Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Why in the world would you want to have less granular information on the performance of a company you own stock in???
Only because others can spin them and turn them into FUD? Then no info at all would be a good solution?

So many posts here today contrary to my take of things .

Less is more. Because people don’t get better or behave better with more information. You’d think they would, but they don’t. They’ve proven it. (General)

I would be quite content to get no weekly China numbers, no country monthly numbers out of Europe, no boats in transit numbers, no end of quarter P+D numbers, and simply wait until the ER call. Analysts, YTers, and everyone else are going to guess regardless. I’d rather they have to pull the numbers from a hat then hack them together with incomplete data.

Having numbers has never helped a single analyst get their model right. Ever. Because it’s not actually about the numbers. It’s about the story they can get away with telling to make churn.

That guy you’re defending doesn’t actually care about Tesla. He doesn’t care about what the company is doing for the world. He doesn’t care how the company has positioned itself from a business standpoint or any of it. He cares about creating churn to make money. The only time the numbers matter to him is on his final day because accuracy then gets him more money via more paying subscribers.

We are way past the point of needing granular color from Tesla. It isn’t possibly going bankrupt next quarter. It’s no longer the risky investment it once was. Additionally, it’s clear many still don’t understand what the company is about no matter how much Tesla explains its path forward.

I believe for many people who’ve been here for years, we crave information not to take to the bank, but because we believe in the mission and we’re fascinated by the singularity that is Tesla.

 

[Papafox]

I've been seeing big spikes up and down in the after-hours TSLA prices. Looks like we have nervous traders on both sides. Every time I think I see something real I check Press Releases | Tesla Investor Relations to see if the Q1 P&D post is up yet.

 

[Ocelot]

Lol, Troy is a joke.

Troy puts a ton of effort and diligence into their work. It is great they share it with us, and I for one appreciate it.

 

[Zero CO2]

Troy puts a ton of effort and diligence into their work. It is great they share it with us, and I for one appreciate it.

at this stage of Tesla growth his work is unnecessary ... the best forecast is no forecast .. just report the P&D for vehicles at earnings report ...

 

[Snerruc]

I

Have you driven S/X? Both just got refreshed too.

I’ve owned two. “Refresh” is almost 3 years old and cost 6 months production.

 

[AndrewZ]

As usual with a quarter freshly in the rear view mirror, expectations going forward are what will likely drive valuations.

My expectation is that more and more people will come around to what Elon has been saying for years now: autonomy is what will determine whether Tesla is "worth a lot of money or basically zero" (his words not mine). And this shift will probably be borne out of necessity, because I see interest rates staying structurally high and maybe only coming down to the mid 3%s when the Fed finishes cutting -- and treasury yields might stay higher for significantly longer.

Next year, depending upon implementation, it will become even more challenging to qualify for the Inflation Reduction Act tax incentives as vehicles will be excluded if their batteries contain minerals from foreign entities of concern along with ratcheting up the % that needs to be sourced from free trade countries.

So next year you have interest rates still in the 4%s +, maybe even a chance we see zero rate cuts this year, then potentially more vehicles losing half of or the full $7500 credit.


For these reasons and others (competition in China, wages increasing, etc) I think there will be continued pressure on margins and how quickly that turns around seemingly depends upon belief around how big of an impact will be made through further FSD monetization.

 

[jerry33]

like human exactly, except it has more eyes.

Are you sure? Cameras can see further into the upper and lower bands than humans can if the sensors allow it.

 

[ZeApelido]

4” can make a very big difference for some things but not sure it does here.

Did you talk to my wife?

 

[Curt Renz]

Fox Business News - this morning:

 

[MC3OZ]

Yeah, I wasn't so much thinking GM would buy a few computers and solve this thing.

But Nvida has money, and some smart people, and can afford to keep a portion of their chips for themselves and throw more computing power than anyone has ever thought possible at a problem like this, and then lease it out to everyone not named Tesla. Without needing a million cars with cameras first. That's what I'm a bit worried about.

Also if we previously thought Tesla was say five years ahead of everyone else. Wouldn't all these AI improvements cut that to less time? Meaning the value for Tsla would be less than previously thought.

I think if they started now, it would take 5-10 years for competitors to get to where Tesla is now,

If they had a fleet of 100,000 vehicles that could gather data, I would be very confident about 5 years...

They might be able to use 10,000 vehicles and 30,000 drivers work in 3 shifts or some other strategy, but they need the miles on the roads to gather the data.

But if we assume 5 years, what does a 5 year head-start in the Robotaxi business buy Tesla?

I've done some very approximate speculation here:- Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model

• Year 3 - 300,000 Robotaxis / 60 cities

I would guess that 5 years could look like:- 800,000 Robotaxis / 160 cities.

If we assume $10,000 profit per Robotaxi per year that is $8 Billion per year to invest in more factories to build Robotaxis.

My guess is that Tesla could end up owning up to 50% of the global market, and the global market will be at least 60 million.

Everyone has different numbers, because the demand side of the equation is hard to forecast.

The 5 year head start also extends to HW4... HWx, Gen3 and the entire process of building capex efficient factories, which can be built fast and ramped fast.

