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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by JRP3, Mar 26, 2014.
Interesting look at recycling, which should someday be a large source of battery resources
Keep an eye on Novonix, ties to Jeff Dahn and his work, maybe working with Tesla. NOVONIX - making better batteries - Novonix
Gali had an interview with the COO
I spent an hour tonight trying to figure out how to buy shares in Novonix. TD, Chase, nor Square seem to hit the AX markets.
Did you try NVNFX? Trades on the OTC Pink Sheets. TD shows the quote and gives options to trade, I haven't tried to actually purchase yet.
OK, tried to buy, didn't work.
U.S. Strengthens Its Rare Earth Supply Chain With New Processing Plant | OilPrice.com
American Battery Metals Corporation Selects Northern Nevada for its Lithium-Ion Battery Commercial Pilot Recycling Plant
Tesla to buy cobalt from Glencore for new car plants
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
While Tesla uses less cobalt than rival electric carmakers, the deal with Glencore could involve up to 6,000 tonnes a year.
Tesla’s battery production capacity is expected to increase 570 per cent over the next decade to 248 gigawatt hours, according to consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. One GWh of battery capacity is enough for about 18,000 electric cars on average.(~4.5M vehicles)
Glencore, which is led by billionaire Ivan Glasenberg, is the world’s largest producer of cobalt from its two mines in the DRC and its nickel mines in Australia and Canada. Since a steep fall in cobalt prices ( to ~$30k/ton) in 2018, the miner has focused on signing long-term agreements with companies in the electric car supply chain.
Some of this discussion came up in the Shorting Oil thread. @renim makes the case that existing nickel and cobalt resources are only sufficient for NMC and NCA batteries to replace a fraction of the auto market. This leaves two options develop other chemistries that use less of these minerals or develop more nickel and cobalt resources. @renim claims from personal experience as a miner in these metals that the latter is hard. My own view is that the industry will do both. Developing new chemistries to the point that they serve well the needs of EVs is hard and costly. Developing new mines can also be costly and hard. But both are worth doing, and the businesses that solve these challenges rightly stand to make money. For Tesla in particular, it is advantageous to have a whole portfolio of chemistries that they can put into production. These options give Tesla greater leverage when negotiating contracts with miners. A miner that thinks they can bottleneck Tesla into paying a long-term premium for some essential vibranium needs to understand that Tesla holds and will develop other options.
Another nuance about holding a broad chemistry portfolio is that there is plenty of room to specialize chemistries for particular applications. Finding the best tradeoff of dozens of performance attributes and price is at the core of bringing top tier products to market. We should not be thinking that batteries are just a commodity where a single chemistry pushes all competitors out of the market. So developing a broad portfolio of chemistries means battery choice can be highly specialized and optimized to the the product they power. So I would expect that the battery market becomes increasingly diverse and customized as EVs scale up. If this is correct, then it becomes very hard to forecast what mix of minerals will be required 10 or even 5 years out, but we can be sure that minerals that are too pricey will compete with technologies that minimize their use in battery chemistries.
I was able to buy NVNXF with TD Ameritrade by putting in a limit order overnight which filled at market open this morning. Not sure why I couldn't previously.
I was able to buy more just now in regular trading.
I wasn’t able to trade it with Chase as it threw a penny stock error but TD was no problem.
We must have moved the price, I'm up almost 3 cents a share
Discussion of Tesla and Novonix, the comment section is worth reading as well.
A look at the Nickel situation
LFP solves the nickel problem.
I'm very surprised Tesla is sticking with Nickel-based cells for Semi. I think they're overly focused on their arbitrary 500 mile spec instead of the actual trucking market.
My guess is the next gen Nickel based cells which we'll hear about on Battery Day blow away LFP for density. Tesla is focusing on nickel for a reason, I'm sure they've run the numbers. If they can reduce the amount of support structure at the pack level required for Ni based chemistry the way CATL did for LFP that alone would give a big boost to energy density.
Plus always remember that "500" mile range is in ideal conditions, bad conditions might reduce it to 350 or so.
The Limiting Factor does a deep dive into Novonix