What happened was they met and said "Hey Tesla, the line in the sand is 4xx,xxxx, are you confident it will be over that?"
Tesla IR responded with "It could be over or under"
And they went on their way.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tesla IR responded with "It could be over or under"
And they went on their way.
Tesla Carriers Map Per the spreadsheet link at the bottom( Tesla Carriers) , just 14 ships this quarter vs like 40 in previous ..
Do note: I am not following shipping as I used to in the past and just checked this today morning due to all the noise about bad Q1 numbers. So not sure if this is fully up to date etc.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Just venting my feelings a bit....This latest downturn is frustrating. I had deployed an irresponsible amount of cash in 2022, much of which was ill timed and remains red. I've continued to buy in 2023, and now 2024, but at reduced magnitude. I've finally recovered my cash position and luckily didn't suffer from my indiscretion.
Now I'm watching my sidelined cash earn genuine interest that is surprisingly significant (I know- short term thinking). I want to deploy more cash into TSLA (admittedly I picked up some more last week, which is already red
), but the last 2 years with TSLA have been so bad, combined with the likelihood of sideways trading for a while, it's harder than ever for me to buy more!
Buying TSLA was so much easier and more fun when it was rewarded with appreciation fairly soon after purchase. This current mode is much much harder...trading real returns for red stock that promises to do better... Maybe if it drops much lower I won't be able to control myself
Now I'm watching my sidelined cash earn genuine interest that is surprisingly significant (I know- short term thinking). I want to deploy more cash into TSLA (admittedly I picked up some more last week, which is already red
), but the last 2 years with TSLA have been so bad, combined with the likelihood of sideways trading for a while, it's harder than ever for me to buy more!Buying TSLA was so much easier and more fun when it was rewarded with appreciation fairly soon after purchase. This current mode is much much harder...trading real returns for red stock that promises to do better... Maybe if it drops much lower I won't be able to control myself
"Tesla's stock plunge could turn around quickly if it gets a 'real CEO,' investor Ross Gerber says"
(the article adds nuance to this quote but it's still FUD and trashing Elon. No, I will not link)
This long-term investor says Ross needs to go be fruitful and multiply with himself...
(the article adds nuance to this quote but it's still FUD and trashing Elon. No, I will not link)
This long-term investor says Ross needs to go be fruitful and multiply with himself...
Off topic pointer, about the subject of Pi Day, today as well marking the founding of SpaceX.
I was going to post my somewhat geeky missive about the conjunction of Tesla/Musk's "March of Nines"
for FSD, physicist Richard Feynman, and the number pi, illustrated by use of a single line of Unix code on this
forum. But then, due to the sensitivity of off-topic posts here, I thought better of it. Anyway, it's post #89
over at TMC forum:
I was going to post my somewhat geeky missive about the conjunction of Tesla/Musk's "March of Nines"
for FSD, physicist Richard Feynman, and the number pi, illustrated by use of a single line of Unix code on this
forum. But then, due to the sensitivity of off-topic posts here, I thought better of it. Anyway, it's post #89
over at TMC forum:
SpaceX: subthread "SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion"
I am sure many echo your feelings. Stay strong and it will turn eventually, there is too much in the works and future for it to be this cheap. Eventually, WS and the short thinkers will come around to see the money printer $TSLA is and we will all be rewarded handsomely.Just venting my feelings a bit....This latest downturn is frustrating. I had deployed an irresponsible amount of cash in 2022, much of which was ill timed and remains red. I've continued to buy in 2023, and now 2024, but at reduced magnitude. I've finally recovered my cash position and luckily didn't suffer from my indiscretion.
Now I'm watching my sidelined cash earn genuine interest that is surprisingly significant (I know- short term thinking). I want to deploy more cash into TSLA (admittedly I picked up some more last week, which is already red
Buying TSLA was so much easier and more fun when it was rewarded with appreciation fairly soon after purchase. This current mode is much much harder...trading real returns for red stock that promises to do better... Maybe if it drops much lower I won't be able to control myself
NFA, JMHO of course.
This sounds like the unfortunate but most likely cause. The stock has been cascading ever since. Not sure what else it could be.
Very surprised at how quickly the broader narrative around EVs has happened… it’s not like anyone enjoys going to the gas station, having maintenance and poor acceleration…. Right?
That chart shows some bad news. We are ahead of 2023Q1, but that quarter actually finished very strong, even ahead of 2023Q4. The reason appears to be because Tesla has flattened the end of quarter wave.
With the Berlin shutdown and the flattened wave, it looks like Euro sales could be the lowest since 2022.
Am I disappointed that I'm down to only 774% gain?
Not really, were I wanting to sell now i suppose I'd wish for a higher price, but I really don't mind paying less tax on sale either.
Considering all the gratuitous attacks I will not be surprised were prices to drop more.
Those of us who've remained steady HODL in TSLA for a decade or more are all at least that high. Patience!
Not really, were I wanting to sell now i suppose I'd wish for a higher price, but I really don't mind paying less tax on sale either.
Considering all the gratuitous attacks I will not be surprised were prices to drop more.
The residents of Indian Creek Island, essentially all of them, would disagree with that assertion. West Palm Beach could be close. OtOH, those are not counties either. Factually my 774% si my today accumulated gains on TSLA. None of my real property gains, attractive as some have been, came quite to that level.
