Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doggydogworld]

They are not entering any new markets or developing any new models.

They're developing new models or least variants on the 3/Y platform. I suspect Tom Zhu is heading this up in China, where things happen faster (and cheaper). I don't think Elon is really involved. And that's a good thing....

As soon as tesla makes them supercharger compatible Tesla will lose sales like crazy.

Supercharger access is only an issue in the tiny US market. I expect Elon to half-renege, anyway.

"In 2020, Elon Musk stated that by the end of the decade, Tesla would be selling 20 million vehicles annually, doubling Toyota's output, the largest car manufacturer in the world."

For a few years Tesla's Annual Impact Report stated 20m in 2030. It was not in the new one just released. That plus removal of the earnings report 50% growth guidance makes it pretty clear Tesla's focus has changed. I think 3m in 2030 is too low. Elon believes they can deploy 10+ million Robotaxis a year. If that doesn't pan out he'll adjust.

"BYD on May 28 launched cheap, new hybrid electric vehicles capable of traveling 1,300 miles without recharging or refueling — opening a new front in the EV wars

Prius went 1400 miles on a single tank two decades ago. Gas range is irrelevant -- gas stations are everywhere and refueling only takes a few minutes.

 

[keydiver]

I live in palm beach county, that is precisely what I get quoted from 3 different solar installers.
I am taking a pass on it.

I am just north of you, and the Tesla configurator recommended an 11+kW system with 1 Powerwall for $27,000, or $19,000 after the 30% tax credit. I forgot they only sell systems with a Powerwall now. But still, after the tax credit, it's <$2/watt, including a Powerwall! I agree, most solar guys are still quoting ridiculous prices, as if the panels haven't dropped to a fraction of the price. But, of course, it is Palm Beach County, so I'm sure they still find enough customers even at their high costs. Just my 3 Powerwalls alone (2+ model) cost me about $25,000 a few years ago. This new Powerwall 3 with the solar inverter built in has really knocked down the price.

 

[keydiver]

It's not just for charging. My wife and I use streaming in our Tesla all the time. When we get food from a takeout or drive thru, we prefer to eat in the privacy and comfort of our Tesla. We have these nice trays from Jowua:

I have a "Dining" profile that retracts the steering wheel and moves my seat back.

We eat and enjoy the streaming. Can you even do this in any other make of car?

Nice trays! Dinner and a movie? Love it! I stream Youtube videos and movies all the time while waiting in the car for my wife when she is shopping. Also, we do the same as you, put on a short video after we pick up breakfast at a drive thru. Definitely worth the $99/year to me.

 

[MC3OZ]

Hybrids are hot, eh, selling more than pure gas/diesel cars?

Have you looked at the available new cars recently?

Here in europe THERE ARE NO PURE GAS/DIESEL CARS FOR SALE. Only hybrids or EVs.

well if you really looked there may be some occasional model. But hybrid version will be cheaper because of taxes.

Its really a silly statistic to claim that hybrids are hot.

Oh EV sales are steadily taking more market share here, most countries are around 30-40% EV. Sweden is at 60%, Norway over 80%>

Sometimes customers end up buying a car the carmakers need to sell, rather than what is best for that customer.

Many car companies need to sell hybrids rather than EVs at present ,and it is still possible to convince some customers to buy a hybrid.

After owning a hybrid for 5 years, and talking to their neighbour who owns an EV, it will be much harder to convince that customer to buy a hybrid next time around.

 

[MC3OZ]

I stream Youtube videos and movies all the time while waiting in the car for my wife when she is shopping.

You have probably got enough time to binge watch one of those Netflix series...

 

[aubreymcfato]

Re Semi factory, we'll know soon enough their progress:

I think things have slowed down for the factory, but that doesn't mean it's canceled.
Even a hand-assembled line would be meaningful, as numbers can be low: just thousands per year could eat up meaningful market share. These are the stats of truck sales for the last 20 years (the Semi is supposed to be class 8):

And we know from earnings calls and news that progress with Semi has been slow (too slow) but steady. Just a week ago they delivered a dozen to customers.
I'm eager than most to see the Semi happening, I still have not lost faith.

 

[WattsHappening]

China numbers in for last week.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797893582441025966

 

[Unpilot]

Just so you/everyone know, Tesla already walked back the 20 million (not 10) goal by 2030 about a week ago:
MSN

This is what could best be called "an opinion" piece. It is full of Elon hate.

Just don't put too much stock into things stated, be doubtful

So maybe follow your own advice.
Even when it is a negative article about Tesla....you might just doubt its intent.

 

[Snerruc]

We'll have to see how it really performs on real non-company testing, and not stupid, crazy hyper mile-ing, but yeah, anyone can load up an EV with say, 1000 kWh battery and it will go further, but it's a cost/weight/thing too. One thing I've noticed here is anything that shows anything positive from anyone else not Tesla is bad, no one wants it, etc. 1200 miles on a tank is impressive if it's real. No need to downplay or hate the competition. Not everyone wants an EV (and I'm an EV owner) and even though no bulls would buy anything but a Tesla, it's good to not bury one's head in the sand and think no one can do anything great or "other" people not named you may be ok with getting gas maybe once a month rather than weekly. Again, the majority of people don't care about the climate debate nor have any agenda to love/hate Tesla or EVs.

Good range means for the common person, they don't have to get gas, or only fill up after a few weeks, maybe a month if they aren't heavy drivers, If you don't commute much and drive a 100 miles a month, you get gas once a year?

As for the article, Tesla is always under a microscope and we all know this, especially on this forum. If Elon come's out with a comment that they will make 20 million cars by early 2030, and all reports now show it's been removed, it'll definitely be seen as a walk back. Here is an article from 2022:

https://insideevs.com/news/575989/tesla-20-million-evs-early-2030s/

Musk:
"I think it's aggressive, but not impossible, that we could do 20 million cars in 10 years. And that would be a good number because there's 2 billion cars and trucks in the world that are in active use, so 20 million would be then 1 percent of the global fleet per year."

