Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JupiterMan]

I don't think the target customer group of $25000 Model 2 are willing to pay $12000 or $199/month.

It's quite possible that the total cost of ownership for a self driving $25k car will be less than an ICE.

This can be improved further by reviewing costs and licensing of FSD - I still maintain that Tesla could increase margins by offering FSD as a personal license without RoboTaxi option -and let those who want to earn money off their cars pay for the full FSD Robotaxi license like we have now or to upgrade to it later. The FSD market needs to be cut along these lines.

 

[cliff harris]

It's quite possible that the total cost of ownership for a self driving $25k car will be less than an ICE.

This can be improved further by reviewing costs and licensing of FSD - I still maintain that Tesla could increase margins by offering FSD as a personal license without RoboTaxi option -and let those who want to earn money off their cars pay for the full FSD Robotaxi license like we have now or to upgrade to it later. The FSD market needs to be cut along these lines.

Agreed 100%. Robotaxi license wouldn't even need to be explicit, you can just have tiers based on the extent to which you use it each day. For example, have a tier where 2 journeys per day can use FSD, which is frankly all 99% of owners would ever need, but certainly wouldn't be enough for robotaxi or even conventional taxi or delivery drivers or traveling sales people etc. Make that $100 a month. Keep current prices for the rest. Allow on-demand pay-per-use for the rare times you DO need it 3 times in a day.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

It's quite possible that the total cost of ownership for a self driving $25k car will be less than an ICE.

This can be improved further by reviewing costs and licensing of FSD - I still maintain that Tesla could increase margins by offering FSD as a personal license without RoboTaxi option -and let those who want to earn money off their cars pay for the full FSD Robotaxi license like we have now or to upgrade to it later. The FSD market needs to be cut along these lines.

This is absolutely how FSD should be positioned. I think Elon and Cathy vastly overestimate the number of people who will be willing to turn their cars over to the masses. And to date, I've not seen any presentation on exactly how Robo-utopia would work - who will charge the cars between fares? It's not like Supercharger stations have attendants - or will they be Optimus robots? How will profits be split between the owner and Tesla? And liability insurance? Damages? Who will clean the cars? No, not for me. But I did like having FSD on my last car and would consider buying/renting it again for personal use - but not at the absurd price Tesla is charging today.

 

[Cobbler]

Italy reportedly contacted Tesla about truck production, shares climb By Investing.com

Italy reportedly contacted Tesla about truck production, shares climb

au.investing.com

 

[Usain]

Seriously, how much would you pay for FSD?
I tried V12.3 and it is awesome and the future looks bright, but the price... $12000 (and rumored to become $15000 soon, is really too much.
I personally won't buy it, and neither subscript it for $199 for a couple months for my Model Y.
My bottom line will be $60/month, similar to Home Internet/Mobile Data Plan's monthly charge. Or $6000 lifetime, and must be transferrable to new owner if I sell the car.
That is required for real general public adoption. I don't think the target customer group of $25000 Model 2 are willing to pay $12000 or $199/month.

That brings concerns to me. Here we are all excited about FSD and hope it will give some vibe to stock price (e.g., $176.5 premarket price now). However, how much revenue will it actually bring to Tesla? I am afraid not as much as Elon is expecting.

I agree. As much as I love the technology, it needs to be either cheaper or better for mass adoption.

It's not going to get cheaper. I don't think Elon wants to give away the store.

But it's definitely going to get better. And it looks like better is coming fast.

I do worry about this one month trial and super-push to get everyone to try it before it's "better" enough. I think it would be best to wait about 6 months. By then, more of the kinks will be worked out of FSD and Actually Smart Summon will be fully operational.

 

[NicoV]

I agree. As much as I love the technology, it needs to be either cheaper or better for mass adoption.

It's not going to get cheaper. I don't think Elon wants to give away the store.

But it's definitely going to get better. And it looks like better is coming fast.

I do worry about this one month trial and super-push to get everyone to try it before it's "better" enough. I think it would be best to wait about 6 months. By then, more of the kinks will be worked out of FSD and Actually Smart Summon will be fully operational.

Give 1 month of free FSD every year. Soon everybody will be addicted.

 

[Usain]

Give 1 month of free FSD every year. Soon everybody will be addicted.

That's probably a good idea.

And think how good FSD could be a year from now. It will almost certainly be hands-free. And it might be to the point where it lets you stop paying close attention to the road.

 

[Cobbler]

"769 city miles to critical DE is not a typo. This is only for Mar 19-25 for 12.3. The number 269 u currently see on the charts / table is for overall 12.3 which started on Mar 15."

 

[Discoducky]

WuWa with more info this morning:

"On 25 March, Ningde Times Chairman Zeng Yuchun said in an interview that Ningde Times and Tesla are working together to develop batteries with faster charging speeds. The two sides are working together on new electrochemical structures and other battery technologies designed to speed up charging. Zeng Yuchun also revealed that Ningde Times is providing equipment to Tesla's factory in Nevada, USA. The news came as CATL's Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks rose 4% today (26 March)."

