As I see things:-
- Investing = long term horizon = low stress
- Speculation = short term horizon = high stress
- Tesla + Elon + Speculation = world of pain
Bulls are not claiming that Elon is perfect, merely that he is persistent.
He will attempt things that no one will try, and he can seem wrong for a very long time, before he is eventually right. should he be proven right, there is usually a big pay off, but that doesn't follow a fixed schedule, it happens when all problems are solved.
Occasionally he is wrong, it can take him a while to realise that but when he does, he admits it, and quickly pivots.
Elon will also make things seem like more of a drama than they really are, that is probably to pump himself up to throw a lot of time and energy at the problem. But if you are a short term speculator, he is usually going to say the exact opposite of what you want him to say.
My hunch is that the Robotaxi is being built via the unboxed method, there is not a big market in the US for a compact 2 seat or 4 seater vehicle. The IRA or any change of US government isn't a major factor.
The market for the compact cars is mainly EU, Asia South America and similar locations.
if the unboxed method works for the Robotaxi, it will work for other vehicle types, they haven't forgotten how to make cars.
The simplistic assumptions with the staff cuts is that 10% more resources are being allocated to FSD and everything else moves 10% slower. It is really X%, and X% might be a lot more than 10%.
We want to shorten the timeframe in which Elon is wrong, and we should be happy that resources are being allocated to shorten that timeframe.
Robotaxis should be rolling off the Austin production line around June 2025, so my guess is that Elon hopes everything else needed for a working Robotaxi fleet is ready by then.