Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

still not sure how they did that, look forward to hearing about it

I haven't dug into it recently, but in the past the most likely way was fleet wide averaging of material components, so a few ways to go into that

If they forecast huge sales of Performance 3, that could be a way since it uses US made cells, but as we discussed earlier, it doesn't seem like Tesla/Panasonic has the spare production to do that

Another way would be to shuffle the Panasonic and LG packs between 3 and Y, that would suck for Y buyers and good for 3 buyers since Panasonic chargers considerably faster, but would be random chance which one you get, if we get a range readjustment on the Y soon it would point to that, and all would be 78 kWh pack, software locked on the Y

 

[Knightshade]

That makes 2 agile responses to market conditions recently. Getting the Model 3 back under the US tax credits (still not sure how they did that, look forward to hearing about it),

FWIW I've seen two competing theories on this (and a third that made no sense involving US sourcing of imaginary stuff with no obvious source)--- the two are:


May 3 the IRS rules on sourcing from China changed a bit- some thing this allows the Korean LG cells using Chinese materials (what has been going into the LR AWD 3 in the US) to qualify- and it took Tesla a bit of time/paperwork to get this certified thus the ~6 week delay in announcing it qualifies.

vs

Y sales have pulled back to the point they have spare Nevada/Panasonic 2170s to go into LR AWD 3s (this is what Troy said he believes is true based on the vehicle sales data vs known GFNV cell production info he has FWIW)



If it's the first then the credit should be retroactively applicable to some already sold cars (at least those built since May 3-- possibly those since Jan 1 as we saw last year when they surprisingly got the LFP cars to qualify mid-year and it was retroactive)

If it's the second then the credit would only apply to "new" cars built with Nevada cells (which SHOULD be discernable both by the lack of any retroactivity and the fact the energy content and charge curves are slightly different between LG and Pana based packs)

 

[dhrivnak]

If true, this is huge:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1802752042034663685

Edit: looks like it's on the order site now too! Wow.

Very cool. Now I thought Elon said Tesla would allow FSD transfer through September. If true I think I will bite.

 

[MP3Mike]

Very cool. Now I thought Elon said Tesla would allow FSD transfer through September. If true I think I will bite.

He only said "one more quarter". He didn't say which quarter.

 

[wtlloyd]

All true, but strictly speaking, Elon was not a part of Telsa when it was started/incorporated.

He was a very early major investor, and absolutely did all the things you mentioned. As part of the legal process involved in addressing the mis-management and dismissal of the initial CEO, they legally agreed to whom would be referred to as "Founders".

So Elon is indeed considered a Founder. He also joined shortly after the company was started.

All pedantically true, but 'cmon, man, are you in this cult with us or not?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Meh. 129B of that 149B is Ford Motor Credit.

Yes, and non-recourse to Ford itself. To be fair, a bunch of the 127b current assets I mentioned are also in Ford Motor Credit. I'm not recommending F as an investment, just pointing out that TSLA's 50b current assets don't rule out a 50b market cap. Heck, AAPL briefly traded below cash just before launching the iPod.

 

[GhostSkater]

All arguments against Tesla have been nullified, God himself is on our side

https://twitter.com/x/status/1803076105181499510

 

[EVMeister]

All arguments against Tesla have been nullified, God himself is in our side

https://twitter.com/x/status/1803076105181499510

Wonder if he still holds it? That interview was from 2016.

 

[indysurfer]

Wonder if he still holds it? That interview was from 2016.

He would be even a richer man than he is now if he still holds TSLA stock he had from 2016.

 

[RubberToe]

Fisker == Chapter 11

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FSRN?qsearchterm=fisker

I think Tesla is a better run company. That's my $0.02 worth...

 

[freakdahouse]

Fisker == Chapter 11

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FSRN?qsearchterm=fisker

View attachment 1057552

I think Tesla is a better run company. That's my $0.02 worth...

i think everyone who saw that karaoke presention from fisker knew what was going to happen...

 

[GatorMeat]

This again? When Musk came along to join Tesla instead of starting his own company with J.B. Straubel, the Tesla brain trust was looking into sourcing battery packs from a barbeque manufacturer in...Vietnam. The existing plan to convert Lotus Elise cars to electric was an endless self-defeating loop. The final straw was when it was discovered that the existing president was hiding and misrepresenting financial information.
Essentially, Musk took mud pie and turned it into peach pie.
Now tell me how it was actually Fisker who created the Model S.

You are missing the point. No other billionaire founder needed to be 'bribed' with billions of new dollars in shares to show up to work. They were all properly motivated to grow their own creations and their boards didn't have to advertise to influence shareholders to vote for an insane amount of compensation. Maybe because it's not really Elon's baby, but it's adopted is why he needs billions more to continue? Next we will be scared into voting to give him trillions? Why didn't Zuck, Bezos, Gates, Huang threaten shareholders for more billions or they'd take their ball and go home?

 

[insaneoctane]

Pretty surprising that Ford & GM are missing from the top-10 "most American" list...

The 2024 top 10 in order were: Telsa Model Y, Honda Passport, Volkswagen ID.4, Tesla Model S, Honda Odyssey, Honda Ridgeline, Toyota Camry, Jeep Gladiator, Tesla Model X, and Lexus TX.

Article likely behind paywall...

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-most-american-car-japan-0867a13e

 

[scaesare]

You are missing the point. No other billionaire founder needed to be 'bribed' with billions of new dollars in shares to show up to work. They were all properly motivated to grow their own creations and their boards didn't have to advertise to influence shareholders to vote for an insane amount of compensation. Maybe because it's not really Elon's baby, but it's adopted is why he needs billions more to continue? Next we will be scared into voting to give him trillions? Why didn't Zuck, Bezos, Gates, Huang threaten shareholders for more billions or they'd take their ball and go home?

