Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

Anyone who can say what this means for the ramp?

Obviously good of course otherwise they wouldn’t have posted, but how does this number ‘fit’ in the ramp.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770421592633360766

~ 6 GWh/year run rate, if that is from one line, it's a quarter of it's capacity, first phase is 100 GWh/year and second 200 GWh/year

Still a long way to ramp even close to those numbers but if Line 1 is smooth sailing with most challenges resolved, wouldn't be far off to 4x that by turning on the other 3 lines with learnings from 1

Another important point is that they might not be trying to ramp the lines, storing huge amount of cells is not feasible, and Tesla right now has no way to absorb 200 GWh worth of cells, hell, maybe even one line of 4680 is too much

250k/year Cybertrucks + 250k/year Model Ys requires 50 GWh/year, around that for 50k/year Semis, so the might be comissioning but not ramping fully until Semi + Cybertruck + 4680 Model Y is at those nameplate numbers

 

[Unpilot]

Anyone check on @Artful Dodger lately?

 

[EverettRuess]

This is a huge issue. Unless you live in a major metro area, you have to really want a Tesla to deal with the distance from Service/Sales. Every damn small town in America has a Ford, GM and Toyota dealership. Living in the FL panhandle it's 2 hours west, or 5 hours east to the nearest sales/service center. Rivian won't even let me order a truck though.

For me its 300 miles to Salt Lake City or LV.

 

[Doit]

OK most people probably know I'm a big Tesla fan. Been around Tesla since 2009...took a very early test drive in a Roadster 1.0, bought an early Model S sight unseen, was one of the first in Virginia to receive a Model S, and most of my life savings is in TSLA. And I'll probably never buy anything but a Tesla for the rest of my life. So if this bothers you, brace yourselves--it's coming from a perspective of love.

<rant>
But ugh, that door. I really hope it wasn't delivered that way, although I don't think Marques would lie about it. Those kinds of quality issues are pretty embarrassing and absolutely unacceptable for *any* carmaker, much less Tesla. Tesla needs to be leading in this kind of stuff, not putting out the worst fit and finish of any vehicle on the planet. Marques honestly should have been more harsh to Tesla about it, and I hope someone high up sees it.

Tesla's never going to get over its reputation for poor assembly quality until that kind of inexcusable nonsense is a thing of the past. Tesla is way too mature at this point for that kind of stuff to still be happening at this point.

Elon, fire your head quality person. Again. Keep firing them until this kind of stuff stops happening. There is NO excuse. Early builds happen at a much slower pace and there's more time to fix issues like this. If you can't fix the assembly, send it to the trash bin and try again. No customer should ever get a door that fits so terribly.

I know the vehicle's an early build, but most of the early deliveries go to celebrities, reviewers, and high profile people. Tesla should know better at this point than to let garbage assembly like that out of the factory door.

Quality isn't that hard to get right--or at least a hell of a lot better than that. It's like nobody in the QA department even cares.
</rant>

This rant is uncalled for.

I believe Sandy Munro has seen more cybertrucks and is able to look much deeper and closer in term of build quality and he seems concluding that Cybertruck is much better than previous models and Tesla is doing a better job than anybody else could be. While Munro is somewhat fanboy-ish recently, I trust him much more than Marques in tech assessment.

Not to dunk Marques or anything, but his "expertise" in tech is in gadgets like smartphones, earbuds, etc. Marques is good at assessment of product looks, feels, and apparent quality issues, like panel gap, i.e. mainly user experience and that's all. This single cybertruck is not acceptable, panel gap wise, according those watched the video. But that alone is not enough to jump to conclusion of bad quality control.

 

[hobbes]

Each truck has 1360ish cells, so that's 1.4 million a week.
It was 4 months to go from from 10 million to 20 million cells (June to October). This puts them at a rate of 10 million cells in under 2 months. So they've double production in the last 5 months.
We don't have insight into how many lines are running, so it's hard to project growth moving forward, but if this is only Line 1&2, they have another doubling near term (100k trucks), and another by end of year (200k trucks) just from added line capacity. Efficiency improvements stack on top of that.

