We’ll see. Historically Tesla’s q3 and q4 sales are considerably higher than q1/q2. In 2023 they were about even with q1/q2 despite aggressive price drops and incentives. My suspicion is they’ve hit a plateau. Maybe highland will help, but on the other hand the 3 lost the tax credit this year. Y refresh probably won’t hit the streets until 2025
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The shares Elon sells to cover execution and taxes most definitely go into the float.That's actually a really good stock offeing because those shares don't go into the float, and the votes are 100% guaranteed to align with The Mission.
After five years, all the shares can (not that GAAP cares about the lock period in the interim)
Here's my recommendation for Tesla. Reveal some mind blowing tech and simultaneously give Elon 55B. Stock settles back down to 300 when complete.
I don't know how, just do it! It's clearly your move Tesla. Blow our minds!
300
I don't know how, just do it! It's clearly your move Tesla. Blow our minds!
300
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Here's my recommendation for Tesla. Reveal some mind blowing tech and simultaneously give Elon 55B. Stock settles back down to 300 when complete.
I don't know how, just do it! It's clearly your move Tesla. Blow our minds!
That is absurd and could never happen with a company like Tesla.
It really isn't the company's style to do that sort of thing.
... hey Murphy, are you listening?
This fsd version is impressive, they are on the right track.
They guided for signficantly lower growth rate that last year. 30% is way too high. Maybe 20%.
And there are already production stops in Q1 to lower 2024 total as Model 3 wasn't really produced in Fremont in January as they switched to Highland.
But the biggest issue with the production analysis by looking at capacity is that Tesla is now not supply limited. They are demand limited. This is quite evident in the absolutely massive price cuts (way more than interest rate adjustments) and limiting of production of the Model Y at Austin and Berlin.
Sure, Berlin and Austin could potentially produce many more vehicles this year, but will Tesla be willing to lower prices even further?
The lack of price elasticity is honestly shocking.
Bullish signs on here flashing latelyAnother "sell near the bottom out of fear" scared money investor.
Oups ! What's going on with TSLA today ???? But every others are also in GREEN
The minutes of the FOMC are public record. The complaints you raise are typical political points raised by people who disagree with the decisions. I understand that the reality of all this seems unlikely to those who ar not familiar with it, especially since many of the participants, i.e. member banks, themselves have political views such as the Independent Community Banks or the giant names. There is every reason to carefully observe the public information. As for the Chairman/Chairwaoman of the FRS, they invariably generate loud objections. That really does not make their statements necessarily incorrect, just frequently politically incorrect.We've been around the block on this on several occasions. Suffice to say I find your explanations unconvincing, as the banks chain of ownship always leads back to the same small group, the same society which also owns Wall St. investment banks.
Having worked inside the system for much of your career, please do explain why the FED is making irrational interest rate decisions, harming the economy. Meanwhile they pretend the remaining inflation (housing) is a problem they can solve, when if fact they are themselves causing this inflation with interest rate hikes? Inexplicable? No, it's 'splicable (just unseemly).
Routinely, Chairman Powell has jaw-boned down the stock market in seeming response to the needs of hedge funds, who eagerly pounce on his hand-wringing (again, not supported by data). Twice is coincidence, three times is trend. There was literally a press conference when the SP started to go up during his remarks, a media article appeared, and he inexplicabley change gears to overwhelmingly negative for the rest of his talk. You can only say that doesn't happen if you don't look at it happening right in front of your eyes.
All are rhetorical questions, as there is no public information to provide definative evidence of this control. Such restrictions CAN NOT exist in a democracy without undue influence by powerful factions. Just because something is unseen, or unexplained, doesn't mean that its not true.
For example: explain gravity (I'll weight).
One can argue that the system is less benign than I assert that it is. It is, however, disingenuous to persist in blaming that system for the ills of the legislative and executive branches of the US government.
In context, I've long been aware of similar complaints from other central banks, from Japan to the Eurozone to Brazil and, stereotypically, Argentina. IN the latter, notably, the functions became overtly political, not just political complaints. Many other countries ahem seen such catastrophic results of making monetary policy overtly political.
So, I hear what you are saying. It's your right to say it. Alleging something does not make it true. We ahem trouble enough with FUD to allow it to rule opinion none of the very few well functioning parts of much of the world economies.