You are using present tense. You do realize, as has been covered here, that he already showed up for work. And accomplished the things the compensation was based upon, right? Past tense.

As for dedication in growing the company, you are aware of the dire situation(s) the company was in while Musk was sleeping on a couches (if he had a chance to sleep at all), all the while with no guarantees of anything, aren't you?

If not, I suggest looking up the Christmas imminent bankruptcy situation.

 

[unk45]

i think everyone who saw that karaoke presention from fisker knew what was going to happen...

All we needed to know is the name. Check out his other attempts for reference.
The question is only why investors support a serial failure.
Reference to a certain politician is not intended.

 

[sunwarriors]

You are using present tense. You do realize, as has been covered here, that he already showed up for work. And accomplished the things the compensation was based upon, right? Past tense.

As for dedication in growing the company, you are aware of the dire situation(s) the company was in while Musk was sleeping on a couches (if he had a chance to sleep at all), all the while with no guarantees of anything, aren't you?

If not, I suggest looking up the Christmas imminent bankruptcy situation.

Didn't he already own 20%+ back in 2018? Shouldn't that be motivating enough financially for him (or anyone) to work his butt off (as every single other massive shareowners are in)?

Here is an old press release from 2018. I know some of us disagree on this, but I simply don't think early/near founders need to be compensated in this way which dilutes other shareholders (to the tune of 10% which is insane for anyone, even if not named Elon). I suppose it's good that I am not an individual TSLA stock owner, but I do own it in various index/retirement. Guess it's nice if so many feel he needs that much more $$ to work hard (with his 5 other companies). I simply don't agree with it. I also never "believe" he will not move AI out of Tesla when he has a company called xAi (started in 2023). He could have simply built that within Tesla to benefit all existing shareholders (which he needs now to spend "some" time on as well to build up.

Tesla Investor Relations

PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 23, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla today announced a new 10-year CEO performance award for Elon Musk with vesting entirely contingent on achieving market cap and operational milestones that would make Tesla one of the most valuable companies in the world.

ir.tesla.com

 

[Musskiah]

You are missing the point. No other billionaire founder needed to be 'bribed' with billions of new dollars in shares to show up to work. They were all properly motivated to grow their own creations and their boards didn't have to advertise to influence shareholders to vote for an insane amount of compensation. Maybe because it's not really Elon's baby, but it's adopted is why he needs billions more to continue? Next we will be scared into voting to give him trillions? Why didn't Zuck, Bezos, Gates, Huang threaten shareholders for more billions or they'd take their ball and go home?

Neither Zucksskiah, Bezsskiah, Gatesskiah, nor Huangskiah have the same ring to it. There is only one...

 

[cliff harris]

I'm less excited about the bot than I am by the Tesla semi and whatever gets revealed on 8/8. Also the rollout of FSD to china (which looks quite close now, judging from recent reports) and then to Europe.
If FSD lives up to its promise then Tesla will sell every 3,Y and cybertruck it can possibly make at a huge markup, and other car companies will be in massive trouble. Ride-hailing companies like Uber,Lyft will likely implode.

Really not long now until Q2 production. I think if its even a single car higher than Q1 then that will help shape the narrative. I doubt we get hard numbers on cybertrucks, but it would be interesting to see how the ramp is going.
Very good times coming up.

 

[scaesare]

Didn't he already own 20%+ back in 2018? Shouldn't that be motivating enough financially for him (or anyone) to work his butt off (as every single other massive shareowners are in)?

Here is an old press release from 2018. I know some of us disagree on this, but I simply don't think early/near founders need to be compensated in this way which dilutes other shareholders (to the tune of 10% which is insane for anyone, even if not named Elon). I suppose it's good that I am not an individual TSLA stock owner, but I do own it in various index/retirement. Guess it's nice if so many feel he needs that much more $$ to work hard (with his 5 other companies). I simply don't agree with it. I also never "believe" he will not move AI out of Tesla when he has a company called xAi (started in 2023). He could have simply built that within Tesla to benefit all existing shareholders (which he needs now to spend "some" time on as well to build up.

Tesla Investor Relations

PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 23, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla today announced a new 10-year CEO performance award for Elon Musk with vesting entirely contingent on achieving market cap and operational milestones that would make Tesla one of the most valuable companies in the world.

ir.tesla.com

The context of my point was that @wtlloyd was talking about Elon's original joining of Tesla to which @GatorMeat replied and said; "No other billionaire founder needed to be 'bribed' with billions of new dollars in shares to show up to work."

Elon was neither a billionaire, nor was any compensation package yet in place (or even discussed, AFAIK). What's more, the compensation recently re-approved and currently being debated is for things already accomplished.

Hence my reply. And the example of Elon's dedication in the face of bankruptcy on Xmas eve was to simply reinforce that Elon has been more than willing to put in sweat with no promise of reward... just like other CEO's.

 

[wtlloyd]

You are missing the point. No other billionaire founder needed to be 'bribed' with billions of new dollars in shares to show up to work. They were all properly motivated to grow their own creations and their boards didn't have to advertise to influence shareholders to vote for an insane amount of compensation. Maybe because it's not really Elon's baby, but it's adopted is why he needs billions more to continue? Next we will be scared into voting to give him trillions? Why didn't Zuck, Bezos, Gates, Huang threaten shareholders for more billions or they'd take their ball and go home?

You list the 4 richest guys in the world as examples of CEOs who didn't make billions off their own companies?
Please explain.