You skipped some of the math you did there, let me know if I get it right:

• Current news is 1K CT per week, 1360 cells/CT means 1,360,000 cells/week or 5.9M per month (at 4.3 weeks/month on average)
• In June they announced 10M cells produced total, October the same for 20M cells so 10M cells produced in the 4 months in between = 2.5M cells/month
• 5.9M/2.5M > 2 so more than double production rate of 4680 cells

You had me a bit confused with accumulated vs. weekly cell production...

To nitpick, if they produced 2.5M cells per week on average in Jun-Oct, the run rate in Oct was already higher than that so took longer than 5 months to increase production rate by the factor 5.9/2.5 but I guess we´re trying to be more exact than we really can given the few data points anyway.

 

[Knightshade]

I don't think I'm deluded at all. The pre-announcement is indeed a tactic designed to goose sales this quarter. But the actual need to raise prices in China is probably real. China EV sales are hitting the steep part of the S curve. Tesla probably realized that they won't be able to keep up with demand unless they raise prices.

The fact sales YTD are down a couple percent from the same time last year tells us otherwise.

Now, it's possible they've concluded that pricing is just as inelastic up a touch as it is down a touch-- meaning they don't think this price raise will REDUCE sales as much as it'll help margin (an effect they saw in the opposite direction as they slashed them more than sales increased)--- but the idea they need to increase them because of some huge S-curve-jump in demand is factually, provably, false by the actual sales so far this year.

Not to dunk Marques or anything, but his "expertise" in tech is in gadgets like smartphones, earbuds, etc. Marques is good at assessment of product looks, feels, and apparent quality issues, like panel gap, i.e. mainly user experience and that's all. This single cybertruck is not acceptable, panel gap wise, according those watched the video. But that alone is not enough to jump to conclusion of bad quality control.

A page before your post is literally Elon Musk admitting this was a manufacturing error failing to tighten something sufficiently (since fixed in production).

I'm just floored by the several people rushing to victim blame folks who got cars with manufacturing errors.

People in the various model-specific threads still get factory-defect cars on S, 3, X, and Y as well and those aren't "new" cars. Not as many as used to, but not 0.

Nobody makes perfect cars 100% of the time- including Tesla.

 

[uscbucsfan]

This rant is uncalled for.

I believe Sandy Munro has seen more cybertrucks and is able to look much deeper and closer in term of build quality and he seems concluding that Cybertruck is much better than previous models and Tesla is doing a better job than anybody else could be. While Munro is somewhat fanboy-ish recently, I trust him much more than Marques in tech assessment.

Not to dunk Marques or anything, but his "expertise" in tech is in gadgets like smartphones, earbuds, etc. Marques is good at assessment of product looks, feels, and apparent quality issues, like panel gap, i.e. mainly user experience and that's all. This single cybertruck is not acceptable, panel gap wise, according those watched the video. But that alone is not enough to jump to conclusion of bad quality control.

There are tons of posts on fit and finish issues with the CT. Some have been posted here many on the CT forum.

It's crazy that people think these are made up or doctored. Go look in every single model forum and you will see stories from the past and recently about terrible products getting delivered to customers.

Most delivery centers don't even wash cars before delivering them, much less adjust panels, doors, etc.

All this said, Tesla has gotten better at this. Way better than they were before. I don't know that anyone would say Tesla is great in this aspect, but it's gone from a majority of cars having fit and finish issues to a minority.

Almost every new model starts off worse. The refresh S/X were plagued with issues when they first went out the door and right now the CT has the same thing. It's not every single truck, but there are a lot out there. Tesla will fix it and they will get better.

The one thing Tesla never will be is dealership level deliveries. They deliver so many vehicles and seem to have staff that doesn't care that there will always be dirty, scratched, etc deliveries. Most of the time they don't even check. I had a completely flat tire on my MS...they drove it to the front of the store on the rim...no one noticed. It is what it is, but they fixed it quickly and continue to fix issues 2 years later like rattles without really any pushback...

 

[DarkandStormy]

I don't think I'm deluded at all. The pre-announcement is indeed a tactic designed to goose sales this quarter. But the actual need to raise prices in China is probably real.

China EV sales are hitting the steep part of the S curve. Tesla probably realized that they won't be able to keep up with demand unless they raise prices.

