Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

Whelp, that was an unmitigated disaster. Reminds me of early 2019--fun times! We recovered.

Silver linings / associated thoughts: (which I firmly believe, as someone who's been closely following the company and its financials since 2012 but will nonetheless likely earn me a boatload of dislikes--and not just from @Krugerrand !)

• Supercharger network is opening up, which will improve utilization of deployed Superchargers and hopefully help continue ramping their growth. Will be a trivially small # in Q1, but should be considerably higher in Q2 (as Ford/Rivian owners obtain the adapter en masse) and beyond (as further OEMs come onboard and we hit the summer travel months). Won't move the bottom-line needle a lot, but I view it as important in the long run if Tesla can maintain its position as the clear fast-charging electron-provider leader.
  • For what it's worth, I had a road trip last month for spring break, and I already ran into a handful of Rivian/Mach-e folks at Superchargers. In no case were they causing Tesla owners to wait, and in every case it was a positive interaction. In one case I had to explain to a Mach-e owner that the v2 Supercharger they were trying to use would not work, and that the app was referring them to a different location < 1 mile up the road.
• FSD trial seems to be going well. I'm still not one to believe that FSD is going to see substantial take-rate improvements at current pricing, as it's still the case that FSD is a 'cool/nice to have' thing and not a paradigm-changing thing, nor is it likely to be for a long time still. (I like FSD! I use it! I would like to keep it! I am absolutely not paying $12k for it!) However, I'm sure this wide trial will result in some uptake, and it's certainly delivering a boatload of training data back to the mothership.
  • tl;dr summary of my views: 12.3 is waaaayyy better than the last version I tested. And it still won't charge itself, nor drive itself without me paying attention, nor will it let me out and find its own parking spot, nor will it even pull into my driveway, nor operate reliably in 'bad weather' (as defined by the car--this level of weather is nowhere near bad enough to cause a human to have significant trouble), nor operate reliably in construction zones, etc etc. It's cool. I like it. We're not getting robotaxis anytime soon.
  • My view is that Tesla loves to charge for this software as though it's finished and delivering on all of its promises. (Proof is in the pudding: Tesla itself won't pay you anywhere near FSD's price when trading in a vehicle with FSD.) Even then, for most consumers it won't be worth $12k. Eliminate the laugher of a product that is the current EAP iteration, and price FSD at $6k or $99/mo, and I guarantee you Tesla sees a substantial rise in overall software revenue. Make FSD transferable at a 75% discount when trading in vehicles, permanently. The current model remains a joke, even on 12.3. FSD is just never going to pull in five figures on consumer vehicle purchases at high take rates. It's just not going to happen. When 'real' robotaxi functionality is available, another business model / pricing strategy will be worthwhile. Until then, it's just years and years of leaving significant money on the table by Tesla.
    • Exhibit A: I own two Teslas (2.5, really, as the third is still in the family, an OG 3 with FSD purchased at $2k). Neither has FSD on it, though I could afford to do so and would have done so at more reasonable (to me) pricing. Now take the (comparatively large) group of consumers for whom adding 25-40% to the purchase price of the vehicle in order to add FSD is simply not financially feasible.
    • I have in my friends/family/close acquaintances circle probably 20 Teslas, none with FSD purchased at the five-figure pricing level.
• Highland and Cybertruck ramps are continuing apace; Performance Model 3 is imminent and will drive some level of pent-up M3P demand. Exhibit A: I will likely buy a Performance 3 when it finally hits.
• Tesla is really going to need to pull out all the stops in Q2 to ensure that the Q2 delivery number is significantly better. For better or worse, it's still a growth stock. One massively bad quarter on growth is a data point. Two consecutive is a trend. For folks like me with aging Teslas, this bodes well for incentives.

Will be an interesting next several months.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's positive because it neglects the elephant in the room: why such a drop in demand?

AFAIK, the auto market grew in the US and Europe. I don't know about total China but BYD BEV sales grew YoY this quarter. Tesla's sales decreased in total so something isn't right.

Their BEV sales did NOT grow. BEV sales where 300,000 - less than last quarter, less than Tesla.

 

[NicoV]

Peoples’ vehicles are a projection of their identity. The gas stations they use? Not so much. You don’t wear BP clothing wherever you go.

