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May I dare to question Troy's projection of 130 Cybertrucks per week? Perhaps that was the number for the first week. Joe Tegtmeyer's Giga Texas flyover pictures make a higher production rate seem more plausible. I'm currently guessing more like 100 +/- 20 per day.


Troys production data is based on DMV VIN registrations and to my knowledge has turned out to be extremely accurate historically... the # was VIN data through Feb 5 so it's not just first week of Jan or something.

He discusses it more a bit here with historical examples of Y and 3 production at specific factories (since VIN tells you that too)




Model Y parts: if I recollect accurately, prior to the Model Y release, Elon said it would have about 70 to 75% shared parts with the Model 3. Some time after release, Elon stated it ended up being around 40% I don't have video links to share evidence of this.

FWIW that's my memory as well.. .the 75% number was a pre-production guess and everyone not-Tesla just kept repeating it after production kicked off-- only when someone did an actual teardown did they find the % much lower-- but people still go back and repeat the 75% figure anyway.
 
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It's a question of TMC forum utility, how the up/down/and other votes are applied.

Is there a way to choose any post and see the list of replying posts ; essentially reformatting with a selected post followed by all the replying posts?

OR - is any of this available in a TMC APP? I view TMC in my Android phone, windows/Chrome, and my Iphone Safari browser; am I the only one not using the APP?

Surely there's no need to reinvent the wheel to fill in the tech gaps that even a Technological neanderthal like myself thinks obvious.
For one, I prefer the format of website on my iPad over that of the app.
 
Do these people get paid to nag constant FUD? What's the pay? Do they score points somehow?
Or just nothing better to do and actually believe their trashy views? (Economist)
Maybe these jobs are not so "Critical" after all.
Um. Two things, and then I'll stop.

First: If you read @Papafox's postings, it's very clear that there are forces inimical to Tesla. @Papafox's usual diatribes are about market makers and hedge funds who do naked shorting for a living.

The interesting bit about that is that, over time, it's been reported over and over again that the shortsellers have lost money. Ridiculous amounts of same. If that's true.. then where is the money coming from? Hold that thought for a bit.

Second: I'm a refugee from the tesla.com forums, which closed down in 2019 or so. And the way it closed down was more than a bit instructive. There were posters who were clearly pump-and-dump short sellers, who would come in, say something utterly horrid about Tesla, then Never Be Seen Again. It got to be that they were almost always recognizable.

And then, there were the trolls. They had an M.O.. Some innocent would show up with a new Tesla and some basic questions. If said innocent was lucky, said questions would be answered by the regulars. But if one of the trolls answered, said troll would answer with correct answers. And engage that innocent and others. And, after a bit, the troll would start spouting falsehoods. One in particular I remember: That person (?) would conflate energy and power at every opportunity; would claim preconditioning would empty out half the battery; and make it seem that the innocent had made a Bad Choice.

Interestingly, the troll would post at, literally, all hours. And at semi-regular intervals during these hours, the writing style would change. And it wasn't just this one troll - there was a gang of them, at least by the poster names, maybe a total of 20 "people".

I'm putting quote marks on that "people" because a number of us became convinced that this was a paid-for-by-somebody outfit, or outfits, whose purpose was to pollute Google Search and the like with bad information about Teslas. At the time, and even now, Teslas get sold by word-of-mouth and people doing research about the cars on-line. Do a search about Tesla reliability? One or more of the trolls' posts would be near the top of the search reports.

It got worse. The trolls started running false accusations against the reliable regulars; one of whom, if memory serves, was accused of sexual innuendo. This got the regular banned by Tesla for a bit, until some back-and-forth got the regular reinstated.

Tesla, clearly, did not want to invest serious money into moderating the forum. They made several attempts at making the forum self-moderating (one could vote a post out of existence, for a bit), which the trolls promptly used to ban posts by regulars. After several attempts by Tesla to clean things up, and actual staff-hours obviously becoming required in order to continue, Tesla decided to pull the plug. I believe the forums are still all there, frozen, but that was that.

