This will not end well for BMW

[Zorg]

BMW is a small manufacturer, and their target customer is exactly the same as Tesla. Tesla is quickly eating their market. I don't think they'll make it. Their electric offering will be a case of too little too late.

Look at CA if you want a preview of what will happen to BMW.

 

[S'toon]

BMW is a small manufacturer, and their target customer is exactly the same as Tesla.

I disagree that they're identical.

BMW drivers tend to be a-holes. Not so much Tesla drivers.

 

[Casmium]

I disagree that they're identical.

BMW drivers tend to be a-holes. Not so much Tesla drivers.

There is that group of tesla drivers who park at mall superchargers or charging stations without plugging in just to get that spot, not so sure about those tesla drivers

 

[frankvb]

What happens when BMW drivers sell it and buy a Tesla?

I've seen enough EV drivers (and the occasional ICE) park at EV charging spots and pretend to have the charging cable connected and charging.

 

[SJC3]

Agree. I’m the typical bmw/Audi/mb/Lexus buyer...over 20 of these in the past 25 years and I just don’t care about their new models. This is a problem for the old guard. They just seem dated in styling and technology...a weird experience to not follow their product roadmaps anymore. The ice engines and transmissions feel crude. I still love hearing cars like like the new vette or AMG ripping down the road, but have no interest in owning one.

 

[Zorg]

Agree. I’m the typical bmw/Audi/mb/Lexus buyer...over 20 of these in the past 25 years and I just don’t care about their new models. This is a problem for the old guard. They just seem dated in styling and technology...a weird experience to not follow their product roadmaps anymore. The ice engines and transmissions feel crude. I still love hearing cars like like the new vette or AMG ripping down the road, but have no interest in owning one.

Once one drives a Tesla, everything else pales in comparison

 

[KenC]

This is how my wife's Cayenne looks like from inside. See the number of buttons, knobs and dials. Have used maybe 2 or 3 in all the time we have owned it. There was a time this looked nice and I remember when we first sat in it, it felt like an airplane cockpit. Now it looks like wasted real estate and complex. All that is in the history now. Would never go back to it compared to simplicity of a model 3/Y. Except for the glove box, the rest can be controlled easily from a single screen.

The joke my dad and I used to tell each other is that there's a German engineer behind each and every button in his car. Each German engineer has to iterate and reiterate and improve and buff and polish his button each and every year, for if he doesn't, he'll be eliminated.

Those German engineers are good, not only have all of their buttons survived, they've propagated and made many more little German engineers with new buttons that need polishing and buffing.

Whenever my dad got a new BMW we'd study the interior and see where a new button could be placed that didn't already have a button, and then we'd laugh when that space got used up the next iteration. Good times.

The German auto mfrs have gotten fat and happy. Their interiors used to be austere, only driving mattered, no cupholders! Now, it's button-itis. I blame Audi. They've always been the button company amongst the Germans. Audi's resurgence, led to MB and then BMW aping them and putting buttons everywhere. Of course, the above beauty pictured is a Porsche, and they haven't been immune.

Tesla's austere interiors more closely approach the original intent of driving, than these flugzeugcockpitz.

Just look at how many models they offer now. Take BMW for example, BMW has 7 X models, and 7 coupes/sedans, and everything comes in M versions, and a few token others. Back not so long ago, it was just a 3, 5 or 7, and the 7 barely sold. Now, if they can carve another niche out of the market, they will. How do you keep all the models straight? How do you keep all the buttons straight? Didn't anyone read the book about too much choice? What was it Paradox of Choice? Yeah... more is less.

 

[jboles]

For BMW in the US, the X3 is their best selling vehicle. The X3 is the source of most of the profits for BMW in the USA.

I just spec'd out a M40i X3 with white interior and gray 20" wheels. It costs $63K. My wifes Model Y with same trim will cost $56K

The Model Y is the same weight as the BMW with a full tank of gas. The Model Y is as fast as the BMW, cheaper to run, has better tech, and will probably have handling as good as the BMW because of the low center of gravity. I will not need to shut the motor down at a stoplight to meet fuel economy standards. It will not need oil changes and other ICE maintenance.

BMW has been killed by the Model 3 on the sedan side. I expect the same in the CUV space. Their car sales were down 14% last year, with the light trucks (X1-6) up 35% and accounting for all of the growth last year. How is BMW going to survive this?
What is their plan? Plug in hybrids? There are only so many people that will pay 8K more to get less performance and features.

