Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

It was boring... how I like it... Bullish.

I keep reading how people here on TMC think the time horizon is still years out. Are we expecting Steve McQueen driving skills here?

I fully expect a pilot service (or a driverless or supervisor-less rollout) happens this year at minimum. Folks can't stomach my max est. (Bolt can, but he's about the only one here. I attribute the pessimism to sour grapes and Charlie Brown effect.)

I'm not sure if Tesla will be ready this year because there is still a lot of training to do on parking lots and how to pick up and drop off passengers. Also, I'm not sure if Tesla is already working on the basic, boring, rideshare stuff like the hailing app for the passengers and working out the basic logistics of running a rideshare fleet.

I think the way Tesla will roll it out is just like Waymo did. They will start with one city and even have safety drivers at first. When they are confident that the system is ready, they will take the safety drivers out of the car. But even then, Tesla will still have standby drivers to go and get a car if it gets stuck or gets in an accident.

At that point, Tesla's service will have caught up with Waymo. The difference is, Tesla will do so at a fraction of the cost and a very fast time to market.

As Tesla's system continues to rapidly improve, Tesla will expand and surpass Waymo by a country mile. The service will become wildly profitable and ordinary Tesla owners will be invited to join in on the gold rush.

Getting started this year might be a little aggressive, but it's not impossible. I'm thinking 2025 or 2026 is pretty likely though.

 

[MP3Mike]

Also, I'm not sure if Tesla is already working on the basic, boring, rideshare stuff like the hailing app for the passengers and working out the basic logistics of running a rideshare fleet.

I think there were rumors a long time ago that Tesla has already worked on the app portion, and while it isn't Tesla, I imagine that the Boring Co experience in running the Vegas Loop will get shared with Tesla and covers some of the basic rideshare logistics.

 

[EQC_]

A great use for AI would be to auto-fire any editor that approves deeply misleading headlines.

Headline "Tesla model 2 could arrive no earlier than 2027"


Actual story content: "Tesla model 2 is likely to arrive in 2025, but 7-figure-volume-production probably won't be before 2027 as they ramp"

...

Ha ha...misleading and negative spin in the headline indeed. Based on the content you quoted, the big take away is "After a year or two of ramping, Tesla's Model 2 might have the highest annual sales of any car ever, and keep growing from there."

 

[Usain]

The reason we don't yet have V12 is unclear at this stage, and an anomaly still. No assumptions should be made regarding if it's ready or not, and there is plenty of evidence V12 is far superior to anything we have ever seen. This begs the question why don't we have it yet??? The issue is society IMO and managing the FUD. >10x safer than humans makes sense from that standpoint because... well... humans think they're perfect.

Are you also saying that it's OK if a teen is posting selfies while driving is OK? No right? Then it's not about safety, it's about perceived safety and managing the transition. FYI, it's about to occur IMO, and it's gonna hurt at first. New movies with Tesla's hitting people for sure. Stock dives on first accidents etc... but I've been there before with Tesla.

I think that in some ways, V12 might be more dangerous than V11. It's so new and different that we don't know where the weaknesses are.

We may be reaching a point that used to be talked about a lot. FSD V12 is so butter-smooth that the driver can get a false sense of security. With V11, you know when you are approaching a tough situation and you are ready to take over. But with V12, you might not know when to be cautious. It can still do the worst thing at the wrong time, but we don't have a good sense of when that might be.

So I'm not surprised that Tesla is being extra-slow with the V12 rollout. They really, really, really need to prove it is safer than a human before giving it out to everyone.

 

[keydiver]

So BYD outselling Tesla globally means?

Yes, for ONE QUARTER (4Q23) BYD managed to push out as many cars it could to its dealer lots to be able to claim it outsold Tesla. The media has beat this dead horse long enough, why am I having to hear it here?

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

This is ev’s only?

Nope and Q1 sales for BYD have gone off a cliff

 

[Musskiah]

Megachargers at Lathrop Megafactory.

Tesla Megachargers hint at active use of Semi at Lathrop Megafactory

A recent drone flyover at Tesla’s Lathrop Megafactory has shown something quite interesting that’s been hiding in plain sight.

www.google.com

 

[Musskiah]

Peter Blades left Tesla to design for Skyryse.
He was responsible for the minimalist design interiors of the 3,Y, Semi Concept, and Roadster. It's safe to say his designs revolutionalized the automotive industry.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.teslarati.com/tesla-designer-model-3-roadster-semi-skyryse-peter-blades/amp/

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I find the idea we go from a version that last rev hit multiple parked cars while human supervised, and is still not trusted enough driver supervised to be available to anyone but employees and a tiny tiny tiny # of folks like Omar, to a commercially deployed driverless pilot, in what would amount to 8 months or less, to be.... an unrealistic expectation.

