes its U.S. auto sales forecast each month prior to the automaker's reporting their sales results.

www.coxautoinc.com

New vehicle dealer inventory at the end of 2023 was 72 days compared to 60 days in 2022. Higher but not unheard of. The industry panics around 90 days.

A common misconception is that the sales figures reported by other car companies are deliveries to dealers and not retail. That is not true. They report the combination of fleet sales and dealer sales to end users.

When dealer inventory builds up to high levels, the car companies offer incentives or even slow down production. There is no evidence to suggest incentives were unusually high last year. Up for sure but only by a few thousand dollars.

Cox Automotive Analysis: General Motors’ Q2 2023 U.S. Market Performance - Cox Automotive Inc.

Cox Automotive analyzes General Motors' quarterly market performance including sales, prices, incentives and market share.

www.coxautoinc.com

Average transactions price at GM and Ford do not support the assertion that prices have dropped anywhere near as much as Tesla. Neither do their auto gross margins.

We don’t have to guess about a lot of things. Derailed numbers are available. When Cox automotive says 15.5 million cars were sold last year, they don’t mean to dealers.

All the data we have suggest that Tesla is alone in reducing prices to the extent it did. The flip side is that no one else was trying to grow sales by double digits percentages.

The notion that we know nothing because we don’t know what any individual buyer paid is absurd.

 

[heltok]

A decent reply to a good post, then a lot of comments showing that x is terrible for productive debates:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750486563144737225

 

[scaesare]

Yes I am. It's save on wiring cost for the powertrain, even though at 41KWh the pack will likely max out somewhere just North of 120KW charge speed. But it's the area under the curve that matters for charging time, right? The switchable 400/800v packs are being developed now for CT, that's the expensive part. So we'll see, but this is what I expect.

Yeah I tend to agree, it wouldn't surprise me to see them settle on the 800v architecture going forward... while the contactors necessary are an added expense, as you say the smaller conductors in the car, not having additional SKU's for inverters, chargers[1], etc... could likely make up for it.

[1] Speaking of which, does anybody know about the CT on-board charger? What it's input current rating are, and/or if it's an 800v unit or the pack reconfigures itself for 400v chargning?