Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

The last para contains the words “high-speed”, right next to “ultra-automated”.
I’m not letting go of the dream of 6 second cadence, yet.
The logic:
20 seconds is too fast for humans, they would burn out, you lose the game to high staff turnover. High-speed necessitates zero-human. If you start with a zero-human premise, why settle for 20 second cadence when you can triple your capital utilisation with 6 second? And it solves the problem of 20m per year output in 2030 in the same swoop.

Optimus doesn’t feel right as the answer to 20 seconds. The design philosophy for bot v1 is one for one human to bot swappability, both ways. It would be another “bet the farm” for Musk, surely a place to avoid. Optimus isn’t certain enough for the timeline.

Long ago, before Optimus, Elon stumped robot suppliers by asking them the maximum speed at which they could operate. He assumed air resistance could come into play at some point. I forget where I read this years ago.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Damn youtube is shameless. Just saw an ad with deepfake Elon's speech/mouth talking about scanning a qr code to become rich with BTC.

I reported that one & account. Seen crap from that one too much with garbage like that. The stuff that you tube bans but allows this trash !? Like Farcebook

 

[MartinAustin]

It is looking like TSLA might just close in the green today.

How are all the bear-do-wells and FFFs (Faithful Followers of FUD) gonna feel about that?

Does anyone else worry about their delicate sensibilities at times like this?

One green day doesn't mean much, all it probably means is investors think it was oversold yesterday.

TSLA is still more-or-less at the same level it fell to following the reaction to the Earnings Report. Is it going to climb back from here? Or continue falling? (which would mean the last 7 or 8 trading days is some sort of dead cat bounce)

TSLA is down but not out. It will eventually climb back. The fortress balance sheet. increasing market share, Cybertruck/FSD/Semi/Megapack developments are on top of existing 3+Y growth.

To me this is nothing like the misery I felt back in H1 of 2019. The company has had several profitable years since then, and p-r-o-f-i-t is pretty hard to argue with.

 

[Ocelot]

I've been giving some thought lately as to what's going on with TSLA and piecing together from the information I'm getting.

So, a while back, a close buddy of mine worked at one of Tesla's suppliers and he/she got into TSLA after seeing the orders that TSLA was placing with them.

He/she has left the company since, but from talks that he/she got with former co-workers, the order amount has not changed.

This led me to conclude a few things:
1. I agree with Elon and the board on price reduction because Tesla is still in its development phase. If it cuts production, it'd mean that it's going to take longer for them to achieve the economy of scale that they are seeking. Right now, the overall return to scale is still positive. Meaning that the further they go, the lower the average cost. This would be vital in term of market share once the market has little to no option than shift to EV as deadline looms. Yes, there's totally a risk where somehow legacy automakers find their way to "convince" the government to give them more time. But shifting to EV is inevitable. It's not a matter of if, but rather when.

2. This is a big ASSUMPTION, but stay with me for a bit. Given the "hearsay" information that I was given, the fact that Tesla has not altered the amount of orders they are placing with their suppliers, leads me to believe one thing... that another model is coming. Tesla has hinted on Investor Day that there's another "van" vehicle in the line, even though they never talked about it anywhere else. So far, we have always been given information and potential dates for the 25k model. The production methodology and processes have been discussed on Investor Day as well, but not this "van" vehicle. I think this is on purpose.
Tesla has ALWAYS made 2 models out of the same platform with the exception of the Roadster and the Semi. S/X shares one. 3/Y share another, and CT is, IMO, going to share its platform with another vehicle.

And as Tesla irons out the kinks and bumps on CT ramp and build extra production lines, I believe they are going to announce this vehicle in a pure surprise fashion. It is going to be something like "oh... btw, we are announcing this new vehicle now that the ramp is over... and it starts shipping next quarter, orders starts today" kinda thing. People has put too much spotlight on Tesla and I think it and Elon has learned a thing or two about not oversharing unless he has to.

I hope you are right.

Everything has a cost though. It would be great if Tesla only adjusted costs semi-annually or something like that. The way they move things about now, seemingly irks some customers and destabilizes the secondary market. This seemingly has a larger effect on rentals/fleets that carry a large portion of retained value on their balance sheets.

