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Per usual, reading comprehension seems to be an issue. Didn't want to include the part where I said, "Or the CEO misunderstood the economics of his own product." Hmmm, wonder why?

Read up on demand economics, it will explain a great many things to you.

Oh and you have quite the habit of cherry picking things in an attempt to paint specific arguments. Who cares about an old Musk tweet, dropping the price of FSD will increase adoption and bring in enough customers to more than compensate for the lower price, plus it creates even more training data to model on.

It's a win win for Tesla, you either don't understand or you don't care because its not supporting the argument you want to make.

You want to talk about reading comprehension, LOL!!!! 😂
 
Much though I enjoy, as an investor, Elon's attitude of focusing purely on the long term and ignoring bumps along the way, I do think in this position that I would put a team on the boring company vegas loop to get it to 100% driverless ASAP. I wonder if they are even running FSD12 on those cars now? It seems like it would be relatively trivial to do, and a good way to shut up some of the less-informed and whiny shortsellers.
But maybe its a deliberate decision NOT to do that? It would lead to press suggesting FSD only works in fixed tunnels? Still it seems like the boring company would love to reduce their labor bill by 90%?

I've always thought that FSD/Boring could eventually include use of both the tunnels and the streets.

Eventually, customers could call a Tesla from anywhere in Las Vegas and the network would have the option of street or tunnel to bring the customer to their destination quickly.

This could be implemented with a driver (as the tunnels are used now) and allow fine-tuning the network for user interface via the phone app, then go to full autonomy/Robotaxi when that time comes. It could accommodate private FSD (unsupervised) vehicles operating on the network as well, when that function is available.

The tunnel entrance/exit would be double-gated (like a security man-trap) to allow only cars operating on the Tesla network to access them with tailgating detection preventing unauthorized entry. Thus addressing the obvious concerns that would be raised about street access to the tunnels.

Vegas would make a good proving ground for all aspects of Full Autonomy/Robotaxi applications.
 
I don't follow...
$1,300*484,500 cars = $630 million / 10% = $6.3B initial labor cost. Total OpEx is only $2.4B so was production labor > $3.9B a quarter?

Total headcount was ~140k, 10% is 14k
$630 million / 14k = $45k / quarter or $180k average fully burdened annual salary. Seems high.
Most labour cost is buried in COGS. Only that not directly attributable to the making of the vehicle is covered in OpEx / R&D, etc. COGS was $17.5b last quarter.
 
Has anyone else seen this - I haven’t seen it posted.



It comes close to my current sentiments.

That up to now, Tesla has had a “Master Plan” involving more Gigafactories, more models, Semi production and the like. Recently they seem to be “thrashing around” with lack of focus and erratic pricing and policies and layoffs. Not to mention the optics surrounding the battle over Musk’s compensation package, and his controversial political posts on X which have alienated a lot of potential buyers.

As such, I’m no longer buying more shares for the time being. Though not yet so discouraged as to begin selling. Still, if Black and I are feeling this way, no wonder the stock price is falling.

Note: I’m prepared for a torrent of thumbs down - I’ve been getting my fair share lately anyway.
I strongly disagree about some of the stated facts, since he ignores distribution and seems to imply, incorrectly, that Tesla has nearly pure commodities so broad indiscriminate advertising fixes all. He disdains price cuts while wanting a cheaper car. Were he to have used responsible, diligent observation he might have reached the same conclusion (I did) but he’d probably then know when and how conditions could change to justify buying in again. I, for one, am looking carefully for positive indications of sound decisions regarding the elements I have described in my last post a few minutes ago.

The year is, and will be, a major challenge. It will define how Tesla will, or will not, thrive during the next half decade. Factually: product(I.e. designing, manufacturing), placement, positioning, pricing and people are all in flux. For those who did not take (or slept through) Marketing 101 those are the famous Five P’s. Note that advertising is not, NOT one of those. That is included in positioning but is only one component.
Sadly, nearly everyone who does not understand the sbject thinks that is THE issue.

For every TSLA holder and prospect, this year is the time when Tesla must grow up and adopt highly professional approaches to all these subjects. That us distinctly NOT appointing a “Marketing Director” who normally pushes advertising because that us where the perks are, that is where the big agencies devote their own efforts. Word of Mouth and Word of Wallet.

