The Problem with "Rare" cars

[HankLloydRight]

The other thing to consider is this -- when Tesla discontinued the green color, suddenly a lot of people re-considered their color choices and bought green cars. Not because they liked it better, but because it was instantly in-demand because it was going to be rare, regardless that it was previously a low-demand color. Just the thought of buying one of the last green cars created value in people's minds.

 

[Upscaleman]

You'd really have to do a regression analysis to see what the biggest contributing factor is in discounting.. there are lots of different factors at play -- features, options, color, mileage, age, etc. Without actually doing that kind of detailed statistical analysis, you really can't make the statement that green cars are the most discounted.

That analysis has been done, many times over.....Green cars are harder to sell than Black, White and Silver.

 

[Buddyroe]

@Buddyroe - are you trying to buy a green car & they're asking a premium for the paint color? (Trying to figure out what motivated this thread in the 'Tesla For Sale' part of the forum...)

Honestly, no motivation other than I have been looking at used Teslas for about 4.5 years now. I follow all of the ads very closely including the cars listed here, ebay, autotrader, and CL from all major cities. And it seems I find the "rare" and "unicorn" tag applied to almost every green car I have come across in the last 2 years. I saw another this morning and decided to rant. Nothing more. Probably should have used a little more self-control and not made the post - it really adds no value to this forum.

 

[Will Travel]

for sale ads that label something a unicorn in hopes of justifying a "premium" price.

Labeling a Unicorn can simply be a data point, not necessarily an attempt to justify a "premium" price.

For example, I have a so-called Unicorn listed for $65,000. It's a December 2014 P85 with AP1 and 8307 miles. Tesla has, in their Used section, an early 2014 S85 with 35,514 miles, no AP1. The price is $63,200.

P85 vs S85
AP1 vs no AP1
8307 miles vs 35,514 miles
Late 2014 vs early 2014

Unicorn has nothing to do with the $1800 difference in price. It's just a data point.

 

[thecloud]

Based on the OP's previous posts, he's frustrated by the wait for a Model 3 and is in the market for a used Model S, but doesn't like the available for-sale options ("Silver has always been my favorite color on a car. Next is black. Everything else is tied for 3rd - or last.") So we can safely say that he doesn't actually want any shade of green, and is puzzled as to why someone would use that color as a selling point.

As Hank and others have noted, the real value here is in the combination of a performance RWD car with AP. It so happens that green (and brown) are rare colors within that relatively rare set of cars, but the cars are holding their value because of AP.

 

[Sig72]

Green is a great color for a

car

There, fixed it for you

 

[bonnie]

Honestly, no motivation other than I have been looking at used Teslas for about 4.5 years now. I follow all of the ads very closely including the cars listed here, ebay, autotrader, and CL from all major cities. And it seems I find the "rare" and "unicorn" tag applied to almost every green car I have come across in the last 2 years. I saw another this morning and decided to rant. Nothing more. Probably should have used a little more self-control and not made the post - it really adds no value to this forum.

Nah, I've got my own rants on different things . I was just curious, thanks for answering.

But for the record, MY Model X is a unicorn. Hah! Founders series, 100kWh battery, AP2 hardware, fold flat seats, ventilated seating.

 

[HankLloydRight]

That analysis has been done, many times over.....Green cars are harder to sell than Black, White and Silver.

By "analysis" what do you mean, exactly? Or is it just a gut feel? Has anyone done an actual regression analysis?

Also, green cars are harder to sell because there is lower demand for them (which is probably why Tesla discontinued the color). That is completely independent from the perceived scarcity (lower supply) of the color which would drive up the price.

Like I said earlier, being "harder to sell" is a factor of BOTH low demand and low supply. It's not just one or the other. It's all about matching up the right seller with the right buyer. The wrong buyer is one who devalues green just to "get a good deal" regardless of color. The wrong seller is one who devalues green because there are other factors at play besides color -- like just selling the car quickly or they have to buy a house, etc. It's never just about the color.

 

[Super_Popular]

Nah, I've got my own rants on different things . I was just curious, thanks for answering.

But for the record, MY Model X is a unicorn. Hah! Founders series, 100kWh battery, AP2 hardware, fold flat seats, ventilated seating.

Oooooooo ventilated seats!, lucky you

 

[HankLloydRight]

I will agree with @Buddyroe that the term "unicron" is thrown around and used way too loosely around here.

I wouldn't call a green car a unicorn just because it's green.

I would call any P85+ w/AP1 the one true Tesla unicorn. Maybe the late 2014 P85s with AP1, but I think there are many more of those, so that's a grey area.

The P85Ds with + suspension -- not a unicorn. I can't think of any other configurations that would qualify as a unicorn.

