There will be NO HW4 upgrade for HW3 owners

[ddeflyer]

Geeze, talking about threading the needle on that disclaimer! I suspect that his statement there will end up being contested in court as ineffectual but who knows how that would turn out (such statements are generally given at the start of the talk or before a speaker giving the forward looking statement so it is clear the whole talk is covered; this makes it horribly vague on what part of the talk is forward looking or not).

That all said, concrete statements about present facts are inherently not forward looking. "Our earnings were xxx last quarter" is not covered by the disclaimer while "We forecast next quarter earnings to be xxx" is. I'd argue that (paraphrasing) "All cars now ship with all required hardware for full self driving" is likewise a concrete statement though I'd say the robotaxi stuff (especially with earnings potential, etc) is forward looking.

More interestingly though, he does give a pretty clear definition on what the FSD package is supposed to become (more so that I remembered) and it is clearly at least L3. I think it is obvious that that alone wouldn't win a case about requiring a HW3->HW4 upgrade, but it sure would be powerful secondary evidence given the lack of present definition in primary sources.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Geeze, talking about threading the needle on that disclaimer! I suspect that his statement there will end up being contested in court as ineffectual but who knows how that would turn out (such statements are generally given at the start of the talk or before a speaker giving the forward looking statement so it is clear the whole talk is covered; this makes it horribly vague on what part of the talk is forward looking or not).

I think it's the opposite actually, in press releases I've seen, usually the forward looking disclaimer is put at the very end and they usually do not identify the specific statements that fall under it (there is no legal benefit to doing so, only negative consequences for example if you accidentally left out a particular one, so it makes zero sense to do so).

"All cars now ship with all required hardware for full self driving" is likewise a concrete statement

This statement has already been proven false as said in 2016 in regards to HW2 (even though he repeated the same claim even in this presentation) given HW2 was not ready for even FSD Beta.

Elon recently claim HW3 is still capable of whatever he defines as FSD, just that HW4 is further beyond that in safety levels vs a human. I quoted a part up thread, but others directed things into a tangent about Elon promising L5. The point I was trying to make is unlike the switch from HW2 to HW3, Tesla have not said they are abandoning HW3 for further FSD development (even though people in this thread are already treating it as such).

From the lastest leaks, the cars with HW4 don't even have any new additional or updated camera positions, so people were just working themselves into a frenzy way too early.

 

[Bouba]

I’m not sure how you can prevent hardware progress after you’ve bought your car...I’m not sure that I would even want that.
It would be nice if ALL future upgrades could be retrofitted...including the 12v battery, the Ryzen chip, and now the new FSD chip...but I understand that is not always possible.
While Teslas are the most updatable cars in the world..there comes a point where if you want the very latest...you just have to buy a new car..like we used to do in the bad old days

 

[ddeflyer]

I think it's the opposite actually, in press releases I've seen, usually the forward looking disclaimer is put at the very end and they usually do not identify the specific statements that fall under it (there is no legal benefit to doing so, only negative consequences for example if you accidentally left out a particular one, so it makes zero sense to do so).


This statement has already been proven false as said in 2016 in regards to HW2 (even though he repeated the same claim even in this presentation) given HW2 was not ready for even FSD Beta.

Elon recently claim HW3 is still capable of whatever he defines as FSD, just that HW4 is further beyond that in safety levels vs a human. I quoted a part up thread, but others directed things into a tangent about Elon promising L5. The point I was trying to make is unlike the switch from HW2 to HW3, Tesla have not said they are abandoning HW3 for further FSD development (even though people in this thread are already treating it as such).

From the lastest leaks, the cars with HW4 don't even have any new additional or updated camera positions, so people were just working themselves into a frenzy way too early.

I think there was alot of speculation lately (myself included) but the re-introduction of radar seems to me to be a pretty big deal; these phantom braking issues (even outside of AP/EAP/FSDb) are pretty severe and it is looking like the full fix is the new radar.

