Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Check out that hella cliff we just fell off! Send it! New slope achieved! EPIC SWAN! New record for quick drop? Totally gnarly nosedive brahs + bradettes + catbrahs + catbrahdettes. View attachment 1012558

A quick search... I remember the 20% one.... Wanna see the scar?

The 7 best days for Tesla shorts, and what caused them

Friday's slump was the seventh-steepest ever for Tesla, and the biggest since the SEC announced in September that it's investigating Musk.

www.cnbc.com

Tesla's stock sees biggest one-day drop ever

Tesla shares plunged by 21 percent on Tuesday in the biggest one-day loss ever for the stock, CNBC notes. Tesla shares soared recently ahead of the electric-car company's recent 5-to-1 share split, with its market value surpassing that of some leading rival automakers, including Toyota and...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[2daMoon]

Considering how bad Tesla kept the truth from me (and all of you), and then ignored their across the board failure I think I am better than I should be. I could have just ignored the truth and been a happy lil fanboy.

I think these posts are leading to a "bored" failure.

If I were to lie, and say that I agree with you, would you stop?










Bottom line, I'm one of millions of people looking forward to owning a CT, because it is everything I've always wanted a pickup to be. Just please don't mention this to lafrisbee, okay?

 

[Todd Burch]

Maybe I was listening to a different call than were you. I recall Dojo as High Risk, High Reward, worth the investment to prove. That is consistent with everything I have heard Tesla say, Elon or others. perhaps it is simply that most companies might invest only in 'sure things' from their perspective. Others invest in now approaches and new technologies and exert the effort and resources needed to make them successful of they can. Elon and Tesla have always followed that approach.

Perhaps the idea that absolutely dedicated hardware and software is superior to do pure neural net training may not necessarily be correct. Therin lies the question. Tesla is testing that hypothesis. Hence high risk/high reward if it works/ 'meh' if it does not.

Among the experts among us there are firm opinions. After all this is NOT a settled question. I am not an expert. I cannot even pose the question in technical terms. I am familiar with the Musk and Tesla propensity to do things experts say cannot be done and do them anyway. From reusable rockets to strange little laptop battery cells powering a car..regular 'impossible' things happen.

From FSD itself to DOJO to 4680 scaling, Optimus and paintless cars some things take longer, some don't.

Personally I expect impossible things to take longest, improbable ones a bit less time, and evolutionary ones faster. Hence: HODL implies patience for miracles.

I’m not saying that Elon literally said Dojo wasn’t succeeding. I’m saying he made it *sound* like it wasn’t likely to succeed, with these quotes pulled right from the transcript:

Elon: “But I would think of Dojo as a long shot.”

Elon: “But it's not something that is a high probability. It's not like a sure thing at all.”

He went on to say it’s working, but the tone was very much underwhelming. My question was why he seemed to crap so hardly on Dojo’s probability of success and at the same time confirm they’re investing a half billion in a compute center.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Recognizing my skills are junior re stock Technical Analysis, I found this.
Useful? Biased? Already a source for many of you? Seems to say a lot at a glance anyway.

TSLA - Tesla Stock Trader's Cheat Sheet - Barchart.com

Support Resistance, Pivot Points for Tesla Inc with Key Turning Points and Technical Indicators.

www.barchart.com

 

[2daMoon]

I’m not saying that Elon literally said Dojo wasn’t succeeding. I’m saying he made it *sound* like it wasn’t likely to succeed, with these quotes pulled right from the transcript:

Elon: “But I would think of Dojo as a long shot.”

Elon: “But it's not something that is a high probability. It's not like a sure thing at all.”

He went on to say it’s working, but the tone was very much underwhelming. My question was why he seemed to crap so hardly on Dojo’s probability of success and at the same time confirm they’re investing a half billion in a compute center.

Perhaps we should also be thinking of Dojo as the entire compute side of solving autonomy and AI, rather than as only a specific subset of hardware within that greater scope. Though his comment about a "long shot" was likely directed at the Tesla Dojo processor, specifically.

Maybe Tesla's Dojo processor, along with Nvidia, and AMD processors are being used to make up the Dojo Project much the same way the Booster and the second stage, which is named Starship, together make up the whole "Starship" for SpaceX.

Elon has always been ready to shift to any alternative that does the job more efficiently, or, to source similar but different resources for the same end result (i.e.: a variety of batteries). It seems more and more like the semantics might have shifted to encompass the entire project as Dojo.

Anyone else get that vibe?

 

[Fred42]

I’m not saying that Elon literally said Dojo wasn’t succeeding. I’m saying he made it *sound* like it wasn’t likely to succeed, with these quotes pulled right from the transcript:

Elon: “But I would think of Dojo as a long shot.”

