TSLA Investor Discussions

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Does anyone know what time the earnings call takes place on Monday morning?

8 am ET.
You can listen to it here: Tesla - Events Presentations

 

[Zzzz...]

Lets see how good is a crystal ball of the street... And they got revenue prediction down to $10k

Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) is estimated to post a Q3 loss at $0.90 per share on revenue of $48.29 million.

benzinga.com

 

[Citizen-T]

@thedrinkerofkoolaid:
Even though it's a little bit difficult to exactly follow your train of thought, I think I get what you mean and what you are asking. And it's not a stupid question and I would love for some of the people here with a lot of insight to comment on it. I have myself struggeled with the fact that it would seem that the short interest i >50% of what we could call the "actual free float" - i.e. the number of shares outstanding which are NOT owned by Mr. Musk, other insiders, big institutions and big mutual funds. I wouldn't know though if it's correct to assume that "mutual funds don't short by principle" but I would think that in realilty it's quite unlikely that mutual funds would take a big short position in such a volatile stock. So I have asked myself the same question that you are asking: Who is actually shorting the almost 30 million shares that are shorted? Are these shares shorted for the reason you would normally think, or is it a kind of artificial situation (like the one you are describing/implying)? None the less, the short interest is hughe and if (when) the time comes that the stock climbs higher these positions will need to be covered.

I can find plenty of shorts without resorting to conspiracy theories. Hedge funds probably make up the bulk of the shorts. By their nature they are drawn to volatile stocks and Tesla's float is pretty tiny compared to the amount of cash many of those funds command.

 

[Norbert]

Q3 2012 Shareholder Letter is out:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2155426097x0x611344/42cb80fa-6f64-4e48-93ff-2da29de21acc/Q3%202012%20Shareholder%20Letter%20Final.pdf

As our supply chain and internal manufacturing processes improved, production has continued to ramp into Q4, with over 200 cars produced this past week. Absent short term cost inefficiencies, such as expediting parts delivery and the learning curve of new employees, we are now at a production rate capable of generating positive operating cash flow. Given Tesla’s rate of progress over the past few months, we are confident of being able to deliver 2,500 to 3,000 Model S vehicles in Q4 and over 20,000 in 2013.

 

[Norbert]

More quotes:

With growing public exposure of Model S, we continue to set records for new reservations. In Q3, we received almost 2,900 new reservations, over 30% more than the prior record in Q2. As we began converting our early reservations into firm, non-refundable orders, cancellations increased as well. The net effect still demonstrated a continued growth in our net reservation count to over 13,200, up from 11,500 at the end of Q2. We expect Q4 to set a new high water mark in net reservations.

We are maintaining our 2012 revenue guidance of $400 - $440 million, including our expectation of approximately 2,500 – 3,000 Model S deliveries to customers in Q4. Towards the end of the quarter, we expect to achieve positive free cash flow (cash flow from operations, inclusive of capital expenditures) in spite of short term cost inefficiencies.

 

[JRP3]

Missed estimates by $0.02, I don't think it will significantly affect share price, maybe not at all considering the other positive announcements.
I thought this was odd though:

Our internally developed and manufactured Supercharger is substantially more powerful than any charging technology to date, providing almost 100 kilowatts of direct DC power to Model S. This enables Model S owners to regain up to 165 miles of range in 30 minutes with the 85 kWh car,

Does that mean the 60 kWh car charges at a slower rate?

 

[SteveG3]

I read this as a very strong quarter. what caught my eye:

over 200 cars produced last week
this rate is at threshold for positive operating cash flow

in a month expect 400/week production rate
toward the end of the quarter positive free cash flow (includes capital expenditures)

resolved a myriad of supply chain issues

confident in 2,500-3,000 Q4 deliveries, 20,000 in 2013

reaffirming 25% gross margin target for 2013

I also like how they highlighted the supercharger network, and the free use. seems they have hopes that this will get some free word of mouth in coverage of the earnings announcement. announced capability to drive Boston to D.C. expected online next month. I think tangibility of supercharger buildup will make a big difference in consumer receptivity to model S.

of course, they did miss by $.02, details on call may or may not seem as positive as release, and a less Tesla friendly administration may be elected tomorrow, but all in all sounds like quite strong improvement through the quarter regardless of stock movement today, or this week.

 

[Norbert]

Does that mean the 60 kWh car charges at a slower rate?

Or that it can't charge as long at that rate, perhaps. (Or both.)

 

[stevezzzz]

Does that mean the 60 kWh car charges at a slower rate?

I think this reflects the fact that once a battery on charge reaches 50% SOC, the Supercharger starts slowing the rate of charge to protect the battery. I.e., the only way to gain 165 miles of range in 30 minutes is to start the charge with an 85kWh battery at 0% SOC. With any other combination of battery capacity and SOC the charging rate starts to drop in less than 30 minutes, hence the 'up to 165 miles of range in 30 minutes' caveat.

 

[JRP3]

I wouldn't think the charger starts cutting back as early as 50% SOC, do we have evidence of that?

 

[stevezzzz]

I wouldn't think the charger starts cutting back as early as 50% SOC, do we have evidence of that?

I was reading between the lines and should have said 'approximately 50%', but I remember reading real world reports of Supercharger users who experienced the tailing off of charge rate. Will do a forum search and report back.

Updated post:

The link below is to a blog post by a new owner who took factory delivery of his S and drove back to LA using the Supercharger network. It is most likely the same event the Q3 letter references.

From Fremont to LA, SuperCharging all the way - Blogs - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

 

[T@oo]

Live Webcast only for registered user?

 

[JRP3]

Anyone can register.

- - - Updated - - -

Wake up Elon! :wink:

 

[JRP3]

Gen3 vehicle expected to have access to supercharger network!

- - - Updated - - -

Someone should have given Elon a RedBull or something, way too low key. I had trouble hearing many of the answers.

 

[Norbert]

Wake up Elon! :wink:

I found it re-assuring that the information he gave was effortlessly consistent.

Gen3 vehicle expected to have access to supercharger network!

Yes, and expected for "most" future vehicles. And since he also said that, to makes sense, it requires a range of 200+ miles (@ 55 mph), we should be able to conclude that "most" Gen3s are expected to have a 200+ mile range.

 

[SteveG3]

Elon did sound a bit sleepy, perhaps added to his natural tendency to just say what's on his mind :smile:

this is from my notes, so I won't put in quotes, but I was quite encouraged as I heard him essentially say...

Recently I had stated Tesla is at a critical point in its survival, the valley of death people refer to. I feel we're through that valley. I feel Tesla's really past the point of high risk.

 

[timdorr]

Any production numbers shared, besides rate?

 

[mdh]

Will tesla need to raise more cash? Looks like their buffer is getting low.

 

[ckessel]

Will tesla need to raise more cash? Looks like their buffer is getting low.

300 million is low?

From the shareholder letter.

We concluded the quarter with total cash of $109 million. This includes short term restricted cash, primarily to
prefund the first DoE loan payment due in December 2012. Just after quarter end, we raised $222 million in net
proceeds in a follow-on offering. This brought total available cash to $330 million heading into Q4.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Will tesla need to raise more cash? Looks like their buffer is getting low.

If they can sustain a 200-400/week production and delivery rate, and see a decent profit margin, then their drain on cash for Q4 should go to zero, and Q1 go positive. So I say no.