Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[alexxs88]

You just flip flopped.

Before you say there's not proof that more data = better model.

Now you are saying not proof that more data = signficantly better model.

The correct answer is, more (clean) data will always improve the model, but usually with increasingly diminishing returns.

BTW, that's why model size has to go up. You need both to get the best models.

Which is why FSD will rely on bigger and bigger models over time. HW5 should work I hope.

Agreed on all counts, I should've been clearer in my initial message.

What I meant is that there is a point at which more data isn't going to make your autonomous driving system better than others. From what I'm seeing Waymo already has enough data to achieve it in a way that won't affect commercial viability for RT. Sure, Tesla's might end up being autonomous everywhere, but as many other posters said before me, RT business is one where the majority of revenue is done in a relatively limited area. You cover the big cities and their outskirts and you're done. You might argue that, beyond having a subscription business (similar to FSD now), it won't be commercially viable to have autonomous vehicles go too far from their base.

 

[Musskiah]

Another Video that I'll let Gemini (ai.com) summarize for me and won't watch myself:

This video discusses Tesla's Optimus Bot and Elon Musk's expectations for the future of the technology. The speaker, Herbert, interviews Dr. Scott Walter, a Tesla bot expert, to analyze Elon Musk's recent comments about the Optimus Bot.
Here are the key points from the video:

• Elon Musk revealed that Tesla is working on a third generation (Gen 3) Optimus Bot, which will have 22 degrees of freedom and the ability to play the piano.
• Dr. Walter believes that this ability suggests that the Gen 3 bot will have improved hand dexterity and will likely be able to perform more complex tasks.
• Elon Musk also mentioned that future versions of the Optimus Bot may have customizable personalities and the ability to learn and adapt.
• Dr. Walter believes that these capabilities will likely be achieved through the integration of a large language model into the bot.
• Elon Musk predicts that the Optimus Bot could have a major impact on the world economy, potentially reaching a valuation of $25 trillion.
• Dr. Walter acknowledges that this is an ambitious prediction but believes that the technology has the potential to be very disruptive.
• Wall Street analysts are more conservative in their estimates but still see significant potential in the Optimus Bot.
• Dr. Walter believes that Tesla's advantage in manufacturing will allow them to scale production of the Optimus Bot quickly.
• He predicts that Tesla could be producing hundreds of thousands of bots per year within a few years.

Overall, the video suggests that the Optimus Bot is a rapidly developing technology with the potential to revolutionize the way we work and live.

I can tell you, from watching the video myself, there are many specific, important details and ideas Gemini misses. I think the summary is far too much of a generalization. Perhaps ask for greater detail in the interpretation.

 

[Huskyf]

Stock going rapid down in pre market ? Q2 report is out or persons know it ?
20 minutes later is going up again

 

[Stormy24]

Stock going rapid down in pre market ? Q2 report is out or persons know it ?
20 minutes later is going up again

Premarket futures down so that’s why TSLA is down. I think TSLA will go down today as yesterday was a pump and today will likely be a bump. Please remember TSLA has very little to do with Tesla.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Turkey / Türkiye and tax-optimised version of Model Y

412 Model Y in first 5 months of 2024, then 2670 in June 2024 (33% of all EV June sales in Turkey, 8.65% of Year-To-Date EV sales).

These figures aren't included in Europe numbers. Singapore also has a special low power version for tax/quota reasons.

Spoiler: Turkish language Tweet (click on translate)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808053847547330904

10% SCT attack from Tesla

When we look at electric car sales in June;

Tesla, which sold only 412 units in the first 5 months, reached the top with the delivery of a total of 2670 units with Model Y, which entered the 10% Special Consumption Tax bracket in June.

The sales of Togg, whose zero interest campaign ended in June, remained at 1733 units.

Let's see how the order will be as Tesla's deliveries continue at full speed in July.

At the end of the first 6 months, Togg T10X is the clear leader with 13021 units. At this rate, it seems that it will probably be at the 2023 level by the end of the year.

Here are the best-selling electric cars in June and the first 6 months

Tesla are in 15th position with 2.51% of June sales (all power types)

 

[Usain]

"Nothing compares to $Tsla's approach. I see imitation learning/end-to-end as the only effective approach for self-driving. While Chinese peers perform well on main roads, they struggle on frontage roads due to reliance on high-precision maps and rule-based methods (e.g. cars stopped in the middle of the road where there was no clear white lining)."

Yes, China's automakers are still on FSD V11 equivalents. If you have driven on V11 and V12, I think you already have a feel for what China can do right now.

The question is, how quickly will China be able to go end-to-end?

