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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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I agree with @JRP3: if this is bad news, they'd want to delay it. So, I'm hopeful that it's good news.
FalconNinetyD
Active Member
I think it was originally scheduled for today. A few weeks ago they moved it until next week, then adjusted it again because of the elections.
Zzzz...
Member
And you are getting angry over your own skepticism?
Hmm... Not sure. But even with everything going on as planned (usually "nothing" instead of "everything":biggrin
we should have some sort of guard.Not to get angry at him, but to learn when he managed to come up being right and when he usually fails miserably... :frown:
Guilty as charged!!! I just thought that Nov 5 release date was awfully close to election date... Without looking too much into details. My bad.
Opps, I do agree with JRP3 too!
Nope, even recently it was scheduled for a day before election. If you would like to go into nuances, then you can figure out was it schedule before full moon or after.
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FalconNinetyD
Active Member
contaygious
Active Member
Would it be better to buy now or after earnings when it could potentially drop due to delays? I'm betting post earnings.
smorgasbord
Active Member
I think this rise before earnings is an ominous sign, as it increases expectations. There's no way earnings will be good. It seems really unlikely that Tesla did any better with production than their revised guidance, and there's a decent chance that they didn't quite make it. Add in the financial numbers are going to look bad and even though that part is expected, I think there will be disappointment and the stock will tank - temporarily at least.
My prediction, which isn't even worth the bandwidth used to send it to your computer, is that Tesla just missed production targets for the Q3, but has "caught up" during October. They'll keep the revised Q4 production target intact. Reservations will be near 15K total, and the number of reservations taken during Q3 will have been the highest ever. Stock will drop, with a recovery by early December when production rates are up a bit and non-Sigs start getting their cars.
Now that I've gone on record, the smart money is probably betting against me.
My prediction, which isn't even worth the bandwidth used to send it to your computer, is that Tesla just missed production targets for the Q3, but has "caught up" during October. They'll keep the revised Q4 production target intact. Reservations will be near 15K total, and the number of reservations taken during Q3 will have been the highest ever. Stock will drop, with a recovery by early December when production rates are up a bit and non-Sigs start getting their cars.
Now that I've gone on record, the smart money is probably betting against me.
I'd guess a little of both. The awards effect, I think, will be a spike, but ultimately what is going to drive the price is production increases, cash flow, and consistent quarters in these regards.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Agree with most of this. Though, the influx of Car of the Year awards seems to be what the market cares about right now, and then there is the election. Too much news flying around right now to trade, I've got my position set and my insurance in place. I'm just going to sit it out.
Zzzz...
Member
Not sure. But analytics I saw were placing EPS losses in .90 to .98 range.
With revenue projections from 48 to 51M usd.
I think that is already priced into share price. Will Tesla underperform or overperform? Toss of a coin. So Q3 release could drive share price up or down, but it is hard to tell...
Norbert
TSLA will win
I'd think that for investors two big questions are whether Tesla will be successful with the ramp up, and later with having a continued market for the Model S (the shorts betting against that). The two "auto of the year" awards should definitely increase confidence in the latter. However the shorts might be difficult to convince, and just be stubborn for a while.
Smorgasboard, I agree with what you are saying re messages on production targets, and reservations likely to come on earnings call. I don't agree with your expectations on the stock price.
I think we are bascially in the process of a momentum shift. Since the summer when it became clear that the first car or two produced was delivered a couple of month's before the company was really in a meaningful production phase there's been a cloud on the stock. throw in the reduced production numbers announced with secondary and momentum has been flat/negative.
the awards, cash added in secondary (short term hit to stock, but bigger safety net a long term positive for the viability of the company), Supercharger announcement, feedback of reservationists getting cars (I do believe analysts are reading these boards),and the tangibility that Tesla will inevitably get to 20M/year production rate (whether in December, Jan, or even Feb) are shifting momentum in my opinion. I think the earnings call will either modestly or significantly reaffirm perception that ramp-up will happen near inevitably, imperfect execution becoming irrelevant (and also inevitable in hindsight).
I say momentum continuing to shift if the call goes as you described. If, however, Tesla drops target, or describes supply issues that may disrupt production, obviously headwind for stock.