True.
But we shouldn’t exagerate the issue. The non-english speaking part of the world doesn’t care what Elon says. Mainly because they don’t understand him, and if they would, they wouldn’t be able to interpret it because they lack the US/North-American context. So less than 5% of the world population is affected. And we need 100% of the world population to switch to EV’s.

 

[M42 Fan]

tbh I think a lot of people bought the existing Y before they remove the stalks - I know that's a sore topic and it's all in the eyes of the beholder, but I made that very comment to my rep a few weeks ago when he was lamenting shortage of MYP inventory, and he said I wasn't the first to make that comment.

The stalk removal is definitely a hot topic. Personally, I don't care, but I know lots do. For me though, after seeing the amount of upgrades in the refreshed 3 vs the previous gen, it justifies the wait for the refreshed Y.

 

[Mengy]

Fear with numbers and details. Fear without numbers and details. It’s always fear driving people. Maybe ask yourself why you’re so afraid all the time. You (specifically). You (generally). Once you realize where the fear comes from, only then can you put it aside and live free of it. Thank Baby Jesus Elon is fearless.

Sometimes there is nothing wrong with a little fear Krug, it can even be healthy when tempering expectations. Too many people put fear into a negative connotation in my opinion.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Hello everyone,

I haven't posted here in a long while.

I've been following Elon for about a decade. I live in Kingston, Ontario, where Elon went to Queen's University. Kingston is a small University town of about 130,000 people. Kingston is the first capital of Canada. Elon and I are about the same age. He and I were in this same little town together, once upon a time. No doubt we were at the same nightclub together, back in the day.

I test drove a Model S performance, in Toronto, in December of 2013. That experience changed my life. I instantly knew that Tesla was the future. I was in a difficult financial situation at the time, so could not purchase a $180,000 vehicle. I bought the stock instead.

Fast forward:

My wife and I now own two Tesla's (a Model 3 and a Model Y Performance). Our previous vehicle was a Mazda 3, bought used, we were a one car family. My life changed so significantly when I landed our first Tesla in October of 2021. I don't know how to make you all understand. Overnight I became a boss man in this little town. My life has been like a movie ever since.

I've banked on full self driving for a while now, learning from all of you for nearly a decade, thank you. This recent update, V12 is incredible. I've never felt more confident in my investment in TSLA.

Change is hard. A lot of people fight it. So true in my hometown, where Elon passed through. But change is coming, like it or not. All these Queen's kids adore Elon. This is where hope lies.

It sucks to have to get involved in politics. Nobody wants to. But it's been necessary for me, as our member of parliament in this little University town has been talking *sugar* about Elon, for a while now. His name is Mark Gerretsen and he is on his way to losing the next Federal election in fantastic fashion. He's sitting at 17% of the vote, while his conservative opponent is polling at 70%.

To summarize:

Life's a journey, folks. Stay true to yourself. Do what you know is right. Invest in same. Have patience. Rewards will come your way.

Sincere thank you and respect to you all. You've all taught me so much and I am forever grateful.

Change is coming. Love y'all.

Apologies to Mods for my follow up political oriented post. I haven’t been here for a while. I’m also not great with “rules”. Respect.

 

[EVDRVN]

There’s how people actually behave and how they “should” behave (define that as you will).

A company that’s not Tesla will be getting my next automobile purchase because of very vocal antics from Mr. Musk. That may be noteworthy for investors.

Since the company is sitting on like 60,000 unsold cars after throwing discounts, advertising, FSD transfers, and unlimited supercharging transfers, something might be up, as it were.

You won't convince many people here that Elon impacts net sales yet I've been driving EVs for about 20 years now and I have unfortunately spent hundreds of hours converting people toward evs or to buy Teslas because they don't like some things he says or does. I have have even had people threaten to assault me at a hotel because I said "Elon did not do that". Depends where you live but the bubble goes both ways.

Now to make things more interesting I find out that MY GF may be blood related to Elon.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Apologies to Mods for my follow up political oriented post. I haven’t been here for a while. I’m also not great with “rules”. Respect.

Can I share my @x profile on here for those who wish to engage with me or no?

 

[aubreymcfato]

Their BEV sales did NOT grow. BEV sales where 300,000 - less than last quarter, less than Tesla.

