Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

My understanding is that Safety Score is turned off (or at 100%) whenever FSD is used.

If so, 100% FSD use would provide a score for the lowest insurance rate then.

 

[capster]

I have a theory about what is going on with the affordable compact Tesla car. For arguments sake lets call this car the Model 2, or the M2. Even though we know that will not be the name its easy and convenient to call it that (for now).

We now know a hybrid version of the M2 is coming, a mix of the current Gen2 designs (M3 & MY) and the upcoming unboxed design (the RT and what was going to be the M2). Lets call this hybrid design the Model 2.5, or M2.5.

Tesla said the release timeline of the affordable car has been accelerated. Before it was slated to release late 2025, so this new M2.5 will likely go into production in early 2025. But it won't be the new unboxed production line, its going to be made on existing M3 & MY lines alongside Gen2 cars, yet it will have some design qualities of what was going to be the unboxed M2.

My theory is this new M2.5 will release alongside the Juniper refreshed MY and both versions will have qualities of the unboxed design (RT). For example, steer by wire and 48v architecture, things which the CT also adopted from the unboxed design.

My hunch is the M2.5 will be a downgraded version of the MY+, with differences like these possibly:

- MY+ has new ventilated seats, M2.5 does not
- MY+ keeps heated seats and steering wheel, M2.5 does not have them
- MY+ has rear passenger LCD screen like the M3+ has now, M2.5 would not
- MY+ keeps the current motors or maybe even upgraded motors, M2.5 has lower power and cheaper motors and is slower
- In face M2.5 might come RWD only with one motor
- MY+ keeps current 82kWh battery pack and range, M2.5 has slightly smaller LFP pack with less range, maybe 220 to 250 miles
- MY+ has the interior light strips the CT and M3+ have now, M2.5 does not
- MY+ keeps powered liftgate, M2.5 has manual liftgate

This is what I think we might be seeing. A downgraded MY to fill the affordable car gap in the lineup. Rather than spend the money to build the true M2 on the new unboxed line in Austin they've decided to build a new cheaper version of the MY on the future Juniper MY lines as a new variant, to sell at a much reduced price. I also think we'll see a similar reduced M3 version on the Highland M3 lines too, with similar changes as I listed above.

This approach both utilizes existing lines to expand production higher, while also allowing the new Gen3 unboxed production line to be dedicated 100% to RT's, one model only, no variations, thereby greatly simplifying RT production and reducing costs.

Part of my thinking here is I do feel its unrealistic to expect Tesla to build a new unboxed design on the existing M3 & MY lines, these just aren't compatible manufacturing processes. I also don't think they've designed an entirely new hybrid unboxed / old car design in such a short timeframe. I feel its much more realistic we'll see them use current M3 & MY designs to downgrade into cheaper variants instead, especially given how soon this new M2.5 is expected to go into production.

Just my two cents. We'll know in a year or so for certain.

I’ll take the other side wrt your position (again): The new consumer vehicle off the existing lines won’t be a decontented Y (or 3).

 

[unk45]

...

The Volvo EX-30 is the real target, and use the not-Chinese advantage.

...

FWIW EX30 production in Ghent is scheduled for next year. Now it is Chinese only. It seems they're having major success with this. All three Geely's on this platform appear to be headed for success:

Volvo EX30, Zeekr X or Smart #1: which Geely EV should you have? - Techzle

Three times SEA2 The Chinese car giant Geely was already very busy in Europe with Volvo, Polestar and Lynk & Co, among others, but is now going full steam ahead. The Volvo EX30, Zeekr X and Smart #1 share the same platform and all show great promise, but how do the three actually relate? An …

techzle.com

These are each slotted neatly a little below Model Y, but are likely to be non-FSD competitors of the new Teslas. I'll wager they'll all be highly influential, driving the 'EV built on ICE platform' crowd a bit crazy.
They'll not show up in the US soon, but...they're coming and Tesla might beat them to US market.