I think China can figure out a way to get the data. It might take automakers working together to gather that data, but they could get there.

Can they access the necessary computing infrastructure? I'm not sure how that happens. Any ideas?

Can China catch up to Tesla? How long will it take? My guess is 5 years, but the Chinese are very resourceful.

 

[Usain]

Interesting report of Chinese FSD competitors. Striking how many features (blue line to show where the car goes, sounds, dead angle camera) look very familiar. But performance looks solid judging from the few videos (which may be cherry picked, as many of FSD are). S

https://twitter.com/x/status/1807982122046484753

I notice that Herbert has reached out to Freda for an interview. I hope that happens soon. Good info on the state of automation in China has been hard to come by.

 

[FastEddieB]

a month ahead of you

View attachment 1061458

Looking at that chart, there sure seems to more than one was to superimpose lines over past performance to try to predict future performance. In fact, I’d propose that number of ways may approach infinity, depending on how you zoom in or out and how one forces the lines into rough alignment with the data.

Which is just one of several flaws I see in Technical Analysis as a useful tool.

 

[AudubonB]

Turkey / Türkiye and tax-optimised version of Model Y

Not applicable to TMC, as grammar, spelling, etc., are not areas for Mods to go - but, as the above has appeared many times, for edification when on more….sensitive(?)…discussion boards:

Is one now also supposed to write “Austria / Österreich”? “Japan / 日本”?

 

[jkirkwood001]

Cern Basher game card for 8/8:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1807868919257968706

 

[y_naught]

443,956 deliveries.

 

[Bipo]

 

[SarahsDad]

Tesla Investor Relations

AUSTIN, Texas, July 2, 2024 – In the second quarter, we produced approximately 411,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles. We deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, the highest quarterly deployment yet.

ir.tesla.com

444K deliveries. Stock is up.

 

[elasalle]

Congrats to All !!

On track to beat 1.8 yearly numbers ...

 

[Xd85]

good to see energy deployment material enough to be continued to be reported. As far as I can tell it only start 2024

 

[SPadival]

Damit.. you beat me

The TSLAQ Trojan horse of Troy not going to like it

 

[Baumisch]

I can tell you, from watching the video myself, there are many specific, important details and ideas Gemini misses. I think the summary is far too much of a generalization. Perhaps ask for greater detail in the interpretation.

Won't argue that - but you can ask Gemini follow-ups on the summary as well - in the end, if it's valuable enough, I'll watch it - but tbh, most videos in here I just let Gemini summarize (Gemini itself is also not "watching" the videos, it's using the captions of the video afaik to summarize, which in itself misses all non-spoken stuff already.)

 

[Tachyon]

Damit.. you beat me

The TSLAQ Trojan horse of Troy not going to like it

He will hide behind less than 3% error rate

 

[Singuy]

Is that it? No substance here. Do you think the parameter count is going up 5x "for fun"?

When V12.5 or 12.6 comes out and does amazingly well - maybe 5,000 - 10,000 miles per critical disengagement (like 20x - 40x 12.3.6), I hope people still realize it will need another 10x-20x to get to robotaxi level.

I really hope that's not a contentious statement here. Robotaxis need to go at least 100,000 miles if not 2x or 3x to be better than humans.

If they need to get to that level - and they needed to 5x parameter count to get part of the way there - surely you would think parameter count would go up even further to get "all the way" there?




Um, well you may not know but the CEO has stated for many years your HW3 vehicle will turn into a robotaxi someday. I didn't claim that.

Assuredly there will be other features and metrics that improve and do take up *some* of that added complexity, but the majority of the complexity is added to solve the sparse, almost stochastic edge cases in everyday driving. It's just like every other massive deep learning model developed by other tech companies. They keep getting bigger to get better.

Tesla is not some magic unicorn tech company that is going to toot out the same sized model with 20x the performance. That is what HW3 Truthers are now betting on.



Likely not much more.

Keep in mind, this really doesn't affect the company - all real potential robotaxi revenue is going to be gated by the robotaxi vehicle and the infrastructure that has to be built to support it. And FSD development is a positive toward this goal overall.

I don't think anything because I don't work for Tesla and I, just like you, have 1/100000th the information as it comes from a tweet here and there.

You know the entire world said Tesla would run out of compute on hw3 by 2021-2022 and yet here we are. Green on Twitter have been saying they have been using the second inference chip since 2021 as they ran out of compute from one of the chip. If you extrapolate FSD performance of 2021 back then, anyone would say Tesla couldn't reach any significant intervention free drive on hw3 ever.

 

[MP3Mike]

He will hide behind less than 3% error rate

But it is closer to 5% off isn't it?