Toyota chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada remains amazingly ignorant of what Tesla has accomplished

[Jeff N]

The Insight may have beat the Prius to the US market, but it made its initial debut in Japan two years after Toyota's offering (1999 vs. 1997).

And Toyota filed their preliminary initial Japanese patent paperwork on the Prius hybrid design on the same day, September 24, 1996, that GM's patent that includes a description of the same design was formally published by the US patent office (GM's application was filed on February 17, 1995). Toyota's Prius patent wasn't formally published in the US until May 25, 1999 and cited GM's patent as prior art.

Toyota used their design to build passenger cars. GM used a derivative of their original design to build transit bus powertrains and only later SUVs, pickup trucks, and eventually passenger cars like the 2016 Volt and 2016 Malibu hybrid.

Revenge of the Two-Mode Hybrid - HybridCars.com

 

[ecarfan]

QUOTE: "I must say up front that we're not against electric vehicles. But in order for electric vehicles to cover long distances, they currently need to be loaded with a lot of batteries that take a considerable amount of time to charge. There's also the issue of battery life," he said.

And then I pointed out that Tesla has already shown that those are solved problems. The vast majority of EV owners charge at home and that takes essentially no time at all since they are probably sleeping. Tesla Superchargers provide enough charge in half an hour to get to the next Supercharger. So charging is a solved problem.

I also pointed out that Tesla battery packs show only about 5% capacity loss at 100K miles. So battery life is a solved problem.

Can you provide some clear evidence for these? if not, I suggest not to state hear says and rumors as facts If Tesla has clearly shown that battery is cheaper than gas engines, and TCO is lower...

And then you posted about two different issues than Uchiyamada was talking about and that I was rebutting. He talked about charging time and battery life. Not what you posted about.

 

[ecarfan]

Toyota has the ability to make a BEV today. The problem is that they are a company that only wants to do things in relatively high volume. They don't have the supply chain to make a relatively high volume BEV - AND - make a profit doing it. That is what they are waiting for.

If that is the explanation for why Toyota is not making BEVs, how do you explain Toyota investing billions in making a tiny number of FCVs, a technology which clearly has no future and is essentially a scam?

Yes, I know why Toyota is making FCVs: because they get 3 ZEV credits for them in the CARB states instead of 1 ZEV credit.

But if anyone in Toyota management had any foresight they would have invested those billions in BEVs and given up on their FCV investment 5 years ago, because it is all money down the drain.

 

[SageBrush]

If that is the explanation for why Toyota is not making BEVs, how do you explain Toyota investing billions in making a tiny number of FCVs, a technology which clearly has no future and is essentially a scam?

Yes, I know why Toyota is making FCVs: because they get 3 ZEV credits for them in the CARB states instead of 1 ZEV credit.

But if anyone in Toyota management had any foresight they would have invested those billions in BEVs and given up on their FCV investment 5 years ago, because it is all money down the drain.

Toyota built a $1B chip factory for the Prius before they had sold a single car. They clearly are capable of placing big bets but hindsight is 20:20. I agree that they bet wrong on FCV and look forward to them changing course.

By the way, it was not just Honda and Toyota that bet on FCV; the US has spent enormous sums on the technology; it only stopped under Obama. Even GM has spent billions.

 

[mspohr]

He is running a business with razor-thin margins, for the most price-sensitive market (including developing nations).
They shave off $3 on headlamps, $1 off handles, $9.60 off the nav screen, a few bucks off the cloth of the seats, and they squeeze these prices on every inch the cars.
The idea of then adding $5,000-$10,000 for batteries is ludicrous in that market.

Replacing a fossil drive train (engine, transmission) with an electric motor and batteries is close to a wash. Tesla will offer a vehicle at a compelling price with a 5 year TCO less than fossil.
If Toyota had had the foresight to invest in batteries rather than H2, they could do this also. Unfortunately, they do not have the battery supply chain to deliver low cost batteries so they are screwed.

 

[SageBrush]

Tesla will offer a vehicle at a compelling price with a 5 year TCO less than fossil.

For the near-luxury car market.

Elon has said that Tesla does not want to build $20k cars. A little bid odd at face value given the Tesla mission statement, but I take it as an acknowledgement that quality EVs are not price competitive in that market segment. Hopefully in the future. Perhaps Nissan will succeed.

 

[verygreen]

The vast majority of EV owners charge at home and that takes essentially no time at all since they are probably sleeping. Tesla Superchargers provide enough charge in half an hour to get to the next Supercharger. So charging is a solved problem.

Well, in Japan I would imagine lots of people are live in apartments with no easy charging access.
Overall I would not put too much weight on whatever Japanese CEOs (and Japanese in general) say when they don't have a product in this space ready (yet?), it's just one of their cultural quirks, they also won't tell you anything in a straight way and I would not put too much trust into whatever translation was provided, I looked at the video and it seems to be chopped in pieces with a loud voiceover translation of what's being said you can hardly hear the real thing.