So, coming back to this bit about money. One clue was that at least two of the trollish types weren't just posting on the Tesla forums; there was a forum being run by Ford for their upcoming electric Mustang, and post graphics and other convincing material from a particular poster on both Tesla and Ford was showing on both places. Interestingly, the troll would badmouth Tesla on the Tesla forum, pointing out how superior the Ford was, and vice-versa on the Ford forums. And this was that 24-hours-a-day entity.

So, analyses on Oil Companies, world-wide, show that they make, in profits, roughly $3B a day. Um. A bit of spare change to throw some FUD might do something. And then there's traditional auto companies. One might think that individuals-who-are-not-dumb-as-rocks in those companies might realize what a steamroller Tesla was becoming. And would Do Something to, well, slow down the steamroller. It's not just me who've been saying things like this: Sandy Munroe, for one, has pointed this out, too.

So, do we have those kinds of trolls around here? Good question. On the one hand, we've got, thank $DIETY, actual human moderators who don't, typically, take any *Sugar*. I don't know if there's a thread around here where the moderators have competitions on just how far they've booted obvious trolls, but wouldn't be surprised if there was.

But the operative word here is, 'obviously'. Just because the free-ranging tesla.com forums have closed, doesn't mean that the individuals who brought that about have gone away. I would imagine that they're still out there. Sure, Facebook, that's almost traditional. But I'd be highly surprised if we didn't have at least some, well, paid-for trolls wandering around here. If they get obvious, they get booted.

Ha. It's kind of like reading the Screwtape Letters, where a higher-up demon is remonstrating with a less experienced demon about what, and what not, to do. Actually killing somebody isn't exactly good for the Demon side if a bunch of angels show up and take the soul to heaven; the idea is to corrupt the souls, starting off slow and working one's way up.

So, do we have paid-for trolls around? Probably. Is any trollish poster paid-for? Probably not, there are people with negative opinions. But when repetitive negativity and falsehoods from particular posters gets a bit thick, then that's what the Ignore button is for.
 
Um. Two things, and then I'll stop.

First: If you read @Papafox's postings, it's very clear that there are forces inimical to Tesla. @Papafox's usual diatribes are about market makers and hedge funds who do naked shorting for a living.

The interesting bit about that is that, over time, it's been reported over and over again that the shortsellers have lost money. Ridiculous amounts of same. If that's true.. then where is the money coming from? Hold that thought for a bit.

Second: I'm a refugee from the tesla.com forums, which closed down in 2019 or so. And the way it closed down was more than a bit instructive. There were posters who were clearly pump-and-dump short sellers, who would come in, say something utterly horrid about Tesla, then Never Be Seen Again. It got to be that they were almost always recognizable.

And then, there were the trolls. They had an M.O.. Some innocent would show up with a new Tesla and some basic questions. If said innocent was lucky, said questions would be answered by the regulars. But if one of the trolls answered, said troll would answer with correct answers. And engage that innocent and others. And, after a bit, the troll would start spouting falsehoods. One in particular I remember: That person (?) would conflate energy and power at every opportunity; would claim preconditioning would empty out half the battery; and make it seem that the innocent had made a Bad Choice.

Interestingly, the troll would post at, literally, all hours. And at semi-regular intervals during these hours, the writing style would change. And it wasn't just this one troll - there was a gang of them, at least by the poster names, maybe a total of 20 "people".

I'm putting quote marks on that "people" because a number of us became convinced that this was a paid-for-by-somebody outfit, or outfits, whose purpose was to pollute Google Search and the like with bad information about Teslas. At the time, and even now, Teslas get sold by word-of-mouth and people doing research about the cars on-line. Do a search about Tesla reliability? One or more of the trolls' posts would be near the top of the search reports.

It got worse. The trolls started running false accusations against the reliable regulars; one of whom, if memory serves, was accused of sexual innuendo. This got the regular banned by Tesla for a bit, until some back-and-forth got the regular reinstated.

Tesla, clearly, did not want to invest serious money into moderating the forum. They made several attempts at making the forum self-moderating (one could vote a post out of existence, for a bit), which the trolls promptly used to ban posts by regulars. After several attempts by Tesla to clean things up, and actual staff-hours obviously becoming required in order to continue, Tesla decided to pull the plug. I believe the forums are still all there, frozen, but that was that.