Here's why I am optimistic of momentum shift. Look at a one year chart of the stock. upper or mid 30s in March/April and July. the stock moved up earlier in the year based far more on expectation than tangible results compared to where we are today. in other words, if the market priced the stock in mid 30's before any cars produced, what's the market's view with actual production progressing, very enthusiastic customers with cars in hand, $200 million increase to cash safety net, Supercharger network response to range question, and Car of Year awards. I think the main reason price hasn't rebounded sooner was the second slow down in production (where delivery dates were missed last month) and poor communication about these issues. I think these have both been dealt with, and I think the call will solidify investor confidence about this. of course, if Romney wins the next day, knock on stock. but then again, Obama has some lead.
sublimaze1
8Dec2012 / Leeroy Jenkins
Not an experienced investor posting: If I wanted to purchase TSLA stock, and after reading this thread in a cursory manner, would it be better to buy tomorrow (Friday the 2nd), or wait until after Monday's call and consider a dip for a Tuesday purchase? Just asking.
Sublimaze1, I don't always get it right, but I've done a fair amount of investing... when I'm sitting on the fence I often split the difference, i.e. take amount I plan to buy, and by half now, leaving dry powder if stock goes down after announcement. I don't know about you, but my transaction cost is $7.
Excellent advice. Nobody knows how the investment call will be regarded, but getting stock tomorrow with a tight rope may not be a bad idea. You can always put in a stop loss amount and then let the market decide if you went in too soon and should have waited until after the 3rd quarter announcement.
smorgasbord
Active Member
No way. Tesla shorts are all from Missouri. They don't believe what Tesla management says. At best they think Tesla is playing fast and loose and can't keep all the balls in the air long enough. At worse, they think Elon is playing a shell game and will fail spectacularly. To them, imperfect execution is the tip of the "Tesla is going down" iceberg. They will look at Q3 actual deliveries, not Q4 or 2013 promises. They will look at Q3 revenue, not Q4 or 2013 profit margins. They will look at cancellations, not increases in reservations. They are all saying: "Show me, dont promise."
Basically, I don't think there will be anything in the Q3 shareholder letter or conference call to make a Missouri Short change his or her mind.
I'm invested in Tesla on the long side, but let's play Devil's advocate:
Tesla: "Model S is winning awards."
Short: "Chevy Volt won Automobile car of the year in 2011, and it's been a consistent money loser for GM."
Tesla: "We successfully raised cash in Q3."
Short: "Yeah, and you're going to need even more since you're not delivering enough cars."
Tesla: "Superchargers across the country."
Short: "That's going to cost you money you don't have to build, maintain, and power these things."
Tesla: "People getting their cars love them."
Short: "Yeah, all 249 of them."
Tesla: "We will produce 20K cars in 2013."
Short: "You couldn't even make your reduced shipment guidance for Q3."
Tesla: "Reservations are at their highest rate ever."
Short: "So are cancellations."
You get the idea. To the Shorts, it's all promises and futures and Tesla hasn't been all that great at keeping them in the past.
I'm not selling today in anticipation of buying back after the announcement, but I certainly won't be buying more before the announcement. (Of course that means now really is the best time to buy, since I'm usually wrong).
It is one thing when a company is producing 'things' that the public can't see being made and aren't invited to view. Tesla has shown off their factory and production line extensively. It is working and almost up to full speed.
How can you still live in Missery?
I think the stock will creep back to $35 during this run up and P reservations will be contacted next week to set up deliveries.
Recent awards should put the S in the lamestream media.
How can you still live in Missery?
I think the stock will creep back to $35 during this run up and P reservations will be contacted next week to set up deliveries.
Recent awards should put the S in the lamestream media.
Smorgasboard, I don't doubt that there are short true believers. I don't doubt that some will take a bunker mentality even if it means losing every penny they have.
and yes, those short true believers are part of what determines Telsa's market price, as are all buyers and sellers. to the rest of us buyers and sellers who impact the price of the stock but do not wear short true believer glasses (including shorts who are wise enough to act on reason rather than emotion), all the encouraging information you've repeated makes for a more attractive company than the one that was valued in the mid 30s earlier in the year. to be sure, there were shorts this summer when shares were trading at $36.
and yes, those short true believers are part of what determines Telsa's market price, as are all buyers and sellers. to the rest of us buyers and sellers who impact the price of the stock but do not wear short true believer glasses (including shorts who are wise enough to act on reason rather than emotion), all the encouraging information you've repeated makes for a more attractive company than the one that was valued in the mid 30s earlier in the year. to be sure, there were shorts this summer when shares were trading at $36.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Guess that depends on your definition of "almost." I thought they were an order of magnitude away from full speed.
No way, unless there are 500 built cars all waiting for 1 part that's arriving tomorrow.
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