 

[ddeflyer]

I’m not sure how you can prevent hardware progress after you’ve bought your car...I’m not sure that I would even want that.
It would be nice if ALL future upgrades could be retrofitted...including the 12v battery, the Ryzen chip, and now the new FSD chip...but I understand that is not always possible.
While Teslas are the most updatable cars in the world..there comes a point where if you want the very latest...you just have to buy a new car..like we used to do in the bad old days

I have no expectation to get new features un-related to FSD, the base car is the base car. My issue is in purchasing a vehicle to get the eventual FSD capabilities and paying $12K for a yet to be delivered product that is now sounding like it might never get fully delivered due to "out of date hardware". This feels more and more like a complete bait and switch with goal posts more fluid than a glass of water.

 

[argon2018]

I have no expectation to get new features un-related to FSD, the base car is the base car. My issue is in purchasing a vehicle to get the eventual FSD capabilities and paying $12K for a yet to be delivered product that is now sounding like it might never get fully delivered due to "out of date hardware". This feels more and more like a complete bait and switch with goal posts more fluid than a glass of water.

That's the frustrating part. They should upgrade the hardware/software until FSD is achieved. Nobody expects free hardware and software but we paid in advance for these features to get it in the future, as they said the prices would go up over time. Nobody is asking for a brand new car but the hardware and software necessary that was promised.

The problem is that once HW4 is delivered, our cars will depreciate significantly, unlike the prophet Elon's statement of appreciating assets.

He has repeatedly mentioned it in his tweets and presentations about how FSD is an appreciating asset... that's just not right.

If you see the video clip that I posted, which is from 2019, he said verbatim, "for sure, by the end of next year," we will have a million Robotaxis.

How can someone as genius as Musk possibly say that? mind-boggling

 

[argon2018]

and they are already working on HW4 to deliver the cars that are sitting in the lot per Teslascope tweet

 

[argon2018]

I think it's the opposite actually, in press releases I've seen, usually the forward looking disclaimer is put at the very end and they usually do not identify the specific statements that fall under it (there is no legal benefit to doing so, only negative consequences for example if you accidentally left out a particular one, so it makes zero sense to do so).


This statement has already been proven false as said in 2016 in regards to HW2 (even though he repeated the same claim even in this presentation) given HW2 was not ready for even FSD Beta.

Elon recently claim HW3 is still capable of whatever he defines as FSD, just that HW4 is further beyond that in safety levels vs a human. I quoted a part up thread, but others directed things into a tangent about Elon promising L5. The point I was trying to make is unlike the switch from HW2 to HW3, Tesla have not said they are abandoning HW3 for further FSD development (even though people in this thread are already treating it as such).

From the lastest leaks, the cars with HW4 don't even have any new additional or updated camera positions, so people were just working themselves into a frenzy way too early

HW 4 will be safer and HW5 will be safer than 4..

that's not the point. The point is that he said our cars with HW3 will be capable of making us passive income through the Tesla Ride sharing network .

 

[Bouba]

HW 4 will be safer and HW5 will be safer than 4..

that's not the point. The point is that he said our cars with HW3 will be capable of making us passive income through the Tesla Ride sharing network .

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Did you take that as a corporate promise ?
I thought it was funny...and demonstrated a man with vision (and humor).
Elon does not have the power to allow automatons on public roads...even if it would make you a profit

 

[stopcrazypp]

HW 4 will be safer and HW5 will be safer than 4..

that's not the point. The point is that he said our cars with HW3 will be capable of making us passive income through the Tesla Ride sharing network .

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Your point is irrelevant to my point, and you are again trying to steer things off to a tangent. My point is Elon is still insisting HW3 is capable of whatever he defines as FSD. Until HW4 or HW5 delivers that (and HW3 doesn't) or Tesla is officially abandoning HW3 software development, there isn't really anything to prove otherwise.