I am bullish on this tentative roll out as it feels like they are doing the final tweaks before they release something profound.

 

[EQC_]

The reason we don't yet have V12 is unclear at this stage, and an anomaly still. No assumptions should be made regarding if it's ready or not, and there is plenty of evidence V12 is far superior to anything we have ever seen. This begs the question why don't we have it yet??? The issue is society IMO and managing the FUD. >10x safer than humans makes sense from that standpoint because... well... humans think they're perfect.

Are you also saying that it's OK if a teen is posting selfies while driving is OK? No right? Then it's not about safety, it's about perceived safety and managing the transition. FYI, it's about to occur IMO, and it's gonna hurt at first. New movies with Tesla's hitting people for sure. Stock dives on first accidents etc... but I've been there before with Tesla.

I always wonder how Tesla selects the first roll-outs of a new version to "regular" people. I got 12.2.1 fairly early...and I'm absolutely a nobody, with no social media presence and a December 2021 Model Y. Maybe I got picked at random, maybe it has to do with how I drive, or where I drive, or the hardware config of my car, or maybe they like how I send feedback when I disengage....who knows?

I am continually impressed with 12.2.1.
Nifty to me is that it is avoiding many potential road hazards. Yesterday, I spotted some road debris up ahead on a 1-lane-each-way 55mph road, and I and eagerly waited to see how it did. It slowed down, safely moved into the oncoming traffic lane, passed the debris, and returned to the proper lane.
I'm also glad to see it ignoring incorectly high speed limits in the map data -- there's a section of 35 mph road where the map data says the speed limit is 55. With v. 12.2.1, FSD maintains the appropriate speed without me needing to adjust settings.
My biggest "complaint" is some sections with incorrectly low speed limits in the map data...so the car sets to a 25mph speed on an isolated section of 55 mph road. I have to go to the onerous effort (sarcasm!) of adjusting the speed via the scroll wheel.
More mild complaint: FSD 12.2.1 seems to want to maintain a bit slower speed than I prefer. Older FSD would happily drive at my max set speed in most conditions...while version 12 seems to default to a few mph slower. I tried the new option for automatic speed setting/adjustment...but that felt like it left me with even less control, and in those above-mentioned wrong 25mph zones, I would have had to (gasp) push the accelerator myself.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Peter Blades left Tesla to design for Skyryse.
He was responsible for the minimalist design interiors of the 3,Y, Semi Concept, and Roadster. It's safe to say his designs revolutionalized the automotive industry.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.teslarati.com/tesla-designer-model-3-roadster-semi-skyryse-peter-blades/amp/

Did they mistype the name Franz?

My Tesla knowledge currently feels inadequate as I've never heard of Peter Blades before.

 

[Southpasfan]

I think that in some ways, V12 might be more dangerous than V11. It's so new and different that we don't know where the weaknesses are.

We may be reaching a point that used to be talked about a lot. FSD V12 is so butter-smooth that the driver can get a false sense of security. With V11, you know when you are approaching a tough situation and you are ready to take over. But with V12, you might not know when to be cautious. It can still do the worst thing at the wrong time, but we don't have a good sense of when that might be.

So I'm not surprised that Tesla is being extra-slow with the V12 rollout. They really, really, really need to prove it is safer than a human before giving it out to everyone.

For whatever reason, my anecdote is that I still don't have it yet, and I got all the other beta versions within weeks of their release. So something different here. My friend has it and said it was the biggest increase in quality of any of the versions he has seen. He does drive quite a bit with FSD though. My car not so much due to general distance and the fact my wife does not put it on much when she drives.

 

[Musskiah]

The Semi Factory ($10B+ annual revenue when ramped) and Shanghai MegaPACKtory ($10-15 annual revenue when ramped depending on Megapack price fluctuation) are both reportedly to begin production in Q4 2024.

The deferred revenues from Lathrop MegaPACKtory are a staggerin $4B as of Q4 2023 and growing!! SOURCE:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751963928542781758

In the 10-Q it was reported that $1.05B of this deferrend Energy revenue will be realized in the next 12 months. In 2025 this number will become very meaningful.