 

[2daMoon]

One green day doesn't mean much, all it probably means is investors think it was oversold yesterday.

TSLA is still more-or-less at the same level it fell to following the reaction to the Earnings Report. Is it going to climb back from here? Or continue falling? (which would mean the last 7 or 8 trading days is some sort of dead cat bounce)

TSLA is down but not out. It will eventually climb back. The fortress balance sheet. increasing market share, Cybertruck/FSD/Semi/Megapack developments are on top of existing 3+Y growth.

To me this is nothing like the misery I felt back in H1 of 2019. The company has had several profitable years since then, and p-r-o-f-i-t is pretty hard to argue with.

I'll go add a /s

It was meant to be facetious.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

And here i was, wondering why $TSLA was up AH:

Ford tops fourth-quarter estimates, guides toward strong 2024

Ford tops fourth-quarter estimates, guides toward strong 2024

www.cnbc.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

i mean...if i were Elon, I would prob be mad at the media as well seeing this pic:

 

[GOVA]

I hope you are right.

Everything has a cost though. It would be great if Tesla only adjusted costs semi-annually or something like that. The way they move things about now, seemingly irks some customers and destabilizes the secondary market. This seemingly has a larger effect on rentals/fleets that carry a large portion of retained value on their balance sheets.

While true, Tesla is still in its very early stage. Yes, it is a far cry from 2013-2020 but they still will grow 10x. 10x not only in car production but also in very many new products and services.

Once they occupy a different spot on the S-curve(s), it will be another story. Now, they will have to grow and expand. Some collateral 'damage' is inevitable, in this case "destabilization of 2ndary market" and a few others like some ex-members of this forum.

 

[tslagreen]

I see posts about how the USA economy is doing well. I disagree. I personally know exactly zero people that feel the economy is doing well. But feelings and all that... here is some data.

View attachment 1015951

More comments and data in the thread

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754902193541435751

The restaurants I go to seem busy, especially for this time of year. IMO, the economy seems pretty good all things considered.

 

[Stretch2727]

And here i was, wondering why $TSLA was up AH:

Ford tops fourth-quarter estimates, guides toward strong 2024

Ford tops fourth-quarter estimates, guides toward strong 2024

www.cnbc.com

The losses keep getting bigger for Ford's EV segment. I do give them credit for publishing but it is ugly. Basically each vehicle cost 2x the price that they sold them. I believe this is fully accounted including SG & A and R & D expenses.

 

[Krugerrand]

I've been giving some thought lately as to what's going on with TSLA and piecing together from the information I'm getting.

So, a while back, a close buddy of mine worked at one of Tesla's suppliers and he/she got into TSLA after seeing the orders that TSLA was placing with them.

He/she has left the company since, but from talks that he/she got with former co-workers, the order amount has not changed.

This led me to conclude a few things:
1. I agree with Elon and the board on price reduction because Tesla is still in its development phase. If it cuts production, it'd mean that it's going to take longer for them to achieve the economy of scale that they are seeking. Right now, the overall return to scale is still positive. Meaning that the further they go, the lower the average cost. This would be vital in term of market share once the market has little to no option than shift to EV as deadline looms. Yes, there's totally a risk where somehow legacy automakers find their way to "convince" the government to give them more time. But shifting to EV is inevitable. It's not a matter of if, but rather when.

2. This is a big ASSUMPTION, but stay with me for a bit. Given the "hearsay" information that I was given, the fact that Tesla has not altered the amount of orders they are placing with their suppliers, leads me to believe one thing... that another model is coming. Tesla has hinted on Investor Day that there's another "van" vehicle in the line, even though they never talked about it anywhere else. So far, we have always been given information and potential dates for the 25k model. The production methodology and processes have been discussed on Investor Day as well, but not this "van" vehicle. I think this is on purpose.
Tesla has ALWAYS made 2 models out of the same platform with the exception of the Roadster and the Semi. S/X shares one. 3/Y share another, and CT is, IMO, going to share its platform with another vehicle.