You want political control of central banking? Russia, Argentina and Venezuela are just three obvious cases.
Others are threatened regularly but most allow sanity to prevail.
General rule: when all extremes agree that a Central Bank is not doing well, it probably actually is doing its job. There is a reason why, for example, Alan Greenspan was famous for his ability to speak eloquently while convening essentially no useful information. That is usually not good, but Central Bank functions are always hard to fathom.
For US context I recommend studying The Bank of North America and then The Bank of the Manhattan Company. The US, like most countries has fought hard to avoid professionalism in monetary policy. When disaster strikes, as early 20th century wise politicians give up and try to create something akin to the Federal Reserve System. Not perfect but better than nearly all alternatives.
Elon would agree with that view. There is little reason for him to say anything much about that other than an odd complaint. As a TSLA shareholder I am grateful for the Federal Reserve System. As a human being I'm grateful for the Euro system.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Q3 was flat because of downtime for upgrades in factories world-wide, as Tesla explained. Q4 was up substantially vs Q1/2 . Why did you avoid just providing the numbers?
Year | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
2023 | 422,875 | 466,140 | 435,059 | 484,507 |
Favguy
Member
Man, You really don't seem to be getting this. Now is the time to buy more. I bought some last week at $185, and I'll admit, some more the week before at $220! Bet you think I'm a fool eh?
Well in my opinion that was a good price as well and I really don't care what happens over the next few months, or even year or two.Mostly because formatting a table from my phone is a pain in the ass and the information is easily verifiable. I wouldn’t call < 20k “substantially up”
Why did you avoid providing the previous years numbers?
Here’s a picture with the quarterly sales up to q2 2023.
I would like to see the following occur at some point:Here's my recommendation for Tesla. Reveal some mind blowing tech and simultaneously give Elon 55B. Stock settles back down to 300 when complete.
I don't know how, just do it! It's clearly your move Tesla. Blow our minds!
1. FSD v12 is wide released and good enough to do a cross country drive demo with minimal takeovers.
2. If decent, during that next quarter call Tesla would state significant increase in FSD uptake purchased/subscriptions due to the demonstration and Tesla announce a major manufacturer to license FSD. And during that same call announce a buyback with dividends since they are now making significant licensing revenue.
No need for robotaxi or Optimus to pan out anytime soon. Those events above would be enough to reach ATH and then some.
On a side note, I hope Tesla keeps the FSD license transfer going indefinitely. It is a great way to retain customers. I already knew with 80% confidence that my next vehicle would be a Tesla. With that FSD transfer, it would be 99%.
Even though I planned to drive my 2017 MS with 111k miles and still running great, the FUSC and FSD transfers is extremely compelling (along with a 1k discount for CT reservation owners).
GrandEnigma
Member
Man, didnt think that would be so triggering to people. Yes yes, email moar better as i read it from my fusion powered computer using my neighbors guest WiFi.Seriously you guys don’t find the humor in this post. /s is mandatory or you think it’s serious?I thought it was pretty hilarious
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I suppose hitting 1.8M units per Guidance didn't impress you either. Good thing Tesla won't provide any going forward, since people ignore it anyway and prefer their own spin.
Apple initially dropped when they stopped announcing iPhone sales. That drop didn’t last long. This too shall pass.
It doesn't surprise me that the company knew that their end of year sales are going to be slower than expected and issued guidance reflecting that. And again, they barely maintained a stagnant year (instead of typical near 50% growth at the end of year) despite price cuts and incentives that were far more aggressive than usual for this company.
But hey, if you truly believe the company is not in any trouble, you should buy as much stock as you can right now.
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I hope you are right. To me, first of all, I already have too many shares, around 50% in value of my assets. Second, my wife is watching my monthly performance, and I cannot tolerate too much volatility. 3rd, I lost quite a lot on shorting SMCI in January already, so my YTD performance is ugly. In retrospect, "Fortunately" I closed my short position of SMCI at $399 and now it is $643 and went as high as $683 yesterday.Man, You really don't seem to be getting this. Now is the time to buy more. I bought some last week at $185, and I'll admit, some more the week before at $220! Bet you think I'm a fool eh?
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