 

[capster]

And Ron Baron said SpaceX (or Starlink) IPO in 2027? That's the biggest news in the interview, on top of all the bullishness in Tesla and Spacex.

Oh, I do hope long term Tesla shareholders will get early access.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If so, 100% FSD use would provide a score for the lowest insurance rate then.

Indeed, FSD should be bundled with Tesla insurance in those jurisdictions in which it is available.

 

[gillfoto]

I feel like every time I see the stock turn green on the minute, someone in New York just discovered FSD V12.

I need some whimsical saying... Something like "See a firefly, feel the magic!"

Hey Chat...

1. Engage Tesla FSD, set your destination to the stars!
2. Activate autopilot, steer towards your dreams!
3. As Tesla learns the road, you learn to explore!
4. With every update, a new journey begins!
5. Let Tesla lead the way, and adventure will follow!

FSD V12 is borderline 'Magic', an unreal experience feels like your living in the 'Future'. First time user with free month trial; don't need it right now, in maybe in a few years but I could see us renting out our MYs as Robotaxis soon.

 

[jschwefel]

Just stopped by the service center in Indy. Quite a few Cybertrucks on the lot; I don’t know if they were delivering or holding them for the pedal issue. The highest VIN I saw was over 7800.

 

[AndrewZ]

Hopefully cars on boats explains much of the low delivery numbers for Q1 and that Q2 will be better. (See thread.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783080267000782919

Has Tesla not had cars on boats before, and does this mean there will be no cars on boats in Q2?

 

[jkirkwood001]

Virtue signalling is the right word to use - but I don't put that on "the general public" primarily - the elite here are far far worse... They kind of lead the way. If merely raising taxes was enough to secure our descendents' futures, I'd be happy to pay. But my taxes go to crony capitalism (freaking SNC Lavalin still gets gov't contracts), which is the absolute worst form of capitalism. When "consultants" make millions of government dollars for being connected to the right parties but contribute nothing, and when we make a big show of taxing oil and gas but then make exceptions to buy votes in one part of the country while at the same time give far more back in subsidies to those same companies making record profits, I'm just not willing to pretend that our taxes are helping anyone but those in power and their friends. It's been one big virtue signalling show for over a decade now. In 2022 our dear leader spent 20+ times more jet fuel emissions in one month than the average Canadian's annual rate for all emissions (including heating, electricity and transportation).

I started investing in Tesla because of the vision (and expected to lose 100% of my investment in the early years), but I remain invested because they look at sustainability in multiple ways - and fiscal responsibility is absolutely one key component. They don't just throw millions at problems, but they continually look for ways to reduce expenses while hopefully improving products over the long run (and are willing to take short term hits - which many consumers don't like - I get it, it's a tough model to force clients to have patience). They're not perfect, but there is an effort and direction that I appreciate.

Edit: I'm not opposed to carbon tax in principle, but I'm opposed to the way it's being implemented in Canada, as a sleight of hand to pretend to address climate change when we're still literally giving handouts to the polluters.

Good points.

Does every dollar in carbon tax go to a cause or program you and I believe in? No, of course not.
Is the only (Cdn.) party that supports a carbon tax the only good party? No, of course not (besides, the Green Party also supports a carbon tax).

I've consulted for our federal government, four provincial governments (our States), and several municipal government besides many private sector (and nonprofit) clients in the US, Canada and abroad, and I can say from experience that the public sector clients "waste" more money than the private sector by far. Or at least, they pay extra to remain highly risk averse (like NASA was before SpaceX) or wish to appear (politically) correct. Nevertheless, that doesn't mean I prefer anarchy! Running a company keeps your stakeholders very limited. Running a government means working for the wants and needs of minorities as well as the majority, so I don't think it's a reasonable comparison to say a government should be run like Tesla.

Back to @cliff harris ' original point, I think we still have a lot more pulling of many populations towards sustainability than there are populations pushing their governments for greater action (aka cost) towards sustainable policies.