 

[thecloud]

I would call any P85+ w/AP1 the one true Tesla unicorn. Maybe the late 2014 P85s with AP1, but I think there are many more of those, so that's a grey area.

The ratio of P85-with-AP1 to P85+-with-AP1 is approximately 2:1, based on the 180 cars that we currently know about.

 

[Super_Popular]

I disagree. A P85D+ is a unicorn because there are so few. It's no different than a P85+ with AP. They both have a non ordered, added item.

 

[thecloud]

I disagree. A P85D+ is a unicorn because there are so few. It's no different than a P85+ with AP. They both have a non ordered, added item.

But it's AWD, and you can still buy a new performance AWD car with AP. You can't buy a new RWD performance car of any flavor.

Arguably the + suspension in the P85D is a unicorn-ish feature. I wonder how many of those got built...
(Edit: apparently, thousands.)

 

[Don TLR]

Labeling a Unicorn can simply be a data point, not necessarily an attempt to justify a "premium" price.

For example, I have a so-called Unicorn listed for $65,000. It's a December 2014 P85 with AP1 and 8307 miles. Tesla has, in their Used section, an early 2014 S85 with 35,514 miles, no AP1. The price is $63,200.

P85 vs S85
AP1 vs no AP1
8307 miles vs 35,514 miles
Late 2014 vs early 2014

Unicorn has nothing to do with the $1800 difference in price. It's just a data point.

The cars seem (to me) to be about 8-10k over what they were months ago. I picked up a P85 RMC with CF spoiler Red Calipers, PI with sunroof, 34K miles in like new condition for 54 and it seemed like that was the norm at the time. Your car has very low miles and warrants a bigger price.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I disagree. A P85D+ is a unicorn because there are so few. It's no different than a P85+ with AP. They both have a non ordered, added item.

Except there were thousands produced over 5 months. They're still easy to find and buy today. I own one (and love it to death), but I still wouldn't call it a unicorn.

Edit: Looking at CPO history, there have only been 6 P85+/AP1 cars listed for sale by Tesla. There have been 56 P85D+ cars listed, or about 9 times as many.

P85+/AP1 VINS range from: P55593 to P57094 (a 1,501 total unit spread)
P85D+ VINS range from P55143 to P77543 (a 22,400 total unit spread)

 

[Will Travel]

The cars seem (to me) to be about 8-10k over what they were months ago. I picked up a P85 RMC with CF spoiler Red Calipers, PI with sunroof, 34K miles in like new condition for 54 and it seemed like that was the norm at the time. Your car has very low miles and warrants a bigger price.

Does your car have Auto Pilot?

 

[HankLloydRight]

Some more CPO stats:

Total P85+ listed: 831
Total P85+AP1 listed: 6 <--- less than 0.7% of P85+ sold --- Unicorn status achieved!

Total P85D listed: 493
Total P85D+ listed: 56 <-- 11% of units sold --- not a unicorn
Total P85D listed without AP1: 2 <--- 0.4% of total sold -- Is this another 'unicorn'??

Total P85 listed: 1,483
Total P85+AP1 listed: 29 <--- 2% of P85 sold -- borderline Unicorn status

 

[Upscaleman]

By "analysis" what do you mean, exactly? Or is it just a gut feel? Has anyone done an actual regression analysis?

Also, green cars are harder to sell because there is lower demand for them (which is probably why Tesla discontinued the color). That is completely independent from the perceived scarcity (lower supply) of the color which would drive up the price.

Like I said earlier, being "harder to sell" is a factor of BOTH low demand and low supply. It's not just one or the other. It's all about matching up the right seller with the right buyer. The wrong buyer is one who devalues green just to "get a good deal" regardless of color. The wrong seller is one who devalues green because there are other factors at play besides color -- like just selling the car quickly or they have to buy a house, etc. It's never just about the color.

If you google it, there is a ton of information out there about the resale value of cars by color.

 

[thecloud]

Total P85D listed without AP1: 2 <--- 0.4% of total sold -- Is this another 'unicorn'??

There wasn't any such animal. All P85Ds were built with AP1 hardware, by definition. Perhaps these 2 did not have the Tech Package with Autopilot enabled at the time, then later Tesla just activated that package by default for all CPO cars capable of AP?

Total P85 listed: 1,483
Total P85 AP1 listed: 29 <--- 2% of P85 sold -- borderline Unicorn status

Still a pretty small number in absolute terms.

 

[HankLloydRight]

There wasn't any such animal. All P85Ds were built with AP1 hardware, by definition. Perhaps these 2 did not have the Tech Package with Autopilot enabled at the time, then later Tesla just activated that package by default for all CPO cars capable of AP?

Right, but they were both listed and sold without AP activated, according to the option codes.