Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

I keep changing my mind - is it FSD or Optimus that gets the stonk pumped up first?

With how slow FSD is progressing, I feel Optimus will meaningfully contribute to revenues before FSD will. Robotaxis are the real money with FSD, but even after FSD is solved for L5 they still have to actually BUILD the Robotaxis and then deploy them in a taxi service infrastructure. That will take a long time, and by the time all of this happens I think Tesla will be well into ramping Optimus production.

Just my opinion, of course.

 

[GhostSkater]

Yeah I tend to agree, it wouldn't surprise me to see them settle on the 800v architecture going forward... while the contactors necessary are an added expense, as you say the smaller conductors in the car, not having additional SKU's for inverters, chargers[1], etc... could likely make up for it.

[1] Speaking of which, does anybody know about the CT on-board charger? What it's input current rating are, and/or if it's an 800v unit or the pack reconfigures itself for 400v chargning?

If anything, I think they could go lower voltage for next gen platform. Way fewer cell monitoring chips for the BMS, and no added benefit of going higher voltage in a "low power" and small battery vehicle

Those monitoring chips were a real pain to get until a while ago, so reducing them by going lower voltage is a big win, but don't know how it is currently due to being fired lol

Any decision that reduces the number of anything you can be sure Tesla is taking it

 

[lafrisbee]

I also believe that no matter how little money we all end up with it will be worth several times its value once bots free us from work. Old money will be given a disproportionate worth in the new world.
Ant

 

[EVNow]

The whole game of "missing wall street estimates" - since when was it wrong to reveal the truth about a company's financial situation, and to reveal that the guesstimates were all wrong? We never hear "Wall Street Guesswork was wrong again!" - because it's the financial media. Any failure is always placed on the company to meet the bar set by Wall Street analysts. Wong way around.

Stock price is based on "wall st estimates". SP will adjust based on actual vs estimates.

If you think Tesla is valued low now - you should be happy buying stock !

ps : If Tesla gave clear Revenue & EPS guidance like some do, may be SP will be based on that and actuals will be judged against those ?

 

[Tony73]

If it's any consolation, TSLA is likely to exit the S&P 500 's "Top 10" list tomorrow morning... that's right BROADCOM is the future!

BROADCOM may not be the future but it’s a FCF beast. Up 2x in the last 12 months while paying a very attractive dividend.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A year ago: bearish and afterwards $TSLA
A month ago: bullish and afterwards $TSLA drops
Now he's complaining again.

Remind me how much GM stock fell the day they removed guidance for the year?

lol, Wall-E...

 

[insaneoctane]

This is true. However, that’s not how the average person views the situation. They don’t do the math from last year vs this year. YOU might. Other people don’t. Most other people don’t. All they see is ‘OMG! look at how high those interest rates are!?’ All they hear is the constant bombardment of news about how bloody high interest rates are. All they know is that they can’t afford the monthly payment. Period end of story.

It's not just about interest rates on loans. It's also about how inflation has reduced/gutted many folk's disposable income.

 

[wtlloyd]

Yeah this robot thing is so much pie in the sky, it’s an illusion at this
point. The last reason I would buy tesla is the robot …..

Drives me a little crazy when people say things like "Optimus is going to take over the factory" and "they are delaying Gen 3 until Optimus is ready".

Ummm, they are building the world's 3rd largest parking structure, with space for 11,000 cars, RIGHT NOW.

Maybe someone oughta ask them if they've thought about this?

It won't be me!

 

[joh01652]

Absolutely. So he’s lying about Tesla for financial gain for himself and someone who’s paying him. So a person who would lie for monetary gain is ‘fill in the blank’. And people who believe him when he says things are ‘fill in the blank’.

"I never bought a man who wasn't for sale." --William A. Clark, U.S. Senator, purportedly in response to criticism of bribing members of the Montana legislature.

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

I listened to the web session live. There was nothing to get excited about. Although I started thinking a while ago. If the stock really tanks won't it be easier for
EM to get 25% of the company. Maybe he planned this. Tell me if I'm wrong

 

[Singuy]

or not. the outlook of slowing growth and no accelerating growth drivers in the pipeline for the next ~24 months isn't justifying a 40+ P/E ratio

Costco has a revenue growth of 6.3% with a PE ratio of 54.
Walmart revenue growth was 6.44% and has a PE ratio of 31

I think it's safe to say wall street doesn't give a crap about revenue growth or PE ratios. You would think Walmart's PE ratio should be higher but it's not. And why are these dinosaurs having higher than tech PE ratios anyways? Nobody really knows

In my view, wallstreet assigns high PE to companies that can potentially knock out the incumbent. If Walmart has a decade of poor management, it wouldn't be surprising to see Costco taking over. This is why Tesla has a high PE because legacy auto are spending most of their time defending marketshare. They have nowhere to go but down unless Tesla goes belly up...then they remain the same which is not really great for PE anyways.