I think BMW will be the first OEM to go bankrupt. Probably in 2022. They have about 12 billion in cash. Almost all of their assets are ICE (stranded). They have already committed to spend at least 17 billion for batteries and EV conversion. Where does that money come from once their CUV sales tank?

Not only in the US, it's already happening in the U.K.:
https://twitter.com/Rjdlandscapes
"I work for BMW new car sales(UK) over the past couple months have seen massive spike in customers saying they are looking to switch from their current BMW into a Tesla (10yr customers), are making the move to electric. We have nothing to offer them" Link

 

[jboles]

I do miss google maps but once you get used to Tesla maps, they are as good. Also, for some reason they never loose signal. Not sure if Tesla has a stronger antenna or whatever, but it is always connected to LTE where as my phone will show no signal in some remote areas.

Tesla nav is Google Maps underneath. Maps are also updated regularly in the background so even if you drive in areas that don't ahve LTE signal, the nav still works.

 

[FlatSix911]

Interesting reading... confirmation that BMW is in trouble and they know it.

BMW to cut half its internal-combustion engines as profits slump - Electrek

BMW on Thursday reported a 29% drop in profits in 2019. The company blamed the dip on high investments in new electrified technologies — and hefty legal costs from a pollution-related antitrust case in the European Union.

In the company’s fourth-quarter results statement yesterday, BMW revealed that up to 50% of the brand’s “traditional” powertrain variants will be discontinued from 2021. The company did not announce which ones, but its diesel engines, as well as V8 and V12 gas engines, are most likely to get chopped. This week, the company announced that it will not sell the BMW iX3 in the US, and it will discontinue its i8 plug-in hybrid.

 

[moa999]

The 'i' is all that's wrong with BMW.
They still think it needs to be a separate line with blue highlights everywhere.

The PHEVs eg the 330e are probably the most interesting. Possibly all electric within a city, but then you've still got all the maintenance issues with an old school ICE..

Remove the ICE engine and triple the range and they might be onto something.

 

[norbert-tx]

The joke my dad and I used to tell each other is that there's a German engineer behind each and every button in his car. Each German engineer has to iterate and reiterate and improve and buff and polish his button each and every year, for if he doesn't, he'll be eliminated.

Those German engineers are good, not only have all of their buttons survived, they've propagated and made many more little German engineers with new buttons that need polishing and buffing.

Whenever my dad got a new BMW we'd study the interior and see where a new button could be placed that didn't already have a button, and then we'd laugh when that space got used up the next iteration. Good times.

The German auto mfrs have gotten fat and happy. Their interiors used to be austere, only driving mattered, no cupholders! Now, it's button-itis. I blame Audi. They've always been the button company amongst the Germans. Audi's resurgence, led to MB and then BMW aping them and putting buttons everywhere. Of course, the above beauty pictured is a Porsche, and they haven't been immune.

Tesla's austere interiors more closely approach the original intent of driving, than these flugzeugcockpitz.

Just look at how many models they offer now. Take BMW for example, BMW has 7 X models, and 7 coupes/sedans, and everything comes in M versions, and a few token others. Back not so long ago, it was just a 3, 5 or 7, and the 7 barely sold. Now, if they can carve another niche out of the market, they will. How do you keep all the models straight? How do you keep all the buttons straight? Didn't anyone read the book about too much choice? What was it Paradox of Choice? Yeah... more is less.

What's wrong with buttons? You don't see airplane cockpits without buttons. Also, you are wrong, it was BMW with the iDrive knob that started this whole buttonless craze. Look it up. Don't be revisionist.

 

[ftmaybe]

What's wrong with buttons? You don't see airplane cockpits without buttons.

I'm a private pilot, though I haven't flown in a few years. Just my thoughts on planes giving this up as well:

Aircraft can be considerably more complex than a car. In the case of a commercial aircraft, we've gone from large aircraft keeping a third person in the cockpit as the "flight engineer" and sitting in front of a massive panel of switches and breakers, to no flight engineer at all and that massive panel has been relegated to a much smaller panel somewhere near the two pilots. Also these airplanes have been more and more converted to all screen. and from what I have seen, the overhead panel of switches seems mostly converted to status lights as the onboard computer handles the functionality now instead of the pilots. i.e., instead of running through a checklist to switch things on or off before takeoff, the checklist is "make sure X, Y and Z is green" or something. Airbus even went as far as to move the flightstick off to the side (instead of bolted to the floor in front of you, as was traditionally), they have put so much into automation that the manual control of the plane almost seems purposely positioned for "minimal use".

