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The Problem with "Rare" cars

HankLloydRight

No Roads
Jan 18, 2014
12,821
10,834
Connecticut
I even have the original listing page cached for one of them: EV CPO Consolidator / Tesla Preowned Inventory / ev-cpo.com

No AP activated.


upload_2017-12-8_13-8-10.png
 

HankLloydRight

No Roads
Jan 18, 2014
12,821
10,834
Connecticut
If you google it, there is a ton of information out there about the resale value of cars by color.

Sure, for all cars sold.

But we're talking specifically about Tesla where the green color was discontinued creating perceived scarcity.

Lots of other cars are still available in green, it's not really relevant.
 

thecloud

As rhythm raced inside, the ship came alive
Nov 24, 2014
1,769
1,623
Sunnyvale, CA
Right, but they were both listed and sold without AP activated, according to the option codes.
I understand that they were listed without AP activated. What I'm disputing is that they are somehow special, because the buyer could always opt to pony up the extra $500 or whatever it was to have Tesla flip the switch and turn on the AP functionality. That's very different from not having the AP hardware installed at all.
 

b team

Member
May 19, 2017
258
180
Charleston, SC
Wow. :rolleyes:o_O:eek: This is the most subjective comment I've seen in a long time.

There's no such thing as a "performance" color. It's 100% personal preference.

There are endless examples of what I call fugly Lambos and Ferraris. That doesn't change the performance of the car.

Did you also put a big wing on the back of your car, because you know, all real performance cars need big wing stabilizers to make the car go faster.
I should have said, "The value for many is..."
 

HankLloydRight

No Roads
Jan 18, 2014
12,821
10,834
Connecticut
I understand that they were listed without AP activated. What I'm disputing is that they are somehow special, because the buyer could always opt to pony up the extra $500 or whatever it was to have Tesla flip the switch and turn on the AP functionality. That's very different from not having the AP hardware installed at all.

Nobody knows if/how/when someone activated AP in those two cars. I'm not at all arguing that they are special in anyway.

The truth is I only included this line as a bit of sarcasm to the usage of 'unicorn':

Total P85D listed without AP1: 2 <--- 0.4% of total sold -- Is this another 'unicorn'??

call it the 'reverse unicorn'.
 
Last edited:

BrokerDon

Active Member
Aug 23, 2014
1,394
1,283
Newport Coast, CA
Well our Tesla got named Pegasus (mythical Greek character) because it WAS the unicorn "inventory" fully loaded P85D+ with ALL the options we wanted at a nice discount over the "build to order" ("BTO") option. We waited ~ 3 years from the day we put down our initial $5,000 deposit at our local Tesla store until we took deliver of Pegasus... and passed on ~ 50 "close matches" to our BTO options until our "unicorn" surfaced.

Like HankLloydRight I LOVE our P85D+ suspension, especially after driving a factory race track ready 2006 Corvette Z06 for 10 years. :cool:
 

Olds442

Member
Nov 6, 2017
776
499
Usually in the past.
I would pay more for green if all other things were equal. i've always liked green cars but it's true that they are the hardest to get out of inventory because i'm a "unicorn" type of buyer, because i like green. most people don't like green cars.

as far as the stats on how many, it's really just more of a documented anomaly. if someone likes that added oddball "feature" then great.

but as said earlier in this thread as well, it's only worth what someone is willing to hand you for it. it's also worth stating that people often see more value in their own possessions than others see. that's very common human nature.
 
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HankLloydRight

No Roads
Jan 18, 2014
12,821
10,834
Connecticut
I just did a very quick and dirty extract from the database of CPO cars sold in 2012, 2013, and 2014, showing average price and count of cars sold for each color.

Only 60,85,P85,P85D, and P85+ models were included (because they were the only ones sold in green). U.S. cars only.

Since we don't have the original MSRP price of any of these cars, it's not possible to calculate "most discounted" as previously asserted. We can only go by average price and possibly days-on-market (DOM).

In every year, Green is not the lowest average priced CPO car sold. Sure, it's near the bottom, but it's never last.

Now I said this is very quick and dirty, so this doesn't take into account options or mileage.

I don't have time for a full regression analysis tonight. Maybe in a few weeks I can do something more significant.

upload_2017-12-8_18-0-34.png
 
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b team

Member
May 19, 2017
258
180
Charleston, SC
I just did a very quick and dirty extract from the database of CPO cars sold in 2012, 2013, and 2014, showing average price and count of cars sold for each color.

Only 60,85,P85,P85D, and P85+ models were included (because they were the only ones sold in green). U.S. cars only.

Since we don't have the original MSRP price of any of these cars, it's not possible to calculate "most discounted" as previously asserted. We can only go by average price and possibly days-on-market (DOM).

In every year, Green is not the lowest average priced CPO car sold. Sure, it's near the bottom, but it's never last.

Now I said this is very quick and dirty, so this doesn't take into account options or mileage.

I don't have time for a full regression analysis tonight. Maybe in a few weeks I can do something more significant.

View attachment 265390
If Tesla sets the price based on a formula that doesn't take into account color, then you wouldn't expect any difference in price after accounting for other variables. Instead, desirability would be better represented by days on the market. Also, since Tesla's formula likely changed over time, a regression that focuses on price may merely measure when cars were sold rather than their desirability.
 

HankLloydRight

No Roads
Jan 18, 2014
12,821
10,834
Connecticut
If Tesla sets the price based on a formula that doesn't take into account color, then you wouldn't expect any difference in price after accounting for other variables. Instead, desirability would be better represented by days on the market. Also, since Tesla's formula likely changed over time, a regression that focuses on price may merely measure when cars were sold rather than their desirability.

But remember, correlation is not causation. We don't know if color is the driving factor in the average price differences.
 
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