Depends how you look at it.
BYD decreased QoQ, increased YoY.
It seems seasonality is big in China.

 

[winfield100]

From a gas station.

You think in 5-10 years gas will be hard to find?

yes, too expensive to find and refine, so TE will be very valuable
edit: this is _world_ Terawatt hours generated
in ~4 years 10,000TWH/yr, in around 7-8 yrs 20,000TWH/yr, etc. from _free_ fuel much that can be used at point of generation and as DER
edit: some of us remember when gas 8% the cost of today, 29cents a gallon, and how it "step functioned" UP in price, as it will do again sooner than many wish.
TE and wind/solar/batteries for the win

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[EVDRVN]

Sometimes there is nothing wrong with a little fear Krug, it can even be healthy when tempering expectations. Too many people put fear into a negative connotation in my opinion.

There is risk to having none. I watched many a business get tanked from not having some healthy fear. Elon is not the know everything engineer. I mean since the inception of Tesla he still thinks the US runs on 110/220V.

 

[Krugerrand]

Slight disagree... the accent isn't the issue for me; it's the perception that he has less backbone than Zach and less willing to challenge Elon (behind the scenes). From a career preservation perspective, I don't fault him for this but from a highly-compensated steward of the company I think he shares some of the blame.

My impression is he got the role partly because of this.

A good CFO watches the books; a great CFO helps guides the company while also watching the books. Big difference.

You don’t even know him and you didn’t know Zach. Listening to someone for a total of 10 minutes, 4x/year is hardly enough to determine who has more backbone, let alone who is doing the better job. And now you’re suggesting the guy got the job based on this make believe backbone fiction you’ve got in your head? Get back to me when these guys have biographies written about their days at Tesla.

Again, two VERY different time periods for the company !?might!? require two very different people to navigate the company through.

 

[mtndrew1]

You won't convince many people here that Elon impacts net sales yet I've been driving EVs for about 20 years now and I have unfortunately spent hundreds of hours converting people toward evs or to buy Teslas because they don't like some things he says or does. I have have even had people threaten to assault me at a hotel because I said "Elon did not do that". Depends where you live but the bubble goes both ways.

It’s such a weird position to be in because I, too, often defend the company because there are so many outright falsehoods about Musk and Tesla floating around.

That said it’s very easy to pull up actual screenshots and quotes these days straight from the horse’s mouth which project a very specific narrative.

If that’s not the narrative that aligns with the buyer, it’s a turnoff. The absence of a political narrative when car shopping is ideal, in my opinion.

 

[Krugerrand]

And I wonder how many employees actually agree with all of Elon's personal (and very radical) opinions...maybe a small percentage? That's it I bet.

Says the millions of resumes they receive every year. Yeah, it’s surely a huge problem.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Their BEV sales did NOT grow. BEV sales where 300,000 - less than last quarter, less than Tesla.

Good thing the post you referenced cited YoY, not QoQ.

 

[Krugerrand]

You may be misunderstanding the point of my post. I’m not willing to buy another Tesla automobile because I don’t want to be associated with the brand every time I drive somewhere and I don’t want it front and center at home and work. This may be an interesting data point for investors.

Not anymore interesting to me then all the brand association I’ve heard about for over the last decade concerning Tesla. The names may change but the ridiculousness of people doesn’t.

You aren’t special. Your opinion isn’t new. Just fyi.

 

[KBF]

I have no aversion to using Tesla’s network because it doesn’t follow me around with the car. I certainly hope they build a robust and profitable EV charging network to further adoption.

You may be misunderstanding the point of my post. I’m not willing to buy another Tesla automobile because I don’t want to be associated with the brand every time I drive somewhere and I don’t want it front and center at home and work. This may be an interesting data point for investors.

I’ll use whatever charging network is most practical with my next car because I won’t be regularly seen with the brand. Just like when I buy gasoline for my F150 or my bike I’m sure it’s going to some unsavory company but I don’t drive around with an Exxon logo bolted to the tailgate.

Ah, so it's not about actual ethics, it sounds like you're concerned about how others perceive you and your car. Honest questions - what do you think is the worst thing that could happen with that potential association? Do you feel that you have no power to change others' perception (or help others change the way they view Tesla), that you could show that 'not all Tesla Owners' are xyz?

