speed of progress is all that matters in the long-run, throw in as many haymakers across different sectors to slow down the inevitable...but, in the end, its the inevitable
- one love, peace
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
speed of progress is all that matters in the long-run, throw in as many haymakers across different sectors to slow down the inevitable...but, in the end, its the inevitable
- one love, peace
I don't see why many would buy the Model 3 even with the refresh in the US when it costs more than the Y after the tax rebate. Am I missing something? We have been lambasting Tesla for the super slow ramp of the refreshed 3 but are a significant number of people going to buy it anyway?
I see the refreshed 3 at $38,990 and an inventory Y at $34,340 after the tax credit.
I see the refreshed 3 at $38,990 and an inventory Y at $34,340 after the tax credit.
You might be missing that it's a newer, smaller and more efficient vehicle that's more fun to drive. Both have their own appeal.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Unfortunately the California government only gives us annual data for ZEV sales by make, so we won’t know until 2024 data comes out next January.
That being said, the irony of your comment is that I heard the exact same argument a year ago when I first published this analysis with data up through 2022. And I heard it before that, all the way back to summer 2020. Last March, I made a bet in the Elon & Twitter thread that we would see similar results for the 2023 California BEV data, because several people had stridently argued that the 2022 data was irrelevant and the latest shenanigans were going to have a huge impact. So I set a calendar reminder to revisit again this week. I did so, and—lo and behold—there is still no evidence of a significant problem. At what point do we attribute these “this time is different!!” concerns to recency bias? I think it’s telling that I don’t even know what “particularly egregious activity” from mid-November that you are referring to, and I am certainly more involved in Musk-related news than the average car-buyer is.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
3 has better range, better handling, better 0-60, refreshed interior.... I'd certainly buy one instead of a Y if I were replacing my current 3. The only thing the Y gets you over the 3 is more cargo space I don't need.
Obviously I'd prefer to get the tax credit too but I'm not going to buy a vehicle that's worse in any way that matters to me because it's slightly cheaper.
But, a sizable number if Model 3 buyers, and Model Y for that matter, are ineligible for the rebates anyway.
Q - Does Tesla publish what eco-friendly products it supports via API for various Tesla products in its lineup?
For example, I'm finding that Span Electrical Panel is urging customers, right now, to go with Powerwall 2 rather than 3 because...they only support the unofficial API on Powerwall 3.
Further, Samsung seems to be making an awesome heat pump:
www.pv-magazine.com
... and they've recently said they're going to integrate their product line up with Tesla:
news.samsung.com
For example, I'm finding that Span Electrical Panel is urging customers, right now, to go with Powerwall 2 rather than 3 because...they only support the unofficial API on Powerwall 3.
Further, Samsung seems to be making an awesome heat pump:
Samsung unveils monobloc heat pump for residential applications
Samsung claims its new product is able provide domestic hot water of up to 75 C when the outdoor temperature is between -10 C and 35 C. It relies on an enlarged heat exchanger that the company claims is capable of transferring more heat compared to a conventional outdoor unit.
www.pv-magazine.com
... and they've recently said they're going to integrate their product line up with Tesla:
Samsung Announces Collaboration With Tesla at CES 2024 for SmartThings Energy
SmartThings Energy is the first to integrate with Tesla’s API to enhance residential energy experience
There is a recent trend which I read about somewhere, (probably UsedCarGuy posting on X).
Those with difficulty obtaining finance or limited access to finance are increasingly being offered used EVs by dealers who are finding it hard to move those EVs.
The reality is it is possible to get 300,000 - 400,000 miles out of an EV battery pack even if it loses up to 70% of the range.
Those buying used on a low budget will not miss the range they never had, even with less range road trips will be possible with fast charging..
These people might be worried about buying an EV after all of the FUD and will be expecting a negative experience.
Low expectations are easy to beat, I think many will be surprised how well the EV works out for them, and word will get around
Give it another 5 years and that 300,000 - 400,000 miles 70% remaining range will turn into 400,000 - 500,000 miles 75%.
Yes a small number of batteries might experience a total failure, and it is hard to predict which ones will in advance, but that is just low expectations playing out as expected.
This is exactly why I want to hear about the ramp issues, because to me it doesn’t even make a lot of sense that such issues would exist when they already did the dang thing at Shanghai and it’s not like it’s a brand new vehicle or something.