 

[unk45]

There's a reason why Tesla doesn't score very high in "reliability" from JDpowers because they get bombarded with stupid a%% questions daily. So yes please have the delivery person teach new buyers how to use the programs!

Once reviewing the details of JD Power auto reliability questionnaire it all becomes obvious. Since that is not easy to find or digest…their press release makes it obvious too:

https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2024-us-vehicle-dependability-study-vds

From some time helping clients to ‘build to J D Power’ and Consumer Reports the truth becomes both obvious and instructive.
Since both regard ignorance of operating a vehicle with problem the fact is that the simplest and most traditional has the highest rating from both. That has made many manufacturers to ‘dumb down’ controls and some to keep traditional controls while adding higher technology features (e.g. many Volvo and Mercedes Benz models).

Tesla does not ‘built to ignorance’. Years ago @Papafox published a Flight Instructor’s guide’ and generated large support from lots of us who were either flight instructors or pilots. I was both, once upon a time, and absolutely think Tesla should offer formal orientation sessions, not brief drives from inexperiences sakes people, but at minimum a day-long session that includes using a drivers side simulation, replicating the widespread portable aircraft simulators. Were such a thing to be done several virtuous things would happen: 1. FSD sales would rise; 2. Driver awareness would improve; 3. Ratings would improve and; 4. Those sessions could be used to help educate ignorant regulators, analysts and critics. Above those, they could be used by Tesla design teams to improve ergonomics and simplify complexity for drivers.

The previous paragraph contains a recipe for driver satisfaction improvement. Until now the Tesla preoccupation is to remove the driver with Robotaxi. That will not happen at scale for decades. In the meantime help the drivers and improve satisfaction!

This stuff works! I, with only one functioning eye, earned an Airline Transport Pilot rating, a flight instructor CFII-SMEL plus Helicopter and five jet type ratings, including some single-pilot ones. I add that not because I’m exceptional. I am distinctly NOT. Were there to be only a single day entertaining Tesla orientation, emphasis entertaining, Tesla would reap huge dividends.

This, by the way, is the formula used by Porsche from time to time, by Cirrus to become the best selling small jet aircraft and, in simplified form by Apple to have free orientation sessions. Those who don’t do such things may think them anti-competitive!

 

[uscbucsfan]

Wasn't that on 12.3, not 12.3.1 that Elon said would fix it. DirtyTesla said 12.3.1 fixed all of his speed problems.

It didn't for me and many others. It's better, but not fixed. Maybe that's why 12.3.2 is coming.

 

[DarkandStormy]

This "all cars V12" wording certainly is rubbing me the wrong way. After all, I purchased a "Feature Complete, just waiting for regulatory approval" FSD over seven years ago and it still has not been graced with V12. You - if you're an old-timer - should remember: we would be able to drive hands-free coast to coast by the end of 2017.....

Remember, this is just Elon being "aspirational."

 

[DarkandStormy]

Kinda feels like musk is freaking out about how bad deliveries are going to be and he’s trying to play mis direction

Could be many things (imo).

-Deliveries are going poorly, so try to up the avg revenue per sale by getting a few more people to buy FSD
-Deliveries are going poorly, so force a mandatory step in the sales process that would appear to "slow down" sales
-FSD is on the verge of Level 5 autonomy, so try to get more people to buy it
-Sales are bad, so try to juice up deferred FSD revenue recognition, to the extent that there is any deferred revenue left to recognize.

 

[2daMoon]

I agree. As much as I love the technology, it needs to be either cheaper or better for mass adoption.

It's not going to get cheaper. I don't think Elon wants to give away the store.

But it's definitely going to get better. And it looks like better is coming fast.

I do worry about this one month trial and super-push to get everyone to try it before it's "better" enough. I think it would be best to wait about 6 months. By then, more of the kinks will be worked out of FSD and Actually Smart Summon will be fully operational.

It seems to me a flat rate for the service, like $50/mo. and then a per mile adder for use. Maybe with some base number of miles included in the standard fee.

This way an owner would pay some amount per mile for anything over the base monthly distance, if exceeded.

That would make a fair-for-all use cases pricing.

As for the 1 month trial, this is really just more of the free advertising that Tesla enjoys. Those who do give FSD a whirl, even if only for the free period, will be shouting to the rooftops about these magical cars.

 

[DarkandStormy]

13.2k new Tesla registrations for week of 3/18 - 3/24 in China:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772514989720392022

If I have this right, Q1 2024 China sales are trending towards Q1 2022 levels. That's in Tesla's biggest market.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Could be many things (imo).

-Deliveries are going poorly, so try to up the avg revenue per sale by getting a few more people to buy FSD
-Deliveries are going poorly, so force a mandatory step in the sales process that would appear to "slow down" sales
-FSD is on the verge of Level 5 autonomy, so try to get more people to buy it
-Sales are bad, so try to juice up deferred FSD revenue recognition, to the extent that there is any deferred revenue left to recognize.