I've personally had several interactions with others that start off as antagonistic (from their end) turn into an important educational opportunity. It's not a big deal to me, but this can stress out certain personalities more than others (though anyone has the capacity to educate others with some training and confidence).

You point out rightly that most people (the same ones that judge Tesla) just turn a blind eye to the megacorp association that truly exists, tied to every gas fill-up. That's insightful, and I wonder if you could help reveal that to those whose opinions you care about... I personally think that it takes multitudes of Tesla Owners to just be honest and authentic about what Tesla is truly about, what our actual experiences of driving are, irregardless of what a CEO says about unrelated things, and take the blinders off of those we meet. It takes effort and time and energy, though. 10 years ago with my illness I wouldn't have had much capacity to do it very often.

The alternative, though, is that we continue to pollute our world, allow mega corps with massive war chests who care only about money to brainwash the masses and control messages. I don't think that benefits me, my family, my community or the world.

I believe we can actually create positive change that will benefit our children and grandchildren. Not everyone is confident enough to stand up to the false narratives in our cultures, but I'm just happy when anyone makes at least a little change. It's a bit like diet - every small step towards a healthier lifestyle should be encouraged, but I'm not going to force my friends to drop processed foods cold turkey etc, because many will just then give up.

Anyway, I think I understand where you're coming from, and it would be wise from an investment standpoint to at least acknowledge many people are like this. Exactly how much this affects total sales is very difficult to accurately quantify, as there are so many factors that contribute to demand. And your life situation may mean you don't have the energy or capacity to help show people the invisible associations they ignore every day to their own detriment. That's understandable - but hopefully there are enough of us who can help change our societal trajectories...

Bonus advice:
So a Cybertruck should be fine for you... No Tesla logo in sight! </s>

 

[Krugerrand]

Peoples’ vehicles are a projection of their identity. The gas stations they use? Not so much. You don’t wear BP clothing wherever you go.

My identity is to get from point A to point B, consistently, reliably, for the least amount of fuel and maintenance cost, for the least amount of environmental damage, in a zippy, fun, fart fulfilled way.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OK, some napkin math on batteries and Q1 margins, here goes nothing. Maybe not as Bat as you Tink.

Assuming a simple 50K vehicles short in Q1 and a 75 kWh pack size (maybe less on ave). That's about 50K x 75kWh = 3,750 MWh of Batteries not put in vehicles this quarter.

Stationary in Q1 delivered "4,053 MWh of energy storage products", so QoQ Storage growth may have been easily sourced from the drop in Auto to take up some slack.

Impact on Margins?

Well, "Tesla deployed 3.2 GWh in Q4 2023", so about .850 GWh more Storage this quarter from last gives 0.85/3.2 x 100 = 26% increase in growth... if my numbers are even close, I'll take it!

In this chart below, we see the margins are higher for Storage (source not verified but this could also get even better once China Factory is complete for more volume storage).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750948698383917185

So while there's a loss in 50K vehicles, the gold for Tesla may have shifted to feed Storage growth in Q1 where margins are about 5% better than Auto. (Somebody verify?) Overall a better position, especially if they remain battery constrained overall.

This tells me that Tesla should consider exiting the auto industry to focus on Storage and Energy, but it's a really good thing they're not all about money! And if battery utilization in Storage is better than my car sitting in the garage, this is also good news. Fortunately, FSD "Unsupervised" will kick in someday and take care of some of those "static" Batteries out there sittin' around.

Grok would be a nice add to the vehicle and Optimus. Lots of stuff (always) coming, so hang in there folks.

 

[geometro]

You don’t even know him and you didn’t know Zach. Listening to someone for a total of 10 minutes, 4x/year is hardly enough to determine who has more backbone, let alone who is doing the better job. And now you’re suggesting the guy got the job based on this make believe backbone fiction you’ve got in your head? Get back to me when these guys have biographies written about their days at Tesla.

Again, two VERY different time periods for the company !?might!? require two very different people to navigate the company through.

Breathe, my friend, breathe. No one is attacking you.

Yet, you claim different directives for these people and people complaining about the accent. Not sure why your opinion is more valid.... this whole forum is filled with conjecture laced with some facts and damned statistics.