Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

FSD is scary the first few weeks you use it

That demo drive is important to help them feel comfortable and confident so they will actually try it out at home.

Tesla should go ahead and tell them that it's normal to be a little scared at first.

Incidentally, when people first installed electric lights they were scared of those too.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If there is a crash during that demo ride, can you refuse the car?

Only if the damage is not 'within spec'

 

[heltok]

I think we are in for another Elon "fix it" moment. It will be a bit messy and Tesla will look silly, but in a few months we have forgotten about it and they got calibration down from ~40km to 50m.

When you do camera orientation estimation aka calibration you are looking for stable key points that are seen by multiple cameras, then do a simple least square on it. The more data the better the accuracy. With video and 8 cameras in they will be getting so many keypoints. From the old autonomy day 1 video they were likely getting thousands of keypoints per frame, today it likely is higher with HW4. With photon counts it may be slightly different most of the feature extraction methods are for RGB not for photon count, but the neural network models should probably generalise to them. At 30frames per second in minutes they should amass millions of keypoints and precision should be getting very good at getting the calibration matrices.

Imo what's needed is basically:
1. the car needs to move around
2. the environment needs to be detailed in all directions

Not sure what more is needed or why this has to happen in multiple type of environments. Guess the long range camera needs a few long range objects, maybe these are more common on highways?!

 

[Joe F]

I’m sure you know this, but “Downloading” is different than “Installing”. The car has been downloading for about 36 hours now, so something is obviously stuck. Someone posted this can happen with hardware 4. I’ve tried a reboot, and I went into Service Mode, but I didn’t change anything. I’ll just wait for Tesla to answer the service request.

Yep, fully aware. However, that’s why I said “unless something changed.” Also why I said “probably to completion.”

Back years ago when I used to monitor network traffic when installing, I’d see bidirectional traffic, and my feeling still is that “installing” still needs a wifi connection, although I’ve never tried installing without a network connection.

Having said that though, 36 hours is not normal to download. Agree with it’s stuck. Call the mothership to have it kicked in the rear.

 

[powertoold]

Just fyi,

Camera calibration is currently two parts

1) autopilot / NoA calibration - takes about 20-30 miles of highway
2) fsdb calibration - takes an additional ~20-30 miles of highway

During calibration parts 1 and/or 2, it will seem like it's struck at a certain percentage for miles. It's quite an annoying process, especially the fsd calibration, which is pickier about where you're driving.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Found it...
Whole Mars, what a D move!

 

[tivoboy]

Just fyi,

Camera calibration is currently two parts

1) autopilot / NoA calibration - takes about 20-30 miles of highway
2) fsdb calibration - takes an additional ~20-30 miles of highway

During calibration parts 1 and/or 2, it will seem like it's struck at a certain percentage for miles. It's quite an annoying process, especially the fsd calibration, which is pickier about where you're driving.

Camera calibration will actually occur just on surface streets.. so doesn’t require highway, unless you’re just referring to highway based v11 FSDb.

 

[Jim Holder]

Camera calibration will actually occur just on surface streets.. so doesn’t require highway, unless you’re just referring to highway based v11 FSDb.

Good but still impossible to do with every new car delivery, extending delivery time from 10-15 minutes to 1+ hour per customer per car driving far enough for calibration and then back (to drop off the Tesla employee) .

Don’t know how this wasn’t considered before issuing the edict.

 

[jerry33]

If you ever go on FB software group, you'll find many confused people. I just recently helped a "my subscription expired and my car no longer change lanes on hwys, should I call the service center?" There's a reason why Tesla doesn't score very high in "reliability" from JDpowers because they get bombarded with stupid a%% questions daily. So yes please have the delivery person teach new buyers how to use the programs!

Agreed.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Camera calibration will actually occur just on surface streets.. so doesn’t require highway, unless you’re just referring to highway based v11 FSDb.

It calibrates faster on a well marked interstate.

To calibrate, cameras require highly-visible lane markings in both the driving lane and adjacent lanes (at least two lanes over on each side of the vehicle). For best results, drive in the middle lane of a multi-lane highway (ideally with at least five lanes) that has clear lane markings and minimal traffic.

This is from the user manual.

 

[kbM3]

- 4680 production issues resolved in a significant way

Wall St. has hammered Tesla on demand concerns. Solving 4680 production doesn’t help demand. So I don’t believe Wall St. would value increased production unless it comes with good COGS reductions. And they would want to see that reflected in margins, before re-rating. Or they would need to see imminent new vehicles that will be using the 4680’s.

 

[jerry33]

Camera calibration will actually occur just on surface streets.. so doesn’t require highway, unless you’re just referring to highway based v11 FSDb.

Never did for me in 250 miles--most of them well marked multi-lane. Finished calibration quickly when I went on the freeway, so now I calibrate and make sure I drive a few freeway miles, then it finishes quickly (30 miles or so).

 

[MC3OZ]

Is this even solid state? I think of solid state as a super capacitor. Isn't this still chemical with just a hard coating of electrolyte vs other application processes? And so much for low-cost iron considering their "High Nickel content".

Technically "solid state" requires a solid electrolyte....

This seems like a high density battery, which may or may not have solid electrolyte.

Classic "solid state" often has a ceramic electrolyte / separator....

To judge a battery we need all relevant specs:-

• Energy Density
• Charging speed
• Cycle-life
• Cost

Cost normally provides a strong clue about the ease of ramping production.

Often these announcements gloss over the specs that are below average.

 

[tivoboy]

Never did for me in 250 miles--most of them well marked multi-lane. Finished calibration quickly when I went on the freeway, so now I calibrate and make sure I drive a few freeway miles, then it finishes quickly (30 miles or so).

I just finished the most recent with about 12 miles of local city driving… the little icon in the upper left corner by PRND shows the progress.. who knows, maybe when I get on the highway tomorrow it’ll say FSDb not calibrated, requires camera calibration. I’ll check that tomorrow.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today Cathie Wood bought TSLA shares for two of her ARK funds: ARKK & ARKW. She also bought TSLA for those funds on Friday.

 

[SOULPEDL]

And ARK is done buying as well

Seems ARK was not done buying TSLA today...
ARKK - 133K
ARKW - 30K

Edit: Missed it by that much! I just can't compete with Curt.

 

[Discoducky]

If there is a crash during that demo ride, can you refuse the car?

Drive does not have to be in the customers car

 

[Discoducky]

Technically "solid state" requires a solid electrolyte....

This seems like a high density battery, which may or may not have solid electrolyte.

Classic "solid state" often has a ceramic electrolyte / separator....

To judge a battery we need all relevant specs:-

• Energy Density
• Charging speed
• Cycle-life
• Cost

Cost normally provides a strong clue about the ease of ramping production.

Often these announcements gloss over the specs that are below average.

PSA, SAIC is the patent company, largest automaker in China. And they have a new battery plant as of October 2023.

April 8th details are hopefully plentiful

 

[Stretch2727]

FYI. Really pushing FSD.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772430031450427556

 

[SOULPEDL]

FYI. Really pushing FSD.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772430031450427556

They should make April free for everyone like I told them!
(Edit: But don't tell them until April 1st!)