 

[kabin]

What is the PE ratio of a company with expected growth rate of 10%?

I'll guess 1/6th of the original PE assuming the PEG was 60 and the growth rate dropped to 10.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's why we have these wild swings and "FUD" about Tesla's cost cutting leaving customers without features for over a year, poor QA/build quality, etc. As an investor, I would hope you would want Tesla to mature a bit. I do. 5 seconds? Is that when USS-less cars will be getting the rest of their FSD features?

Your opinion unless you’re holding back on us and you were in the room when they were talking about it.

I don't even know what this means?

I don’t agree at all that’s why the FUD and volatility exist.

Nope. Not interested in Tesla becoming your definition of mature. They already are my kind of mature; 29B cash in bank, minimal debt, fast yet controlled expansion, the hyper focus of a pitbull with a bone on efficiencies in all regards, causing all kinds of ruckus by doing things their way, products I and millions of other people love, innovations out the wazoo - yeah, I couldn’t be happier with how my 2012 investment has turned out. I’m in no position to second guess a company that pulled off a miracle and a half against all odds. Perfect execution mistakes and all.

I’m anxious to get my overpriced paper weight. It comes with tires, so I’m good. It’ll go where I need it to. I assure you, within five minutes of hitting the road with it, I’ll be pulled over by the sheriff and I’ll have to take him for a ride. I’ll be lucky to get a mile down the road before being pulled over by one of his deputies. I will be accosted at the local tavern, at the local hardware store, at Wally World - I’ll have to loosen up my schedule otherwise I’ll end up getting everywhere late. Not one single person will give a hoot that it’s not feature complete, including myself. Been there, done that. Best car I’ve ever owned to date is my Model 3. And every year it’s better than the year before despite being of the original design and not feature complete the day I bought it.

I understand this doesn’t work for you, but I’m not a one off person anymore than you are.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's not just about interest rates on loans. It's also about how inflation has reduced/gutted many folk's disposable income.

Absolutely.

 

[insaneoctane]

tink, tink, tink, tink, goes the spring winding up...

HODL y'all!

I've been hearing that sound for years now...

 

[2daMoon]

Drives me a little crazy when people say things like "Optimus is going to take over the factory" and "they are delaying Gen 3 until Optimus is ready".

Ummm, they are building the world's 3rd largest parking structure, with space for 11,000 cars, RIGHT NOW.

Maybe someone oughta ask them if they've thought about this?

It won't be me!

Optimus has to park their Robotaxi somewhere, don't they?

/s

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

Absolutely.

Can you please explain what's been inflated. I bought my first house in the 1980s for16% mortgage.. You could buy CDs paying 10%. And the inflation stayed high into the Reagan administration. I know food is high, but that's due to the greed of the food conglomerates. A 2 liter bottle of soda I drink went from 2.69 to 3.39 in a matter a of few months. But what else is inflated, and I'm not being naive, I'm just trying to understand

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Can you please explain what's been inflated. I bought my first house in the 1980s for16% mortgage.. You could buy CDs paying 10%. And the inflation stayed high into the Reagan administration. I know food is high, but that's due to the greed of the food conglomerates. A 2 liter bottle of soda I drink went from 2.69 to 3.39 in a matter a of few months. But what else is inflated, and I'm not being naive, I'm just trying to understand

Should quit drinking soda...NFA of course.

Relax everyone....$TSLA will be fine.

 

[Oveeus]

So many comments on reasons to HODL.

Please people, where are the buyers?!

I’m in today for another 475 shares. Who’s with me?

 

[2daMoon]

I've been hearing that sound for years now...

It does seem to be a constant, doesn't it?

Well, except for brief moments when Jack manages to pop out of the box. Like he did early last year.
There was also that little pop in 2020 but the spring had been wound up for a long time before popping.
There have been others. When in doubt, zoom out to see them.

Unfortunately, the pop never takes as much time as the cranking does.