 

[Krugerrand]

Problem has been addressed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770288146477203737

Per usual, people getting bent out of shape on that mole hill.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Major reason is simple, lack of Tesla service centers. People like the comfort of knowing a "dealership" is reasonably close to them. In some states there are no Tesla service centers or maybe 1 or 2 meaning a significant number of people are hours away from a service center. That is a huge negative. Take the 3 northern New States for example. There is 1 Tesla service center and that just opened in Vermont. New Hampshire and Maine don't have service centers. Take a look around the country and there are a lot more states with either no service center or one. Many people simply won't buy a Tesla for that very reason. I wonder how many people in the US are within an hours drive of a major legacy car maker compared to Tesla? The difference in numbers is enormous and that directly affects Tesla sales.

https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&bounds=43.3588078826318,-76.32957132812501,29.1925375730986,-109.90379007812501&zoom=6&filters=delivery centers,service

The number 1 question I get asked, even more than range, is where is the closest service center/dealership?

Strongly agree. I live in Vermont and until now the nearest service center has been a four hour round trip to Lathrop New York. Just had my first Ranger service visit a few weeks ago (to fix a fog light) and showed a bad panel gap to the technician. He measured and said it was sufficient to warrant adjustment on a new service ticket. The larger issue for us investors you raise, is myopic allocation of resources as the company has reached large scale and profitability. With 20+ billion in cash reserves, why not deploy .0001 % to correcting quality problems, adding service centers more proactively and other steps to support demand growth prior to ramping of Model 2. Including ramping overdue efforts to overcome widely held misconceptions about EVs versus ICE vehicles.

 

[Snerruc]

9

For me it’s 300 miles to Salt Lake City or LV.

until I moved to the mainland, it was two days on the weekly barge for me.

 

[jschwefel]

This is a huge issue. Unless you live in a major metro area, you have to really want a Tesla to deal with the distance from Service/Sales. Every damn small town in America has a Ford, GM and Toyota dealership. Living in the FL panhandle it's 2 hours west, or 5 hours east to the nearest sales/service center. Rivian won't even let me order a truck though.

IDK…like range anxiety, I think this service anxiety is more perception than reality. The fact is electric vehicles are simpler and have no scheduled maintenance. Contrast this with my diesel truck, which always seems to need something (oil change, fuel filters, DEF,…). Gas vehicles aren’t as bad, but still…

Tesla’s issues (recalls and manufacturing quality) are amplified by the MSM and YouTubers. Of the four Teslas I’ve owned over the last eight years, I can only think of one issue that required me to take it in to the Service Center to be looked at. That was a recall that had something to do with the Model 3 trunk latch, I think. All the other “recalls” have been addressed via software updates that happen automatically. Contrast this with my 2021 Ram 2500. It has had at least six, maybe more, actual recalls that have required a visit to the dealer. And panel gaps…well my Ram truck certainly isn’t perfect; in fact it’s worse than any of my Teslas.

Thinking about unscheduled maintenance on the Teslas, I had the 12v battery replaced in my Model X, but the car alerted me to the issue and a Tesla Mobile Service Tech came to my house and replaced it under warranty. A similar thing happened with my Model S. I also had the center screens fixed for the “bubbles” and edge yellowing, but both of these were cosmetic issues, not functional problems.

On the Model 3, several years ago I had a squeak in the driver’s seat. I’m 6’ tall and I position the seat as far back as it will go. I talked to Tesla Service about the squeak, and they said the next software update would address it. I said…What?…and they said the new software would stop the seat about a quarter inch short of what’s causing the squeak. In the meantime, just bump the seat forward a little bit. Wow! This “mechanical problem”, i.e. a squeak, was solved via software. Mind blown.

Anyway, I’m not saying fossil-fueled vehicles don’t have a place; I am saying that place should not be as high as their sales suggest. There are a lot of people who would enjoy the benefits of driving electric today if they understood them better.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a huge issue. Unless you live in a major metro area, you have to really want a Tesla to deal with the distance from Service/Sales. Every damn small town in America has a Ford, GM and Toyota dealership. Living in the FL panhandle it's 2 hours west, or 5 hours east to the nearest sales/service center. Rivian won't even let me order a truck though.

As someone who lives in the middle of nowhere - everything requires travel, not just getting vehicle service. If I have a heart attack/stroke, cut a foot off with my chainsaw, run over the spouse with my tractor - well, not sure even the medical helicopter gets here on time. My neighbor has a sign over his door - we don’t call 911. This specifically refers to police services and thusly is a warning to would be trespassers.