You can read it for whatever you want as we're all biased. I have doubts they will hit 20 million a year since growth for EVs has slowed, interest rates are high, and Q1 was a drop in sales. Even if flat, they would need insane numbers to get to 20 million, again, PER year, every year.

Hmmm……If this quote from Mr Musk is accurate, he never said 20 million a year. HE SAID 20MILLION IN TEN YEARS, or 2,000,000 a year.

 

[Zero CO2]

I feel a dying gasp coming for our bears/trolls with all the hybrids talk .. give me a break with the hybrids talk , Hybrids are nothing more than lipstick on a pig ... D student automotive engineers work on hybrids ... hybrids are camels designed by a supply chain manager looking to get rid of excess parts due to bad purchase agreements. We can thank the unnecessary Inflation Reduction Act funding for all the hybrids ...Legacy OEM cant make a profit on EV .. slap a small battery on an ICE vehicle and you can get IRA credits ... what a joke

 

[SO16]

China numbers in for last week.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797893582441025966

Now China YTD is only down 3.1% from last year. Gap is closing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797901791331541484

 

[ggies07]

I feel a dying gasp coming for our bears/trolls with all the hybrids talk .. give me a break with the hybrids talk , Hybrids are nothing more than lipstick on a pig ... D student automotive engineers work on hybrids ... hybrids are camels designed by a supply chain manager looking to get rid of excess parts due to bad purchase agreements. We can thank the unnecessary Inflation Reduction Act funding for all the hybrids ...Legacy OEM cant make a profit on EV .. slap a small battery on an ICE vehicle and you can get IRA credits ... what a joke

Seriously. Before 2012, I always thought it was going to be ICE -> Hybrid -> EV. But then Tesla comes along and leap frogs the hybrid...the only thing the hybrid represents to me at this point is that if you are selling one, you can't play the EV game.

 

[Drax7]

I am just north of you, and the Tesla configurator recommended an 11+kW system with 1 Powerwall for $27,000, or $19,000 after the 30% tax credit. I forgot they only sell systems with a Powerwall now. But still, after the tax credit, it's <$2/watt, including a Powerwall! I agree, most solar guys are still quoting ridiculous prices, as if the panels haven't dropped to a fraction of the price. But, of course, it is Palm Beach County, so I'm sure they still find enough customers even at their high costs. Just my 3 Powerwalls alone (2+ model) cost me about $25,000 a few years ago. This new Powerwall 3 with the solar inverter built in has really knocked down the price.

Tesla solar told me they don’t to flat roofs. I find that odd.

 

[mongo]

Tesla solar told me they don’t to flat roofs. I find that odd.

Solar Roof relies on full coverage peel and stick ice dam barrier for the actual waterproofing. Installation on a flat roof would require expertise in EPDM style membrane applications along with needing all fasteners to be 100% leak proof through that non-self sealing surface.

Additionally, it would result in the tiles being basically horizontal (minus overlap induced angle) which isn't optimal for most regions.

 

[FielderJones]

Tesla solar told me they don’t to flat roofs. I find that odd.

There are two types of flat roofs — ones that leak and ones that are going to leak.

 

[AnbaricBike]

Solar Roof relies on full coverage peel and stick ice dam barrier for the actual waterproofing. Installation on a flat roof would require expertise in EPDM style membrane applications along with needing all fasteners to be 100% leak proof through that non-self sealing surface.

Additionally, it would result in the tiles being basically horizontal (minus overlap induced angle) which isn't optimal for most regions.

I think maybe the reference was to regular solar modules. Flat roof usually just gets a ballasted system. No penetration required. I guess Tesla doesn't want to mess with concrete bricks.

 

[AnbaricBike]

There are two types of flat roofs — ones that leak and ones that are going to leak.

I feel the same way about sunroofs on cars.

 

[mongo]

I think maybe the reference was to regular solar modules. Flat roof usually just gets a ballasted system. No penetration required. I guess Tesla doesn't want to mess with concrete bricks.

Ah, that would require a roof structure overbuilt enough to support the additional ballast load.
They've done that at SpaceX, Gigas, and Solar City dud Walmart, but residential may be a different beast.

 

[dhrivnak]

I feel a dying gasp coming for our bears/trolls with all the hybrids talk .. give me a break with the hybrids talk , Hybrids are nothing more than lipstick on a pig ... D student automotive engineers work on hybrids ... hybrids are camels designed by a supply chain manager looking to get rid of excess parts due to bad purchase agreements. We can thank the unnecessary Inflation Reduction Act funding for all the hybrids ...Legacy OEM cant make a profit on EV .. slap a small battery on an ICE vehicle and you can get IRA credits ... what a joke

For my hybrids have a place, a small place, but we like towing a small camper and preferer National Parks and National Forests where the nearest plug can be 30+ miles away. Our RAV4 Prime fits the bill nicely. If we have power we plug in and get some 40 miles of EV range for touring around. Otherwise we burn some gas. At home we can go months as virtually all trips are within 40 miles. Now if the USA were like Eastern Canada with plenty of L2 charging at parks, with some plugs even at popular trail heads, you might be able to make an EV work. But not with US parks. And yes I know some parks have chargers, but normally they are few and far between and definitely not by trails.

 

[Don TLR]

Tesla solar told me they don’t to flat roofs. I find that odd.

Tesla told me that when I ordered my powerwalls, the powerwall installer team tells me Tesla has a flat roof team. So I had to get them to come out and do my install, a bit of a pain but happy in the end.