FSD is certainly not on the verge of L5. Not L4, either. Maybe L3.

V12 is a massive improvement over V11, but it will still do the worst thing at the worst time. We will see how quickly they can progress with updates compared to V11. The hope is whenever 12.4 comes out, it's a massive improvement over V12.3.X, then we can be optimistic about L3 goals.

There are still serious issues with the planner, maps/reading speed limits, etc. that will make it unusable without a driver. There are still too many drives where it wants to enter a turning lane at high speeds, gets in the wrong lane before a turn, then tries to cross traffic multiple lanes (if you allow it), doesn't recognize school zones/stopped busses, etc.

I'm actually really happy with V12 outside of the speed issues, but there's a ton that need to be resolved before this is close to a ready product.

 

[jerry33]

It seems to me a flat rate for the service, like $50/mo. and then a per mile adder for use. Maybe with some base number of miles included in the standard fee.

This way an owner would pay some amount per mile for anything over the base monthly distance, if exceeded.

That would make a fair-for-all use case pricing.

Most of my driving is now road trips as I no longer have a commute. This plan will certainly penalize me--unless it's only for those who subscribe rather than purchase. As I take around four road trips a year, eight months would be overcharged because of very few miles (assumes a number of miles are included, and no carry over), and four months would be overcharged due to miles.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Once reviewing the details of JD Power auto reliability questionnaire it all becomes obvious. Since that is not easy to find or digest…their press release makes it obvious too:

https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2024-us-vehicle-dependability-study-vds

From some time helping clients to ‘build to J D Power’ and Consumer Reports the truth becomes both obvious and instructive.
Since both regard ignorance of operating a vehicle with problem the fact is that the simplest and most traditional has the highest rating from both. That has made many manufacturers to ‘dumb down’ controls and some to keep traditional controls while adding higher technology features (e.g. many Volvo and Mercedes Benz models).

Tesla does not ‘built to ignorance’. Years ago @Papafox published a Flight Instructor’s guide’ and generated large support from lots of us who were either flight instructors or pilots. I was both, once upon a time, and absolutely think Tesla should offer formal orientation sessions, not brief drives from inexperiences sakes people, but at minimum a day-long session that includes using a drivers side simulation, replicating the widespread portable aircraft simulators. Were such a thing to be done several virtuous things would happen: 1. FSD sales would rise; 2. Driver awareness would improve; 3. Ratings would improve and; 4. Those sessions could be used to help educate ignorant regulators, analysts and critics. Above those, they could be used by Tesla design teams to improve ergonomics and simplify complexity for drivers.

The previous paragraph contains a recipe for driver satisfaction improvement. Until now the Tesla preoccupation is to remove the driver with Robotaxi. That will not happen at scale for decades. In the meantime help the drivers and improve satisfaction!

This stuff works! I, with only one functioning eye, earned an Airline Transport Pilot rating, a flight instructor CFII-SMEL plus Helicopter and five jet type ratings, including some single-pilot ones. I add that not because I’m exceptional. I am distinctly NOT. Were there to be only a single day entertaining Tesla orientation, emphasis entertaining, Tesla would reap huge dividends.

This, by the way, is the formula used by Porsche from time to time, by Cirrus to become the best selling small jet aircraft and, in simplified firm by Apple to have free orientation sessions. Those who don’t do such things may think them anti-competitive!

Ah, you're talking training. Exactly! You are singing my song.

For the Model 3, early days, it was 10 min of orientation talking about door locks basically. Later on, I thought I was going to accidentally put the car through my garage into the house by forgetting to put it in park. (The Hold vs Creep behavior changed more than they think in our deepest spinal memory.) Again I recommended stuff, but they were set in their ways.

So I too had my rant on this site when we first got the Model 3, and recommended a simulation as well. (Now archived TMC threads.)
Yes it works! And it's low cost considering. But ask any business person the ROI on any training, deer in headlights. For most, it's a checkbox.


But I also knew Tesla was a software company and would likely just work out the issues in the field. I still disagree with this approach.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Been catching up on the last day of posts.

If I understand this correctly Elon now wants Tesla to kidnap their customers at delivery for an hour, or longer, to up-sell? Not a single poster thought that was a little ... un-Tesla?

I've seen thousands of posts over the years criticizing dealers for doing just that.

It is a little scary how so many are able to think everything Elon comes up with on a whim is a brilliant idea.

 

[y_naught]

Most of my driving is now road trips as I no longer have a commute. This plan will certainly penalize me--unless it's only for those who subscribe rather than purchase. As I take around four road trips a year, eight months would be overcharged because of very few miles (assumes a number of miles are included, and no carry over), and four months would be overcharged due to miles.

A simple per mile charge (currently 20 cents per mile based on avg. 12k miles per year and $199 monthly subscription) would be reasonable. A car with FSD not activated costs Tesla the same as a car with active FSD but the driver never uses it. They could offer insurance discounts for miles driven on FSD, too, to help with cost and show why they believe it’s valuable and safer. Or add a premium if used as a robotaxi.