So a 5 year head-start is huge, and 10 year head-start is governments stepping in to use monopoly powers to try to cap Tesla at 50% market-share.

 

[unk45]

Less is more. Because people don’t get better or behave better with more information. You’d think they would, but they don’t. They’ve proven it. (General)

I would be quite content to get no weekly China numbers, no country monthly numbers out of Europe, no boats in transit numbers, no end of quarter P+D numbers, and simply wait until the ER call. Analysts, YTers, and everyone else are going to guess regardless. I’d rather they have to pull the numbers from a hat then hack them together with incomplete data.

Having numbers has never helped a single analyst get their model right. Ever. Because it’s not actually about the numbers. It’s about the story they can get away with telling to make churn.

That guy you’re defending doesn’t actually care about Tesla. He doesn’t care about what the company is doing for the world. He doesn’t care how the company has positioned itself from a business standpoint or any of it. He cares about creating churn to make money. The only time the numbers matter to him is on his final day because accuracy then gets him more money via more paying subscribers.

We are way past the point of needing granular color from Tesla. It isn’t possibly going bankrupt next quarter. It’s no longer the risky investment it once was. Additionally, it’s clear many still don’t understand what the company is about no matter how much Tesla explains its path forward.

I believe for many people who’ve been here for years, we crave information not to take to the bank, but because we believe in the mission and we’re fascinated by the singularity that is Tesla.

Very well said.

 

[Thekiwi]

The worst I have seen with sun angle recently is that the car will slow down by 5mph when the sun angle is bad. Haven’t seen any disengagements lately.

(Also, what do we human drivers do when blinded? I certainly do not disengage, and a camera’s tolerance for pain is higher than my own).

The sun directly flooding a camera sensor is not a common occurrence and would probably be a rare acceptable disengagement nuisance for those using FSD on their personal vehicle, but of course for a robotaxi where there is no driver it would need to be a solved issue.

What do you humans do? Adjust their sun visors, hats or use their hand to block the suns glare.

Sounds like a joke, but might have to have some sort of tiny movable shade mechanism for the cameras to avoid that (or use a single backup rooftop lidar sensor of course).

 

[joh01652]

Public Service Announcement (from Not a Tesla App on X): Tesla FSD 12.3.3, update 2024.3.10 should now be available to most owners in the US and Canada.If you haven't received the update yet, go in your vehicle and tap on Controls > Software and scroll down.If you already used your "once a day" software check, then you'll have to wait 24 hours after the displayed time to check again.
I've been impatiently waiting for 12.3.3, which has been trending on X all day. I came across the above tweet, so went out to my vehicle, and sure enough, going to Controls > Software, scroll down a bit and the vehicle will say "Searching for updates," or something like that. Takes about a minute, but then the vehicle starts updating immediately. Will try out 12.3.3 tonight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774919413247918389

 

[Thekiwi]

Make of this what you will.

Reuters has a piece discussing multiple different consumer surveys showing dropping consumer consideration for purchasing a Tesla vehicle: https://www.reuters.com/business/au...nub-company-musks-reputation-dips-2024-04-01/

One particular tracker shops a drop of 70% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

 

[GhostSkater]

Is there any robotaxi that works in the fog?

Serious question: does Cruise, Waymo, ...whatever Chinese company you can think of... drive their robotaxis in the fog?

Cameras can actually see better in fog than us

Test with your phone in a foggy day, you will see way farther into it in the picture than with your own eyes

 

[aronth5]

51 new Supercharger locations installed in the US during March. Tesla continues doing a great job expanding the charging infrastructure.
One V4.

Source : supercharge.info

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Make of this what you will.

Reuters has a piece discussing multiple different consumer surveys showing dropping consumer consideration for purchasing a Tesla vehicle: https://www.reuters.com/business/au...nub-company-musks-reputation-dips-2024-04-01/

One particular tracker shops a drop of 70% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down to 31% consideration in Feb 2024.

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A lot of people have been warning about this, but are met with "disagree" or getting reprimanded by the mods. It's a BFD and I don't know why people are choosing to ignore it.

Mod edit: We reprimand people for restarting discussions (if you can call them that) that derail the thread over and over again. When someone posts real information such as the post you reference, we are happy to let it through, but we don't want followups like this one. I trust that is clear. --ggr

 

[willow_hiller]

Although we no longer have Tesla Daily, Rob Maurer is still delivering worthwhile thoughts on X:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774918642993356857

 

[phoggy123]

I take a look at the inventory and discounts on Tesla's website periodically. Until today, the KC service center had one model 3 in inventory and it was an older model. Today they have 5 of them all RWD new body style. I'm wondering if Tesla was holding these back until after Q1 or why they wouldn't show them. Zero discount on these obviously, but they must be ramping in Fremont now if they are making to middle America.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Have been testing 12.3.3. Pretty good.

Two issues I can see.

1. It won’t move in an advanced green left turn arrow. Must be promoted with the pedal. Do they have these in the US? Can’t remember. (Lived there on and off for years).

2. Doesn’t slow down at school zone signs. That’s a for sure ticket every time. The Mounties have no sense of humour around school zones.

Other than that lots of improvements.