@alseTrick -- Wow. This is the closest thing to a hopeful, forward thinking post I've ever seen from you. And I still don't like your overall tone.
Tesla isn't going to be cranking out a half-million 3's in 2018. I just don't believe that.
Well, it's a good thing that isn't what Tesla said they are going to do in 2018. They said the total operating Capacity at Fremont would reach 500,000 units in 2018. Capacity is typically higher than Production, which is in turn greater than Sales/Deliveries. Assuming that Model S and Model X combined sales grow to perhaps 100,000 units combined
(80,000 on the low end, and 120,000 on the high end, I think) that leaves perhaps 400,000 units of Model ☰ to potentially be built in 2018.
If they're able to get 25-50k 3's out in 2017, I'd call that a big win. Increasing that 10-20 fold in 2018 though? Crazy talk. But I would think something like 200k is possible if Tesla launches the 3 on time.
It will be a
'big win' indeed WHEN
(no, not 'IF') the Model ☰ manages to outsell all BOLT production to date in the waning months of 2017. 50,000 units would do the trick, and anything over 30,000 units almost certainly get it done. But Elon Musk would like to shoot for higher heights, aiming for the 100,000 to 200,000 unit mark. If Tesla were to achieve only 40% completion of that goal it would be 40,000-to-80,000 units during 2017 and blow away your estimate. If those can be Delivered within the last three months of 2017, that makes for a 160,000-to-320,000 unit build rate to START 2018. And that would be with several months left over to build upon that manufacturing rate through the course of the year.
(These are just numbers I've made up. They're not meant to be predictive. They only represent what I believe to be reasonable production figures.)
Except, they look mighty predictive anyway...
If the 3 is successful these next 5 years (potentially a few million on roadways worldwide), I think you'll see two things: 1) electric vehicles - or at least Teslas - will be viewed as more practical than they currently are, 2) the Tesla haters spewing nonsense will actually get louder.
Those two things will likely happen, despite that
'IF' you put in there. But Tesla is already considered fairly practical, to those with an I.Q. an order of magnitude above their sneaker size, anyway. Tesla should have introduced a very capable full sized pickup truck well within the next five years, and that will certainly quiet a few of the detractors. Yes. Including the
'coal rollers'.
I don't think the 3 represents some massive revolution or shift.
Why not?
Many people won't buy the 3 because it's still too expensive for them, even the base vehicle.
Well, that's why during 2015, with the average sale price of new cars sold in the U.S. climbing over $33,000...? And over 17,000,000 new cars sold that year...? There were 38,000,000 USED CARS with an average sale price of $18,000 sold. Yes, a 21,000,000 unit gap. So, yeah, pretty much by default,
'many people' do not buy new cars any [DURNED] way! But you know what? You have to SELL
NEW CARS before you can SELL
USED CARS. The used cars sold had an average age of around 10 years, and there aren't any Tesla vehicles that old yet. But there will be, within the next five years. Though none of them will be a Model ☰.
And for most people, charging 30 minutes every two hours while on a road trip is a nuisance.
For me, it is a
'nuisance' to stop on a road trip half an hour after asking if everyone was ready to go, after the last stop, because someone who said they were
'fine' before all of a sudden has to pee. Why didn't you pee while we were at the Pilot/TA/Love's or whatever? It is also a nuisance to transport smokers, or alcoholics, because they have to stop more often than children, it seems. But plugging up once every THREE hours or so, for half an hour? No problem at all. I can take a walk, maybe have a quick nap to rest my eyes, or grab a bite to eat. I figure the ~1,900 mile trip I take from Los Angeles to the Family Homestead in Mississippi would take around 8 hours longer in a Supercharger enabled EV. And I'd still get their sooner, by about 8 hours, than those in the Family that drive SLOWEST.
The batteries also need to increase in energy density and charging needs to decrease substantially. Otherwise EVs will remain a niche, but sizable (and growing) market.
Neither of those is particularly necessary. Those aren't 'needs' at all, though the advance in technology will allow them to happen anyway. That is, if you believe that a
'substantial' increase in energy density for battery packs is to make them as energy dense as gasoline, you are wrong. Because electric vehicles are vastly more efficient than ICE, it is not necessary to have as large an energy reserve on hand. Eventually, and likely within the next five years, we will have battery packs that have the energy capacity of five gallons of gasoline. At 170 kWh battery pack capacity in a normal sized passenger car you won't need it to occupy the same amount of space or weigh the same as a 5 gallon gerry can. Even if it occupies the same volume as 25 gallons of gasoline and weighs four times as much that would be a tremendous advance. You would easily achieve a 500 mile range, and charging would be faster simply by having a higher capacity. Most times you wouldn't actually even stop to charge, so much as you would for biological needs
(eat, sleep, lavatory), and just plug-in while you are away from the car. Should a super-fast charging mechanism be delivered, it will be even easier.
"Ding, ding, ding, ding... BONG!" And you're done! There was a time when imported cars from Japan were a niche market in the U.S. And ten years later, GM's market share had dropped from 53% to 35% instead. Today? They are under 18%.
But it will be more likely that you know somebody who drives a pure EV and they will be much more accepted as "the car of the future" instead of the oddity they still currently are.
DUH.
What I'm saying is, the world won't truly change via EVs until they are as quick to fill up and have a range as far as most ice vehicles today, at a price point more in line with today's mass produced ice vehicles. As of right now, that's not the 3, but that vehicle may not be too far off.
Wrong. The
'quick to fill up' and
'range as far' points are red herrings. Very few people go on
'splash & dash' road trips. Most people spend a LOT more time at gas stations than they realize. Most people have no idea whatsoever as to the actual range of their cars. They just find a gas station and pull over when the needle points to 1/4 tank remaining. The average sale price of
'today's mass produced ice vehicles' is precisely in line with a $35,000 base price. That's why there is such a crossover in pricing at GM between Buick, Cadillac, and Chevrolet lines.
And yes, Tesla haters will have to double down on their lies and smears when the 3 is going at full production. Those people are either too ignorant, too unwilling to admit they were wrong, or too indebted to the legacy manufacturers and fossil fuel giants.
Perhaps. But your own attitude is not going to help dispel the myths that have convinced them there is something
'wrong' with an electric vehicle. Just because people hold those views, doesn't mean you have to agree with them. There will be plenty enough people who are willing to switch to pure EV without Tesla Model ☰ being
'for everyone'. And, once those people who primarily buy used cars are able over the course of the next 5-to-10 years to pick up their first Tesla, they will. Then, we'll have a whole new generation of EV Evangelists to spread the word. And that will be the true REVOLUTION.
