TSLA Investor Discussions

[CyberDutchie]

And this time on significant volume! Now approaching 3.0B shares traded (avg around 1.0B). Previous attempts to break upwards were all on terribly low volumes. Fingers crossed!

You mean million shares, not billion.

 

[NigelM]

And this time on significant volume! Now approaching 3.0B shares traded (avg around 1.0B). Previous attempts to break upwards were all on terribly low volumes. Fingers crossed!

Still, volume was pushed by a (relatively) small number of big trades.

 

[Citizen-T]

Please don't, C-T. I've learnt a lot about market movements and trading thanks to your informative posts!

Oh, I'm not going anywhere. Just had enough for today.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Here are some excerpts from the research note from Morgan Standey that caused the uptick today:

September 17, 2012 Tesla Motors Inc. The Ramp Doesn’t Matter

What's Changed

Rating: Underweight to Overweight
Price Target: $45.00 to $50.00

It seems launching a car is every bit as difficult as launching a rocket, maybe more. Docking to a space station involves inevitable flaws that can be corrected during a mission. A new Model S has to be perfect right out of the box. We think fears over a slower ramp are overdone. Upgrade to OW.

Why buy the stock now?

1. Consensus expectations have fallen materially. 2013 EPS estimates have declined 72% from $1.71 to $0.48 in the past 12 months.

2. Sluggish Model S ramp-up the worst-kept secret in the industry. Reports of significant delays for early signature reservation holders are widely disseminated on Tesla’s blogs. We forecast Model S deliveries to hit 230 in 3Q, 2k in 4Q and 15k for all of 2013. And that’s OK.

3. Share price underperformance. Out of the 26 other auto-related stocks in our coverage, Tesla has underperformed all but five YTD.

Since our 2011 initiation, we have urged investors to allow for a slower Model S ramp as Tesla prioritizes unit perfection over quantity. While the market doesn’t like the ambiguity of ‘soft’ vs. ‘hard’ targets, we think Tesla has the right idea: Get it right the first time. Efficacy of the product is what matters most.

Raising our price target to $50 from $45 due to pull-forward of Gen 3 vehicle. Bear case raised to $10 from $0 as we recognize positive value for the Tesla brand and IP. Our upgrade is not meant to ‘call the bottom’ in the stock, but rather to mark an improved risk-reward relative to other stocks under our coverage.

 

[Doug_G]

"We forecast Model S deliveries to hit 230 in 3Q, 2k in 4Q and 15k for all of 2013. And that’s OK."

Wow, a sensible analyst. Who'd a thunk?

 

[NigelM]

^^^ Well he's probably right for Q3, but I suspect he's going to be (pleasantly) surprised about Q4.

 

[CyberDutchie]

The Analyst That Sent Tesla Shares Surging

Bloomberg interviews analyst Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley about the TSLA upgrade.

 

[zack]

Hmm...

 

[xhawk101]

Awesome! Listen for comparison to Bugatti veyron!

from my Samsung galaxy s3

 

[nygiants242]

What do you guys think of making a risky play on the Supercharger announcement Monday? Depending on how this week plays out, I am thinking of moving my
Cash in TSLA to see if there is some pop on Monday.

Thoughts?

 

[Robert.Boston]

The announcement could cut either way, from an investor's POV. While long-term investors might become more comfortable that EV adoption rates will rise as a result of the SC network, short-term investors may see the SC network as a negative because it is a further demand on Tesla's cash and on its management team's scarce time/attention. Frankly, I expect the short-term POV to dominate, so we may see a price dip.

What the market is looking for, IMO, is cash in the door == car deliveries. With the current rate of cash burn, Tesla will need to do a secondary offering unless they can crank up deliveries.

 

[bonnie]

I'm looking forward to the day where 1) full ramp has occurred, 2) reservations continue to fill the pipeline, and 3) enough time has passed that investors quit worrying about some catastrophic quality problem. That can't happen overnight.

In the meantime, I'm long.

 

[daniel]

What do you guys think of making a risky play on the Supercharger announcement Monday? Depending on how this week plays out, I am thinking of moving my
Cash in TSLA to see if there is some pop on Monday.

Thoughts?

I am risk-averse. You're talking about gambling on short-term prospects. Plus, though the announcement comes Monday, everyone knows it is coming. I think being long on Tesla is a good position, but gambling on any given day's market reaction is just that: gambling. What do I think? Bad idea. I've got 200 shares and am happy with them. I'm holding them for the long term. If it drops way down again I might pick up another 50. But not on hopes that the market will react to an announcement everyone knows is coming.

Caveat: I always think that short-term investing is a bad idea.

 

[smorgasbord]

What do you guys think of making a risky play on the Supercharger announcement Monday? Depending on how this week plays out, I am thinking of moving my
Cash in TSLA to see if there is some pop on Monday.

Thoughts?

Do you believe Musk's pre-announcement hype? It's probably the closest thing we've had to a Steve Jobs Reality Distortion Field in years. If you believe Musk when he says that it's the announcement that will make electric cars "make sense" to people for the first time, then you should consider it. I don't think the market has priced any such major impact announcement into the stock.

If, however, you think it's just an expensive and ambitious plan for a bunch of quick chargers that let people drive across the country with 1/2 hour breaks every 3 hours, then you should pass.

However, you're willing to take a long-term view, then buying TSLA stock before the announcement to either sell quickly if it pops or if it doesn't then hold for a couple years isn't so bad.

 

[vfx]

Do you believe Musk's pre-announcement hype? It's probably the closest thing we've had to a Steve Jobs Reality Distortion Field in years.....

I have to keep reminding myself that the announcements are not meant for me (us) who have a deep understanding of electric capabilities.

When Elon says something about how amazing it is then probably not so amazing to me in that I can probably guess close to what he is planning. (though he always throws in a coupla' wow twists). For the general public, these are usually sit up and take notice advancements so the hype was probably justified.

 

[Discoducky]

Sigh...I give up.

Some of us quieter folk really like your analysis so keep it coming.

 

[Citizen-T]

I have to keep reminding myself that the announcements are not meant for me (us) who have a deep understanding of electric capabilities.

Yes, I think this is key and very insightful.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I have to keep reminding myself that the announcements are not meant for me (us) who have a deep understanding of electric capabilities.

Yes, I think this is key and very insightful.

Indeed. Very much the way I - as a techie - find all the hype around an incremental refresh to a smartphone rather silly. All that marketing hoopla is really aimed at Joe Schmoe.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

What do you guys think of making a risky play on the Supercharger announcement Monday? Depending on how this week plays out, I am thinking of moving my
Cash in TSLA to see if there is some pop on Monday.

Thoughts?

As stated earlier it depends on how earth shattering you think the announcement will be. The smart money has been bidding up the stock for a week now, and it's rarely a good idea to buy into a rapidly appreciating stock if you are hoping to just flip it. Of course I thought the real estate market looked overpriced in 2003 and a lot of folks made bank flipping properties for years after that

(And to clarify, I don't think the stock is overpriced right now. I'm just a sceptic about trying to play a short game)

 

[daniel]

Sigh...I give up.

It is not my intention to try to make you stop posting. I am skeptical of chart analyses and will continue to post my opinions. I hope you will continue to post yours. I do not understand why crossing the 50 or 200 day moving average is significant, or why we should expect the price to stay above or below once it crosses that line. But I read your posts with interest. I'm not a short-term investor and I doubt I ever will be. But learning what motivates others, or how they make decisions, is always interesting. Do keep posting. I will also. I think the short-term fluctuations are a drunken walk, or Brownian motion, sufficiently chaotic to be unpredictable. Contrary opinions are always welcome.