 

[SageBrush]

Overall I would not put too much weight on whatever Japanese CEOs (and Japanese in general) say when they don't have a product in this space ready (yet?),

Unlike American CEOs ?

 

[verygreen]

Unlike American CEOs ?

There are undeniable culture differences between the two. American CEO would often tell you when they have no plans of doing something in no uncertain words.

 

[SageBrush]

There are undeniable culture differences between the two. American CEO would often tell you when they have no plans of doing something in no uncertain words.

And they will lie brazenly when there is profit at stake.

As one example, have you been following the fossil fuel industry at all ?

 

[Shock-On-T]

Replacing a fossil drive train (engine, transmission) with an electric motor and batteries is close to a wash.

That depends on how many dollars is 'close'.
Even $500 is a fortune when it comes to building, shipping, paying tax and dealer and still trying to make money selling a car for $14,990.
What percentage of Toyota's profit margin would $500 represent?

 

[mspohr]

For the near-luxury car market.

Elon has said that Tesla does not want to build $20k cars. A little bid odd at face value given the Tesla mission statement, but I take it as an acknowledgement that quality EVs are not price competitive in that market segment. Hopefully in the future. Perhaps Nissan will succeed.

A $35,000 Model 3 is nowhere near "luxury".
The 5 year TCO of a Model 3 will be less than a Toyota Camry or BMW 3 series.
(ref Zach Shaheen)

 

[FlyingKiwi]

I only take issue with the battery life aspect.

For Nissan it is true, but not for Tesla.
So far as I know the Toyota plug-in options like my Prime do not have an active TMS so that probably also informs his view since they have to reserve over 30% of nominal capacity to preserve battery longevity.

The real issue here though is offering ICE like performance for ICE like prices. Only one company has solved that riddle and it took a Gigafactory and SC network to kinda sorta get there. That is, what, a 10 - 20 Billion USD bet ? I'm not surprised that only Tesla has taken up the gamble.

This. And as said above, Tesla has "kinda sorta" managed it.. But are still 2-3 development cycles (at least) from doing it at Toyota corolla prices.

 

[mmd]

And then I pointed out that Tesla has already shown that those are solved problems. The vast majority of EV owners charge at home and that takes essentially no time at all since they are probably sleeping. Tesla Superchargers provide enough charge in half an hour to get to the next Supercharger. So charging is a solved problem.

I also pointed out that Tesla battery packs show only about 5% capacity loss at 100K miles. So battery life is a solved problem.
And then you posted about two different issues than Uchiyamada was talking about and that I was rebutting. He talked about charging time and battery life. Not what you posted about.

I was referring to your claim that "Tesla's battery pack cost is probably the lowest in the industry right now and costs are trending downward.". Do you have any clear evidence of this?
When he said "a lot of batteries", he obviously also implied that they cost a ton.

I also won't call a 30-60 minute recharge time under normal circumstances with occasional 1-4 hour wait times to reach the stall "a solved problem". This won't fly for majority of people.

 

[conman]

Clearly just a political stunt. History is littered with leaders saying garbage they don't remotely believe because it was considered politically insensitive at the time. This is just Toyota protecting the industry they have developed over decades and can pull any kind of spin to convince the average consumer that their current approach is still correct. Killing their cash cow and process for technology they haven't remotely invested in would be a ridiculously stupid move. The Prius was not remotely about bringing electric vehicles to the masses in the first place. It was always too expensive and relied so little on electric technology that it was actually an embarrassment compared to similar cost vehicles - it was only ever there as a publicity stunt and to cash in on government rebates and incentives; in that regard it's been a huge success but its current incarnation remains a joke by current EV standards.

 

[SageBrush]

The 5 year TCO of a Model 3 will be less than a Toyota Camry

I don't know anything about Camry, but color me very skeptical if the alternative choice is Corolla or Civic. As a serial owner of Prius variants I can tell you that Toyota makes cars that can be expected to last 20 years/250k miles and cost as little as 0.5 cents a mile for fairly simple DIY maintenance.

I'm pretty sure Honda does equally well.

 

[plumazul]

I also won't call a 30-60 minute recharge time under normal circumstances with occasional 1-4 hour wait times to reach the stall "a solved problem". This won't fly for majority of people.

Where is this happening? I recently took a 2K mile road trip and saw none of this. I DID enjoy some "60 minute" sit down meals while my car charged, but I'm going to guess that this activity would "fly" with the majority of people. Most SC stops were much shorter.

