Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

This time we had an unexpected shutdown in Berlin. #remindme in Q2

Remind us of the date that Berlin came back on line. Then how many days were left in Q1. And now make a wag how many cars they made during that time that had no hope of being delivered.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Respectfully,

I've given thousands of rides to blue collar dudes who drive pick up trucks. These guys hate Teslas, until they have a ride with me. These dudes vote a certain way.

Elon is brilliant. The Cybertruck is a master stroke of that brilliance on display for all of us to see.

Politics is an important part of the investment discussion. For so many reasons. I would like to discuss more here, but will temper myself for the time being. I hope we can open this thread up to respectful political discussion.

Here's a great video from Farzad:

For the record, I'm a 5 star rated Uber driver in Elon's Alma Mater University town. My hometown. I've given almost 8500 rides in my two Teslas. I'm mission driven. I've sold a bunch of Teslas, to business leaders, doctors, lawyers, other Uber Dudes, friends, family, neighbours, students and their parents.

This is how you make change. This is how I make change. In my hometown.

I've had a lot of political "elite" try to take me down. Cancel me. As Elon does, every single day. He's persevered as have I.

Politics is a hugely important part of the conversation we have as investors.

We all come from diverse backgrounds.

What connects us all is the technology. Once you experience 0-60 in 2.4 seconds, that was my iPhone moment, a decade ago, there's no going back.

We are all on the right path.

There's no going back.

Love y'all.

 

[unk45]

But production was almost 50,000 cars higher than deliveries. On top of an already high existing inventory which could've also been delivered since it was already IN inventory.

Also you listed Chinese new year as a production concern, despite it happening in all previous Q1s as well.

To be explicit. Tesla counts as inventory all completed products that have not been transferred to the paid final buyer. That means Suez shipping delays themselves gave an additional week or so inventory for all Shanghai built vehicles destined for Europe. Other shipping delays also happened. Those plus other factors ended producing such huge inventory build up,that they reached about 1/4 the inventory if typical OEM’s even though they all recognize a sake when shipped to dealers, often before the vehicle even arrives to the dealer.

Obviously, these results were not what we hoped for. They did warn us.

 

[Musskiah]

Remind us of the date that Berlin came back on line. Then how many days were left in Q1. And now make a wag how many cars they made during that time that had no hope of being delivered.

Berlin had the electrical outage on Mar 5 was it? They started ramping back up Mar 12, probably took a week (until Mar 19-ish) to get back up to speed of 6k/week and the cars produced in the final week of a Q are often undelivered because of days in transit. Berlin deliveries thus lost something like 2 weeks of vehicle deliveries as a result, on top of final week out as usual because of transit. Something like 10-12k cars short depending on how fast the ramp up.

 

[SO16]

In Q1 2023, many thought the sky was falling with Tesla lowering prices, Elon’s politics, sales drop. Then later last year, Tesla went on to sell more vehicles than ever, stock price reached about 300, Elon still posted about politics on X and has been doing so for years now.

Once again it seems people are reacting prematurely. FSD is looking better, CT ramping, new model 3 performance, energy is ramping, model Y will most likely have a refresh, gen 3 in the works.

If some want to not buy a Tesla because of “political reasons”, so be it. But I can also say that I now have two coworkers stating absolutely their next vehicle will be a Tesla because of Elon. This isn’t a one way street as so many like to portray.

All I know is that I’m going to buy the best product for me regardless of politics. I’m not going to let my safety or fun suffer because of what some other quacks think in my “peer pressure” group.

 

[Stretch2727]

Meanwhile GM sold 9385 Ultium EV's in Q1. 1.5% of total sales. I did not include Bolt as it will be temporarily out of the picture for a year or two.

I just don't think they will ever really move the needle.

Loading…

investor.gm.com

 

[brkaus]

I'll grant you that Elon has done some damage, but we don't know how much.

Images can be repaired. Perceptions do change.

Plus Tesla's current and future products are undeniably better because Elon was driving them. (For instance, we wouldn't be on the verge of cracking FSD without Elon's leadership)

The idea that Elon needs to leave Tesla in order to save it is just going way too far.

I agree with this, but I don't see him putting any effort in that direction.

 

[Krugerrand]

Politics is a hugely important part of the conversation we have as investors.

You had me until here. My investment had and still has less than zero to do with politics. Like minus zero to infinity.

Now I understand that for some people politics played a role in their investment decision. I don’t understand why even a little bit because clearly I came to the same decision without an ounce of political opinion or weight proving it wasn’t necessary to get to the right answer.

Might it then stand to reason moving forward that politics may not be needed for future decisions on this topic? There were just as many political obstacles in the beginning as there are now, some simply have changed.

Tesla is tackling an issue that at its core isn’t political. People are trying their damnedest to make it political, I’ll give you that. But if we wipe ourselves from the planet, as you take your last breath, or as your kids take their last breath, I PROMISE you nobody’s last words will be; I voted for — , or I am a —.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

You had me until here. My investment had and still has less than zero to do with politics. Like minus zero to infinity.

