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trading
- Thread starter Boomer19
- Start date
Might be a stupid move, but I converted some shares to a JUN22 $1000 LEAP. (Yes, I'm a small timer and quite risk-averse)
I was on the fence for a while about this but this is what pushed me over the edge:
- if the ER turns out to be great, I have some extra leverage (not the best option for that, but I don't like to gamble);
- if the SP drops (after ER for example), there is plenty of time till expiry for the option to recover AND I plan to add more LEAPS in this case.
Reason I got edgy is currently I'm only holding a JAN22 $640 LEAP which is up 500% but I don't want to get rid of it before either we reach JAN21 or the stock goes to $1000. We've only just reached the juicy part.
However, if the stock goes crazy (in a positive sense) I want to be able to take something of the table and keep a leveraged position.
Also, I'm quite convinced $1000 is possible by early 2022. If not I'll roll the call over around JUN21.
Not advice. Just sharing.
Anyone buying short term calls for the ER? I looked at some of them but found them all so pricey.
Good call imo. I'm fairly confident in my Jun'22 $990s tbh. As long as they are not short on batteries, I have a hard time seeing them do less than $5B in EBIT in 2021. If that comes true, we'd only need a ~40x trailing EBIT multiple to break even.
I think more likely they'll do ~$7-8B, maybe as much as $10-11B in EBIT in 2021, and something like a 60-80x trailing EBIT multiple also seems more reasonably than 40x for TSLA in that position. That could lead to anywhere from a $2k - $4k SP by early 2022.
Main risk in my opinion is insufficient batteries.
I'm traveling next week or two, and I might write a more detailed blog about these options including my financial models then.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Mainly the 2 huge up days, fading on Tuesday and down quite a bit in early trading. Ofcourse, I get a lot of the days wrong. BTW, I didn't think it would be such a big down day.
anthonyj
Stonks
$620 friday
$700-$1000 post earnings
Elon tweeted a Stormy Weather song, pls refer to past Elon Tweets about stormy weather, stock made really good gains
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Used this dip in early trading in Europe to start buying mid term calls.
I hope to see lower prices temporarily later this week due to monthly options expiry.
Will spread buying down to $440 ahead of Q4 ER.
I hope to see lower prices temporarily later this week due to monthly options expiry.
Will spread buying down to $440 ahead of Q4 ER.
Last edited:
jeewee3000
Active Member
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
jeewee3000
Active Member
jeewee3000
Active Member
bought a lotto 24JAN2020 call with $600 strike price @ $3,00
Yeah... I got skittish and closed that yesterday (had purchased when higher, is was way red). Glad to know it went to a good home.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Thanks. Donors are ensured all proceeds go to the "jeewee300 Dry Powder Fund" (TM).Yeah... I got skittish and closed that yesterday (had purchased when higher, is was way red). Glad to know it went to a good home.
On a serious note, only bought it this morning, so won't make a fortune on it. Currently trading around $5,00.
Whelp, that'll show me not to trade on an empty stomach! (Or before news that I couldn't predict comes out
)Given the last two days, you may well be in the money by expiry.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
TSLA following markets down (might be fear of corona spreading outside china) might be an issue for the next days.
Today asian markets down.
Could be an opportunity.
Big volatility right now.
Be cautious.
Today asian markets down.
Could be an opportunity.
Big volatility right now.
Be cautious.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Looked at 31JAN20 calls/puts to see if I could play ER at a decent price.
Not an advice, but as expected the premiums are insanely high. I'll just be holding my stock/LEAPS.
(Might be OT since I'm stating I'm NOT trading)
Not an advice, but as expected the premiums are insanely high. I'll just be holding my stock/LEAPS.
(Might be OT since I'm stating I'm NOT trading
)
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I bought 540/550 bull spread on Monday for $4 and made $6. So, now I paid $10 for a 570/595 spread. Might buy a put hedge on Wednesday hoping to breakeven if the SP goes down after ER.Looked at 31JAN20 calls/puts to see if I could play ER at a decent price.
Not an advice, but as expected the premiums are insanely high. I'll just be holding my stock/LEAPS.
(Might be OT since I'm stating I'm NOT trading
I've executed two different trades going into Q4 earnings, both small.
- A $900 strike call calendar spread (long 10x 2/21, short 6x 1/31) lotto ticket, executed such that my cost is $0.
- 2x $480-$450 put credit spreads expiring 1/31 at an average credit of $4.20 per spread. If we drop significantly again tomorrow, I will consider adding one more and/or capping some long puts expiring 2/21 as spreads.
someone bought 75mill in Apr 380 calls today. Off-exchange transaction. Was not a sweep.
What's your read on the transaction? Those calls should have very little time value and will act almost like shares. Who would be selling, and who would be buying? Those wouldn't be any of the hedges held by Tesla, would they?
Could be a 3x leverage play for earnings. Less issues with IV.
Difficult to say. Obviously a size player though.
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