Personally I'd be happy if our governments simply stopped spending taxes incentivizing citizens to buy electric cars (and solar panels, heat pumps, etc.) and instead would just stop protecting the oil & gas sector from progress! Like, seriously, Exxon + Shell + Chevron + BP made $159 billion dollars in profit last year?!? Big Oil needs to pay for the damage they're doing to you, me, our families & friends, and future generations across the planet. [/rant]

 

[madodel]

Ron Baron is always a great interview.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783488993159422031

About time we hit a bottom. I'm running out of millions to lose.

 

[jerry33]

If so, 100% FSD use would provide a score for the lowest insurance rate then.

That is my understanding. Tesla is encouraging the use of FSD. Now if only their insurance was priced lower than my current insurance.

 

[Favguy]

About time we hit a bottom. I'm running out of millions to lose.

I know exactly what you mean, looking at my holding value now compared to it's value at ATH a couple of years ago, I could get quite upset if I was that way inclined.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

About time we hit a bottom. I'm running out of millions to lose.

What's a few millions between friends? I look at it as a loan that will be repaid with a hefty interest rate eventually.

 

[Mike Smith]

Hertz selling their FSD capable Tesla fleet could go down as one of the dumbest business moves of all time. The other car rental companies not buying one now could go down as another.

 

[NicoV]

Hertz selling their FSD capable Tesla fleet could go down as one of the dumbest business moves of all time. The other car rental companies not buying one now could go down as another.

Their fleet may be FSD capable, but they do not have the right to use them as robotaxi.

 

[MD70]

Hopefully cars on boats explains much of the low delivery numbers for Q1 and that Q2 will be better. (See thread.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783080267000782919

Previously the excuse was high interest rates for the slowdown in sales and now this.
The Y is available and sitting in lots with no buyers.
First part of dealing with a problem is acknowledging it. Either he knows the truth and can’t face reality or he doesn’t.
Either way not good for the business.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Not snark. it seems to me they can and might achieve quite major decreases in Capex for the new vehicle(s) while simultaneously reducing manufacturing costs by a combination of GigaCasting and even more extensive modularization as in Model Y already. Combining those with already in production rare earth content in motors and vastly cheaper batteries (whether 4680 or not, battery component costs are continuing their slide.

Considering what we already know it seems quite likely that this will actually deliver something amazing.
Will it be enough? Will margins be high enough? Will FSD actually deliver with it? Will there be a small van, SUV versions? What will be RT? Right now we simply do not know. Sometime quite soon we probably will know.

It could be a re-use of 3/y parts for a smaller vehicle, like a hatch-back. There are so many technologies we have not seen yet. Like a PM motor that does _not_ use rare-earth magnets. Might have lower performance, but also lower cost. In a lot of cases, equipment is already paid-for, so better operating leverage via higher utilization. Focus, Cruze, Dart, abandoned by the big 3 left a niche of simple commuters. Having had enjoyed donuts in a 66hp electric rwd, even low hp electric are still plenty fun, even if they won't have performance of Model 3.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Previously the excuse was high interest rates for the slowdown in sales and now this.
The Y is available and sitting in lots with no buyers.
First part of dealing with a problem is acknowledging it. Either he knows the truth and can’t face reality or he doesn’t.
Either way not good for the business.

The truth probably lays somewhere in between. We'll know more as Q2 progresses.

 

[Musskiah]

Nobody else is doing anything other than sampling 4680s yet.

That's false. Just one example, simply search "CATL 4680 Qilin" and you will see they have been mass producing the form factor in meaningful quantities since last year. One of many links you will find in this regard... CATL begins mass production of its Qilin batteries with 13% more power than other 4680 cells

However, it seems Tesla is about to undercut the 4680 competition, just when everyone was trash talking the 4680 program... Tesla expects its 4680 battery cells to be cheaper than suppliers by end of year

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That Ron Baron CNBC interview today, i do not think i have ever seen RB so excited about Tesla in a long time. He is normally really mellow and even key but he seemed to have an excitement talking bout RoboTaxis today! Bullish!