Now I understand that for some people politics played a role in their investment decision. I don’t understand why even a little bit because clearly I came to the same decision without an ounce of political opinion or weight proving it wasn’t necessary to get to the right answer.

Might it then stand to reason moving forward that politics may not be needed for future decisions on this topic? There were just as many political obstacles in the beginning as there are now, some simply have changed.

Tesla is tackling an issue that at its core isn’t political. People are trying their damnedest to make it political, I’ll give you that. But if we wipe ourselves from the planet, as you take your last breath, or as your kids take their last breath, I PROMISE you nobody’s last words will be; I voted for — , or I am a —.

I'm happy to debate you Krugerrand. Honoured in fact. Give me a moment.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

I'm happy to debate you Krugerrand. Honoured in fact. Give me a moment.

I fully agree with you. None of this SHOULD be political in any way. But it has become so. Because the Western world is under attack.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

I fully agree with you. None of this SHOULD be political in any way. But it has become so. Because the Western world is under attack.

I don't know where I can take this conversation with you all without getting banned.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

I don't know where I can take this conversation with you all without getting banned.

Mods, please weigh in.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Today is like your Super Bowl. I know you’ve been hoping for this day for a long time; I hope you enjoy it!

Not sure why you'd think I would enjoy today or that it's the Super Bowl.

Just being realistic about demand.

 

[Knightshade]

To be explicit. Tesla counts as inventory all completed products that have not been transferred to the paid final buyer. That means Suez shipping delays themselves gave an additional week or so inventory for all Shanghai built vehicles destined for Europe.

That's great- but Europe already had high inventory on hand (Troy discussed this at the time and it never came down much)--- so that wouldn't have prevented EU deliveries- it just made ballooning the inventory on the ground in Europe take longer.

Inventory in Europe has been unusually high for a while now.... mentioned here among other places

Tesla Cut Model Y Prices In Europe As Demand Weakened

Tesla made the Model Y more affordable across a number of European countries this week, following an earlier price reduction applied in China.

insideevs.com

Tesla Model Y deliveries in Europe reached their peak in Q1 2023 and have been falling since then every quarter. The report indicates that the year ended with some 32,000 unsold Model Y in Europe sitting in its inventory (including the 10-day production pause at the Giga Berlin in December).

Other shipping delays also happened.

Which, again, were to areas there was already on hand inventory


The only "special" thing this quarter that would have impacted deliveries was the failure of the Model 3 refresh to manage to deliver any significant number of cars for the entire quarter.

That was a significant number of cars not produced, and for which there was no new-3 inventory to draw down on.

But again by best estimates given that would've still left us at least 5k or more deliveries short of flat YoY.

 

[2daMoon]

It's a matter than can affect the share price.

With all due respect, this is something that would be almost impossible to prove conclusively in a dynamic market affected by an uncountable number of variables.

----

To the others who have made comments about having polite political discourse on the forum. Let's be honest.

Anyone who takes the time to discus politics has already taken a side. They will always defend it.

The only way for people to have polite discourse about politics will be if they are open to being swayed to the "other" side by such discourse. The kind of people who would do this well, aren't interested in doing so.

The sort of people who will choose to spend their time entering into such conversations are not the sort who are open to such an idea.

I am unfamiliar with any such a discussion ever having taken place.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Mods, please weigh in.

I prefer cats, btw. Dogs are great too. Just too much work. I like to travel. Cats don't give a *sugar* if you leave for a few days. Dogs lose their *sugar*.

 

[jerry33]

And of course Tesla is well known for being on time always

BTW, I'm surprised you say that. I have hardly ever had problems. Ofcourse I use it only on vacations, not for daily commute.

Denise and I have about a 90% failure rate--even if the ride is made the day before. Uber around here is just totally unreliable. We don't use it for commuting, but once in a while we have tried it. And we are not in the sticks Our city borders on Dallas.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Why can't we say *sugar* on this platform?

 

[MC3OZ]

To be explicit. Tesla counts as inventory all completed products that have not been transferred to the paid final buyer. That means Suez shipping delays themselves gave an additional week or so inventory for all Shanghai built vehicles destined for Europe. Other shipping delays also happened. Those plus other factors ended producing such huge inventory build up,that they reached about 1/4 the inventory if typical OEM’s even though they all recognize a sake when shipped to dealers, often before the vehicle even arrives to the dealer.

Obviously, these results were not what we hoped for. They did warn us.

Is the additional week a one way trip, or for the return journey?

I've seen lots of videos / pictures of cars piled up at a port in China, but very few videos if cars being loaded on a ship.

Production this quarter more or less met my expectations, but I was not expecting a build up in inventory. However, shipping out of China was something that was a potential concern,

I doubt that there is a single explanation for the inventory build up. But IMO it seems like Tesla accepted it was unavoidable, and did not try hard for any end of quarter push, expedited shipping, Q1 incentives, etc.

There are still customers in waiting rooms waiting for a delivery date.

This quote is from the Australian section of this forum:-

Also still Feb-Apr.

That’s so weird, cars already in Aus two weeks back. Wonder what’s the hold up

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Why can't we say *sugar* on this platform?

Honest question. You can't say *sugar*? Who is running this show?