The idea is that service should be minimal for your Tesla. So far, that’s been true for me. I expect it to continue. Hopefully any service will not be of the ‘it won’t go’ type. In the event I have to drive several hours to get service, I’ll make it a multi task trip.

Lifestyle choice and thusly not an issue, let alone a huge one.

 

[Krugerrand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770290429788901630

More demand goosing.

 

[Usain]

View attachment 1029906

I said, "China EV sales", which is growing fast as a percent of the overall car market in China.

BYD chairman predicts 50% NEV share in China sooner​

“The penetration rate of NEVs crossed 48.2 percent last week, and if it continues at this rate, I estimate that the penetration could cross 50 percent in the next three months,” Wang explained at the China EV 100 Forum in Beijing over the weekend.

Wang is saying next quarter we hit 50% market share! Granted, he's talking about NEV, but it's a reasonable proxy for EV as well.

My point is that Tesla probably sees the trend as well as BYD. If so, then Tesla wants to take advantage of this with higher pricing. Also remember that insurance registration reflects demand from weeks ago. Tesla knows how fast orders are coming in each day. Tesla has better data than we do.

Again, I think there is more to the China price announcement than just goosing sales for Q1. Tesla thinks demand is rising.

 

[UncaNed]

This is a huge issue. Unless you live in a major metro area, you have to really want a Tesla to deal with the distance from Service/Sales. Every damn small town in America has a Ford, GM and Toyota dealership. Living in the FL panhandle it's 2 hours west, or 5 hours east to the nearest sales/service center. Rivian won't even let me order a truck though.

Supercharger station buildouts amaze me, with an astounding over 30 stations within 100 miles of my home, mostly 250 KW!

But what do we know of service center buildout rates?

 

[stef]

Not sure what it means for production or demand, but Model S and X deliveries are now July/August for all EU countries I've checked. Inventory isn't very big at all. Interesting.
3 and Y still showing 2-5 weeks.

 

[MP3Mike]

With 20+ billion in cash reserves, why not deploy .0001 % to correcting quality problems, adding service centers more proactively and other steps to support demand growth prior to ramping of Model 2.

Because money alone can't solve the issue? It isn't like there is a huge pool of trained Tesla technicians just sitting around waiting to be hired in every location that needs more service capacity.

But they are ramping service capacity:

 

[Krugerrand]

lol - are people this deluded to think preannouncing price rises to occur after end of quarter is anything thier than a tactic to goose end of quarter sales??

I have no issue with the tactic, Tesla has thrown everything already this quarter to try and move cars, no harm throwing in the kitchen sink.

Here’s the problem with that - goosing sales for 1 to 2 weeks isn’t going to do much for the quarter. If they ‘needed’ to goose for the quarter, they’d have done it at least a month earlier. Sales didn’t go off a cliff overnight coincidentally a couple weeks before end of quarter.

Additionally, nobody has come up with a good reason why March 22nd is the European date for price increase.

Lastly, most people are unaware of price increases or decreases because Tesla doesn’t run an ad campaign like OEMs. We still have loads of people who think Tesla’s all cost $100,000.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Here’s the problem with that - goosing sales for 1 to 2 weeks isn’t going to do much for the quarter. If they ‘needed’ to goose for the quarter, they’d have done it at least a month earlier. Sales didn’t go off a cliff overnight coincidentally a couple weeks before end of quarter.

Additionally, nobody has come up with a good reason why March 22nd is the European date for price increase.

Lastly, most people are unaware of price increases or decreases because Tesla doesn’t run an ad campaign like OEMs. We still have loads of people who think Tesla’s all cost $100,000.

Tesla's sales seem to focus on existing Tesla customers.

As I posted in another thread, they were very aggressive starting the last week of February, but they told me about the 10k free SC miles for the quarter, FSD transfer, $1k off for CT deposit, paint/interior color deal (incorrectly, that's another story), and that there would be price increases in the 2nd Q. They were basically saying with the potential price increases (was looking at a MX) I'd pay nearly $10k more if I didn't get delivery before April 1.

Both of my neighbors have Teslas and they were texted as well. Maybe it's a state thing or maybe we all opted in, but I've never had Tesla-corporate reach out so many times as they have in the last 2 months.