 

[cwerdna]

The Insight may have beat the Prius to the US market, but it made its initial debut in Japan two years after Toyota's offering (1999 vs. 1997).
Toyota Prius - Wikipedia
Honda Insight - Wikipedia

Yep. The NHW10 Prius went on sale in Japan in Dec 97 ("Original" at John's Stuff - Toyota Prius History). The US never got that version. It was JDM only and didn't have a color touchscreen. It instead had buttons under the color LCD. It also had D-cell format NiMH batteries instead of prismatic format.

The 1st version we got was the NHW11 (labled Classic at the above URL) that looks similar on the outside to the NHW10, like a Toyota Echo of its time.

 

[verygreen]

And they will lie brazenly when there is profit at stake.

As one example, have you been following the fossil fuel industry at all ?

That's not the point.

The weaselworded noncommitment while also common in US at the top corporate level, seems to be a cultural norm in Japan where you need to second-guess what they say.
See translated quote (accuracy unknown) in the OP for the example, they are not saying they are not interested in the BEVs or that they won't make them or whatever. They really just say a bunch of mostly true statements:
"in order for electric vehicles to cover long distances, they currently need to be loaded with a lot of batteries" - true
"that take a considerable amount of time to charge" - also true (upthread there are calls for "but people will charge at home" - note he specifically points long range travel, so presumably beyond what a single battery change allows, this is before even getting into if ubiquitous is even there today in Japan for people in big cities that often live in highrises (no idea how's the parking situation like for them)).
"There's also the issue of battery life" - this is sort of true. Don't believe me? Check Tesla warranty documents, they don't warranty against degradation at all. There are some signs already that the new chemistry (post 85kWh) degrades much faster than the old one.
Then you infer that they don't plan to do it, but it might equally well mean "but we are working on overcoming these issues" - ambiguity!

 

[cwerdna]

Thanks to @DaveT for bringing this article to my attention in his weekly email newsletter: Toyota chairman: Battery technology must evolve before widespread electric vehicle adoption

QUOTE: "I must say up front that we're not against electric vehicles. But in order for electric vehicles to cover long distances, they currently need to be loaded with a lot of batteries that take a considerable amount of time to charge. There's also the issue of battery life," he said.
-------------------------------------

But Telsa has clearly demonstrated that those are solved issues. Tesla's battery pack cost is probably the lowest in the industry right now and costs are trending downward. The Supercharger network solves the long distance driving and charging issue and that network continues to expand at a relatively modest cost to Tesla.

How can Uchiyamada not know about that? Or is he just saying those things publicly to try to confuse people and make excuses for Toyotas failure to bring BEVs to market?

Uchiyamada and his competitive analysis folks have also likely looked at Tesla's financials and torn apart a Model S and X, long ago.

Tesla may have "solved" these issues, yet they keep bleeding $ each quarter. Again, they've lost a net ~$3.2 billion since they've publicly reported financials. This is the the sum of all their profits on their money losing quarters (almost all of them) + their few (2, IIRC) profitable quarters). (Cue the people who are going to mark disagree then give excuses (some of them wrong) then try to explain away Tesla's losses and then have their cake and eat it to by claiming Tesla's profitable.)

Not everyone has the ability to charge an EV at home or work or install a 240 volt EVSE for faster charging w/o considerable expense.

Setting up a large comprehensive DC FC is expensive in addition to the costs of keeping it going (repairs, electricity costs, demand charges, etc.) beside being time consuming (site evaluation, permitting, construction, etc.)

As for the last statement, maybe. Toyota has made noises every now and then about an EV project (e.g. Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda to run electric-car division). Maybe they'll change their tune when they have something ready that will be mass market and beyond a CA compliance car (gen 2 Rav4 EV discontinued years ago).

I suspect they have EV projects in the works but are waiting for the costs and technologies to be ready (by their standard) before they make a big splash w/their own non-CA compliance BEV. And, they'd probably like consumer tastes and perceptions to change. You won't believe the types of excuses people make to rule out BEVs.

Remember, in the US, our BEV take rate per August 2017 Dashboard - HybridCars.com is only 0.6%. Look at those BEV sales numbers vs. August 2017 YTD U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 298 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR.

An estimated 8,835 new BEVs were sold/leased in total in the US that month. In comparison, Toyota in the US sold 43K RAV4's and 37K Camrys and 27K Corollas during that month.

Both the OP and I live in a California bubble where EVs and PHEVs are WAY more available and popular than much of the rest of the US. If you're a TiVoCommunity member (free), https://www.tivocommunity.com/commu...-electric-vehicle.552827/page-8#post-11292195 documented how hard it was to even get any sort of BEV besides Teslas and Leaf in Louisville, Kentucky which the poster says has a population of 1.27 million.

After all, Steve Jobs was famous for saying people didn't "need" this or "nobody" would want to ____ on ____. Years later, he unveils something w/exactly that. It's highly likely he made his earlier statements since he had nothing to sell with that.