Elon: “But it's not something that is a high probability. It's not like a sure thing at all.”

He went on to say it’s working, but the tone was very much underwhelming. My question was why he seemed to crap so hardly on Dojo’s probability of success and at the same time confirm they’re investing a half billion in a compute center.

The answer might be that he's discouraged, but success is still a possibility and he's not prepared to let it go. And the $500 million is over five years. And they have to employ people in NYS to do something or pay big bux to the state.

 

[cliff harris]

Some roads in Europe are too narrow - like the old town in many cities and cozy small villages by the sea. But most of the roads in Europe are perfectly fine for the Cybertruck.
I love to go on holiday by car. And I have always had large comfy sedan type cars. My Model Y is the smallest car I have ever had. And for many years I drove around Europe in a large motorhome.
It is no worse avoiding narrow streets in old towns with the Cybertruck than it is avoiding the same streets in a huge motorhome or just a large sedan the size of the Model S or a Mercedes S Class. Use Park and Ride or just walk to the centre of town.
And yes I have had to reverse my car for what felt like a mile or so on a narrow winding road when on holiday in England. But I would have had to do the same if I drove the smallest car you can imagine.

There are towns in Cornwall where my model S could not go. Not in terms of fitting side by side with a passing car, not in terms of only going if nobody was parked on the street, but in terms of the street being not as wide as the car...
The cybertruck would find half of cornwall undriveable. It would also have trouble just fitting in the road outside my house.

Very very few people will buy a vehicle that limits them to certain roads. The idea of paying £70,000 to buy car that meant you had to rely on park-and-ride buses is comical. Most people I talk to find the model Y to be way too big.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The three stages of stock ownership (in no particularorder): ball, bawl, bail...

Yeah.. 'cuz its got electrolytes!

 

[CHGolferJim]

OT - (Mission related)

Costa Rica water has been contaminated by hydrocarbons. Several metro regions at a min. Est 100,000 impacted. It's Costa Rica - people!!! It's suppose to be one of the last untouched paradises remaining. It's what they sell besides bananas and coffee which are not doing well either due to climate (heat/change/drought). Very sad indeed.

"The Ministry of Health stresses the importance of water being colorless, odorless, and tasteless. Residents are urged to follow guidelines and report any taste or odor of diesel, gasoline, kerosene, or other hydrocarbons in their water supply."

Costa Rica gasoline distribution is gov't owned, so cover-up is quite possible here. They used to refine it locally, but have shifted into purchasing it already refined. I don't know any more details, but obviously should be looking here first. Only the gas stations are private, yet the prices are exactly the same everywhere in CR.

Costa Rica Acts Over Toxic Drinking Water Emergency

A Toxic Drinking Water Emergency demands action from water authorities in Costa Rica after the discovery of contaminated water.

ticotimes.net

Sad news, thanks for the link.

 

[FastEddieB]

Recognizing my skills are junior re stock Technical Analysis, I found this.

My working assumption is that Technical Analysis doesn’t - and can’t - work for a variety of reasons.

But that’s been touched upon elsewhere, so no need to go into details here.

 

[hobbes]

Good things (hopefully) coming up:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751291714902368479

 

[Snerruc]

Hearing aids went up $1,000 since 2022. (now $6,900). Necessary, but has to be one of the biggest rip-offs ever.

They’re still $1700 at Costco. Just as good as name brand.

 

[Buckminster]

So we have a major unsolved crime:

What are the hard to copy machines that build Redwood using unboxed method?

Must be bots right?

Right?

 

[SOULPEDL]

So we have a major unsolved crime:

What are the hard to copy machines that build Redwood using unboxed method?

Must be bots right?

Right?

I'm counting on that part. And if the robots are not quite ready, humans can sub in as needed. (In fact, Sat Morning CBS just did a story on a new automated fast-food place. The new offset job coming was defined as someone who can maintain the automation, but can also flip burgers and shake fries.)

Dan Ives commented throughout, predicting 200+ such fast food places by year 2025. Driving force is the Minimum Wage going to $20/hr making it more economical to automate this industry.

Hey! Maybe he's catching on? But those were not your NN kind for sure. I can imagine a robot with much more "Utility" by 2025, can you Dan?

So was the point to scare (every kid at every fast food place in the world) into fearing robots? You decide. My wife thinks I'm looking for it too deeply, I don't do this do I?

 

[winfield100]

They’re still $1700 at Costco. Just as good as name brand.