And as Tesla irons out the kinks and bumps on CT ramp and build extra production lines, I believe they are going to announce this vehicle in a pure surprise fashion. It is going to be something like "oh... btw, we are announcing this new vehicle now that the ramp is over... and it starts shipping next quarter, orders starts today" kinda thing. People has put too much spotlight on Tesla and I think it and Elon has learned a thing or two about not oversharing unless he has to.

Question: what part/s is this referencing?

Is there any chance Tesla planned/plans to take the part internally? Either on the whole or in part? As in, is it possible Tesla is getting so many parts from that supplier and making the rest themselves?

 

[Krugerrand]

The restaurants I go to seem busy, especially for this time of year. IMO, the economy seems pretty good all things considered.

McDonalds and Taco Bell are always going to be busy.

 

[tslagreen]

McDonalds and Taco Bell are always going to be busy.

Can't resist the fries!

 

[joh01652]

Oh I've read enough to make a pretty well formulated opinion of Elon. If you have any real evidence to the contrary that he actually cares about the planet, cares about human rights, hasn't become a right wing conspiracy theorist, isn't anti-science, anti-vaccine, etc, I'm all ears.

Please, try to look on the bright side—Elon’s anti-science and anti-vax positions, as you call them, are actually GOOD THINGS from a big picture perspective, because all his “fanboys” are mindlessly going to obey whatever dumb thing he says and die from not being vaccinated. So, basically, Elon is killing off his rabid followers by not encouraging them to follow True Science.

You should actually be happy by these turns of events. Can you imagine how much healthier planet Earth would be if we lost, like, 6 billion humans? Earth’s ecosystems would really recover, in a major major way. The sooner human-hating Elon dies and takes his incorrigibly stupid unvaccinated right-wing conspiracy theorists with him, the better. See, so in a round-about sort of way, it's actually good Elon is a science denier.

Hope this helps your mood! Cheers and have a great day!

 

[Artful Dodger]

People, please remember: “Arguing with ignorance is like playing chess with a pigeon; no matter how good you are, the bird is going to knock the pieces over, crap on the board, and strut around like it’s victorious.” — Scott D. Weitzenhoffer

'Birds aren't real'.

 

[keydiver]

Damn youtube is shameless. Just saw an ad with deepfake Elon's speech/mouth talking about scanning a qr code to become rich with BTC.

I saw that back when I was trying to watch a SpaceX launch a month ago, disguised as a countdown. I reported it to Youtube, and they removed it.

 

[cliff harris]

I love to think that news tomorrow will lead with
OMG FORD LOSE $47,000 ON EVERY EV THEY SELL?????
But fords as-buyers play golf with most editors, so obviously it will all be
FORD STOCK ROCKETS AFTER BLOWOUT EARNINGS.
Its like nothing was learned from blackberry and kodak. Tesla have been around for over a decade now, showing all the established companies, WHAT to do and HOW to do it. They have even started sending them guidebooks on 48v, out of desperation that they get a clue...

...and yet they do not. I guess we can take solace in the laughable P/E ratio for Ford. I guess some long term investors can see just how likely they are to fail in the next five years. If I was a Tesla salesperson, if someone mentioned they were considering a mach-e or lightning, I might have to drop the $47k loss number. Does anyone REALLY want to buy an EV from a company with a huge incentive not to sell any, who may well not even survive to honor the warranty?

I knew Ford were rubbish at this, but honestly I let out an involuntary yelp when I saw just how bad it was.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gordo has entered the building...or wait, it could be Ross Goober, ah hell, I'll go with "Who is Toni Saccadummy, final answer"

Lol, 58 posts in 4.5 hrs until banned (beginning exactly 1 min after the Market opened). Folks, you have just witnessed a what the shortzes are afraid of: truthbombs.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[joh01652]

Elon is not anti-vaccine. He has made his views clear online.

Anti-science? Seriously? Are you aware of SpaceX and what they have accomplished?

I'm being sarcastic. I'm responding to his message, those are his terms.

 

[Drumheller]

I'm being sarcastic. I'm responding to his message, those are his terms.

Thanks. I didn't see the post you responded to. I've deleted mine.