So, coming back to this bit about money. One clue was that at least two of the trollish types weren't just posting on the Tesla forums; there was a forum being run by Ford for their upcoming electric Mustang, and post graphics and other convincing material from a particular poster on both Tesla and Ford was showing on both places. Interestingly, the troll would badmouth Tesla on the Tesla forum, pointing out how superior the Ford was, and vice-versa on the Ford forums. And this was that 24-hours-a-day entity.

So, analyses on Oil Companies, world-wide, show that they make, in profits, roughly $3B a day. Um. A bit of spare change to throw some FUD might do something. And then there's traditional auto companies. One might think that individuals-who-are-not-dumb-as-rocks in those companies might realize what a steamroller Tesla was becoming. And would Do Something to, well, slow down the steamroller. It's not just me who've been saying things like this: Sandy Munroe, for one, has pointed this out, too.

So, do we have those kinds of trolls around here? Good question. On the one hand, we've got, thank $DIETY, actual human moderators who don't, typically, take any *Sugar*. I don't know if there's a thread around here where the moderators have competitions on just how far they've booted obvious trolls, but wouldn't be surprised if there was.

But the operative word here is, 'obviously'. Just because the free-ranging tesla.com forums have closed, doesn't mean that the individuals who brought that about have gone away. I would imagine that they're still out there. Sure, Facebook, that's almost traditional. But I'd be highly surprised if we didn't have at least some, well, paid-for trolls wandering around here. If they get obvious, they get booted.

Ha. It's kind of like reading the Screwtape Letters, where a higher-up demon is remonstrating with a less experienced demon about what, and what not, to do. Actually killing somebody isn't exactly good for the Demon side if a bunch of angels show up and take the soul to heaven; the idea is to corrupt the souls, starting off slow and working one's way up.

So, do we have paid-for trolls around? Probably. Is any trollish poster paid-for? Probably not, there are people with negative opinions. But when repetitive negativity and falsehoods from particular posters gets a bit thick, then that's what the Ignore button is for.
I abandoned the Tesla forum about a week after I discovered TMC... I don't know how you stood it that long.
 
Lions never attack vehicles. A solitary pedestrian is another issue.
And looking at that video.. And everybody in there is laughing and giggling. Maybe they don't attack vehicles but, well, lions are not that dumb. And, even with your comment about 'solitary pedestrian', any beast that thinks that we're Lunch and is doing all that is pretty much playing with its food. I mean, humans feed squirrels; and we eat them, too.

And especially kids in that vehicle. Lions like going after defenseless young. What were the parents thinking?
 
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Terrible car for a game drive. I’ve done plenty and Lions are the only ones that give you a very uneasy feeling. Taking a young child is normally a no go when I’ve been on safari drives even in a large open vehicle.
Never been near a hippo then? That's a true code brown moment. Or a bull elephant who maybe wonders whether your GoPro stick might be a gun.
 
That is typical Elon Musk BS. He just cant help himself. No matter how impressive the reality is, he will pile on the crap.
Can anyone come up with anything that Elon said turned out to be just plain true. Any date that was real, any stat that was real? Really anything?

By the way my family finished getting out of TSLA today. In total a little under $4M. Feels good to not feel any need to defend Elon any longer. Maybe someday the Broke Mind Virus will go away and we invest again. Dont get me wrong, will still defend Tesla vehicles. They are the best on the road, but more importantly will still defend EVs and push back against EV and Green Energy FUD.
 
Can anyone come up with anything that Elon said turned out to be just plain true. Any date that was real, any stat that was real? Really anything?


One of the more famous ones here:

Elon in 2014 saying he's confident Tesla can do 500k cars in 2020.


At the time it was VERY roundly mocked by just about everyone from Morgan Stanley (where IIRC Adam Jonas said maybe 300k if the Model 3 is wildly successful) to Toilet Boy who said it was ABSURDLY UNLILKELY they'd even come close to 200k.

