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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Ha. Journalists have, in their inimitable fashion, propagated the myth that extremely complicated problems, in particular if the problem is a BEV, and even more so if the problem is a robotaxi, is easily solved by pick-your-random tech/engineering company. Witness all the Tesla killers that have, so far, failed to materialize.
Apple is pretty much a computer company, kind of like Dell, say. But because Apple puts shiny, colorful, glass and plastic bits of computing technology in people’s pockets, non-techie types get the impression Apple can do anything.
I dunno: could Apple build locomotives? Or diesel engines? Neither of those are in Apple’s wheelhouse. And, as it turns out, neither are BEVs.
I mean, companies do change directions over time. Nokia started up making galoshes, for crying out loud. But it’s not exactly normal behavior for a company to change its fields of endeavor.
The surprising thing about the NYT article is that, somehow, unusually for journalists, it was admitted that making a BEV is hard.
What? It means that Musk was right about something? Naw-they won’t say that, of course.
Number 34 is a chilling. I don’t get how this remains such a difficult problem…flashing lights, signs and moving stuff.
if I understand it correctly, he didn't even attempt it.
I spent ~10 seconds looking at the article:
according to the xxx employees familiar with...
...declined to comment
...according to two people familiar with the talks
Sounds familiar? Gell-Mann Amnesia, anyone?
Free advertising? Ford supercharger capability rollout starts today. See Out of Spec podcast
Those are accurate nominal price comparisons. However,mit remains to be seen how financing arrangements will be made. In this category financing is fundamental, as it is in most places but with very high interest rates, high enough to quote monthly, not yearly rates, it could be that the ‘Dolphin Mini’ Seagull will be cheaper. Still the cheapest ICE are nearly all old cars with four/five passenger capacity. That said, things like the original Smart sold fairly decently in large cities, mostly among affluent people, to be sure.
My personal view is that Tesla Model Y would be a huge hit, when Hyundai Santa Fe, Toyota RAV4, BMW X1, Volvo XC 40 Recharge etc have all led sales in their categories in many countries. The XC40 Recharge led BEV sales for several years in several countries, but new competitors, primarily Model Y have redefined that market globally where sold.
We all are understandably counting on ‘Model 2’, but should be also understanding Model Y and especially Tesla Energy. FWIW, that is true for much of the world, not just new markets.
These factors are making me far more bullish than I have been for a while. OTOH, I am very much a long range investor, so even three years of stagnant or declining share price will not deter me so long as the fundamentals continue to improve, and they are doing that.
When this quarter’s financials arrive I’m confident Free Cash Flow will continue to rise. That will assure the capacity to simultaneously finance Optimus, Monterrey, new Stationary production, cell production, factory updating, and more. Just consider, all of that from positive cash flow!
Some think that dividends and/or share repurchase are the solution. Some think advertising is the way to blow that cash flow. I think it should support more growth in business as well as efficiency improvements.
As an aside yesterday as I was picking up a new Model Y in Miami. There were five others picking up new Teslae are the same time. All of them were first time Tesla buyers, referred by other Tesla owners. Anecdotal, to be sure, but still reaffirming my conviction that as the fleet grows and experience spreads, new adoption by ‘word of mouth’ will continue to be effective and efficient, coupled with highly targeted direct response promotions. Clearly there is much more growth to achieve in established markets.
Just to clarify one tiny point. Nokia started as a paper mill. The name was the name of the nearby town to which they expanded soon after establishment.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Looks like Ford is going live on the supercharger network.
I had no idea the V3 stations needed to be retrofitted for CCS? The cars have had it for a few years so I assumed V3 stations had CCS communications?
I had no idea the V3 stations needed to be retrofitted for CCS? The cars have had it for a few years so I assumed V3 stations had CCS communications?
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Seems that way. I look forward to one of the V 12 testers commenting since I would welcome being mistaken.
Bingo, and it's broad with many stocks "popping".
The Fed's got inflation under control, yay! /s
Stock market today: US futures turn up after Fed's preferred inflation gauge continues cooling
Investors are on edge for the PCE reading, seen as key to assessing how quickly the Fed will start cutting rates.
And more accurate metering is also important. Hopefully the changes included Plug & Charge support.
Those are both desirable for the Wall Connector as well, so that there's universal Plug & Charge for MDU home and destination charging.
Yep and I'll try to say why I think so as well.
In 2014, I lost an engineer from the AP team to project Titan, who left with the understanding they'd be building the supposed "Tesla killer". Huge bummer, but I was happy for them and that we'd have more EVs. Fast forward 1/2 a year and two more went over, this time were more HW and firmware focused. Fast forward another 1/2 year and the total was 6 or 7. Then I heard one went to NIO from Apple and another went to Zoox and that was the first time I'd heard that Titan was essentially cancelled. Then in 2018 I hear a few folks are going back to Apple to work on autonomous SW and a HW platform, meanwhile I'm at Google on TPUs thinking they might reach out to help with their model training. A year later I hear they are trying TPUs, but no one ever reached out. A year later and I hear they have stopped and scrapped their HW and a few folks again depart and the supposed project was stopped. And that is the last thing I heard was in roughly late 2019.
With my connections into the industry, I highly doubt there was actually anything to cancel in 2024, but more likely a bunch of folks re-org'd into an AI focus. Which I have no direct or indirect knowledge of
Krugerrand
Meow
Making a BEV isn’t hard. Lots of companies have shown they can make one. Even GM made one two and a half decades ago.
The consist hard part has been making the BEV profitably. That’s Lucid’s, Rivian’s, Ford’s, Faraday’s, Fisker’s, Lordstown’s, Fiat’s, GM’s etc… problem.
Yes, there’s a few other hard parts, but in the end it boils down to the bottom line of manufacturing costs and by extension how much people will pay for the specific end product.
Ie., A range limited BEV still has a purpose for a lot of people, but not for $75,000. The price at which that BEV should be selling puts its manufacturer in bankruptcy, while at $75,000 it simply bleeds the company dry a bit slower.
Think about what Tesla has needed to do to lower the purchase price of their cars, which arguably are the very best EVs available in the world. The many ways in which they have had to innovate to reduce costs and increase efficiencies. Such as making single cast front ends and rear ends of cars, eliminating hundreds of individual parts. Reducing wiring harnesses from miles to meters.
BEVs are easy. Making a profit making BEVs is hard.
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