It might be the ol’ chicken and the egg, there might not be a big push for them because Tesla has the order flows in real time and knows what they’d otherwise be ramping headfirst into. But of course am open to hearing other opinions, because my own angle is to question the underlying cause of any factory shutdown in a manufacturing company and knowing how manufacturing companies operate. When demand is popping and orders are flowing, there is no shutting down the lines. To the contrary, I’ve seen issues hit manufacturing lines and the company will cobble together whatever solutions they can to prevent bringing down the lines.
I had a phone interview with Northvolt a couple weeks ago to provide consulting services for their new gigafactory going up in Quebec
Model 3 Ludicrous may only be built in Fremont, that might have triggered additional engineering changes..
Shanghai had a lot of smaller shutdowns over a longer duration, which probably helped there..
There also seem to be some additional issue with white interiors and perhaps some other parts.
Shanghai and Fremont are not identical, this is why all Gen3 factories will be a cut-and-paste.
Shutdowns to refresh and improve the product are always worthwhile. Yes, mistakes were probably made and unexpected problems probably occurred. If they could have avoided that they would have.
Jim Farley's announcement said Ford will:
- Postpone the new Lightning (I read elsewhere it might get a new name) from late 2025 to 2026. This isn't a long delay, and given that this is a all-new vehicle to be built in a new factory campus now under construction, delay isn't a big surprise.
- Postpone a large 3-row electric SUV from 2025 to 2027. These will probably be expensive, with much less market potential than compact and medium size BEV SUV's. People buying a large SUV probably want ICE. This postponement doesn't seem very important.
- Add hybrid versions of all models. This is unfortunate back-sliding as opposed to charging ahead with EV's, but hybrids do use less fuel than straight ICE.
Ford continues work on its Blue Oval City to build EV's in Tennessee, and they're in the design stage of a new line of compact EV's.
Jim Farley has not announced an end to EV's at Ford.
OEM backsliding might be handing the market to Tesla, but Tesla needs to expand its product line to take good advantage. The Model 2 is key, along with CT ramping that enables more affordable versions. But we also need a mid-size SUV that's more market-friendly than the X, and work and passenger vans. IMO
- Postpone the new Lightning (I read elsewhere it might get a new name) from late 2025 to 2026. This isn't a long delay, and given that this is a all-new vehicle to be built in a new factory campus now under construction, delay isn't a big surprise.
- Postpone a large 3-row electric SUV from 2025 to 2027. These will probably be expensive, with much less market potential than compact and medium size BEV SUV's. People buying a large SUV probably want ICE. This postponement doesn't seem very important.
- Add hybrid versions of all models. This is unfortunate back-sliding as opposed to charging ahead with EV's, but hybrids do use less fuel than straight ICE.
Ford continues work on its Blue Oval City to build EV's in Tennessee, and they're in the design stage of a new line of compact EV's.
Jim Farley has not announced an end to EV's at Ford.
OEM backsliding might be handing the market to Tesla, but Tesla needs to expand its product line to take good advantage. The Model 2 is key, along with CT ramping that enables more affordable versions. But we also need a mid-size SUV that's more market-friendly than the X, and work and passenger vans. IMO
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If Ford announced total stoppage of EV plans, the stock would probably go to $20
If Tesla announced total stoppage of EV plans, the stock would also go to $20.
If Tesla announced total stoppage of EV plans, the stock would also go to $20.
Some people want a sedan rather than an SUV?
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
The industry association data is good, but it is for the whole state in aggregate and is not broken out by county, so it is much less useful for answering this particular question. County is strongly correlated with political and cultural demographics within California, which makes it the best proxy variable available, since we don’t have a public data set with demographic information on individual Tesla customers.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Interesting FSD pay per mile proposal. My immediate hesitation would be that, by charging per mile, it would disincent FSD usage. As opposed to charging unlimited usage per month for $200.
Drumheller
Active Member
10 cents per mile is 2000 miles to hit $200 in a month.
I’m seeing reports that FSD transfers are in play again for Q2, for all four models (sans Cybertruck). Intriguing, esp with the Model 3 Ludicrous seemingly about to hit.
Have not found a definitive from-Tesla source on this yet, though.
Have not found a definitive from-Tesla source on this yet, though.
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