Elon didn't say you would get all future hardware updates, only the baseline capabilities (however you want to define those).

 

[Bouba]

It’s quite possible that even if the HW4 or 5 can’t be retrofitted....that when HW3 has reached its processing limits perhaps another solution can be retrofitted...a HW3.5...if the cars aren’t too dated by then

 

[KArnold]

I'm certainly no SME but I still think HW3 is capable of SAE L4 in a year or two. But I'm probably the only one (besides Tesla) with that opinion.

They've made it clear there will be no upgrades, although the optimistic side of me hopes that's wrong too. What seems pretty clear is that Tesla doesn't want to pay for such a hypothetical upgrade. From a financial and logistical perspective I agree. That would cut into Elon's billion dollar paycheck by a fraction which is his motivation. The ethical thing to do is irrelevant with him.

Obviously I may be in left field but I like it out here, at least until they turn off the lights.

 

[enemji]

Except for the fact they made changes to the UI to make it more clear to the driver what the car is planning to do (creep lines and messages).

These UI elements are unnecessary if FSD Beta was an L4/L5 system. I remember one of the people doing video of Cruise rides asked for a more detailed display of what the vehicle was planning to do, and they said no. Will have dig it up when I have the time.

Edit here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603550801942781954

Just because the FSD does not make a determination to make the left turn as quickly as you do does not make it not-an-FSD. It will creep, try to find more data, then some more data and then combine all of that to make some good information whether to continue with the action or stop and gather more data. It is doing FSD work. Just slower and more diligent than you would be.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I thought it was funny...and demonstrated a man with vision (and humor).

I think you could be on to something but is it really ok to use humor like this? If you look back at this forum there were a lot of people who didn’t get the joke. Me for example, I thought it was a joke but I didn’t think Elon was joking. He really appeared to believe what he was saying.

 

[zoomer0056]

This is a good video from Monroe Live about HW4 and upgrading to it.

 

[kabin]

HW 4 will be safer and HW5 will be safer than 4..

that's not the point. The point is that he said our cars with HW3 will be capable of making us passive income through the Tesla Ride sharing network .

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I think he said it was something like the greatest economic change ever and people just don't understand it yet. Right!

 

[kabin]

Just because the FSD does not make a determination to make the left turn as quickly as you do does not make it not-an-FSD. It will creep, try to find more data, then some more data and then combine all of that to make some good information whether to continue with the action or stop and gather more data. It is doing FSD work. Just slower and more diligent than you would be.

I'm willing to bet if HW3 isn't sufficiently cleaned-up before it gets tucked away it sets the high water mark for customer cost/reward of any autonomous driving software sold to the public. That's a far cry from Elon's economic breakthrough delusion.

 

[Bouba]

This is a good video from Monroe Live about HW4 and upgrading to it.

It seems like retrofitting is not possible....and people say Elon never tells it like it is!

 

[argon2018]

I think he said it was something like the greatest economic change ever and people just don't understand it yet. Right!

I don't disagree with his statement, but unfortunately, not for HW3, as he claimed literally every few months. Pretty sure 11.3 will not come out for a few months for wide release.

This is today in SoCal, just a mild drizzle (it says FSD unavailable, poor weather detected). Thank you, Elon for removing the radar from our car.

If this is the case with mild drizzle in Southern California, then how is FSD going to function in Midwest and East coast? it will be unavailable for most of the year.

 

[argon2018]

Just because the FSD does not make a determination to make the left turn as quickly as you do does not make it not-an-FSD. It will creep, try to find more data, then some more data and then combine all of that to make some good information whether to continue with the action or stop and gather more data. It is doing FSD work. Just slower and more diligent than you would be.

So you think they will develop the software for HW3 forever? once it's half-assed "feature complete as Elon calls it" they will stop... just like they screwed the HW2.5 people, we will get the same treatment.

But we will get more games in our cars to make it up.