Just look to First Príncipes to see where the problems are: Placement and Positioning. FSD, even L5, cannot resolve those problems.
Lack of distribution and lack of support: those are the issues.

Production and Product itself is evolving nicely, although with near histrionic convolutions in the process.

Placement is really, really deficient.
 
Read up on demand economics, it will explain a great many things to you.

Oh and you have quite the habit of cherry picking things in an attempt to paint specific arguments. Who cares about an old Musk tweet, dropping the price of FSD will increase adoption and bring in enough customers to more than compensate for the lower price, plus it creates even more training data to model on.

It's a win win for Tesla, you either don't understand or you don't care because its not supporting the argument you want to make.

You want to talk about reading comprehension, LOL!!!! 😂

Indeed. Some people (such as Elon) are able to think critically and reassess decisions over time as new "data" is available. Other people, such as certain posters here, lack such critical thinking skills.
 
How can you say Waymo is the yardstick for autonomy? Their geo-fenced approach is completely different than the generalized solution Tesla is going for with FSD.

A better analogy would be Waymo is building a calculator while Tesla is building the Apple IIe computer. Would you call a calculator a "yardstick" for a computer? 🤔

Waymo is currently the yardstick for autonomy. Can their approach scale ? No. Commercially it’s probably a dead end. But the fact still remains that Tesla would have to reduce disengagements by an order of magnitude to match waymo.
 
Read up on demand economics, it will explain a great many things to you.
One needs to be very careful on this subject. All too often people misunderstand the reality that Price does matter greatly, it’s part of Positionng. So, for example: LVMH products do sell partly in price, that is High price is part of the product.
In cars: Both Ferrari and Porsche have for decades been highly successful in part through supply restrictions helping support high prices.

Demand economics, as a subject, tends to have excellent insight in relation to commodities. Take Lithium, for example. Absent substations equally effective price rapidly rise as battery demand rises. Once substitutes are perfected and more efficient extraction and refining happens prices plummet.

Cars are not commodities. Although pricing is very important, lower pricing is not always wise, sometimes higher pricing is more effective, With Tesla today there is a serious problem with pricing because ignorant people have convinced Tesla management that price is the primary demand lever. Many of us have foolishly promoted that fiction.

The net is that well meaning fools are bent on turning Tesla vehicles into commodities. Bad, auful news.
Models S and X should have been positioned as Premium, not directly sold on low price but on Premium Value. Add special included features like Premium Connectivity, FSD, special Concierge-style services. All that would have been cheaper and more effective than this Procing idiocy.

Listening to securities analysts and/or Bloggers is nearly certain to be wrong. None of them know anything at all about business, they do know how to generate clicks.

Sad, very sad, to see all this happening. After years trying to help avoid this outcome, here we are watching as FUD is displacing First Principles. I really hope this is not portending Xerox or Kodak, both of which were not prepared for change. Bizarrely Tesla is on the verge of ignoring First Principles by itself. We should all beg for adult, diligent solutions.
 
Indeed. Some people (such as Elon) are able to think critically and reassess decisions over time as new "data" is available. Other people, such as certain posters here, lack such critical thinking skills.
This is a superb example of absence of critical thinking. Reducing price on FSD is really a waste. It could and should be a Premium feature. Reducing the price of a fundamentally revolutionary product actually diminishes the perceived value. The idiotic idea that a revolutionary product is linearly price sensitive is simply a foolish waste of revenue. I am appalled! Allowing transferability was a great idea, incentivizing without diminishing value. Flat out price reductions? In a word: WRONG!

Tesla could have taken advice from Bernard Arnault but instead is turning to Juan Ricardo Luciano or, even worse Crazy Eddie.
This one is the most value-destructive decision yet. Made because idiots equated FSD, the Premium Producr of decades, with a commodity.

With this latest move I am shocked! There is no coming back from this one…
 
Tesla Master Plan Part 3 was released on 4/5/2023:
Source: https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf

Screenshot 2024-04-21 at 7.44.11 AM.png


A year, to the date between 2023 and 2024, FSD goes live past Beta and into a free-trial for all vehicle customers. Based on Master Plan Part 3, what unlocks (or is a gating factor for) the remaining two cars that, likely, won't have a steering wheel? FSD.

How about TSLA? The stock trades at basically a little under 0% gain y-o-y during this period in time. I wonder if the next leg up is just uncertainty about how well Master Plan Part 3 is going to work out based on another bet-the-company moment (the last one was the Model 3 btw) in regards to FSD and all future vehicle models to fit into Master Plan Part 3.
 