The production of Model 2 on all 3 continents will likely commence in 2025, probably not simultaneously, but in succession. Elon today confirmed Berlin expansion (below) is underway. Shanghai Phase 3 expansion began in 2021, was put on hold until it was revitalized in Q4 2023. Once the kinks are worked out on the Austin Model 2 line, the others will be soon to follow.

I agree 2024 won't be much to write home about, but even without FSD and some of the other so-called "options" on the stock (major catalysts), these aforementioned catalysts for 2025 are imminent. They will affect the stock price materially in that year, if not late 2024

 

[Quesder]

new day low again, $170.4. We will see $169.xx today.

 

[unk45]

Do we know BYD margins on BEV only? No.

Not likely anyway, or we'd be comparing them all day long. But at $15K, no way they have margins to speak of. The debate is more about whether BYD is being subsidized, which could be just a cheap shot stemming from denial, but show me the numbers! Hybrids are easy on battery costs so expecting way better margins there. That's more about Japan's issue at the moment.

I really don't understand why people make such assumptions. BYD makes busses that sell well with excellent reputation. Their stationary batteresis sell well for large utility-level deployment as well as residential, and their solar panels are competitive too. The larger vehicles are getting positive attention, although Top Gear is less than totally convinced with the Seal:
https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/byd/seal

With so many models the 1/2 price cheap car thesis is becoming pretty obviously out of date.
Further, most people familiar with Chinese accounting and cost structures are not convinced that the narrow margins are quite what most westerners assume they are.

 

[Musskiah]

Did they mistype the name Franz?

My Tesla knowledge currently feels inadequate as I've never heard of Peter Blades before.

Franz is Cheif designer for the entire vehicle, Peter was Lead Interior Designer on the vehicles mentioned. You really ought to pay attention

 

[Tony73]

I'm not sure if Tesla will be ready this year because there is still a lot of training to do on parking lots and how to pick up and drop off passengers. Also, I'm not sure if Tesla is already working on the basic, boring, rideshare stuff like the hailing app for the passengers and working out the basic logistics of running a rideshare fleet.

I think the way Tesla will roll it out is just like Waymo did. They will start with one city and even have safety drivers at first. When they are confident that the system is ready, they will take the safety drivers out of the car. But even then, Tesla will still have standby drivers to go and get a car if it gets stuck or gets in an accident.

At that point, Tesla's service will have caught up with Waymo. The difference is, Tesla will do so at a fraction of the cost and a very fast time to market.

As Tesla's system continues to rapidly improve, Tesla will expand and surpass Waymo by a country mile. The service will become wildly profitable and ordinary Tesla owners will be invited to join in on the gold rush.

Getting started this year might be a little aggressive, but it's not impossible. I'm thinking 2025 or 2026 is pretty likely though.

While they are gearing to up to do all that, they need to improve the FSD take rate.
Unlike robotaxi, FSD is zero cost and instantly accretive at close to 100 margin.
No safety drivers, app or logistics needed.
Serious improvement in FSD take rate instantly re-rates Tesla as a legitimate AI company.
Robotaxi rollout will be slow and expensive. It’s probably a net cost for the first 2 to 5 years.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hello 170. I might go again at 169, but I specifically recall drawing lines where 171 could mark a change in direction - was many weeks ago.

Spoiler: Not sure what happened at 200... try again?

 

[jerry33]

Huh? Evercore is an independent investment banking firm (the worlds largest such) -In fact they're the one that advised Tesla on the Solar City buyout. How does their income "depend on legacy auto"?

Or is this just another "Anybody who says anything uberbulls dislike must be a legacy auto shill" thing?

No, it's most analysts ultimately rely on advertising in the journals they publish in. thanks for the correction.

 

[uscbucsfan]

While they are gearing to up to do all that, they need to improve the FSD take rate.
Unlike robotaxi, FSD is zero cost and instantly accretive at close to 100 margin.
No safety drivers, app or logistics needed.
Serious improvement in FSD take rate instantly re-rates Tesla as a legitimate AI company.
Robotaxi rollout will be slow and expensive. It’s probably a net cost for the first 2 to 5 years.

They only way to do that today is to lower the cost.

Moving forward, if it's lauded and great, it can sell at a higher cost, but over $10k is never going to be attached to an extremely high % of vehicles.

IMO, the best move for Tesla would be to phase out the purchase price and have a more reasonable subscription price, like $100 per month with options like "trip" or "weekend" purchases.