It was boring... how I like it... Bullish.
I keep reading how people here on TMC think the time horizon is still years out. Are we expecting Steve McQueen driving skills here?
I fully expect a pilot service (or a driverless or supervisor-less rollout) happens this year at minimum. Folks can't stomach my max est. (Bolt can, but he's about the only one here. I attribute the pessimism to sour grapes and Charlie Brown effect.)
I'm not sure if Tesla will be ready this year because there is still a lot of training to do on parking lots and how to pick up and drop off passengers. Also, I'm not sure if Tesla is already working on the basic, boring, rideshare stuff like the hailing app for the passengers and working out the basic logistics of running a rideshare fleet.
I think the way Tesla will roll it out is just like Waymo did. They will start with one city and even have safety drivers at first. When they are confident that the system is ready, they will take the safety drivers out of the car. But even then, Tesla will still have standby drivers to go and get a car if it gets stuck or gets in an accident.
At that point, Tesla's service will have caught up with Waymo. The difference is, Tesla will do so at a fraction of the cost and a very fast time to market.
As Tesla's system continues to rapidly improve, Tesla will expand and surpass Waymo by a country mile. The service will become wildly profitable and ordinary Tesla owners will be invited to join in on the gold rush.
Getting started this year might be a little aggressive, but it's not impossible. I'm thinking 2025 or 2026 is pretty likely though.