I've been giving some thought lately as to what's going on with TSLA and piecing together from the information I'm getting.
So, a while back, a close buddy of mine worked at one of Tesla's suppliers and he/she got into TSLA after seeing the orders that TSLA was placing with them.
He/she has left the company since, but from talks that he/she got with former co-workers, the order amount has not changed.
This led me to conclude a few things:
1. I agree with Elon and the board on price reduction because Tesla is still in its development phase. If it cuts production, it'd mean that it's going to take longer for them to achieve the economy of scale that they are seeking. Right now, the overall return to scale is still positive. Meaning that the further they go, the lower the average cost. This would be vital in term of market share once the market has little to no option than shift to EV as deadline looms. Yes, there's totally a risk where somehow legacy automakers find their way to "convince" the government to give them more time. But shifting to EV is inevitable. It's not a matter of if, but rather when.
2. This is a big ASSUMPTION, but stay with me for a bit. Given the "hearsay" information that I was given, the fact that Tesla has not altered the amount of orders they are placing with their suppliers, leads me to believe one thing... that another model is coming. Tesla has hinted on Investor Day that there's another "van" vehicle in the line, even though they never talked about it anywhere else. So far, we have always been given information and potential dates for the 25k model. The production methodology and processes have been discussed on Investor Day as well, but not this "van" vehicle. I think this is on purpose.
Tesla has ALWAYS made 2 models out of the same platform with the exception of the Roadster and the Semi. S/X shares one. 3/Y share another, and CT is, IMO, going to share its platform with another vehicle.
And as Tesla irons out the kinks and bumps on CT ramp and build extra production lines, I believe they are going to announce this vehicle in a pure surprise fashion. It is going to be something like "oh... btw, we are announcing this new vehicle now that the ramp is over... and it starts shipping next quarter, orders starts today" kinda thing. People has put too much spotlight on Tesla and I think it and Elon has learned a thing or two about not oversharing unless he has to.