OT OT
(tho kinda if thinking abt neuralink, similar as 8 electrodes implanted but in ear with external tiny computer processor)
@Snerruc
hearing aides just increase the noise level input, so you get louder noise and _no_ increase in comprehension
Cochlear implants are _way_ better.
single data point
1% to 80+% increase in comprehension of spoken words, after re-training brain.
(from profoundly deaf to hearing a _lot_ better and comprehension way better)
(plus, you can blue tooth directly into the electrodes!)

 

[Mengy]

This latest Q and WS/analysts have forced me to take a step back and reevaluate my investment thesis. It turns out, the only realization that I've come up with is that I've artifically applied my desired timeline to Tesla. There are many unexpected factors that have impacted the reality of Tesla's execution speed. Most of these things have been mentioned before (pandemic, wars, interest rates, inflation, politics, wallstreet, etc). The good work that Tesla aims to do is absolutely impacted by the macro factors. WS isn't trustworthy, nor is the media. As we brace for the latest political cycle, I'm reminded just how prevalent FUD is. Also, WS is far less patience than me, so I need to ignore them. I really resonated with @The Accountant when he commented on how private executives don't check the value of their companies daily. That's the real message. I want the stock price to 2x or 4x or more because I want validation and I want to see more 0's....but wanting it to happen faster isn't going to make it happen any faster, it's only going to frustrate me along the way. I'm still very committed and proud to have a small piece of ownership in Tesla and will use this period of reflection to try and slow my expectations down and smell the roses along the journey.

Well said, agreed 100%.

 

[Captkerosene]

Maybe I was listening to a different call than were you. I recall Dojo as High Risk, High Reward, worth the investment to prove. That is consistent with everything I have heard Tesla say, Elon or others. perhaps it is simply that most companies might invest only in 'sure things' from their perspective. Others invest in now approaches and new technologies and exert the effort and resources needed to make them successful of they can. Elon and Tesla have always followed that approach.

I think people took Elon's Dojo comments to be a progress report when actually he was just informing us about the risks going forward.

 

[Snerruc]

Interesting, I’ve been around a few years here, and I can’t remember hearing as much negativity as now. But I’m a doofus so what do I know? I tend to think of this as a good sign. Remember “the Model 3 won’t sell because it didn’t have a lift gate”? Frankly if Tesla was going balls to the wall on the truck, I would be really worried. This is a leap into the unknown with a work vehicle to boot. Care to think about the car companies that have spent years and billions, thinking they had solved all the problems, and finding they had missed something on a high volume product? Getting a relatively small number in the hands of buyers to see how they misuse it and abuse it is smart. Remember the Airflow? The Edsel? The Northstar v8? Eco boost? Let’s see how people abuse this thing and how it holds up.

 

[Entropy]

When I'm talking about how impact of CT has changed in the last few years - this is what I'm talking about. CT is no longer the growth story ... its the next gen. If they could make a million CTs, that would be the growth story now ....

We all know that CT will not be sold in very large numbers and it will not add significantly to total deliveries, but CT represents way more that just growth numerically. Its impact if far wide and not easily quantifiable. For example:

1. Consider CT as investment for advertisement. Every single CT being sold represents an ad. That is exactly the reason multiple CT are touring China, CT will pull crowds in the stores and people will learn about Tesla and likely end up buying model 3/Y.

2. 48 volt architecture- gigabit ethernet cabling for data and 48 volt power on same cable ( decrease in copper use/other efficiencies) is establishing groundwork for these technologies to slowly transition to all other platforms CT to next gen, then model s/x and then 3/y.

3. Achieving next level of vertical integration- from Batteries (4680) to all the chips running on 48 V, the benefits from this will take few years to manifest. Tesla's lithium refinery near corpus christie TX seems to be ahead of schedule (no analyst thought of it/or asked about it), this is the edge this forum provides. As few months/years go by, the impact of such deep integration (including lithium refinery) will be self evident. It is mind boggling to think how many start ups are encompassed in this one company -from material science/lithium refinery to software.

Only thing that deeply disappoints me is why every American (and for that matter every human being on earth) is not proud and supportive of Tesla.

 

[capster]

…
My feeling is 20M by 2030 is off the table now, I don't see how it can happen anymore. New factory construction is happening too slowly, and the delay on 4680 ramping has pushed back both CT and Gen3. I think more like 12M - 15M is much more likely by 2030.

All IMHO of course

Tesla controls their rate of manufacturing innovation.

The future rate of new factory construction will be, in part, a function of the rate of manufacturing innovation for the future factories.

In particular, if folks at Tesla are pleased with the processes, machines and factory they are making for unboxed manufacturing then they can replicate the factory for the Gen 3 vehicle much more quickly than it took to build the first *and* they can build factories in parallel.

Further, there may be other accelerants, even possibly Optimus, that may speed things along.