Much though I enjoy, as an investor, Elon's attitude of focusing purely on the long term and ignoring bumps along the way, I do think in this position that I would put a team on the boring company vegas loop to get it to 100% driverless ASAP. I wonder if they are even running FSD12 on those cars now? It seems like it would be relatively trivial to do, and a good way to shut up some of the less-informed and whiny shortsellers.
But maybe its a deliberate decision NOT to do that? It would lead to press suggesting FSD only works in fixed tunnels? Still it seems like the boring company would love to reduce their labor bill by 90%?
I thought the hold up was the Vegas city council. Until they allow driverless in the tunnels it won't happen. I'm sure the Boring company is working on this, but city councils are notorious for not embracing new technology.
 
So let's say it turns out the HW3 vehicles are never able to be used as robotaxis. Is Tesla open to a class action lawsuit?

Well, they could try. But Tesla never put any robotaxi promise in writing. They would have to argue that Elon's public pronouncements constitute a verbal contract. And we all know how the courts treat the enforceability of verbal contracts.

Of course, Tesla could continue to say that they believe HW3 robotaxis will happen some day. Then the plaintiffs would also have to argue that the verbal contract contained a time element, which even Elon never stated with certainty.

The class action suit would go nowhere, IMO.
It is interesting that at the same time Tesla investors argue, that people should not believe what Musk says, but yet at the same time those investors themselves believe what Musk says 🤔
 
And thats when I finally give up and put you on ignore, because anyone who thinks FSD is not getting closer is either blind, or a shortseller desperately clinging to alternative reality. There is such a thing as X. Go look at the first 50 FSD 12 videos you find. Then tell yourself its getting further away.
FSD updates now every 10 days, people raving about it, zero-intervention drive numbers skyrocketing. However inconvenient it may be for people who sold or now short the stock, FSD is happening.
Elon has said that FSD’s price increases as it gets better.
 
Screenshot 2024-04-21 at 8.13.25 AM.png


Lots of super interesting tidbits (sustainability related and investment world) in the Knight Frank Wealth Report in 2024 that just got published:

 
Elon has said that FSD’s price increases as it gets better.

True, but the price was already high for what the capabilities were pre-V12. The recent price decrease IMO is a price reset, intended to convince people that they want supervised FSD. I am pretty sure that unsupervised FSD will dramatically increase in price.
 
This is a superb example of absence of critical thinking. Reducing price on FSD is really a waste. It could and should be a Premium feature. Reducing the price of a fundamentally revolutionary product actually diminishes the perceived value. The idiotic idea that a revolutionary product is linearly price sensitive is simply a foolish waste of revenue. I am appalled! Allowing transferability was a great idea, incentivizing without diminishing value. Flat out price reductions? In a word: WRONG!

Tesla could have taken advice from Bernard Arnault but instead is turning to Juan Ricardo Luciano or, even worse Crazy Eddie.
This one is the most value-destructive decision yet. Made because idiots equated FSD, the Premium Producr of decades, with a commodity.

With this latest move I am shocked! There is no coming back from this one…

I didn't give you a thumbs down but I disagree with you 100% on FSD pricing.

Elon wants FSD usage to be widespread, that can not happen if its pricing is stratospheric. For mass market adoption it needs to be both useful and affordable too, if it's priced to high it will be a niche product only the wealthy can enjoy. That is not in keeping with Tesla's mission.

Price drops on FSD had to happen eventually if it was ever to become a high volume product, and I'm glad to see it so soon. I've always questioned the uber bulls who predicted FSD being worth six figures per customer and generating hundreds of billions of dollars in profit, that always seemed unrealistic to me.
 
Screenshot 2024-04-21 at 8.20.28 AM.png


Source: Page 70 for the report published here

 
Waymo is currently the yardstick for autonomy. Can their approach scale ? No. Commercially it’s probably a dead end. But the fact still remains that Tesla would have to reduce disengagements by an order of magnitude to match waymo.

You have access to both Tesla and Waymo's disengagement count? Post it up!

Waymo have people supervising their cars that routinely take over control, don't they?
 
You have access to both Tesla and Waymo's disengagement count? Post it up!

Waymo have people supervising their cars that routinely take over control, don't they?


Looks like Waymo is 1 every 17k miles now.