In the case of simpler, private aircraft, when I was flying there was already a huge push for wholly electrified panels with only a minimum of analog gauges as backup.

 

[KenC]

What's wrong with buttons? You don't see airplane cockpits without buttons. Also, you are wrong, it was BMW with the iDrive knob that started this whole buttonless craze. Look it up. Don't be revisionist.

I think you're reading a bit too much into my post. Did I say anything was "wrong with buttons"? Did I say anything about "this whole buttonless craze"?

 

[Uncle Paul]

Reality is that Tesla has sold 1 Million vehicles. These are all conquests from the ICE manufacturers.
They will soon be making 1 Million vehicles annually. All these will be ICE conquest vehicles.
Most will come from the others "Fun to drive" offerings.
Tesla will offer better value, better throttle responses and a more acceptable image.

 

[Zorg]

Actually Tesla can sell to the enthusiast beemer driver, the Prius eco conscious owner and to techies. That's a big market.

 

[CT200h]

Model Y will decimate BMW X3 , X4 sales in certain areas , Cali being the leader . Other makes as well Toyota and Mercedes will feel the drop. The effect will be noted even more than the 3 hit to sales of luxury sedans .
The other mfrs just have nothing to offer and every Y sold is a conquest of a traditional legacy ice sale.
Every sale is a loss of a new vehicle sale and revenue from service.

I don’t think they have a clue how hard this will hit , what’s especially bad is pent up demand for the Y will outweigh the normal drop off in sales during scary times such as now. In other words sales off an extra bit at bmw but those who ordered Y will mostly flow thru with purchase.

 

[rxlawdude]

I think with COVID-19 measures, it will put a severe dent in auto sales. It's a cascading effect resulting from mass closures and self-quarantine events.

Once recovery starts, watch Tesla recover more quickly than legacy makers.

 

[theganjaguru]

Agree with OP and not just BMW, but every manufacturer who doesn’t have a 200+ mile EV offering.

What’s especially sad about BMW, is that they had good something going. As a former i3 owner, I can vouch that car had some amazing tech. Ya, the range was a terrible 89 miles, the carbon fiber construction was amazing. Weight is the enemy of range and BMW managed a way to mass produce a carbon fiber shell to reduce weight.

Yet rather than expand to a higher range versions of the i3, BMW opted to go with hybrids in all their ICE offerings. Now they Cxl the ix3? Maybe they realized it was too inferior to survive against Tesla.

BMW is hardly the only ICE driven company that could go under as Tesla continues to eat everyone’s lunch.

 

[Shark2222]

While I'm very enthusiastic about ordering a Model Y, some of the statements in this thread are completely delusional and downright scary. You need to have a more thorough understanding of the auto industry worldwide to get the big picture. We should all be thankful Elon and his underlings are running the company and not you guys.

BMW bankrupt in 2022? Take a look at the per vehicle profit of BMW versus Tesla, and the fact BMW sold nearly 7 times as many units worldwide as Tesla last year. Judge their products however you like, but few of the 2.5 + million who bought from them last year had a gun held to their head when doing so.

And their financial capability is multitudes beyond Tesla's. Not only do their financials look a whole lot better than Tesla's right now, there's zero chance the German government would allow them to fail. Take a close look at what % of the German GDP the automobile industry represents versus any other country in the world.

And amazingly after everything they have been through, VW is alive and well and selling something like 30 times the number of units that Tesla does. And MB is right behind BMW.

Yeah, change is painful, and each of them has big pain coming. They have no choice, and they know it. It's not Tesla that's bringing the pain. It's the fines that will be levered by the EU for failure to change. But these three are not going away, and Tesla has no monopoly on new EV tech and nowhere near the financial resources the others do.

Elon needs to keep his head down and try to get the company as far out ahead as possible before the onslaught of competitive EV's arrives. Not saying Tesla is going to failure, and I do believe there will be a seat at the table for Tesla in 2030, although I do agree with the OP the industry is going to look a whole lot different by then.