And then somewhat famously they did (within hundreds of cars anyway) 500k in 2020.
 
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I abandoned the Tesla forum about a week after I discovered TMC... I don't know how you stood it that long.
I dunno. I enjoyed helping newbies; being technically inclined in EE, that helped. And, once the trolls became obvious, was fighting the good fight for as long as it lasted.

You're right, though: It's much more relaxing around here.
 
Can anyone come up with anything that Elon said turned out to be just plain true. Any date that was real, any stat that was real? Really anything?

By the way my family finished getting out of TSLA today. In total a little under $4M. Feels good to not feel any need to defend Elon any longer. Maybe someday the Broke Mind Virus will go away and we invest again. Dont get me wrong, will still defend Tesla vehicles. They are the best on the road, but more importantly will still defend EVs and push back against EV and Green Energy FUD.
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Can anyone come up with anything that Elon said turned out to be just plain true. Any date that was real, any stat that was real? Really anything?

By the way my family finished getting out of TSLA today. In total a little under $4M. Feels good to not feel any need to defend Elon any longer. Maybe someday the Broke Mind Virus will go away and we invest again. Dont get me wrong, will still defend Tesla vehicles. They are the best on the road, but more importantly will still defend EVs and push back against EV and Green Energy FUD.
You're supposed to give them the advice to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Now you sound like Tesla Economist :oops::rolleyes:
 
One of the more famous ones here:

Elon in 2014 saying he's confident Tesla can do 500k cars in 2020.


At the time it was VERY roundly mocked by just about everyone from Morgan Stanley (where IIRC Adam Jonas said maybe 300k if the Model 3 is wildly successful) to Toilet Boy who said it was ABSURDLY UNLILKELY they'd even come close to 200k.

And then somewhat famously they did (within hundreds of cars anyway) 500k in 2020.
Says a lot that have to go back to 2014, doesnt it.
 
You're supposed to give them the advice to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Now you sound like Tesla Economist :oops::rolleyes:
2 years ago didnt think Elon would go nuts. I like many other feared missing out. Still love Tesla, just dont trust the leader. No one can give me any reason why over next 2 years expect much of a run up. This isnt like when Model 3 and Model Y came out and people doubted ramp. Even Tesla in the last report wouldnt give guidance. So we will take those funds and put into assets that are performing well. We feel a combination of say MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, etc. will outperform TSLA. We can always come back if we see some sort of change. After all mentioned before our holdings in IRA's so we have no tax consequences for getting out and later returning.
 
Troys production data is based on DMV VIN registrations and to my knowledge has turned out to be extremely accurate historically... the # was VIN data through Feb 5 so it's not just first week of Jan or something.

He discusses it more a bit here with historical examples of Y and 3 production at specific factories (since VIN tells you that too)






FWIW that's my memory as well.. .the 75% number was a pre-production guess and everyone not-Tesla just kept repeating it after production kicked off-- only when someone did an actual teardown did they find the % much lower-- but people still go back and repeat the 75% figure anyway.
Yeah, how do you even count that percentage? Y underbody is cast from 2-3 parts, model 3 welded from dozens, so are they 1 part or lots of parts?

the whole metric is silly
 
If we put this together with today's layoff rumors, maybe CT is holding it's own just fine as the limited Founder's Series (margin-wise). So they're milking it as Tesla looks broadly into all costs. Just a theory ;)

Maybe not much CT savings at only 130/wk, but at least it's likely positive at $100-120K. I know of another EV truck who is not so positive, and I think those aren't doing so well.
Data point. I finalized my order over 3 weeks ago and not a peep. Course, delivering to buttocksfudgenowhere may not be on the top of their list.
 
I expect to see a tightening of the belt in 2024 for SG&A to drive savings . . . not the toilet paper rationing program but some effort.
Would not be surprised to see an Elon internal email stating "we're spending to much money on x,y,z".

As I mentioned least week, I expected Tesla to tighten the belt on spending. The news below may get spun negatively but this is good news if true.
Companies need to prune occasionally as there is often waste that creeps into the system.