Those of us who've remained steady HODL in TSLA for a decade or more are all at least that high. Patience!
From the article, "The paper, yet to be peer-reviewed...." FUD avalanche lately against Musk has picked up pace. The soon to be dead industries are at stage 2 of the grief process, Anger.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yeah, charts on this were posted a week or two ago.... Europe used to be like 65ish percent of deliveries were in Month 3 of each quarter.... but since mid-2023 and the wave flattening that hasn't been true-- and they're more like only 35ish percent of deliveries come in Month 3... which unless they suddenly went back to FULL WAVE for no reason and without anyone noticing, Month 3 Q1 2024 is going to be quite a bit lower than Month 3 Q1 2023 (when the wave was still happening) and overall Q1 will be lower YoY as well in Europe.
Data also seems to show some significant issue with ramping Highland out of Fremont for some reason which isn't great for Q1 US numbers either.... between that and how bad/slow the S/X refresh went time-wise I'm not sure what's going on over there... Highland switchover in China seemed butter smooth.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Model Y price has gone up $500 this quarter, and obviously avg selling price for Model 3 is higher too.
I don’t really see the disaster some are expecting.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Define disaster?
Would you consider Q1 2024 deliveries within 1-2% of Q1 2023 deliveries a disaster? Because that's what the current data is tracking toward as of a few days ago.
I think "disaster" would be overstating the case quite a bit-- but it's certainly not good- esp. for the folks who still want to believe >2M total deliveries for the year.
You're right. I realized after I clicked post. But Walton County has some of the highest prices ($2k per sq ft +) in Florida, and I believe it's top 1 or 2 county for Bed Tax collections (too lazy to look up)
This is ridiculous. So they don't want to hold their puts over night automatically means it's nefarious?
I like how you mention the delta-hedging that occurs when they buy the puts, but you fail to mention that delta-hedging happens in the opposite direction when they buy-to-close the puts.
Obviously, someone shorting the stock causes selling pressure. If there was someone ready to swoop in and buy those shares at those prices, it wouldn't move so much.
But that didn't happen because not many investors want to buy at this price given the likely downturn in earnings and the loss of the "growth" in a growth stock.
BTW, did you report Musk to the SEC when he callously dumped shares onto the market in December 2022?
Selling my calls at $200 was a great decision. Stock is getting close to my $150 target though sentiment is turning worse than I expected. Apparently this meeting with the Tesla IR was a disaster.
The disaster is that Q1 deliveries are going to be flat YoY and the ASP is going to be lower than a year ago. Even with COGs reductions, the results is going to be YoY earnings decline, yet again.
The exact opposite of what you would expect for a company valued with a huge growth multiple.
If you assign a totally possible PE ratio of 30 to TSLA, the share price would be $100.
jschwefel
Tesla fan/TSLA, Model Y and Cybertruck owner.
Thanks for the info on deliveries. IDK, but it seems Tesla would cut prices if demand fell as much as some are thinking (~420k). As noted, Model Y prices have been fairly stable. I bought a Model Y in Q3 ‘23 (my fourth Tesla) and today’s prices are similar or perhaps a little higher than what I paid. Furthermore, inventory levels seem to be normal or even a little less than normal. No science here, just looking at zip codes.
Tesla took a lot of heat for dropping prices, but I don’t think they’ve changed. They are still profitable and cash flow positive, so they’d probably lower prices even more if sales weren’t keeping with production.
I guess we’ll know in about two weeks.
Cheers!
Tesla took a lot of heat for dropping prices, but I don’t think they’ve changed. They are still profitable and cash flow positive, so they’d probably lower prices even more if sales weren’t keeping with production.
I guess we’ll know in about two weeks.
Cheers!
cliff harris
Member
Something worth considering: I heard the everyday astronaut comment today that the cargo capacity of the orbital starship that launched today was larger than the international space station.
Something that took multiple superpowers decades to collaborate on, to get into space, is no larger than a single launch from a REUSABLE and production-line style built spacex rocket.
Spacex is achieving what entire governments of global superpowers could not, and its planning 6 launches this year...
Elon thinks big. Real big. I bet he finds debate as to whether the QoQ growth from Q4 to Q1 is good enough or not to be comical. Tesla is not positioning itself for 'good quarterly results', but for good decade-ahead results. With the cash pile they have, they have zero need to care what wall st thinks. They are the only car company on earth that can look at 2034, and back project what they need to do now to achieve insane results then.
Cybertruck / FSD / Optimus could all be phenomenal when they are fully ramped. And this is just the stuff we know about. Be patient
.
Something that took multiple superpowers decades to collaborate on, to get into space, is no larger than a single launch from a REUSABLE and production-line style built spacex rocket.
Spacex is achieving what entire governments of global superpowers could not, and its planning 6 launches this year...
Elon thinks big. Real big. I bet he finds debate as to whether the QoQ growth from Q4 to Q1 is good enough or not to be comical. Tesla is not positioning itself for 'good quarterly results', but for good decade-ahead results. With the cash pile they have, they have zero need to care what wall st thinks. They are the only car company on earth that can look at 2034, and back project what they need to do now to achieve insane results then.
Cybertruck / FSD / Optimus could all be phenomenal when they are fully ramped. And this is just the stuff we know about. Be patient
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